Pocket fours on the button (1 Viewer)

[AlPresidente]

I would have raised slightly more pre (like $10-$12) but if $6 is a normal raise for you then I wouldn't have done anything differently. Probably would have raised to $100 on the flop. As played, though, barring any tells, and with your image, I make it $80 and fold to any raise.

Don't think we can fold to a shove from crazy. $90 to win $480 means we're getting the odds to chase.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

True, I meant fold to a raise from one of the larger stacks.

 

[Mr Tree]

Curious about flatting the flop. It's a play I would never make with that many players and scare cards but I'm sure Doc had a good reason.

 

[DrStrange]

I'll go into a longer discussion at the end of the hand but at the time, Hero was thinking more about the worse end of villains' ranges. There are some dreadful hand putting in
$25 that might pay another bet (or two) if it is Crafty making the bet. A still raise from Hero on the flop would clear most of those hands out.

 

[mipevi]

Take the free card, river quads, go all-in!

 

[Leonard]

I hate the flop call. That said, half pot bet is reasonable.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I would have raised the flop.

But since we didn't raise the flop and now find ourselves on the turn with a flush likely, a check is in order. If the board pairs, our hand will be fairly well-disguised, and we'll almost certainly get good action from a flush (which will almost definitely bet out after the turn checked through). Thankfully, the ranks on the board are pretty ragged, so I wouldn't be overly concerned about two pair filling up to beat us.

If the board doesn't pair, we'll have to evaluate the river card and action before making our next decision.

 

[DrStrange]

*** and now the river ***

Hero bets $95. Crafty calls, all else fold. Two way action, $332 in the pot. Effective stacks are $478. Hero holds

River is: < >

Crafty checks. Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting how much?

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Given Crafty's line, the only hand we beat that we can reasonably expect to (sometimes) call here is something like . Anything else I could image Crafty would have here and that would call a bet, would have us beat: flushes and bigger sets. Everything else is folding or check-raising (the latter of which is a disaster for us against a tricky opponent). An opponent who over-values one pair is almost never folding a set here.

If there's any value in betting, it's very thin. Against a loose, predictable opponent, I might try to squeeze an extra buck on the river, expecting to only get called once in a while. Against a tricky opponent, that thin value isn't worth reopening the action in such a big pot. These stack sizes are a perfect spot for Crafty to scare us off our hand if we bet small, especially if he has and a weak pair that's not worth showing down (like ).

Check behind and be grateful for the opportunity.

 

[mipevi]

Yeah, crafty's line just looks really strong. I don't think we're beating much that he would call any decent bet with, and being crafty and all he might put us in a difficult spot by check-raising his weaker range and high flushes. I check and curse as he shows me .

 

[Trihonda]

Check.

 

[Leonard]

Check

 

[stocky]

You do the opposite of what I say so with that in mind JAM.

 

[NicholasAK]

Pre-flat, flop-raise call it off, turn check, river check.

You have plenty of showdown value. No worse hands can call a bet, no better hands are likely to fold. Not to mention they're firmly putting you on aa or kk...which is close to the hand strength of your set at this point.

 

[moojersey]

I like a check back on the river. For most players I think check back is the right play. Pot is pretty juicy and you have a pretty strong hand for showdown.

Personally for me, if I'm feeling greedy and I'm pretty confident I'm best, I might polarize myself by shoving and make it look like a bluff trying to save a missed draw. That's me, I don't recommend anyone do this. I've had some players call light thinking they were making a genius hero call. It depended on the table though. Poker is partly about people after all.

 

[bivey]

check behind

 

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero bets $95. Crafty ponders a bit, gives the "I don't know how I can fold this" speech and calls. He tables and is a little surprised to see the set of fours.

We have a lengthy discussion about the hand over the next half hour or so. The read Crafty had was AA/KK being slow played, maybe with a flush draw or AK that paid $25 to catch a card or on a bad day AK or AJ of hearts. He felt the was an important blocking card. Crafty said he was considering a check/raise at the river but thought better of it.

DrStrange

 

[stocky]

Crafty said he was considering a check/raise at the river but thought better of it.

What is Heros plan if crafty does indeed check raise here?

