Quickie: bomb pot line check (1 Viewer)

[Marc Hedrick]

I think you're supposed to add up equity and divide by 2. So 89/2 = 44.5% equity when we have $2 invested and have to call off $98 more.

Doesn't seem great, but my bomb pot math could be off.

 

[detroitdad]

I think you're supposed to add up equity and divide by 2. So 89/2 = 44.5% equity when we have $2 invested and have to call off $98 more.

Doesn't seem great, but my bomb pot math could be off.

This is why you are the pro in our group. You play with math. I play with my gut

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I guess I disagree, but maybe somebody smart can do the math.
Well, if it stayed heads-up, then it’s definitely a bad call, right?

If heads-up, I have a 10% chance of scooping, a 66% chance of winning the top only, and a 3% chance of winning the bottom only. (Note these are approximations since I'm not accounting for card removal, i.e. one of my bottom board outs hitting the top board.)

So with no other callers, I believe my EV for a call is: 0.10*212 + 0.69*106 - 98 = 21.20 + 73.14 - 98 = -3.66.

So yes, against this exact hand and assuming everyone else folds, my call is a slight loser. However, this is pretty much my worst case scenario - it doesn't take into consideration the other hands in Villain's range or the percentage of time that another player calls with a hand that I'm way ahead of on the first board. Those are a little harder to quantify, but my belief is that they both add to the EV of my call.

It's absolutely a high-variance call, and I knew that the moment I stuck the chips in.

You know your game well enough that if you’re confident that somebody else would come in after you, I guess we should can accept that. But you’re only 76% on top, and that number almost necessarily drops each time somebody else comes in, doesn’t it? I guess to determine what’s profitable, we’d have to know who’s coming in and with how much. So way too many variables for me.

Yeah, it's hard to math this one out completely, and I'm not even going to try.

 

[TheOffalo]

Given the nature of the game, there is a good chance that this pot will go 3-4 ways if I call. The gamble is off the charts tonight, and the second board likely hits one or two of the random hands behind me. And the other 3 is snap calling if it is out there.

That would be the main factor for me to change from Fold to Call, if I "knew" at least 1 person, and more than likely 2 ppl will overcall.

 

[toothpic]

Now you see why I posted this. So far opinions seem to lean slightly towards fold, but still a lot of callers.

Here's my thought process:

1. I'm only crushed by a couple of hands (A3, QQ), and I can't see why a thoughtful player with a monster like QQ would want to chase everyone out of the pot with a nearly 10x flop shove.
2. Given the nature of the game, there is a good chance that this pot will go 3-4 ways if I call. The gamble is off the charts tonight, and the second board likely hits one or two of the random hands behind me. And the other 3 is snap calling if it is out there.
3. The only hands I can think of that have significant equity on both boards are two clubs that make one pair/two pair/straight draws on board two. Against these hands, I'm still a big favorite to chop, but I do want another caller to make the risk worthwhile.

So as you can guess, I called. And as expected, one more player in LP called behind me with about $75.

Spoiler

Villain shows for flush draw on 1 and top pair on 2. Club hits the top, and I don't improve. LP caller mucks without showing, and Villain scoops.

Against Villain's actual hand, I was 76% to win the top and 13% to win the bottom, and I suspect I was also way ahead of the caller on the top, so in spite of results, I felt like my call was high variance but good.

You've got a good poker crew!

 

[Schmendr1ck]

You've got a good poker crew!

Yeah, it's a fun group and a great game.

I'm on a massive downswing in this game right now, just losing lots of big pots where I get chips in as a favorite. So that probably factored into my decision to make the high-variance call here.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I think you're supposed to add up equity and divide by 2. So 89/2 = 44.5% equity when we have $2 invested and have to call off $98 more.

Doesn't seem great, but my bomb pot math could be off.

Remember, it's not about how much you have invested. It's about pot odds vs. equity.

