PAHWM - KK UTG (1 Viewer)

[tabletalker7]

No offense taken!

Does 10J call an overbet on the turn? Even JJ might start to get the hint too, as my range should be snug UTG and I would have bet twice.

Jacks and J 10 make that call if they think your overbet is you trying to buy it. The draws you were afraid of can't make that call, since they have nothing yet themselves. It's possible they thought they were slow playing 44 but in all reality they would have seen you overbet the turn and come back over the top then. The way villain played this, it stinks of J 10 spades and they honestly thought their 2 pair was good.

 

[Ben8257]

Jacks and J 10 make that call if they think your overbet is you trying to buy it. The draws you were afraid of can't make that call, since they have nothing yet themselves. It's possible they thought they were slow playing 44 but in all reality they would have seen you overbet the turn and come back over the top then. The way villain played this, it stinks of J 10 spades and they honestly thought their 2 pair was good.

No way they could call with AQ of spades? I agree zero chance we were up against 89 here... but perfect flop for AQ spades... the spade didn't get there but Broadway did...

Hero has $16.50 invested even with river bet... anyone that says he is priced in to call... WTF? Villan had $55 to start so we have to call $38.50 when we have $16.50 invested... this is heads up 1:1 on additional funds invested... terrible odds the way I see it.

We can all be Monday morning quarter backs and say "ohh yeah he definitely had two pair... you made a terrible fold!" That's why we bet light on the river so we are not 50% plus and thus "pot committed" we still have room to get away from out 3rd nut hand.

You're right AQs did not have raise equity but definitely call with that many outs! I believe he hit one of his outs with that shove. We didn't like the river card... made a stab bet at it... got our hands caught in the cookie jar. Run away was the right move for me!

 

[tabletalker7]

No way they could call with AQ of spades?

The flop, yes. The overbet on the turn, no. You show me someone who at the poker table normally calls an overbet with one card left and 12 outs and I will show you a poker player in significant debt. Calling that overbet shows they thought he was trying to buy it, which brings me right back to jacks or J 10. I suppose K 10 is possible, but I don't like K 10 normally and tend not to play it so I tend to forget other people do like it and do play it.

 

[tabletalker7]

One other thing I noticed. You bet $7.50 on the turn and $6 on the river. It is also very possible that villain saw you lowering the bet on the river as a sign of weakness and tried to jump all over it. I wonder if villain still shoves if you bet $12.50 on that river ..........

 

[perfectjawnz]

The flop, yes. The overbet on the turn, no. You show me someone who at the poker table normally calls an overbet with one card left and 12 outs and I will show you a poker player in significant debt. Calling that overbet shows they thought he was trying to buy it, which brings me right back to jacks or J 10. I suppose K 10 is possible, but I don't like K 10 normally and tend not to play it so I tend to forget other people do like it and do play it.

AQss is 100% calling the turn vs an overbet. Are you saying you never call overbets without a pair+? AQss has double draws to the nuts, if you're folding AQss and river brings the flush, V jams, what type of hands are you calling with?


I still think this is a call OTR though

 

[tabletalker7]

AQss is 100% calling the turn vs an overbet. Are you saying you never call overbets without a pair+? AQss has double draws to the nuts, if you're folding AQss and river brings the flush, V jams, what type of hands are you calling with?


I still think this is a call OTR though

If you are calling an overbet with 12 outs you will be putting a lot of kids through college, but none of those kids will be yours. Compute your pot odds. Call $7.50 to win $13.50 ~ 55%. AsQs with this board versus just AK (not even the set just slick) ~ 27%. You keep making those calls and you lose WAY MORE than you win. That's what made the overbet on the turn so intelligent. It instantly makes all the draws garbage. The only reason to call it is if you think the hero is buying it, and the draws can't even call that cause they have NOTHING, just the draws.

 

[tabletalker7]

.

 

[perfectjawnz]

If you are calling an overbet with 12 outs you will be putting a lot of kids through college, but none of those kids will be yours. Compute your pot odds. Call $7.50 to win $13.50 ~ 55%. AsQs with this board versus just AK (not even the set just slick) ~ 27%. You keep making those calls and you lose WAY MORE than you win. That's what made the overbet on the turn so intelligent. It instantly makes all the draws garbage. The only reason to call it is if you think the hero is buying it, and the draws can't even call that cause they have NOTHING, just the draws.

you are not calculating implied odds here. If you call with AQss, and V has AK, KK, TT you are going to stack them.

would you look at that, +5BB/100 calling with AQss. Its also calling AJss, 98ss, even 86ss and 65ss

 

[perfectjawnz]

Also, you're talking about not calling with AQss (12 outs), but saying JT or JJ should call? so two hands with.... zero outs?

