Supahnit Diary: September 2015 Trip (1 Viewer)

[Supahnit]

“Most of the money you’ll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.”

Lou Krieger

Just returned from my quarterly trip to Harrah’s Cherokee for 26 hours of poker over the weekend. The more I play, the more I realize that the most important attribute in making money in cash game poker is patience. My biggest mistakes have come from pushing in situations I should have thought things through and perhaps made a big fold.

As is usually the case, much of the overall success of a trip can come down to just a few hands. I will go over a few hands here to get your thoughts on my strategy.

Hand One

I am playing $1/$2 NL and am in the big blind with KK. UTG+1 opens to $10 with a stack of about $420 and everyone folds back to me. I re-raise to $25. I just have him covered at about $440. If he has a strong hand such as AK or 88 up to JJ, I might get a call. Otherwise I would just pick up the pot.

He re-raises to $108?!? Now I have a history with this particular player. I busted him in a big hand a few months ago when he pushed AK all in preflop against my AA for a $400+ pot. I don’t know if he remembered me as he showed no sign of recognition. I mostly remember him because he was annoying at the table. He is the one guy at the table that you just want to bust if you can.

So I have seen him push hard with AK in the recent past, but the stacks are twice as big this time around. I read him as very strong with that bet. It is a perfect way ahead or way behind case with a lot of money on the line. I beat almost all starting hands here, but I am a Supahnit after all.

What do you do??

 

[MrBo]

If your name is indeed accurate, fold pre obviously

Seriously though, in a vacuum I'd say shove > call (with the plan to snap off possible lesser hands/bluffs on most flops) > fold. I'm confused as to why you say he'll most likely just call your 3bet with AK given that he seems to have a history of stacking off with this. Given this history I'd be particularly inclined to want to get it in, though I'd say you are on the borderline of stack depth to avoid getting it in here if your spidey senses really are tingling. If you're really not sure, cut your loses and fold, otherwise I don't think there's any other play but to shove/puke/bink a King.

 

[DrStrange]

Yes, this is an ugly situation. Hero stands to lose more when losing and win less when winning. So let's consider some lines.

OMC folds here. Other folks might too. (knowing nothing about the villain, I would be in this camp.) I see villains range as quite tight, QQ+ and AK. Hero can just give up his $25 or fight for the pot OOP.

If Hero continues, he could raise{jam} or call. Raising seems like it lets villain fold worse and call with better hands. Classic reverse implied odds.

I prefer a call here, allowing Villain to overvalue JJ, QQ or AK and maybe stacking him just as Villain is going to stack hero when it is AA vs KK. The reraise is a big one - $88 raise into a $51 pot. Maybe he is over betting with AK or JJ?

So, I'd rate it call = fold > shove. Table reads, villain reads and Hero's table image would make a world of difference. Knowing essentially nothing, I like a fold over call.

DrStrange

 

[Ben]

OK Doug, you earned your name on this one.

Shove. Pass go twice. Collect $400. Anything else against a relative unknown (but known that he is capable of pushing AK preflop) is horrifically nitty. Why would he raise that much if he has AA? (Not saying that he can't ever have AA - just that I would rate it less likely due to the raise size.)

Also, have you EVER made it $25 over a $10 open OOP and just "picked up the pot" against someone who doesn't play against you regularly? I'm never folding in villain's spot preflop regardless of my hand; if it's particularly bad (or particularly good - doesn't have to be AA) I might even put in a big 4-bet - probably not THAT big, but hey, close enough.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Shove. If you don't go broke against AA you're not doing it right.

 

[joker80]

If you can't shove then you are playing the wrong stakes

 

[DrStrange]

So what hands are we hoping are going to call a $312 four-bet/shove into a $217 pot? It is one thing for villain to stack off with AK playing $200, but another for him to stack off playing twice as much. (If villain had started with $200 rather than $420, the final decision after Hero's shove would be calling $92 to win $401, a snap call with AK.)

