Online Final Table Hand in Blinds Short-Stacked (2 Viewers)

[Moxie Mike]

If HERO rips it in, the best case scenario is the result is two folds. But how likely is that? We already know the CO is a clown, so even if HERO is ahead, he has to show down the best hand against at least one opponent or he's out of the tournament. Risk of ruin is a huge consideration here.

Generally, a 3x PFR is a large bet for this stage of the tournament. It may be normal for this table, but that might be a clue as to the strength of the opener's hand. Based on this alone, I suspect their hand is in the upper tier of their opening range.

I think these factors, and the read on the cutoff signifies that fold equity in this spot is ~10% at best.

Winning chips without confrontation is key at this stage of the tournament, especially when shortstacked. This situation doesn't meet that criteria.

Calling is obviously out of the question.

The case for folding is that HERO will still have ~12 BBs after posting the small blind. The chips HERO loses by posting the blinds can be re-acquired relatively easily in the next 3-4 hands.

So while there's a case for jamming, the lower variance play is better. Clear fold for me.

 

[WedgeRock]

What range do you assign a player raising from the HJ when it's folded to him with no prior info?

I do not think the average player has TT+ or AJ+ in this spot, but without knowing this guy, I probably give him more credit than I should. And what are the chances that DOOFUS has something? If he's not that good, he may not isolate shove JJ in that spot. DOOFUS waking up with a hand and playing it wrong preflop should be considered.

 

[grebe]

The case for folding is that HERO will still have ~12 BBs after posting the small blind. The chips HERO loses by posting the blinds can be re-acquired relatively easily in the next 3-4 hands.

The problem with this is the CLEAR chip leader is two spots to our left....which looms ominously for our shoving range button/cutoff. He can afford to look up our 12BB shoves light, and most likely will. Give me 10% fold equity, plus the chance to get it in good against DOOFUS and I like the shove even more.

 

[WedgeRock]

I think we need a poll... Fold v Jam. I can't count that high.

As soon as @DrStrange gets here, we'll know the right answer...

 

[Moxie Mike]

The problem with this is the CLEAR chip leader is two spots to our left....which looms ominously for our shoving range button/cutoff. He can afford to look up our 12BB shoves light, and most likely will.

A factor I overlooked - thanks for pointing that out. Absent any reads about how light this player defends, HERO's stealing range needs to include hands he doesn't hate being called with.

That said, I still think folding in this spot is preferable for all the other reasons.

 

[skylines]

I think we need a poll... Fold v Jam. I can't count that high.

As soon as @DrStrange gets here, we'll know the right answer...

POLL! POLL! POLL! POLL!

 

[CoachBudKilmer]

If you don't have much fold equity preflop (because the HJ would be getting 2-1 to call a shove with a drooler behind), why not call, closing the action and getting 4-1, and jam when you hit the flop (1/3 of the time)?

 

[Highli99]

I think we need a poll... Fold v Jam. I can't count that high.

As soon as @DrStrange gets here, we'll know the right answer...

Unlike many pokers spots this one seems “solveable” in a mathematical sense. It seems line there is a correct answer for long term EV.

 

[Legend5555]

Unlike many pokers spots this one seems “solveable” in a mathematical sense. It seems line there is a correct answer for long term EV.

But you'd still need somewhat accurate ranges for the other players.

 

[legonick]

How fast are the blinds going up, and what do they go up to? I feel like you are most often beat here, although your read as one of them being a loose, passive player means you are in better shape. If the blinds are going up a lot and fast, scary-man might call you easier. If it's slow and small, your shove might take him off his hand.

 

[Anthony Martino]

How fast are the blinds going up, and what do they go up to? I feel like you are most often beat here, although your read as one of them being a loose, passive player means you are in better shape. If the blinds are going up a lot and fast, scary-man might call you easier. If it's slow and small, your shove might take him off his hand.

I believe it was 15 min blinds and next lvl 2/4k

 

[Anthony Martino]

Ok, can't wait any longer for Doc Strange

Hero opts to shove. If there wasn't a cold-caller behind the raiser we might fold

But given our hands removal, and the possibility that the cold caller removes some of the raisers cards as well, I felt I had fold equity or would get a shot to double up with some dead money in the middle

There's already 9k+9k+3k+3k+1500 = 25.5k in the pot

If we cold call, we have roughly a pot-sized bet going to the flop, but allow both opponents to realize some of their equity

We could fold and "wait for a better spot", but I felt the possibility to increase our stack by more than 50% if we get folds, or have a shot to double against only one hand with dead money was worth it

We tip it in, original raiser snap reshoves (uh-oh) and the cold caller shows and folds

Original raiser has Aces, and the flop of QT5 gives us a couple outs, but the runout is 5J and we bust in 9th

 

[Josh Kifer]

Ok, can't wait any longer for Doc Strange

Hero opts to shove. If there wasn't a cold-caller behind the raiser we might fold

But given our hands removal, and the possibility that the cold caller removes some of the raisers cards as well, I felt I had fold equity or would get a shot to double up with some dead money in the middle

There's already 9k+9k+3k+3k+1500 = 25.5k in the pot

If we cold call, we have roughly a pot-sized bet going to the flop, but allow both opponents to realize some of their equity

We could fold and "wait for a better spot", but I felt the possibility to increase our stack by more than 50% if we get folds, or have a shot to double against only one hand with dead money was worth it

We tip it in, original raiser snap reshoves (uh-oh) and the cold caller shows and folds

Original raiser has Aces, and the flop of QT5 gives us a couple outs, but the runout is 5J and we bust in 9th

TOLD YOU. BUT NO. LETS NOT LISTEN TO JOSH.

