Quickie: bomb pot line check (2 Viewers)

[Schmendr1ck]

Playing a pretty wild .25/.50 NLHE game with one bomb pot per orbit, frequent single/double/triple straddles, and plenty of sticky, questionable play. This game is the epitome of "high-variance."

The game starts at $60 max, but has progressed to $100 max as it always does after a few hours. The player to my right (main villain) is new to the game - we've been chatting for a while, and he's told me that as a college student, he was a winning mid-stakes player (2-5, 5-10, and even a little 10-25). He hasn't played much recently though. I haven't seen him play many hands, but he's up a little and seems solid.

Eight players are in for a $2 bomb pot. I'm in MP with , pot is $16 and I have $98 behind after a fresh rebuy. Villain covers me with about $110. The rest of the table is in the $50-150 range.

Hero:
Flop 1:
Flop 2:

Checks to villain, who open rips it for $110 into $16.

Hero?

 

[DrStrange]

Torn between call or fold. Given the table description I guess I have to call. Hero has to get the pot multi-way otherwise he is risking $110 to win $8.

Hero has little hope to win the second board. Maybe a turn / river king would do the trick. Hero is likely ahead on board one but will be fading outs many times. Hero is truly screwed vs QQ. Got to wonder what villain is going to table . . . .

I hope Hero's table read is right. We need to get some silly calls in for the math to work out.

DrStrange

 

[JMC9389]

Call and get the rebuy ready.

 

[bergs]

Lots of hands they could have that hits board 2. I think you have to call. This is an easy fold in PLO though. Interesting hand.

 

[JMC9389]

Lots of hands they could have that hits board 2. I think you have to call. This is an easy fold in PLO though. Interesting hand.

I'd fold too if I was only dealt 2 cards in a PLO bomb pot!

I just don't see many hands that hit both boards hard. It's a horrific play by villain to open jam for 200 BB's effective on two relatively dry boards. I have a feeling that the villain did this with air, got called by @Schmendr1ck , and ended up scooping on some bullshit.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I have a feeling that the villain did this with air, got called by @Schmendr1ck , and ended up scooping on some bullshit.

I'm very tempted not to tell you how the hand turned out. I'll tell everybody else, just not you.

Regardless of outcome, it was a super weird spot and I wasn't sure what to do, which is why I posted it.

 

[nezara]

I would fold. your chances on the 2nd board are pretty slim. Sounds like you'll have plenty of chances to get it in during the course of the evening with a more straight forward decision than this

 

[TheOffalo]

I'd be tempted to call, but potentially stacking off to only more than likely win just $8, I'd probably fold.

 

[Legend5555]

Fold. It's very likely to go heads up and you only really have 1 board. To call this you'd need SOMETHING going on on the other board. Even just a pair or a straight draw. If you knew it was going to go 3 ways, I think you could justify a call. There is actual still a 32% chance someone has the last 3.

 

[CantSpellPoker]

I don't participate in these hardly ever because I'm not all that good, but, you asked:

Fold for me. You don't have anything on the second board, and you're not even nutted on the first board. You're even losing to . As others have said, you're likely shoving your stack just to win your own money back, plus 8 bucks.

Something like or for the villain makes sense. Or he might just have the super nuts on either board with or (obviously queens isn't the nuts on Board #1, but it effectively is, since you have a 3), although I don't know why he would rip it like that if he didn't at least have a chance to win both boards.

 

[upNdown]

Seems like a no-brainer fold unless you’re drunk. You’re in it for two bucks. Why would you risk your whole stack, hoping to break even?

 

[detroitdad]

If you think you'll get more players in the hand. Call. If not, then I would fold

 

[Goldfish]

Wow, a lot of people say fold here….I, on the other hand, will take the road less traveled, and say go all in. Yes, this guy could have QQ, or A3 or 86 of clubs, but he could also have 34, 35, 37, 39, 310, 3j and u would have him crushed. I am never folding in this spot. Just get it in. If u lose, that’s what rebuys are for.

 

[AlwaysDefend]

I don't know much about double board but given we have nothing on the second board I most likely fold.

 

[bergs]

I don't know much about double board but given we have nothing on the second board I most likely fold.

Irony ^

 

[arch3r]

You have nothing on the bottom so at best you betting $98 to win $8. Shitty odds. Fold.

 

[toothpic]

Feels like you're putting your stack in to split at best. Playing full ring and if someone jams into a bomb pot they aren't likely bluffing and have one of the boards hit pretty hard. I would fold here given the amount already in vs how much more you need to bet to possibly split.

 

[AlwaysDefend]

Irony ^

intuition?

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Easy fold, IMO. Bomb pots are all about chances of scooping, where hero has very little chance of that in this hand. Fold and look for a better spot next time.