Hero is angling to win $129 in the pot before he acts but is risking $395. I presume there is some hope villain is going to call the over-bet shove with worse than KK but Hero is trying to overcome 3-1 reverse implied odds. That seems like we are asking for a lot.

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I've found when you overshove, people tend to frequently put you on AK exclusively. So you may get a call from any pocket pair really.

 

[Mr Tree]

I agree with everything Doc is saying but to muddy the waters you have to consider the general level of insanity at the $1/$2 table in Cherokee. I have seen people play for stacks about this deep preflop with J8 off (and flop the straight but that's another story). So the range of calling hands may be wider than what would reasonably be expected.

 

[DrStrange]

Ok - this type of table seems a lot more like my home 1-2 game than the live casino games I sat in. I took the fact the field folded to a $10 preflop raise as an indication this game was typical of the tighter casino games of my experience.

DrStrange

 

[Supahnit]

Thank you all for your responses.

I put the villain on a very strong hand based on my history with him. I had not seen him get out of line during the hour or so I played with him before this hand. I felt AA was a strong possibility, but he might make this move with AK or QQ. I was not ready to shove my whole stack and potentially be dominated.

I just couldn’t fold KK so I decided to call his bet and check any flop to see how he would respond. While this would counterfeit me if he played with AK and an A hit the flop, I was willing to take the chance.

Flop: Kd Js 2c…. Its ON!

I decide to check and villain bets $125. This bet narrowed his likely range to AA and AK. I decide to smooth call after a dramatic pause.

Turn 5d. I check again and villain checks. I think he is trying to set the hook to get me on the river.

River 5s. I lock up a full house with Kings over Fives and the nuts (unless he was insane enough to play pocket 5s - .00001% chance).

I bet $125 and he ships his remaining stack. I quickly call and bust his hand AA for two pair – Aces and Fives. $917 pot. He sits there stunned for a minute or two then exits stage left.

Ben, I guess I earned my nickname with this hand but my reasoning followed DrStrange’s analysis. While the Cherokee games can get crazy, this was not one of those times and the table (and especially the villain) was not playing many pots. Against a known LAG, I definitely would have shipped my stack, but not against this opponent.

I ended up getting very lucky on this hand. I think I would have called the $125 flop bet if cards lower than a Q hit the flop and folded if an A hit the flop. I would have found a fold a turn and/or river bet I think.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

So were you set mining with the kings? if so, you didn't have the right odds, and probably should have folded. Sure he happened to have AA, but his range has to be wider than just that. What do you do if the flop is queen high? Do you still get it all in at some point? I understand it worked out for you in this instance, but if you got it in all pre you would have still flopped top set and rivered a boat.

 

[Mr Tree]

This is what I was wondering. Doug let's say the flop comes 9 7 2 rainbow. You check and he bets the same $125. Honestly, what do you do then?

 

[DrStrange]

If Hero takes the "call" option preflop, he isn't set mining, he is trying to get villain pot committed with his whole range. So if the flop comes 9 7 2, the plan is to check and expect villain to c-bet with his whole range. That puts $465 in the pot and villain playing $187 behind. So Hero's plan is check/jam on the flop.

DrStrange

 

[MrBo]

Worked out this time, but on a run-of-the-mill non-A flop (972r, T77, Q97, etc.) I'd have a hard time not stacking off against an unknown $1/2 opponent, especially after just calling pre-flop and disguising our hand to allow Villain to put more chips in with lesser pairs and bluff hands. Maybe with a post-flop SPR substantially higher than the one here, plus major spidey senses, and/or a certain board runout that may lessen our equity a fair amount. But yeah, like Chippy said, if you're not running Kings into Aces every now and then you're not truly enjoying all the thrills that poker has to offer (particularly putting it in pre-flop and then binking a 2-outer)

 

[DrStrange]

The pot is $217 vs $312 effective stacks ----> SPR of 1.4. If Hero calls the preflop bet, he needs to go to the flop as pot committed on a non-ace flop (and maybe is committed even then). This is no place for set mining.