I have to call $98 to win $212, so pot odds are 46.2% and my equity against Villain's exact hand is about 44.5%.

This lines up with the math I did earlier: it's a slightly bad call against Villain's exact hand if no one else calls, but probably a slight +EV call against Villain's range that often gets much better if another player calls behind.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Everyone is saying we want another caller....why? So we can lose more often? Of course all hands are random here as its a bomb pot but what hand is over calling a 6x shove that doesn't have us crushed?

I get that then we can chop and half the pot is suddenly more profitable, but the likelihood of being crushed goes up by a large margin, IMO.

 

[bergs]

I think you have to call if for no other reason than to establish dominance. Same concept if you’re in jail and step out to the yard for the first time. And to close the analogy, NLHE is like being imprisoned (double board NLHE just makes it a medium security prison).

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I play a lot of split pot games so I understand that dynamic pretty well. If ur heads up, and villain has anyone of the hands I previously mentioned hero would be good with K hi so hero definitely has something on the second board (especially in a 2 card game). Heck, Robbie Lew stuck over 100k in with jack hi, surely hero can stick in 100 with trip 3s and K hi.

Lol you shouldn't be allowed to reference any of her lines in a strategy thread, cmon now!

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Everyone is saying we want another caller....why? So we can lose more often? Of course all hands are random here as its a bomb pot but what hand is over calling a 6x shove that doesn't have us crushed?

I get that then we can chop and half the pot is suddenly more profitable, but the likelihood of being crushed goes up by a large margin, IMO.

In a reasonable game, you're probably right. But in that kind of game, I simply fold to the shove and wait for the next hand.

This game is not reasonable - go back and read my previous posts. Players are drinking, gambling, and super loose. Hands that should be a fold behind a massive overshove and a call are sometimes just not going to fold. So let's think about what kinds of hands might call behind:

1) Hands that have both boards crushed.
This is exactly QQ. If that happens, GG, NH, rebuy.

2) Overpairs (AA, KK). Note that no one in this game will ever fold an overpair in this spot, maybe even overpairs to the bottom only like JJ or TT.
3) Any hand with a 3.
4) Straight draws and two pair on the bottom, blank on the top.
All of these hands are great for me except A3 and Q3. They all make the pot a lot larger while having little effect on my top board equity, so when I chop most of the time, I win half of a bigger pot.

5) Club draws, especially those with a pair on the bottom board.
These reduce Villain's equity on the top board, don't change mine very much, and increase the size of the pot - again, great for me.

I can't think of any other hands that would call given the action.

 

[Machine]

Having trouble hearing you, are you saying it’s a lively game?

let’s recap: a guy put in 100 bucks to win 16 with a pair of 9s and a shit flush drawl on a paired board? Can I mail you 100 and randomly text you when I want to play my hand of bingo?

 

[toothpic]

Having trouble hearing you, are you saying it’s a lively game?

let’s recap: a guy put in 100 bucks to win 16 with a pair of 9s and a shit flush drawl on a paired board? Can I mail you 100 and randomly text you when I want to play my hand of bingo?

It was only a pair of 8s with a 9 kicker

 

[Frogzilla]

Having trouble hearing you, are you saying it’s a lively game?

let’s recap: a guy put in 100 bucks to win 16 with a pair of 9s and a shit flush drawl on a paired board? Can I mail you 100 and randomly text you when I want to play my hand of bingo?

in guys defense, sounds like he got called twice and had them both beat.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I get that its an action game -- Without being there I can only guess as to how much so.

I feel like even in the splashiest of games, people wake up when there is a massive overbet and a call in front of them.

 

[upNdown]

I feel like even in the splashiest of games, people wake up when there is a massive overbet and a call in front of them.

Haha. Personally I've made more horrible calls JUST because the guy in front of me called, than any other "unforced error."
Yes it's dumb. Yes I do it. So I have to expect in a splashy game, they'll do it too.