PAHWM: Live $1/3, Attractive Hero has lucky Sevens (2 Viewers)

[NotRealNameNoSir]

$1/3 with an occasional UTG $6 straddle. BestBest St Augustine. Pretty gross chips and the room is quiet on Saturday night, there was apparently a big promotion on Sunday and Monday that I didn't know about, room seems reggy. I'm bad at poker and put way too much stock in reads and tells and random nonsense, so this post will have lots of that. Very welcome to tell me more about solvers because they're still a mystery to me.

Hero's dashing good looks are distracting, but table has seen him take down some pots without showing and bluff catch twice on the river with low-strength hands. Last bluff I called, I waited for him to show and he mucked, I muck facedown and drag the pot; this pissed off a random OMC enough to leave lol.

Villain has joined us a few orbits. He deals somewhere else in Florida, handles chips and seems super comfortable. He knows 3 people at the table already plus the dealer. Bought in for $80 but has quickly built it up to $220 after a tourist thought his 7-in-pocket-and-4-spades-on-board flush was the nuts. Sadly our tourist friend left after that hand. Villain has showed down some goofy hands (Q6s UTG+1, 94o button), defended his BB each and every time even cold calling a $30 3bet.


Tables been limping with very little 3betting especially after I stacked the crazy guy. Bought in for $300, been up and down, sitting on $260. Been a while, clearly having fun and table has seen my stack swing $100 either way in the past few hours.


7 handed, no straddle
UTG/UTG+1 folds
Hero: Raise to $11 with 7h7d.

Not gonna hold the hand here and ask for advice, I'm personally always opening middle pairs on a table like this.
I see that button already has calling chips in hand, CO and SB are both folding anyways (both already have cards in hand, and SB uses a chip capper when he decides to play a hand lol).

CO folds
Button (V): Checks his cards again, adds chips to the $3 he already had in hand. Calls $11
SB folds
BB OMC sigh-calls $11, but not like fake-sigh-I-have-a-monster, more like a deflated balloon who's sick of whippersnappers that bet before cards appear.

Pot: call it $30 after rake.

FLOP: 9s 9h 4h

BB: checks
Hero: ?

 

[JMC9389]

Bet $12

 

[Kain8]

I muck facedown and drag the pot; this pissed off a random OMC enough to leave lol.

You've won this session already as far as I'm concerned doing that.

$12 - $18 is a very reasonable flop bet.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

You've won this session already as far as I'm concerned doing that.

$12 - $18 is a very reasonable flop bet.

I couldn't help but laugh, he just looked so disgusted that I didn't even have to show what I caught the punt with. I had a weak top pair, made me feel good.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Spot on, I'm still in the lead and comfortable with my pair. Lots of high cards that missed and I don't think BB misreg chases a flush when the board is paired.


7 handed, no straddle
UTG/UTG+1 folds
Hero: Raise to $11 with 7h7d.
CO folds
Button (V): Checks his cards again, adds chips to the $3 he already had in hand. Calls $11
SB folds
BB OMC sigh-calls $11, but not like fake-sigh-I-have-a-monster, more like a deflated balloon who's sick of whippersnappers that bet before cards appear.

Pot: call it $30 after rake.

FLOP: 9s 9h 4h

BB: checks
Hero: Bets $15. Normal c-bet, won't raise any alarm bells. Felt $20 would wake up the OMC.

Button: Insta calls. My read was no 9, no big overpair, either heart draw or low pocket pair.
BB: Sighs again, get this man a doctor. Calls. Don't know if he's married to high cards that look pretty or what but 0% worried.

Dealer asks me who the action is on. My turn to sigh. "We're good, give us a turn."
BB asks if I had just checked.... I told him nope. He seemed disappointed, feels like I let my Dad down again.

Pot is $75. Effective behind is $190ish. Pot is still multiway with me in the middle, but BB is bad so I'm OOP where it matters.

