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PAHWM: $2/5/10 QQ (3 Viewers)

The hand
Hero has black Qs in the Small Blind.

**The button is talking with the chip runner who is bringing him his 3k in chips so he misses his straddle. This is the only time all night he doesn't.

Preflop:
MP limp, CO makes it $15, button flats, Hero makes it $70 to go, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop ($165): :jh::9h::8d:
Hero checks, Button Bets $175, Hero calls.

Turn ($515): :5s:
Hero ???
 
Not sure there is ANY turn bet I'm not calling. Also not convinced that a check-raise isn't in order, but Villain is likely to reshove to put hero to the test.
 
I agree once hero takes the check the flop line, we have to play to station. Instead of hoping villian can pay off second best, hero is playing to hope villian will bluff/thin value bet for 3 streets. Leaning now will scare bluffs/middling value.

I think BG is right on this turn we are check calling the universe. And I am expecting the river to go check-check a fair bit of the time.
 
I gather that the consensus is Hero does stack off with pocket queens unimproved? That is two pot sized bets from villain. Check/call turn then check/call river catch semi-bluff and double up.

I'm not that optimistic, but let's hope for the best for Hero -=- DrStrange

PS For what is it worth, that turn is almost the safest thing he could hope for. Only 6 7 makes a winner - that and strange things like pocket fives or 8 5
 
The hand
Hero has black Qs in the Small Blind.

**The button is talking with the chip runner who is bringing him his 3k in chips so he misses his straddle. This is the only time all night he doesn't.

Preflop:
MP limp, CO makes it $15, button flats, Hero makes it $70 to go, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop ($165): :jh::9h::8d:
Hero checks, Button Bets $175, Hero calls.

Turn ($515): :5s:
Hero checks, Button bets $325, Hero ???
 
Call. Fade six outs (any 7 or Q) on the river ftw. I think he has TT.
 
Call. I'm late to this party, but overall I think the line so far has been good (could see an argument for c-betting small on the flop, but checking is okay too). There are 8 combinations of QT you're losing to. There are three combos each of JJ, 99, and 88. Three combos of J9 suited, two combos of J8 suited, 4 combos of 67 suited and 4 combos of T7 suited if we think those are in BTN's calling range (normally they probably aren't, but maybe this guy's tilting after stacking off on the flush hand). So maybe 30 combinations that you're clearly behind, and I think we can likely discount the probability of the flopped-straight combos due to the large bet sizing.

There's also 6 combinations of TT, 12 combinations of AJ, 12 combinations of KJ, 6 combinations of QJ, 16 combinations of AT, 12 combinations of JT (3 suited), and 3 combinations of T9 suited that I think would all be betting similarly and that you beat. Maybe even some AQ and KQ (certainly AQhh and KQhh at least) and almost certainly any ace-high flush draw (A8hh, plus many well-studied players these days are playing wheel-draw suited cards like A2-A5), so that's at least 7 more combinations. I just think there's way too many hands you can get value from to give up here. A lot of players are going to read your flop-check after the 3-bet as signaling AK/AQ and apply pressure. You're going to lose sometimes but you're clearly overfolding if you give this up.
 
I think at this point Hero should be done calling. It’s time to fold or shove all in.

If Hero feels he from his reads he is ahead right now lets get it in now. He most likely has some decent equity that he he will call off with but could shut down with on the river. At the same time we don’t what cards he is looking for to make his hand and Hero likely will have to pay off on the river anyways now if we call.

I don’t expect he will fold a lot of his hands, but he will fold some hands that have equity. If we can take this pot down now even some of the time it is worth it.
 
Rhodeman77 said:
I think at this point Hero should be done calling. It’s time to fold or shove all in.
Click to expand...

When I first read this I thought it was crazy, after all Hero started the hand with $2400 so should have over $2100 behind at this point, and even a pot-sized raise would only be to $1100ish. But it is true that there are a lot of gross river cards that will make things uncomfortable (any ace, any king, the two remaining Q's, any jack, any 9, any 8, or any heart, even a 6 or 7 is unappealing). That's more than half the deck. Also, while there are many hands that Hero is beating that may fold to a shove (AJ, KJ, TT), in fairness many of those one-pair hands will check back most rivers anyway so there may be no more value to get from them. So if you want to save yourself a filthy decision on the river, you could conceivably jam here. And you're mostly going to get called by two-pair or better, but your overbet is going to look pretty polarized so I think you could occasionally get hero-called by a hand like AJ that thinks you could be semibluffing with AKhh.

I don't think folding is an option for the reasons mentioned above. But if you do call, the pot will be $1165 with like $1800 behind, so you'd better know what you plan to do depending on which cards come if he bets the river.
 