 

[Anthony Martino]

TOLD YOU. BUT NO. LETS NOT LISTEN TO JOSH.

WHERE WERE YOU WHEN I NEEDED U MOST????!!!

 

[Josh Kifer]

WHERE WERE YOU WHEN I NEEDED U MOST????!!!

SITTING HERE. IN IDAHO. NO CALLS. NO TEXTS. NO PM'S. THIS IS ON YOUUUUUUU

 

[WedgeRock]

Look at the bright side, at least you read you hand correctly.

 

[DrStrange]

DrStrange is a poor tournament player. Don't know why his advice would be much more than random lip flapping.

But is case anyone is interested, DrStrange is in the fold camp.

 

[legonick]

Big-scary had it, yup. Not surprised. I don't hate the shove there, but hate it against AA! LOL.

 

[Legend5555]

I think we all know who must weigh in here...

 

[Anthony Martino]

I think we all know who must weigh in here...

View attachment 725423

This gif should say "an idiot hot dog"

 

[Legend5555]

hot dog

I see what you did there.

Pop tarts are ravioli too.

 

[grebe]

So I lost?

Damnit! Off to play in lose a tournament now, I guess.

 

[Zr1]

Easy fold for any decent tournament player. First in at this stage of the tournament is ABC poker. 2 players already in before us....

 

[Anthony Martino]

Easy fold for any decent tournament player. First in at this stage of the tournament is ABC poker. 2 players already in before us....

I feel attacked!

 

[Zr1]

I feel attacked!

Lol sorry! We want to survive and play uncontested pots. We want less people. We want to jam when first in and have fold equity. Of course we are going to get called eventually and have to race but there is almost 0 chance we are getting it in with the best hand in that spot. 0% chance that both fold.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Lol sorry! We want to survive and play uncontested pots. We want less people. We want to jam when first in and have fold equity. Of course we are going to get called eventually and have to race but there is almost 0 chance we are getting it in with the best hand in that spot. 0% chance that both fold.

Original raiser can't have 66 there? and cold caller had KQ and folded it

 

[Zr1]

maybe? Even if they had those hands do you think KQ is folding here enough? From my experience kq is calling at 50A% of the time. Of 66 just playa you are a small dog. Equity doesnt really apply much here. You are putting your tournament at risk knowing you have the worst hand. the main point is survival. Protect your stack. When you do jam give your sef a chance to win without seeing a flop

 

[Tarheel4Life]

Yell YOLO and then fold while farting really, really remarkably loudly.

 

[Anthony Martino]

maybe? Even if they had those hands do you think KQ is folding here enough? From my experience kq is calling at 50A% of the time. Of 66 just playa you are a small dog. Equity doesnt really apply much here. You are putting your tournament at risk knowing you have the worst hand. the main point is survival. Protect your stack. When you do jam give your sef a chance to win without seeing a flop

You think I have zero fold equity here?

If the original raiser doesn't show up with AA here, you think they are risking half their stack with 66 or even AJ with a cold-caller in-between still to act?

And if they do fold and the cold-caller is willing to commit almost their entire stack with KQ there, we are roughly 60/40 with bonus dead money to double up

Put yourself in the other guys shoes. If you're the original raiser holding 66 or AJ, what do you do when you have to risk half your stack with another player behind?

Or if you are the guy with KQ off and the original raiser folds and this is for almost your entire stack?

I just think dealing in absolutes here, like I have zero fold equity against opponents ranges here, is wrong

 

[Zr1]

You think I have zero fold equity here?

If the original raiser doesn't show up with AA here, you think they are risking half their stack with 66 or even AJ with a cold-caller in-between still to act?

And if they do fold and the cold-caller is willing to commit almost their entire stack with KQ there, we are roughly 60/40 with bonus dead money to double up

Put yourself in the other guys shoes. If you're the original raiser holding 66 or AJ, what do you do when you have to risk half your stack with another player behind?

Or if you are the guy with KQ off and the original raiser folds and this is for almost your entire stack?

I just think dealing in absolutes here, like I have zero fold equity against opponents ranges here, is wrong

You are right dealing in absolutes is wrong. so is assigning them hole cards that allow justification for a jam. Regardless Its generally a bad play whether you agree or not. I also think you are giving the other players too much credit. Most players in this price range dont think how we would think. I think the Guy with pair is calling all day and guy with kq is calling more than enough to run away. We can disagree on this i could be off with my thinking but doesnt change the fact that being first in when you jam in these spots is the correct way to play