DrStrange

 

[Mr Tree]

Worked out this time, but on a run-of-the-mill non-A flop (972r, T77, Q97, etc.) I'd have a hard time not stacking off against an unknown $1/2 opponent, especially after just calling pre-flop and disguising our hand to allow Villain to put more chips in with lesser pairs and bluff hands. Maybe with a post-flop SPR substantially higher than the one here, plus major spidey senses, and/or a certain board runout that may lessen our equity a fair amount. But yeah, like Chippy said, if you're not running Kings into Aces every now and then you're not truly enjoying all the thrills that poker has to offer (particularly putting it in pre-flop and then binking a 2-outer)

Actually if you are check raising all in on the flop I think it's the right play given Doc Strange's earlier thoughts.

If you shove on the flop you shove a lot of hands out you are beating so the range of hands you are facing in a call are very narrow. By check jamming you now have a far wider range that you can end all in with and all the hands you add you are dominating on almost all flops.

 

[MrBo]

Actually if you are check raising all in on the flop I think it's the right play given Doc Strange's earlier thoughts.

If you shove on the flop you shove a lot of hands out you are beating so the range of hands you are facing in a call are very narrow. By check jamming you now have a far wider range that you can end all in with and all the hands you add you are dominating on almost all flops.

Yeah I agree, just meant folding on any type of safe board does not seem +EV, but didn't specify how to get the chips in.

 

[Supahnit]

Ok, second and final hand from the trip.

Another table and different players. Two really good players at the table I am avoiding if possible, along with several clearly poor players. One other player has what looks like a TAG strategy over the past few hours of playing with him. He had pushed all in on me earlier with a $250+ stack on the flop after a $20 flop bet I made with top pair top kicker – which I promptly folded.

In this particular hand I am sitting with about $350 and this player is about $316. He is in early position and I am on the big blind. He leads out with just a call. A few other players call and I check in the BB with 10 4 off. The flop comes 10 4 6 rainbow. I bet out $15 and the villain calls.. everyone else folds. Turn is a two. I bet out $25. Villain raises all in for $300.

Ordinarily this is an easy fold. The problem is that he has done this same move to me before. Perhaps he has identified my nitty nature and is taking advantage. My hand is much stronger this time with top and middle pair.

What is the best play?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Fold. He could easily have 35 here, or a set. I suppose its possible he limped in with jacks or something, and doesn't want to see an overcard hit the river, but more likely he is spazzing out after hitting the nuts, and thinks you'll pay him off since you led out twice, and you're tight, so you must also have a very strong hand.

 

[Ben]

OK this is a tough one. REAL tough. Gonna need some more deets.

Did the deuce on the turn bring a flush draw?

How did he ship it? Instantly? Gave it some thought? Pretended to give it some thought for 10 seconds? Just say "all in" or push a bunch of chips forward? Seem comfortable?

You say he was playing TAG, but that doesn't tell the whole story. How often did you see him give up hands after the flop? Was he one of those guys who really tries to win every pot he is in? Did he make this overbet shove move against other players?

 

[Mr Tree]

Fold. I've been guilty of this thinking before. A guy pulls a move like this and you take it a little personal thinking this guy is targeting me. It usually has nothing to do with you and is more of a case that this player is a spaz when he makes a hand. If you later get evidence that he makes his kind of move without a hand you can reevaluate but based on what we know right now a weak two pair is feeling pretty light to me.

 

[Supahnit]

Good questions Ben..

I remember the flop was definitely rainbow. I cannot recall if the turn matched a suit or not. I remember thinking I was not worried about a flush draw. With his apparent TAG style, I did not consider seriously he might shove with flush draw.

He shipped it immediately. There was not any hesitation. We were on the PokerPro tables so I lose the ability to study physical betting mannerisms. He did seem comfortable. But he was not an emotional or expressive guy at the table at any point.

He had lost a few smaller pots with solid second best hands. The table tended to limp a lot so we all saw plenty of hands. He had built his starting stack from $150 to the current $316 with solid play and picking up pots with strong (but not all in) bets... except against me. I had not played with him before this session.