TURN: 9s 9h 4h Td
BB checks with his cards in his hand. He'll fold to any aggression, his shoulders have slumped and he's opening his phone.
Villain on button giving nothing away.

HERO with 77: ?

 

[JMC9389]

No reason not to bet 1/3 pot again

 

[Gunnar]

I would not put many 9's or 10's in your range as the villain, but what is villain calling with here that does not have us beat?

Pot is 75 if we bet 40-50$ then we are only getting called by 9x 10x 88 JJ 44 and some slow played QQ,KK,AA we might get a call from AK - AQ from a very optimistic player.

I think check on the other hands shows weakness and hard for us to call a big bet. Bet 30$ and fold to a re-raise if the river is not an ace then shove it if you feel he has nothing.

If you hit the 7 on the river it is a shove always,

 

[Kentucky]

[Flop]
This is a drier flop that’s easy to miss. If you have a 9 you’re way ahead, if not, the best hand pre- is the best hand now.
A small-ish flop bet of $10-15 seems appropriate to get value from smaller pocket pairs, sticky over cards and draws. Hopefully we’ll hear from any 9s out there.

[Turn]
Turn T is an over card that downgrades our hand. It’s also close/connecting to the 9’s meaning hands that could call the flop like JTs, 108s improve. I don’t mind a value/denial bet for the same reasons we bet on the flop, but with fewer of those hands we beat out there, I think I would check and call a reasonable (1/2 pot?) size looking to get to a cheap river.

 

[TheJestyr]

Preflop I’d have played almost same way. On the flop I’d have gone closer to $18 personally, but essentially $15 does same thing. Not a huge difference.

On turn I’d fire out $40. I don’t hate seeing the 10h. I feel like if I’m getting called by overs, they’re most likely KQ or KJ…maybe J10 gets sticky? But I doubt it…and depending on how things play out, I’d still consider firing big on river and turning my hand into a bluff.

The other thing is the V sounds like he’s creative and finds ways to win hands even if it defies logic or wisdom. He shows up with dodgy hands and hopes they hit. He probably also tries to figure out all the ways he can still be good in situations and therefore will try to bluff or bluff catch more often than most.

All that to say he may be thinking you’re just trying to take it down with two over cards, so I’d keep it in the back of my mind that on the river if it’s a blank, a check or probably better yet, a down bet may induce a large bluff.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I appreciate all inputs. Big leak of mine is playing too passive and missing value; feel comfortable that Im ahead and if Im not I'd hear about it right now! I bet. Checking has merit but I'd become more confident and when in doubt I wanted to lean aggressive against competent opponents.


7 handed, no straddle
UTG/UTG+1 folds
Hero: Raise to $11 with 7h7d.
CO folds
Button (V): Checks his cards again, adds chips to the $3 he already had in hand. Calls $11
SB folds
BB OMC sigh-calls $11, but not like fake-sigh-I-have-a-monster, more like a deflated balloon who's sick of whippersnappers that bet before cards appear.

Pot: call it $30 after rake.

FLOP: 9s 9h 4h

BB: checks
Hero: Bets $15

Button: Insta calls.
BB: Calls.


Pot is $75. Effective behind is $190ish. Pot is still multiway with me in the middle, but BB is bad so I'm OOP where it matters.

TURN: 9s 9h 4h Td
BB checks.

HERO with 77: Bets $30. On the low end looking back, but Im fine with it with 3 people in the pot.
Villain: raises to $75.
He's done this once before in the 2ish orbits he'd been there but its still a small sample size, he had TPTK. Eh. With only one other time I wasnt going to immediately give him a monster. No tells otherwise, confident player.

BB: holds a small ceremony for his cards then folds them like it was a sordid affair. Poor guy, we all nodded our condolences.

Hero: Im not gonna hold you here, I called. I knew he didn't have a nine, and I wanted any non-Ace, non-heart river to be mine. His raise is strong but the sizing is suspiciously small and I think I'm ahead enough times to see a river.

