Super bizzare hand at Resorts World hold em - WWYD!? (1 Viewer)

[dickzapper]

So I took my second trip up to RW Catskills and a bizzaro hand happened at 1-2 NL.


Prologue:

I waited for 5 hours for 2-2 PLO to open up and finally it got the call. The second hand at that table saw 5 players all-in on the turn (double suited board) for ~$2300 pot, nut spades scoops. This was the highlight of the following 6 hours until the game broke. I take a break to play table games for an hour before sitting at hold 'em before calling it a night (day).


Hand:

Newish casino in Upstate NY (no grand opening yet), ~7 A.M. Sunday morning. While the poker room had 20-25 tables running at midnight, now there is two tables of 1-2 and one table of 2-5 running. I sit at a 1-2 table to make it eight handed. Two players are dozing off between every hand. One speaks no English and not a single time during the game put in his small blind without dealer/player admonishment.

I am even on the day and in slight delirium after gambling for 12 straight hours. I ignore the fact that it is old-man-coffee time and donk off a buy-in swiftly in the first hour. After hours of PLO I'm playing NL as loose as ever. Take out a second buy-in and begin donking half it off as well before I start questioning why I sat at this table. I'm on the button and get dealt the and with 150 behind.

Early position raises to 7 and gets 3 callers. I know 69 is favorite among many players and it's real Don Quixote hours so I flat my button. SB falls asleep so his hand is ruled dead. Jk. BB is the youngest player at the table and re-raises to 17. Call, call, call, call, to me and of course, I flat and we're 6 to a flop, rake capped at 5 and the pot is $97.



BB goes all-in for $147.

Fold. Fold. Fold. Fold. It's to me with my and think for about 5 seconds, 'is there any way to call this?' Then, the BB tables his hand right in front of me!!

!!

I know that at other casinos, the floor would rule the BB just deaded his hand by exposing it to action. The dealer says my action is still live and I have the option to call. Most of the dealers here are new and I'm not sure what this one's actual rules are.


What do you do??????




Will post the conclusion in 24 hours.

 

[navels]

you're getting direct odds to call with a 12-out draw, right?

 

[inca911]

Depending on your personality, you could call the floor to see if they will rule the hand dead.

I fold. While you have (9+2+3)/47 + (9+2+3)/46 outs to make your flush, he also has 7 boat/quad outs two times (or 10 boat/quad outs if you make the flush on the turn) that have you drawing dead. I try to avoid coin flips if I think I'm the better player than the opponent.

Edit to add the straight draws. I still fold.

 

[ilovegravy]

I fold and ask the dealer to show the turn and river so I can hate myself if a heart falls.

 

[upNdown]

Depending on your personality, you could call the floor to see if they will rule the hand dead.

I fold. While you have 9/47 + 9/46 outs to make your flush, he also has 7 boat/quad outs two times that have you drawing dead. I try to avoid coin flips if I think I'm the better player than the opponent.

He’s also got 4 8’s to make a straight, right?
I think I’d have to call. It’s just too tempting to be the dick here, especially since you’re putting what, $133 into a $230 pot?

 

[navels]

duh, boat outs . . . so it is basically a zero EV decision.

since the villain is getting away with tabling his hand maybe you can get away with asking what the other players folded

 

[Psypher1000]

While you have 9/47 + 9/46 outs to make your flush

Are we ignoring the straight draw?

 

[moose]

You have 12 clean outs. Your odds to win by the river are 1:1.2

pot is your 133 remaining to call into 230 or 1:1.73

You have to call.

 

[navels]

but you also have to dodge 7 outs, it is very close.

 

[inca911]

Are we ignoring the straight draw?

Yep, I was missing the additional 5 straight outs twice (i.e., removing the one H straight out, as it's already included in the flush draw outs)! Edit

 

[fish72s]

I am not sure exactly how to calculate the redraw. I don't think its 7 outs twice since we have to first assume that
hero hits one of his outs. But even then the redraw has 7 outs on the turn to shut it down, or if hero hits on the
turn, then villain has a 10 out redraw.
So basically even when hero hits hit his 12 outer, he still loses 15 to 20% of the time.