Are you sure you've put any kids through college?

 

[tabletalker7]

Also, you're talking about not calling with AQss (12 outs), but saying JT or JJ should call? so two hands with.... zero outs?

Are you sure you've put any kids through college?

Do you know how to read? I said those hands would call if they thought the hero was trying to buy it, which is the only reason to call the overbet here. I would consider various K ? hands but with hero holding cowboys I seriously doubt it. Personally, if someone wants to bet 125% of the pot I better be holding something serious to call or I just toss them in and not care. This isn't PLO, so you can't pile up enough draws to make the draws good.

you are not calculating implied odds here

You know, every single person who talked to me about implied odds and then sat at the casino at the same table as me, well, yeah thing didn't work out too well for them. That's the beauty of playing live. You don't have a computer to give you an excuse to do something dumb. Against a random hand I like AsQs here, but the preflop raise combined with the flop bet tells me I am up against at least top pair. The turn overbet ........ hell just a pot sized bet on the turn makes folding AsQs here easy. I have listened to too many people complain about how implied odds said their play was perfect, but they were losing like crazy. Implied odds works on hypothetical situations. Pot odds deals with reality.

 

[grebe]

No offense taken!

Does 10J call an overbet on the turn? Even JJ might start to get the hint too, as my range should be snug UTG and I would have bet twice.

Maybe not TJ, but I am not folding JJ to anything. I would 3 bet both TT and JJ pre though...

 

[grebe]

AQss should also be a 3 bet pre.

 

[tabletalker7]

AQss should also be a 3 bet pre.

I know I am a sick bastard, but if I had AQss I would have also led out on that flop.

 

[dmoney]

@tabletalker7 @grebe I actually would have preferred any sort of aggression from Villain - would have happily gotten it in pre flop, flop, or turn. I think part of the trouble with villain's line for me was there was no play back at me until the river - just checking and calling.

 

[perfectjawnz]

Do you know how to read? I said those hands would call if they thought the hero was trying to buy it, which is the only reason to call the overbet here. I would consider various K ? hands but with hero holding cowboys I seriously doubt it. Personally, if someone wants to bet 125% of the pot I better be holding something serious to call or I just toss them in and not care. This isn't PLO, so you can't pile up enough draws to make the draws good.

You know, every single person who talked to me about implied odds and then sat at the casino at the same table as me, well, yeah thing didn't work out too well for them. That's the beauty of playing live. You don't have a computer to give you an excuse to do something dumb. Against a random hand I like AsQs here, but the preflop raise combined with the flop bet tells me I am up against at least top pair. The turn overbet ........ hell just a pot sized bet on the turn makes folding AsQs here easy. I have listened to too many people complain about how implied odds said their play was perfect, but they were losing like crazy. Implied odds works on hypothetical situations. Pot odds deals with reality.

So I ask once again, can I overbet you with my entire range in this spot and you have zero calls? ("Unless you think I'm buying it")? And if you're folding KK on the river, once again, what are you calling with besides AQ? Go look up MDF and read some before talking about thing that have nothing grounded in the math behind poker.

Donking on this board?? Tell me you know zero about the poker theory without telling me you know nothing. But that's beyond the scope of this thread, if you thinking this is a donkable board, I'm not gonna argue this or any strategy with you.

AQss should also be a 3 bet pre.

3betting pure is not the highest EV choice with AQss at most stakes, depends quite a bit on rake.
Most people are way less polar in BB than they should be, esp vs UTG opening.

@tabletalker7 @grebe I actually would have preferred any sort of aggression from Villain - would have happily gotten it in pre flop, flop, or turn. I think part of the trouble with villain's line for me was there was no play back at me until the river - just checking and calling.

that's the beauty of being in position. IP controls the action, and can just call down nutted draws, where as OOP has to rely slightly more on fold equity and bluffing.

 

[grebe]

3betting pure is not the highest EV choice with AQss at most stakes, depends quite a bit on rake.
Most people are way less polar in BB than they should be, esp vs UTG opening.

I really didnt think to go back and look at positions...considering hero opened from UTG, you are correct that AQs should be a call in this instance. If the raise was from MP on, I change my stance back to 3 bet.

I am curious as to what you mean by 3 betting "pure" with AQ at most stakes, and the depends on rake statement though.

 

[perfectjawnz]

I really didnt think to go back and look at positions...considering hero opened from UTG, you are correct that AQs should be a call in this instance. If the raise was from MP on, I change my stance back to 3 bet.