Pot: $225, stacks are tiny, about half pot behind.

River: 9s 9h 4h Td 3h
Villain stares at that card. Doesnt look at me or the dealer, just death glare on the 3. I ask him if thats his lucky number, he says yes because he's the third child, never looking up from the card. Smooth! But Im not gonna bring birth order into this.

Hero: ??

 

[TheOffalo]

You missed an opportunity to tell him you're the 7th son of a 7th son!

 

[BGinGA]

You have zero fold equity if you don't bet. Fire $25 on the turn and see what shakes out.

 

[TheJestyr]

Traditionally if a player hits a card they love, they quickly look at their chips or your chips, not just stare at the board. Also, by staring at the board, it leans towards them being on a draw hoping to see the card hit, rather than watching his opponent and feeling confident whatever card comes out.

But removing live tells, I don’t love the heart, but still a lot of hands miss. He could have raised with overs, a straight draw, a smaller pocket pair, etc…

Here’s where I start getting too meta for my own good…

He bought in for $80. He didn’t buy in for max expecting to push the table around…but he’s played some speculative hands…did he bluff with those? Just call and then open fold? Win? How did you get to see the Q6 and 94os?

I guess given the description I’m expecting him to think he can out maneuver players when needed.

Also, his raise on the turn might be smallish, but relative to stack sizes, it’s powerful. If he has a monster, it’s a great way to get a little more money in the middle so you feel pot committed by the river. It’s also a great feeler raise to see if he can get you to fold for cheaply…Personally I don’t like the call out of position on the turn. I’d have raised and made him pay for his draw. And if he had a big hand, fine, I lose, but I think more often than not he has overs or draws there and I like reraising.

But back to how things have played out….given the current small stack sizes, his description, and still being pretty confident I have the best hand much of the time, I’d lean towards a down bet on the river. Sure I give a cheap pass to a few hands that beat me (mainly 8’s and 10x) but ultimately this is a situation where I feel like if I shove, I’m only getting called with better hands (MAYBE an AK calls you, but I’d have expected him to reraise pre) or he folds…and I don’t think you’re really getting better hands to fold (except maybe 8’s and 10x as mentioned…)

So I think the most positive EV play in this spot is to down bet to like $40. Either he folds, which is fine and you win, or he just calls, which I think you’re prolly good in that spot more often than not, or you induce a raise and you’re prepared to call anything. Yes he could have a 9 or flush or better, but I also think a good amount of time he can have overs and your down bet on the river induces a bluff.

 

[TheJestyr]

I take it back…I think I fire river. After thinking more about it, he could easily have a 9 and you making the flush would be scary, so I’d shove. You may not have enough to get him off of it, but that’s my move.

 

[TheJestyr]

I love answering these kinda threads and looking back and then saying:

“Yyyyyuuuuup….and that’s why I’m a losing player” lol

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Traditionally if a player hits a card they love, they quickly look at their chips or your chips, not just stare at the board. Also, by staring at the board, it leans towards them being on a draw hoping to see the card hit, rather than watching his opponent and feeling confident whatever card comes out.

But removing live tells, I don’t love the heart, but still a lot of hands miss. He could have raised with overs, a straight draw, a smaller pocket pair, etc…

Here’s where I start getting too meta for my own good…

He bought in for $80. He didn’t buy in for max expecting to push the table around…but he’s played some speculative hands…did he bluff with those? Just call and then open fold? Win? How did you get to see the Q6 and 94os?

I guess given the description I’m expecting him to think he can out maneuver players when needed.

Also, his raise on the turn might be smallish, but relative to stack sizes, it’s powerful. If he has a monster, it’s a great way to get a little more money in the middle so you feel pot committed by the river. It’s also a great feeler raise to see if he can get you to fold for cheaply…Personally I don’t like the call out of position on the turn. I’d have raised and made him pay for his draw. And if he had a big hand, fine, I lose, but I think more often than not he has overs or draws there and I like reraising.