Mr. Tree.. that is something that I fight against all the time. It is tempting to target someone you think might be outplaying you and take the betting a bit too far. I made this mistake against one of the good opponents at this table early in the session when I took AK too far in a hand and lost about $70 of my starting $200 stack.

BTW.. this is unrelated to the hand, but I saw the "good" player I just mentioned call a $125 turn bet to hit his nut flush on the river (AJ) (with no pair) against a made straight on the turn. He basically stacked the guy and won a $700+ pot with what I thought was a VERY loose call. Just about made the poor guy cry.

 

[BGinGA]

Back to the OP hand for a moment.....

my reasoning followed DrStrange’s analysis. While the Cherokee games can get crazy, this was not one of those times and the table (and especially the villain) was not playing many pots. Against a known LAG, I definitely would have shipped my stack, but not against this opponent.

I ended up getting very lucky on this hand. I think I would have called the $125 flop bet if cards lower than a Q hit the flop and folded if an A hit the flop. I would have found a fold a turn and/or river bet I think.

Curious as to what supahnit does with the hand as played if an ace hits on the river instead of the 5..... Still leading out the river with $125? Still calling villain's jam?

I don't see you folding a set of Kings there, given that you are only beat with one hand (AA).

 

[DrStrange]

Folding a set with an SPR less than 2 on that type of board? No way that can be correct, Get it in and take your lumps if the Poker Gods decree it.

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Doc, I love your analysis, and I agree with you, but I want to hear what the supahnit would do.

 

[Ben]

OK - if 35 is in his range then presumably 46 and 24 would be as well. Any of those from a TAG in EP seems highly suspect though. If the flush card came in on the turn, this sure smells like it might be somebody who called on the flop with some piece (A6ss or whatever) and turned a flush draw to go with it. The snap-ship reeks of this... Of course, he could easily have limped with 44 or 66 and flopped a set, but if so it's a terrible line (but that doesn't mean he didn't take a terrible line.) Given the prior hand I give it more than a remote chance that it's just a random bluff as well. I dunno, it's close - if the turn brought 2 to a suit I think I have to look him up. If the board is still rainbow on the turn I make a painful fold... (make sure to ask him "if I fold will you show?")

 

[Supahnit]

Doc, I love your analysis, and I agree with you, but I want to hear what the supahnit would do.

On the original hand, if the flop was a blank, I would have checked to induce a continuation bet from the villain. When he bets, I would most likely shove at this point. I know that I beat AK with only two cards to come. If he checks back on the flop, I shove out with any card but an A on the turn. For me, this limits variance from a random A on 4 streets. If he has the AA.. so be it.

BG.. if a King doesn't hit the flop, I see no way the hand gets to the river. I am all in either on the flop or turn.

 

[Supahnit]

Ok, second and final hand from the trip.

Another table and different players. Two really good players at the table I am avoiding if possible, along with several clearly poor players. One other player has what looks like a TAG strategy over the past few hours of playing with him. He had pushed all in on me earlier with a $250+ stack on the flop after a $20 flop bet I made with top pair top kicker – which I promptly folded.

In this particular hand I am sitting with about $350 and this player is about $316. He is in early position and I am on the big blind. He leads out with just a call. A few other players call and I check in the BB with 10 4 off. The flop comes 10 4 6 rainbow. I bet out $15 and the villain calls.. everyone else folds. Turn is a two. I bet out $25. Villain raises all in for $300.

Ordinarily this is an easy fold. The problem is that he has done this same move to me before. Perhaps he has identified my nitty nature and is taking advantage. My hand is much stronger this time with top and middle pair.

What is the best play?

So after thinking about it for awhile. I decide to fold to the overbet shove. The villain is kind and shows me 3 5 offsuit for a straight on the turn. While I had up to 4 outs if I was convinced he had the straight, it would have been a bad call.

So I swallowed my pride, made the best play, and kept the $300 in my stack.

I ended up almost $950 in cash games and down $240 in tournament buyins.. net of $700 for the trip. Not too bad! My point before is if these two hands would have gone the other way, I would have had a breakeven trip at best. Patience!