I punched this one into the NLHE calculator. Hero wins 36% of the time.

 

[navels]

that's also what I got in PPT: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=ah7h5h&g=he&h1=6c9h&h2=acad&s=generic

wish i had more of these spots in memory.

 

[kmccormick100]

Heads up in a cash game you can expose your cards according to most rooms I’ve ever played in, no?

You’ve got 36% equity and need ~38% equity to call given the pot odds, so it’s almost break even, with you as a slight dog. If you wanna gamble to put a gross beat on him call, haha.

 

[fish72s]

Change the Ad to Kd and hero's % goes up to 48%.
So it seems like the redraw is worth 12%.
Interesting. That doesn't seem to jive with what seems like a minimum 7 out redraw.

 

[pltrgyst]

....That doesn't seem to jive with what seems like a minimum 7 out redraw.

Are you folks considering the turn and river pairing, whether the flush/straight hits or not?

 

[Psypher1000]

I think folding here is probably the smarter play - BUT - given the scenario above, smarts and sound play have no place at that table in that moment. So if I'm the hero, I boldly call and prepare to either collect my coffee money or walk away another BB down & left to think about what I've done.

 

[upNdown]

Are you folks considering the turn and river pairing, whether the flush/straight hits or not?

Given that this is a Super Bizarre hand, I fully expect the turn and river to both be 8’s.

 

[Psypher1000]

I fully expect the turn and river to both be 8’s.

 

[Steve Birrer]

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

I am folding

 

[BGinGA]

My quick table calculation:

Villain has 7 outs to boat (28%), so my 12 flush/straight outs (48%) are only good 72% of the time -- making me roughly 35% to win.

I need to call $127 to win $351, which is roughly 36%.

It's close, but I fold.

My runner-runner straight-flush draw sorta cancels out his extra runner-runner boat out on the river.


EDIT: calculations corrected for updated info regarding remaining stack size, but doesn't change the conclusion.

 

[dickzapper]

Heads up in a cash game you can expose your cards according to most rooms I’ve ever played in, no?

Once at Parx this happened to me and the other player's hand was ruled dead, heads up. But I don't want to put the details of that hand in this thread.

 

[fish72s]

Are you folks considering the turn and river pairing, whether the flush/straight hits or not?

I'm only considering the conditional probably of the redraw. The condition being when the hero hits his card. (the definition of a 'redraw')
At first I was thinking it would be EITHER a 10 out redraw (if the hero hits the turn) OR a 7 out redraw which I was estimating to be 15-20%.
But this didn't match the 12% from the poker calculator (the difference in hero's odds vs AA and AK)

We need to actually factor in hero's odds first before calculating the redraw odds.

So if hero hits his 12 outer on the turn its : 12/45 * 10/44 = 6%
and
if hero hits the river : 7/45 * 12/44 = 4%
(in other words we don't want to count the times that villain boats on the turn, but the hero MISSES the river.)

So this is 10% which I think is right but is still off by 2% from the odds calculator.
Anyone have any idea where that last 2% is coming from ?

 

[Anthony Martino]

You're already playing like shit, why stop now? Put that beat on him, this is what some players live for!

 

[fish72s]

If you are going to be playing with this guy for a while then I would definitely
factor in the implied tilt odds and make the call

The guy's an idiot. If he doesn't show you his cards this is a snap-fold.

 

[moose]

Even face up, @Anthony Martino reads him for a bluff and calls 100% of the time.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Even face up, @Anthony Martino reads him for a bluff and calls 100% of the time.

 

[flipupchipup]

You're already playing like shit, why stop now?

Still cleaning coffee up from my keyboard and monitor. Well played.

 

[200 Motels]

EDIT: I might be wrong but $224 in the pot (97+ 127)and it costs $127 to call. Your pot odds are 1.76:1. You need 1.77:1 to call. Pretty close.

I think I'm figuring that accurately. Can anyone confirm?

 

[dickzapper]

Clarification: the player's tabling in front of me was [seemingly] not intentional. Also at that point I have exactly 127 to call of 147. Although doing precise calculations here isn't really in the spirit of this question.

 

[BGinGA]

If you started with 150 and called 17 preflop, don't you have 133 back?