But back to how things have played out….given the current small stack sizes, his description, and still being pretty confident I have the best hand much of the time, I’d lean towards a down bet on the river. Sure I give a cheap pass to a few hands that beat me (mainly 8’s and 10x) but ultimately this is a situation where I feel like if I shove, I’m only getting called with better hands (MAYBE an AK calls you, but I’d have expected him to reraise pre) or he folds…and I don’t think you’re really getting better hands to fold (except maybe 8’s and 10x as mentioned…)

So I think the most positive EV play in this spot is to down bet to like $40. Either he folds, which is fine and you win, or he just calls, which I think you’re prolly good in that spot more often than not, or you induce a raise and you’re prepared to call anything. Yes he could have a 9 or flush or better, but I also think a good amount of time he can have overs and your down bet on the river induces a bluff.

I appreciate this! This kind of nonsense is my favorite part of poker, thanks for typing it up.

To speak to some of it, agreed on the buyin. He's very comfortable at the table and I know he had a couple hundred in chips in his pack. He saw a kind of reggy game and short stacked. He showed every time others folded when he was in the hand, usually had a big hand or at least nut draw. Generally convivial, people liked him and he knew players, but didn't seem amazing, just comfortable, ya know? I bin them differently.


------------------------------------------------------
7 handed, no straddle
UTG/UTG+1 folds
Hero: Raise to $11 with 7h7d.
CO folds
Button (V): Checks his cards again, adds chips to the $3 he already had in hand. Calls $11
SB folds
BB OMC sigh-calls $11, but not like fake-sigh-I-have-a-monster, more like a deflated balloon who's sick of whippersnappers that bet before cards appear.

Pot: call it $30 after rake.

FLOP: 9s 9h 4h

BB: checks
Hero: Bets $15
Button: Insta calls.
BB: Calls.

Pot is $75. Effective behind is $190ish. Pot is still multiway with me in the middle, but BB is bad so I'm OOP where it matters.

TURN: 9s 9h 4h Td
BB checks.

HERO with 77: Bets $30. On the low end looking back, but Im fine with it with 3 people in the pot.
Villain: raises to $75.
BB folds
Hero calls

Pot: $225, stacks are tiny, about half pot behind.

River: 9s 9h 4h Td 3h
Villain stares
Hero: Bets $20. Looking back I think its too low. My thoughts at the time were he was weak from tells and the small raise. I was targeting and wanted a call from a A4/ace-high/55, and if he shoved I'm very annoyed.

Villain calls.... with AsJs. Later told me he thought my baby bet was trying to bluff but I was scared to put more chips in. I dunno, he called and still showed after I tabled my pair. I won another pot off him later when the board counterfeited his two pair and the same tells seemed reliable. Like @TheJestyr mentioned, chip glance is fa-a-a-ntastic with live mooks.


I was attempting to set my own price but I think its just too small and silly. This is the part I have the most trouble with: he's got a very polarized hand, pot is double the stacks and I'm squarely in the middle with a (what I thought) was an obvious hand. If I check the river and he shoves, do I call? Not many people bluff that heavy at $1/3, but we've built the pot up and its tough seeing a bluff without shoving the rest. I think he correctly figured that I was gunshy, I hadn't played in a casino in a long while and my regular game is tiny in comparison so I was still getting my sea legs back. Need to remember this going forward.

 

[JMC9389]

I thought you did fine until the small blocker bet on the river. I'm not sure I'm shoving but I'm still betting something to get calls from non believing ace highs (like you did) and worse pairs.

Nothing wrong with going 1/3 pot again to give you some fold equity to a jam over the top.

Man, he called with ace high on a paired board with three to a flush? Where is this game? I want to play.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I thought you did fine until the small blocker bet on the river. I'm not sure I'm shoving but I'm still betting something to get calls from non believing ace highs (like you did) and worse pairs.

