PAHWM - $1/$3 NL @ Resorts World - KdJd UTG (2 Viewers)

[TheDuke]

Check behind. No value in a bet here.

Doubt you're going to get a better hand to fold and worse hands will just muck.

 

[boltonguy]

I just put this in Snowie. Interesting Snowie bets turn (probably owing to the capped range Snowie is giving BB which differes from the range we are giving BB) and then as played (X/X turn) mixes river X 93% and bet 1/4 pot 7%

 

[Senzrock]

I think there are two scenarios to consider:

1. opponent has a losing hand. If we bet, what losing (worse) hands are we targeting to call? If we can't identify enough worse hands that call, betting to get a fold isnt worth the possibility of putting more money in the pot IMHO. V leads into 4 players which has to be strong for a weak, passive player. If she has never raised preflop we should give her all premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. She may also lead with 77 and KQ. All of these hands may lead because of the fear of it X around and the straight coming in. Finally, but maybe less likely are KJ/KT with a BDFD. So then the straight comes in and she X. Even all of those hands in the donking range lose to the straight so a X makes sense. Hero X behind. River is a brick. I can see a passive player with a set or 2 pair X river here to give Hero a chance to bluff. In V's seat with a second/third/fourth best hand OOP I would probably rather X/C and bluffcatch (at a cheaper price) than to bet and have to call a raise (more expensive way to get to SD) or fold. Medium strength OOP player - it is probably GTO to X turn and river here to let IP player bluff. So I think from an unknown passive low stakes player we cant discount all of these hands {AA, KK, QQ, AK, 77, KQ and KJ/KT with BDFD). So are we just targeting the very bottom of that range?

Will she call with KJ/KT? It would have to be a pretty small bet, like $40.

2. opponent has a winning hand. If we bet, opponent either folds, calls or raises with a winning (better) hand. What better hands would opponent play in this manner? Above we just identified a large number of hands that crush us that could play this way. To get them to fold we probably have to bet large, like $100+ to get KQ to fold. But there are a lot of those hands and KQ is at the bottom.

I think it is more likely that opponent either has a winning hand and will call or a losing hand that will fold - so we wont see value from a bet unless we go very large - and we risk losing that bet if she's sticky.

I X behind here.

What winning hands does opponent have that are (1) checking both turn AND river and (2) will call a shove?

I like a shove on the flop & turn. As played, check behind on river is fine, even though I probably prefer a shove here as well.

 

[boltonguy]

In my home game I have seen guys overcall and go multi-way with AA, KK, QQ, AK. I have been surprised but they have never really read a poker book or anything. And many of them are sticky. I pretty much stopped bluffing half the guys as even if I jam I'll get called by bottom pair. So it's pretty villain-specific but I think jamming here would be a huge risk. It's not like the SPR is huge here (it's about 1) which may make V stickier than if she had $800 and you jam. This is not 6-max fast fold online so anything can happen and I think at these stakes it often does! Heck she could have pocket sixes.

 

[Legend5555]

Resorts World
$1/$3 w/ $400 cap 8-handed

Villain in BB $220 -
White Female, late 40s to early mid 50s. Bought in for $100. Playing very straightforward thus far. Have seen her lead out on multiple occasions even when she did not have the betting lead. Never seen her raise pre flop. Only been at the table for about an hour. Quiet and keeping to herself.

HERO LJ $975 (covers table) -
Has been running hot. Had several big hands at beginning of session and got paid. Shown down many winners. Made one big bluff that no one saw. Winning image. At table for around 3 hours. Had been chatting some with neighbors at the table, but generally not driving the conversation.

Game is currently 7-handed.

UTG straddle to $6.
HERO raises to $20 LJ with
CO calls.
B calls.
VILLAIN (BB) calls.

Pot: $83 after rake
Eff stack: $200
Flop:

VILLAIN leads for $40.
HERO calls.
CO and B fold.

Pot: $163
Eff stack: $160
Turn:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO checks.

Pot: $163
Eff stack: $160
Turn:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $50.
Villain thinks for about 10 seconds and calls with .

I never considered raising flop as with the people behind me, I didn't want to take a chance of them waking up with something since they were deeper than the VILLAIN. I though she likely had a worse K, but could occasionally have all the 2 pairs. And maybe 77. Really don't know about the set and I didn't see anything to indicate if she would lead that strong a hand or not.

On turn, maybe I can still get value by betting. But the way she had been playing thus far, she seemed like she would probably fold a weak K. And she was capable of leading and having all the two pair here. Granted it means she could also have a bunch of junk, but she never lead a draw or worse than TP as far as I could tell. I could easily be putting too much weight on limited info, but I do tend to go with my instincts on live reads probably more than I should when I play live. I figured the A was a bit of a truth serum card in that if she checks river to me too, I think KJ is almost always the best hand. Regardless, jamming never even crossed my mind as I can't imagine getting called by worse often enough.

River to me seemed like a trivial value / fold to the unlikely raise. Sure I'll get value owned sometimes when she decided to play KQ or AK oddly. But that's just how it goes sometimes. They way I saw it, she would basically never believe at this point that I have an A because she would likely never think someone with an A would check back turn. Players like this just never think to check back strongish hands in position. I thought 1/3rd pot was about the right size to get paid off by worse Ks. Maybe I could have gone bigger given she may not ever believe I have her beat after the turn check back. But it seems that so often these people that buy in for $100 then run it up a bit are really hesitant to call off big bets or all ins with marginal holdings. Even when that marginal holding is actually quite strong given the situation.