 

[DrStrange]

Here were my thoughts at the table:

Preflop, I almost always put in a raise with a pocket pair when in good position as a cheap and safe way to add some hands holding lower ranked card to my range. I am almost strictly set mining here. Playing a small pair for a modest raise isn't much different from calling a villain raise except there is a better chance to get a free card on the turn since players often check to the bettor.

Flop, I got fixated on the garbage part of the villain ranges and decided to trap. There is a solid chance everyone is drawing to almost dead needing runner runner. However I didn't fully appreciate the risks of a flushing board. In hindsight I wished I would have raised the flop even though that raise likely folds out the field. The huge number of possible straight draws didn't bother me very much. I also held the opinion that position would help me divine the villains' powerhouses and perhaps find a cheap fold. This was a case where greed overwhelmed prudence. I was lucky it didn't bite me in the ass.

Turn, position helped me find the courage to bet. I could bet/fold vs the tricky/trappy villain who is sure to check raise me. Crazy's stack is too short to fear - I felt he was the mostly likely caller on the turn, and he'd be calling in bad shape. Crafty rarely gives up the betting lead with a good hand. I wouldn't have been surprised to have him bet the turn with the flush draw plus top pair, but with three callers I can see how the risk of facing a flush was too great. I thought the call with Crafty's hand bordered on spew - he just didn't believe I had a good enough flush to have him drawing dead. It is notable that Crafty really didn't consider the odds. The situation was too complex for easy math so he didn't bother.

River, of all my choices this one seems like the closest. Crafty isn't ever folding better, but there aren't many hands he will call with that lose. I think hero gets lucky here but on balance the reward didn't quite match the risk. Hero is leaning bet/fold if Crafty raises. That raise is highly polarized, the nut flush or a bluff. Hero has told a consistent story the whole hand. Hero has a big ace with a flush or an ace high flush draw that missed. Crafty gets called by the nuts and likely folds out an over pair with a big check/raise. The only time a bluff pays off is when two pair loses to a set (or a baby flush) and hero folds.

DrStrange

 

[mipevi]

*** Results ***

Hero bets $95. Crafty ponders a bit, gives the "I don't know how I can fold this" speech and calls. He tables and is a little surprised to see the set of fours.

We have a lengthy discussion about the hand over the next half hour or so. The read Crafty had was AA/KK being slow played, maybe with a flush draw or AK that paid $25 to catch a card or on a bad day AK or AJ of hearts. He felt the was an important blocking card. Crafty said he was considering a check/raise at the river but thought better of it.

DrStrange

I got the T suit wrong, but figured that was the very worst hand he was calling the turn with that you could get value from on the river. But I assumed he was drawing on the turn with his Q, not figuring it to be a blocker

 

[airball7]

Absolutely can play limped or for a raise - I prefer raising as a flopped set with a rag board will be far more dangerous - also may get a freebie flop and peel the magic card on the turn or bet/check-fold depending on how the action to you is.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Interesting hand, thanks for sharing.

My humble thoughts:

Pre-

I vehemently disagree with the "build a pot" theory. Either we're betting for value or bluffing. (I guess you could argue this is a value bet, but you even said you're solely set mining. In a pot this multi way we aren't continuing without a set so I don't classify it as for value) If you could see the flop beforehand, then yes, you would want to bloat the pot when you know you'll be hitting your set! But we can't see the flop, so to me you're just charging yourself a 2BB voluntary tax to see a flop with a speculative hand in position. You're costing yourself 14 BB in between every hit set in this spot.

If I find a raise here its way bigger; whatever it takes to get everyone to fold or get it heads up. Are you opening to 3x over 4 limpers here with AA/KK etc? If not I don't think you're balancing your range as much as you are hoping. Also don't think you need to be "always" opening in this spot to be balanced. If you are always opening to 3x it makes sense, but if not you're just making you easier to play against on the button by telegraphing your hand strength.

Flop-

It seemed like a super standard bomb spot to me on such a wet board. You tried to bloat the pot pre but then don't continue to try and build holding the 3rd nuts? Flatting allows the draws to get in at the correct price.

Turn-

Most said check, I think it was a great spot to get value. If he has the flush he'll tell you there or on the river.

River-

You're very underrepped here based on the flop flat; I think a lot of V are leading river with the flush for that reason fearing a check back. We shouldn't be too concerned about the flush and got our value. Nice.