Nothing wrong with going 1/3 pot again to give you some fold equity to a jam over the top.

Man, he called with ace high on a paired board with three to a flush? Where is this game? I want to play.

Yeah, it wasn't a snap call but it was a quick breath, check cards and toss a $25 out there confidently. When it was that flippant I thought I was dead and he was just collecting lol. Noted on the sizing. Its dealers man, they're bananas! This was BestBet St. Augustine, would not advise it from my experience but there was a few hands like this which made it a good night lol.

 

[TheJestyr]

Man, he called with ace high on a paired board with three to a flush? Where is this game? I want to play.

$20 bucks on the river? I’m absolutely calling with a strong ace into a pot of $265 at that point.

 

[JMC9389]

$20 bucks on the river? I’m absolutely calling with a strong ace into a pot of $265 at that point.

I guess he's priced into a call at that price but with that kind of action, I'm taking that as bait to induce a raise.

 

[TheJestyr]

I guess he's priced into a call at that price but with that kind of action, I'm taking that as bait to induce a raise.

It absolutely might be. But I only need to be right one out of 13 times? I’ll take my chances lol

Heck, I might even call with KQ honestly…or I’m raising, depends how much I had to drink…

 

[TheJestyr]

@NotRealNameNoSir thanks for posting this…been a long time since I really put myself into the shoes of other players while analyzing my hand, and I always forget just how helpful it is. This was a fun one

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

@NotRealNameNoSir thanks for posting this…been a long time since I really put myself into the shoes of other players while analyzing my hand, and I always forget just how helpful it is. This was a fun one

100%! Half posting it to punish myself for the weird fishy river bet, I had a decent read but the bets not doing me any good (though it was a few more bucks in my pocket).

 

[springbox]

Man, that turn raise of his is awful. No straight draw, no flush draw, just two naked overs. Either he should call down if he thinks A high might be good and you're bluffing, or just throw his cards in the trash.

Anyways yeah, not a huge fan of the 10% pot river bet. Probably size up to 25%ish or just check it.

 

[Nickamas]

If your not playing 7 deuce off you ain’t living.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

View attachment 1373521

If your not playing 7 deuce off you ain’t living.

I had 77 not 72 but I see where you could be confused.

 

[JustinInMN]

100%! Half posting it to punish myself for the weird fishy river bet, I had a decent read but the bets not doing me any good (though it was a few more bucks in my pocket).

Well since this thread has been brought to life, and I missed it the first time, I am going to add comments. I think you played this very well throughout.

The interesting decision here is what do you think is happening on the turn?

Since you decided villain had some air when he check-raises the turn, you are playing the river for value, and for that goal your sizing makes sense and isn't really that fishy. If you know this villain can call with A-hi, it's important that you meet that price point to make sure you win enough to outweigh the times villain is going to have you beat. If you bet 40 instead, for example, and that happens to be a number at which villain will fold a-hi but still call with a ten, that's the worst of both worlds for you. So while you are thinking about going for more than 20 here, you want to find the biggest number that doesn't tip villain to a fold on his holding, and that can be delicate. This is the classic reason people say no limit bet sizing can be as much art as it is math. It really is a know your player situation.

The alternative approach to this river is to turn your hand into a bluff, which I might do if I had the read that the turn-check raise is almost always Tx, never air, and never a draw. With this approach though, you are abandoning the goal of being called by a-hi and going for a sizing high enough to create some fold incentive with the hands you think he could throw (which I think would be Tx in this case.) If this is the plan, then I am probably going to use the river heart as a scare card and use a sizing that puts on some pressure. Suffice it to say if this is your goal, then yes, a bet of 20 would be a fish play, especially given the result.

But your approach has value. You may wonder if you could have bet a little more, but again if you take that too far and are pricing out the Ax crying calls, then the play doesn't really have value because you will never be called by a lesser hand.