Edit to add if we have a gutter on the bottom board I would be much more likely to call.

 

[Mike mac]

100% call

 

[detroitdad]

Easy fold, IMO. Bomb pots are all about chances of scooping, where hero has very little chance of that in this hand. Fold and look for a better spot next time.

Edit to add if we have a gutter on the bottom board I would be much more likely to call.

I call bullshit

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I call bullshit

Nah. Now you know how to play holdem against me -- Just bet 6x the pot to find out where you're at.

 

[detroitdad]

Nah. Now you know how to play holdem against me -- Just bet 6x the pot to find out where you're at.

I know how to play NLHE vs you (don't show up for the game)

 

[Legend5555]

Wow, a lot of people say fold here….I, on the other hand, will take the road less traveled, and say go all in. Yes, this guy could have QQ, or A3 or 86 of clubs, but he could also have 34, 35, 37, 39, 310, 3j and u would have him crushed. I am never folding in this spot. Just get it in. If u lose, that’s what rebuys are for.

You seen to be completely ignoring the fact that this is a split pot game. It's not about what we could be beat by on the board we think we are winning, it's about the fact that we have literal nothing on the other board.

 

[Goldfish]

You seen to be completely ignoring the fact that this is a split pot game. It's not about what we could be beat by on the board we think we are winning, it's about the fact that we have literal nothing on the other board.

I play a lot of split pot games so I understand that dynamic pretty well. If ur heads up, and villain has anyone of the hands I previously mentioned hero would be good with K hi so hero definitely has something on the second board (especially in a 2 card game). Heck, Robbie Lew stuck over 100k in with jack hi, surely hero can stick in 100 with trip 3s and K hi.

 

[Beakertwang]

$116 to win $8? Seems like a fold.

 

[Frogzilla]

you gotta play both boards at same time. One board is a call. One board is a slam dunk fold. Together I think it’s a fold. If you had three to a flush on bottom though, it’d be an interesting spot.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Now you see why I posted this. So far opinions seem to lean slightly towards fold, but still a lot of callers.

Here's my thought process:

1. I'm only crushed by a couple of hands (A3, QQ), and I can't see why a thoughtful player with a monster like QQ would want to chase everyone out of the pot with a nearly 10x flop shove.
2. Given the nature of the game, there is a good chance that this pot will go 3-4 ways if I call. The gamble is off the charts tonight, and the second board likely hits one or two of the random hands behind me. And the other 3 is snap calling if it is out there.
3. The only hands I can think of that have significant equity on both boards are two clubs that make one pair/two pair/straight draws on board two. Against these hands, I'm still a big favorite to chop, but I do want another caller to make the risk worthwhile.

So as you can guess, I called. And as expected, one more player in LP called behind me with about $75.

Spoiler

Villain shows for flush draw on 1 and top pair on 2. Club hits the top, and I don't improve. LP caller mucks without showing, and Villain scoops.

Against Villain's actual hand, I was 76% to win the top and 13% to win the bottom, and I suspect I was also way ahead of the caller on the top, so in spite of results, I felt like my call was high variance but good.

 

[JMC9389]

Now you see why I posted this. So far opinions seem to lean slightly towards fold, but still a lot of callers.

Here's my thought process:

1. I'm only crushed by a couple of hands (A3, QQ), and I can't see why a thoughtful player with a monster like QQ would want to chase everyone out of the pot with a nearly 10x flop shove.
2. Given the nature of the game, there is a good chance that this pot will go 3-4 ways if I call. The gamble is off the charts tonight, and the second board likely hits one or two of the random hands behind me. And the other 3 is snap calling if it is out there.
3. The only hands I can think of that have significant equity on both boards are two clubs that make one pair/two pair/straight draws on board two. Against these hands, I'm still a big favorite to chop, but I do want another caller to make the risk worthwhile.

So as you can guess, I called. And as expected, one more player in LP called behind me with about $75.

Spoiler

Villain shows for flush draw on 1 and top pair on 2. Club hits the top, and I don't improve. LP caller mucks without showing, and Villain scoops.

Against Villain's actual hand, I was 76% to win the top and 13% to win the bottom, and I suspect I was also way ahead of the caller on the top, so in spite of results, I felt like my call was high variance but good.

Knew it!

 

[upNdown]

I was 76% to win the top and 13% to win the bottom

I felt like my call was high variance but good.

I guess I disagree, but maybe somebody smart can do the math.
Well, if it stayed heads-up, then it’s definitely a bad call, right?
You know your game well enough that if you’re confident that somebody else would come in after you, I guess we should can accept that. But you’re only 76% on top, and that number almost necessarily drops each time somebody else comes in, doesn’t it? I guess to determine what’s profitable, we’d have to know who’s coming in and with how much. So way too many variables for me.