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Super bizzare hand at Resorts World hold em - WWYD!? (2 Viewers)

also i would *never* ask the floor to declare the villain's hand dead
 
fish72s said:
I'm only considering the conditional probably of the redraw. The condition being when the hero hits his card. (the definition of a 'redraw')
At first I was thinking it would be EITHER a 10 out redraw (if the hero hits the turn) OR a 7 out redraw which I was estimating to be 15-20%.
But this didn't match the 12% from the poker calculator (the difference in hero's odds vs AA and AK)

We need to actually factor in hero's odds first before calculating the redraw odds.

So if hero hits his 12 outer on the turn its : 12/45 * 10/44 = 6%
and
if hero hits the river : 7/45 * 12/44 = 4%
(in other words we don't want to count the times that villain boats on the turn, but the hero MISSES the river.)

So this is 10% which I think is right but is still off by 2% from the odds calculator.
Anyone have any idea where that last 2% is coming from ?
Click to expand...
Too much unneccessary math, imo. Just calculate how often hero hits (X), and then calulate how often villain hits (Y). Hero only wins the percentage of time that he hits and villain doesn't -- X * (1-Y).
 
Well, if you were going to play better after this hand I would say it would be a great spot to call and gamble because it will definitely create an image that could get you paid off in future hands.

But as it stands you're overtired and overplaying hands and throwing away buyins by your own account, so I don't believe there is future equity to be realized here.

That being said, I think you should call, win and ask the guy for his Twitter so you can tag him in the hand when you post it, and then immediately rack up and leave, putting the guy with Aces on crazy monkey tilt
 
BGinGA said:
Too much unneccessary math, imo. Just calculate how often hero hits (X), and then calulate how often villain hits (Y). Hero only wins the percentage of time that he hits and villain doesn't -- X * (1-Y).
Click to expand...

I didn't mean to suggest that people should break out the calculator at the table (if they could).
I just thought it was an interesting math problem. Conditional probability sometimes gets tricky:)

But I think its nice to have an idea of how much affect the boat redraw has on hero's odds.
10% is actually a little lower than I would have thought by running back of the envelope numbers.
 
colter ripton said:
I'd table my hand and ask him if he wants me to call. It's about even money so fuck It go with whatever he decides. You know if he asks for a call your going to felt him. Lol
Click to expand...

The table was in shock. Dealer says live action and everyone turns to me. I say to the guy, "wellll I have a heart in my hand... and with this many folds there are a lot of hearts in the deck..."

He says, "well ya know then I could still make a full house." His manner revealed that he wanted me to fold, I was certain.
 
It's weird to be referred to as the hero in this thread because at that moment I felt like a superb villian. He may have even referenced bad beats earlier in the night in a liminal or subliminal plea to fold. I'm made to feel super evil despite the situation being forced upon me. With so much free info I feel like calling is diabolical. I can't remember if he communicated to me verbally or telepathically, but he was predicting that if I called he was already lost.
 
Anthony Martino said:
That being said, I think you should call, win and ask the guy for his Twitter so you can tag him in the hand when you post it, and then immediately rack up and leave, putting the guy with Aces on crazy monkey tilt
Click to expand...

Can confirm. At last week's 1/2NL game, a player called a $65 3-bet pre with 72 vs my KK, took my remaining $100 when I jammed the J22 flop, posted the hand on LinkedIn and MySpace, and I was fired today for being a terrible poker player because I "should have felt it coming and folded pre."

Now that I've got that out of my system... It's essentially a 0EV spot, so do what you feel. Thanks to @BGinGA for solid at-the-table math, which I sometimes struggle with in the heat of the moment.
 
Extra clarification: in case anyone isn't sure, what it appears had happened was that he thought it was folded to him and tabled his hand as a showboat move. It certainly wasn't a shoot on me or something, he definitely thought the hand was completed. In a way his hand may technically be a bluff. Even without showing, if you think about he definitely doesn't have nut hearts here because then why go all in and demand 5 more players fold? I think he thought he basically got away with a semi-bluff bet and threw them down in a "haha I finally win!" premature moment.
 
dickzapper said:
The table was in shock. Dealer says live action and everyone turns to me. I say to the guy, "wellll I have a heart in my hand... and with this many folds there are a lot of hearts in the deck..."