^^^
CR here is definitely an interesting concept. Pot would be ~$3000 with Button facing about $1800 to call. Not the odds that most draws need to continue so it should fold them out.

Those that are advocating a call here on the turn, what's your plan for various river cards?
 
Any face card or Ace on the river is check / fold. Except for the queen of diamonds as the river, in which case you'd check / call.

Any heart on the river is check / fold.

Any card from deuce to nine that's not a heart is check/call.

Any non heart ten is bet/call.
 
I think calling on the turn here is the best play.

With this line I am checking almost any river. I'm also calling any good river, and evaluating and probably going with my read on bad rivers.

If a heart, an ace, king, queen, 7 or Jack hit the river you just have to try and make a read. I'm not too worried about an 8 or a 9.

Only river I'm probably leading out on is a non heart 10.
 
Rhodeman77 said:
If Hero feels he from his reads he is ahead right now lets get it in now. He most likely has some decent equity that he he will call off with but could shut down with on the river. At the same time we don’t what cards he is looking for to make his hand and Hero likely will have to pay off on the river anyways now if we call.

I don’t expect he will fold a lot of his hands, but he will fold some hands that have equity. If we can take this pot down now even some of the time it is worth it.
Click to expand...

I think I am convinced. If hero calls he is probably never leading the river without making a straight, and this lead won't be called often.


Payback said:
Those that are advocating a call here on the turn, what's your plan for various river cards?
Click to expand...

I was going to call just about anything save an A or K, but I think @Rhodeman77 has convinced me to Jam here.

I think there is hope the Aj, kj, and at type hands will call some of the time, and hero will benefit by folding out the equity the gutters and pair draws have. Again we will take our lumps against monsters, I said that advocating for the flop c bet, but I think there is enough upside to the raise here.
 
Payback said:
^^^
CR here is definitely an interesting concept. Pot would be ~$3000 with Button facing about $1800 to call. Not the odds that most draws need to continue so it should fold them out.

Those that are advocating a call here on the turn, what's your plan for various river cards?
Click to expand...
The main reason I'm inclined to just call is I have a medium-strength hand and I'd prefer to just play for a medium-sized pot. Sometimes we have a tendency to give the villain too much credit, treating him as a clairvoyant wizard who will fire on 100% of bad rivers for us and make us miserable. But realistically, based on the action and this board, the Button should still have a lot of hands that will dislike many rivers and check back. Any made hand that is not a flush draw should potentially be concerned about Hero having AKhh or AQhh, which is obviously just two combinations but it would make sense. There's around 100 combinations of hands that are at least plausible for the villain mentioned in post 41 above, and many of them are marginal made hands that should want to just get to showdown after getting called on 2 streets. The board is wet enough that even sets and two-pair hands may want to check it through on the river. Even the flopped straight isn't going to be too happy if a heart comes on the river.

That's part of why I lean toward the call despite the intrigue of the turn shove, because I think there are hands that we lose to that would call the shove but may check back on most rivers. For example, J9, J8, and probably all of the flopped sets will often check back if they don't fill up on the river, but they're good enough hands to probably call the shove. I'd rather lose the minimum to those hands if I can.

I'm checking 100% of rivers unless the miracle 10 hits, and the hands that will bet after we check are going to be polarized between nut hands and missed draws. I suppose we'll see what the river card ends up being, but my guess is I'll find myself check-calling a lot of rivers because there are so many missed draws that will barrel away.
 
I'm nearly convinced that jamming the turn may be the right play here. Also pretty sure I wouldn't have the heart to do it myself. ;) Easy to spend other people's money.

I think Villain's flop over-bet may have been to protect against the flush draw. When it got called, he slowed down a bit on the turn. I'm not sure he can stand the heat if it gets cranked up. (But then he did snap-call that previous jam with not-the-nuts on a flushed board). Knowing what he folded there (big hand or a draw) would help a lot in making this decision.
 
The hand
Hero has black Qs in the Small Blind.

**The button is talking with the chip runner who is bringing him his 3k in chips so he misses his straddle. This is the only time all night he doesn't.

Preflop:
MP limp, CO makes it $15, button flats, Hero makes it $70 to go, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop ($165): :jh::9h::8d:
Hero checks, Button Bets $175, Hero calls.

Turn ($515): :5s:
Hero checks, Button bets $325, Hero calls.

River ($1,165): :2c:
Hero ???
 
Great run out.

Or maybe horrible runout if he has a set Lol

I'm checking and calling any reasonable sized bet. I'm also ok if it goes check check.
 
The river is a lose lose situation. If hero bets, it is to prevent the one pair jacks hands from checking. But if hero bets and villian rips it he is polarized.

Checking and calling is probably safe because hero can beat a good hunk of value.

Really wish hero just led the flop.
 

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