It's interesting to me that @Senzrock thinks I could have gotten it all in on the flop if it was heads up. I probably would have if it was AK, and maybe KJ isn't that much different given the scenario. In my experience though, I just don't see people being all that willing to get it in here when they lead with a marginal TP type hand.

I can't remember if this was before of after this hand, but there was another against her where I raised AQ pre and went 4 ways. She checked, I checked, and a late position player bet half pot on TJ5r. She called. I called. Turn checks through. River comes a Q and she just leads 85% pot. I no joke snap folded. Late position folded and she showed K9o for the straight. Total exploit as I can't imagine I'm supposed to fold there very often with my specific hand given I called the flop thinking more than just my gutshot was good. But her snap lead and the sizing just set off alarms in my head.

 

[Senzrock]

Interesting hand. It really felt like KT the entire time although it might be fun to think about how we could have pushed villain off of KQ on the turn/river (or IF this would even have been possible!)

 

[Legend5555]

Interesting hand. It really felt like KT the entire time although it might be fun to think about how we could have pushed villain off of KQ on the turn/river (or IF this would even have been possible!)

That's tough in reference to KQ. I don't think we were deep enough to pull it off in general. But you just never know with these types of players. Sometimes they fold thinking you must have AK. Sometimes they call because "two pair." Sometimes they sigh call. I didn't have a good enough read for that insight. But I felt good enough in my read with her to make the thin value bet.

 

[boltonguy]

well played. glad you squeaked out some thin value!

 

[JustinInMN]

Wow, very nice hand.

The donk on the flop is weird and I think puts villain on something. I think many lesser Kx are in villains range given he could be calling widely against a steal raise. Depending on how loose, maybe down to K8? I don't think AK is there. I do absolutely believe villain could have KQ or 77 here, though so you still need to treat this with some caution.

Still opening KJs and making a king on the flop I don't think folding is an option, but it really seems like a thin spot to go for value raise here. A value raise is only good for hero if villain has exactly KT (and maybe K9, K8) here. Maybe villain is donking as loose as Qx here? In that case I might feel better about a value raise. However, I think I just like this hand for a flop call, villain has at least enough lesser Kx to justify a call, but also enough really strong value in range where the raise is too risky for not a lot of reward. If hero raises, he will probably have to fold this to a three-bet in my opinion. Would hero rather do that or just flat and see what develops?

On the turn, my instinct is this would be a check all day. I don't necessarily think the A helps villain that often given the lack of a pre-flop raise and the turn-check. But it's not enough to scare away the two-pair-plus portion of villain's range, and now hero has picked up a gutter to draw against that part of villains range. So I think I prefer a check.

If I were to build a case to bet. I think villain would be betting the turn on just about anything he had containing an ace. Hero could "represent" an ace by betting here clearly, but I don't know how that helps hero. Villain would still be calling with the strongest part of her range here which beats KJ anyway, or maybe folding hands from which you can get value, the lesser Kx hands.

Given hero decided to go for thin value on the river, I like the turn check even more. I think it's easier for villain to justify a call with his holding, which again is about the only thing hero could be "targeting" for value. Also having checked the turn may have made her curious about whether or not hero has an ace, betting the turn, he may have just decided to give it up there.

So very well played hand, I think the river bet was somewhat risky if hero thinks he could be slow-playing a two-pair-plus hand on the turn. But if she doesn't have that play in herself, then you have effectively capped villain's range and KJ is actually about the best you could put villain on, so maybe not a lot of risk and worth targeting even a small sliver of potential villain payoff.

From villains perspective, she flopped top pair against a possible steal raise. A lot of hero's range may be Kx, but also a lot of Qx, or Ax gutshots, or maybe middle pairs that hero might station. In other words, hero may have a lot of check backs including to decent drawing hands and villain doesn't want to allow that. And in truth, hero probably has way more of that than actual Kx hands, but in this case, hero does have the king as we know. The ace then may hit a lot of hero's flop calling range, maybe even to aces-up so she decides to slow down. Hero shouldn't be as worried about the ace improving villain after the turn check, but still a prudent check behind. On the river, the bet after the check turn seems pretty polarizing. Hero's either made something like aces-up or he's trying to buy it. I am guessing villain was surprised to see he had been one-pipped on this river bet. I think the check on the turn really made this happen.

So again, well done @Legend5555

 

[JustinInMN]

It's interesting to me that @Senzrock thinks I could have gotten it all in on the flop if it was heads up. I probably would have if it was AK, and maybe KJ isn't that much different given the scenario. In my experience though, I just don't see people being all that willing to get it in here when they lead with a marginal TP type hand.

It's possible, but I think the difference is KJ is in villains range and only leads to a chop when you hold KJ, but puts you in great shape when you hold AK. Also AK has a little more chance to draw out on KQ, KJ is dead to runners against that hand. So yes, technically AK and KJ are one pip apart on this flop, but I think dynamics change enough where it's okay to play KJ more cautiously.