Bottom line, you chose to play it for value, and getting called by a-hi here is mission accomplished. And took an intermediate sort of read to realize that A-hi was still in villain's range after he check-raised the turn.

So again, well done and don't punish yourself too harshly.

 

[Nickamas]

I had 77 not 72 but I see where you could be confused.

Lol I thought I posted this last night in the live thread went back and checked it was not there and posted it again. WHOOPS!

 

[ontheriver51]

15 on flop is fine. I think betting $20-30 on turn makes sense. If you were in position I would probably lean towards checking with plans of snap calling most rivers. Most people can’t resist bluffing after a check back. Balling the raise on the turn is also going to be good most of the time here I think. If villain had a 9 he would’ve at least paused to consider his options on flop. He could be raising with random Tx (JT, QT, etc. especially if he had hearts with it). Leading on a the river when the flush gets there to block is also a smart play imo, but as you said I probably would have gone in the $60-80 range. $20 is likely to get raised by any 2 cards where the slightly larger size is still getting called by the hands that call $20 and make it much harder for villain to raise with air

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Well since this thread has been brought to life, and I missed it the first time, I am going to add comments. I think you played this very well throughout.

The interesting decision here is what do you think is happening on the turn?

Since you decided villain had some air when he check-raises the turn, you are playing the river for value, and for that goal your sizing makes sense and isn't really that fishy. If you know this villain can call with A-hi, it's important that you meet that price point to make sure you win enough to outweigh the times villain is going to have you beat. If you bet 40 instead, for example, and that happens to be a number at which villain will fold a-hi but still call with a ten, that's the worst of both worlds for you. So while you are thinking about going for more than 20 here, you want to find the biggest number that doesn't tip villain to a fold on his holding, and that can be delicate. This is the classic reason people say no limit bet sizing can be as much art as it is math. It really is a know your player situation.

The alternative approach to this river is to turn your hand into a bluff, which I might do if I had the read that the turn-check raise is almost always Tx, never air, and never a draw. With this approach though, you are abandoning the goal of being called by a-hi and going for a sizing high enough to create some fold incentive with the hands you think he could throw (which I think would be Tx in this case.) If this is the plan, then I am probably going to use the river heart as a scare card and use a sizing that puts on some pressure. Suffice it to say if this is your goal, then yes, a bet of 20 would be a fish play, especially given the result.

But your approach has value. You may wonder if you could have bet a little more, but again if you take that too far and are pricing out the Ax crying calls, then the play doesn't really have value because you will never be called by a lesser hand.

Bottom line, you chose to play it for value, and getting called by a-hi here is mission accomplished. And took an intermediate sort of read to realize that A-hi was still in villain's range after he check-raised the turn.

So again, well done and don't punish yourself too harshly.

15 on flop is fine. I think betting $20-30 on turn makes sense. If you were in position I would probably lean towards checking with plans of snap calling most rivers. Most people can’t resist bluffing after a check back. Balling the raise on the turn is also going to be good most of the time here I think. If villain had a 9 he would’ve at least paused to consider his options on flop. He could be raising with random Tx (JT, QT, etc. especially if he had hearts with it). Leading on a the river when the flush gets there to block is also a smart play imo, but as you said I probably would have gone in the $60-80 range. $20 is likely to get raised by any 2 cards where the slightly larger size is still getting called by the hands that call $20 and make it much harder for villain to raise with air

Appreciate both of you! Sorry @JustinInMN must've missed this. Yeah I'm not a good player so this hand was mostly me practicing being comfortable playing against a more creative player. I usually just catch punts, its fun thinking through the hands a bit more. Good call on turning it into a bluff, that would've been solid, gosh would've been wonderful to get him to fold a weird 9 when the 3rd heart hit, I think our stacks were just too shallow at that point.


Working through RunItOnce's Foundations course now, lots of it is just baseline level thinking but Phil Galfond is a fantastic teacher, enjoying it so far.