I am curious as to what you mean by 3 betting "pure" with AQ at most stakes, and the depends on rake statement though.

if you're playing higher rake, you should be playing slightly tighter and more polar preflop, especially as blinds. Because you're losing more to rake, you want to try and get people out before preflop and to do that, you want to flat OOP less, and 3bet pre with more of your continuing range.

This is different than at higher stakes, where rake is a lower % of the pot, so you're incentivized to call wider pre and see more flops where you can maybe hit strong hands

I will say my understanding on preflop ranges dependent on rake is a topic I'm not super familiar with - it's super complex, and is not fully solved yet due to the insane hardware requirements. I've done some light reading, but haven't really gone super in depth in the theory, as it's pretty marginal in most cases.

 

[grebe]

if you're playing higher rake, you should be playing slightly tighter and more polar preflop, especially as blinds. Because you're losing more to rake, you want to try and get people out before preflop and to do that, you want to flat OOP less, and 3bet pre with more of your continuing range.

This is different than at higher stakes, where rake is a lower % of the pot, so you're incentivized to call wider pre and see more flops where you can maybe hit strong hands

I will say my understanding on preflop ranges dependent on rake is a topic I'm not super familiar with - it's super complex, and is not fully solved yet due to the insane hardware requirements. I've done some light reading, but haven't really gone super in depth in the theory, as it's pretty marginal in most cases.

Soooooo......3 bet AQ then.

Sorry, but if you are trying to convince me that somehow AQ should be a fold pre from the bb because of rake.....you are not going to win me over.

 

[perfectjawnz]

FWIW, solver is saying that calling AQss even vs a 250% overbet OTT is still making 1.84bb/100 hands, take that as you will

 

[perfectjawnz]

Soooooo......3 bet AQ then.

Sorry, but if you are trying to convince me that somehow AQ should be a fold pre from the bb because of rake.....you are not going to win me over.

no, I'm not trying to say that at all lol, I'm saying it's most likely a call preflop. Not a 3bet. AQo should be pure calling and AQs can be 3! at a frequency. OOP really doesn't want to 3! many offsuit hands since they're much harder to play.

In terms of polarity, even QQ is indifferent to 3betting and calling BB vs UTG rfi, assuming proper play. KK+/AK are your value raises, and your "bluff" raises are should be stuff like bad wheel aces and "wheel" KXs (even though they can't make straights). Just good blockers and easier to play OOP

 

[grebe]

no, I'm not trying to say that at all lol, I'm saying it's most likely a call preflop. Not a 3bet. AQo should be pure calling and AQs can be 3! at a frequency. OOP really doesn't want to 3! many offsuit hands since they're much harder to play.

ok....we are on the same page then. Not sure what we were talking about.

 

[Vintage1974]

Bet $15. I'm really confused by villain's line here. I don't know what they'd have that they'd flat an overbet but not raise. Unless they have exactly AQ of spades, I think they fold to any bet here. If you bet and get check raised, I think you have to groan call.

Definitely a weird line by villain. The only hands hero loses to are exactly 89, Q9 and AQ. What do you think of an overbet here? I see a lot players over bet the river on missed flushes/draws. I know this is .25/.50 so maybe most players aren't really thinking in those terms. 90% of the time I see a villain tank and go all in on the river when the flush misses, especially on a check/bet/call flop, turn, and then check/bet/shove on river, I typically call and rarely see the nuts.

 

[Lemonzest]

I think the fold is way too tight. I like how you played it but you should have called the river. He could be jamming any two pair or lower set for value and be owning himself.

I think it is long term -ev to put your opponent on one specific hand and assume they have it. It seems like the only hand he could play this way and win is AQ of spades. On the other hand he could have many losing combinations that play this way (two pair or sets or a bluff) I think you have to call in this spot even if you lose it is a profitable call long term.

 

[upNdown]

I feel like if you’re folding there, you need to rack up your chips and go. I think it’s an easy call that you’re winning more often than not.

 

[dmoney]

I think the fold is way too tight. I like how you played it but you should have called the river.

I feel like if you’re folding there, you need to rack up your chips and go.

Gentle, please. I was quite sure I made a mistake the more I thought about it. Part of my reason for posting was to get more information about how others thought about the situation, and arrived at their decisions.

 

[Lemonzest]

Gentle, please. I was quite sure I made a mistake the more I thought about it. Part of my reason for posting was to get more information about how others thought about the situation, and arrived at their decisions.

Yeah all good man we are all learning. I am just starting to get back into playing seriously and lose less (lol).

I think its good to think in probabilities over the long term. So even if you call and lose it is still the right call over the long term. Basically, don't be results oriented.

I try to just focus on making the right decisions regardless of the outcome. Anyway, you can chalk it up as a learning experience which is worth more than the $ in that hand