He says, "well ya know then I could still make a full house." His manner revealed that he wanted me to fold, I was certain.
Click to expand...
I mean, what he wants is irrelevant. He knows less than you and he may well be an idiot.
 
dickzapper said:
Extra clarification: in case anyone isn't sure, what it appears had happened was that he thought it was folded to him and tabled his hand as a showboat move. It certainly wasn't a shoot on me or something, he definitely thought the hand was completed. In a way his hand may technically be a bluff. Even without showing, if you think about he definitely doesn't have nut hearts here because then why go all in and demand 5 more players fold? I think he thought he basically got away with a semi-bluff bet and threw them down in a "haha I finally win!" premature moment.
Click to expand...


No way did he not do this purposely. He is trying take the pot down and stop action. He knows that he has boat draw and does not want any callers on the wet board. I’ve done this same move against friendly home games because I specifically don’t want people drawing against my made hand.
 
joeyshin said:
No way did he not do this purposely.
Click to expand...

It's possible but I strongly doubt it. He was in the 9 seat and not looking at me at all in the 7. All his attention was on the pot after the 6 seat folded. I possibly was even tenting my hand over my cards, obscurring them slightly but can't recall as I do do that some times. I'm 99% sure it was unintenional the way everything played out. The demeanor after the tabling was that of a sad puppy begging not to be shot by a 12-guage. I could be wrong but if so he deserves an oscar, I swear.
 
DrStrange said:
I can't say any hand with 65% equity is a semi-bluff. Sounds more like betting for value to me.
Click to expand...

Mr. Set-of-Aces may think it was a semi-bluff, because "the draws always get there." Some players think this way, and that's why you'll see pocket aces jam $200 into a $23 pot preflop.

Hell, some nights I feel that way even though I know the math. :rolleyes:
 
Conclusion:



I think, for a second, about the time this happened to me previously; but calling the floor here doesn't enter my mind. The unusual heat of the poker room is intensified by the glare of the entire table. The sleeper in seat 6 turns his chair to face me for the first time in the entire session. The player is still standing. He got out of his chair as he threw down the aces and now clutches the rail and leans over in anticipation. The hard-of-sight non-English speaker is standing and leaning over the other end of the table as well. He must have been wearing his reading glasses.

I have info on 12 cards including the 2 most important ones. Figure most likely no one folded the :kh:, nearly certainly no one folded two hearts, and most likely someone folded the :ac: as well. Probably the initial raiser, judging by his demeanor as he folded. I figure there are 9 hearts in the stub if not 10. It's been 45 seconds since the player tabled his hand.

I feel like the villain, but if I fold, then I become the player villainized. I tell the player, "I might have to call here."

He shrugs and says, "Ugh this is so sick. Do what you gotta do, but that's it, if I lose I'm leaving."

@Anthony Martino hit it right on the head.

I plunk down my chips in a single stack and flip over my :6s::9h:. The table choruses an, "Oooohhh!!," as if a 6th grade fist-fight is about to break out after a yo mama joke.

"This is so fuckin' sick."

The dealer subscribes to the Band-Aid psychology and snaps out two quickly.

"Fuuhlick, SNAP."

Heart.

"Fuuhlick, SNAP."

Brick. Lowball, black. Never registered what the cards actually were.

And here they are:
20180424_141739_Burst01.jpg


And you can have one for the low, low price of $29.99!!!

He storms away mumbling, "so fuckin sick," as he passes behind me.

I rack up 30 mins later and take my chips to 3 card poker to relax after this rediculous trip. Squeeze out a 222 and leave RWC with maybe 100 bucks profit after 15 hours non-stop gambling.

Snapchat-1463195945.jpg


Next weekend is Borgata for a friend's cousin's bachelor party. Haven't visited there since last March. Hoping to roll out the short stack strats at 2-5 PLO.
 
I lost a big hand in a cash game recently - not as dramatic but same idea. It wasn’t aces, it was kings or queens, but the suited flop made my set, and I was already dead, but didn’t know it until I got all my chips in.
Poker can be mean.
 
Those 1s are sweet. If they weren't RHC, you could have made a nice profit by not cashing out, and posting them up here - probably still could, as those are some super-sharp edges and white chips without hooker-juice spots are hard to come by.
 

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