Tell me how badly I played this hand... (2 Viewers)

[Trihonda]

Live 1/2 Local Casino. 8 players at the table. I'm in the CO holding . I'm sitting on roughly $300.

Villain 1 in the BB has around $125. Crafty agro player. Table has turned a bit nitty the last hour, and he's visibly bored. He has also slowed down some, after I caught him bluffing off most of his chips (maybe an hour earlier).

Villain 2 is UTG with around $200. He's also agro, and he and V1 have been tangling with each other early on. I've observed him opening with garbage (that hit the board hard) on a couple occasions.

Table limps around for $2 (horrible, I know). I limp in, and the BB (V1) bumps it to $10. Everyone calls - 6 players see the flop $60 in the pot).

Flop comes

V1 checks...?

UTQ pounces with a $20 bet. 2 people call the $20, it's up to me. I think about raising with my monster draws, but decide (right or wrong) that I have the type of hand that I'm ok if more people are involved. And I have position, and other folks are leading the way. I flat and the button flats. There's $140 in the pot.

It's back on V1 who C/R's for $115 (all in). It folds around to me, and the button appears poised to fold as well. I have a $95 decision to make... $235 in the pot currently.

The villain certainly has a made hand. 2pr and sets are in his range. He's not likely doing this with 1pr holdings like AQ. However, he's already demonstrated his ability to bluff big. But my read is he's not bluffing.

I've run the numbers, but at the time, it seemed like a bit of a coin flip, no matter what the villain is holding (a bit gambly IMHO). Do people make this call here?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I would jam here, it looks super strong and there is a lot of dead money in the pot.

 

[upNdown]

You have two chances at 17 outs to a 5-card hand? Aren't those odds in your favor?

 

[Trihonda]

I would jam here, it looks super strong and there is a lot of dead money in the pot.

I'd be calling V1's all-in, and there'd be no more action. The only player left to act after me is the button, and his cards are literally half over the bet line (in his hand, getting ready to pitch them in the muck).

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Ok, well call then. Like I said, there is a lot of dead money in the pot.

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

Yeah, I call that.

 

[Shaggy]

15 outs = ~30% with one card to come... ~60% with two cards to come. Your draw is 60/40 = 1.5:1 favorite... you need the pot to be laying you at least 1.5:1 to make this profitable.

pot is laying you 235/95 = 2.47:1... easy call.

 

[mummel]

Call if you think the button is a guaranteed fold, otherwise jam.

You have two chances at 17 outs to a 5-card hand? Aren't those odds in your favor?

How do you calculate 17 outs? Im still learning how to do this, but I see 9 for the flush + 3 other jacks + 3 other 6s = 15 x 4% = 60% change of hitting your hand vs 28% pot equity right?

I was always terrible at math haha.

 

[upNdown]

15 outs = ~30% with one card to come... ~60% with two cards to come. Your draw is 60/40 = 1.5:1 favorite... you need the pot to be laying you at least 1.5:1 to make this profitable.

pot is laying you 235/95 = 2.47:1... easy call.

I wonder how this calculation changes if you assume he's got 2 pair or a set, cause then he has full house outs.

And yeah, it's 16 outs. My bad.

15. Whatever. Point is he's still more likely than not to make a straight or a flush.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

If you're a 60% favorite you don't need anything in the pot at all to get it in and be profitable. You're a dog vs a set, but even if he flipped over QQ you're getting the right odds to call.

 

[DrStrange]

I agree, go all-in. This is about as good as T9s can flop. There is a lot of dead money. All the money is going in on the flop, when Hero's drawing equity is at its maximum.

I do not accept the premise that villain one holds two pair +. He has to have some one pair hands and some nasty combo draw/pair hands in the range. Plus V1 could be at the point in the night where he goes #$@& it and jams all in planning to win big or go home with a huge range of hands.

 

[Shaggy]

15 outs...

9 flush outs (including 6h and Jh)
6 straight outs (3x 6 + 3x J... excluding 6h and Jh counted above)

 

[oONemoOo]

Played correctly in my opinion

Easy call here,
You have to think EV and not variance = the call here is EV++. Variance is high but should not be taken into account in your decision. In the long run, you are winning big by calling.
You have always the odds against his range which is probably really wide
=> favorite or big favorite against pair(s) and his whole bluffing range
=> flipping against sets
=> just little Under dog vs higher flush draw I guess

 

[Shaggy]

If you're a 60% favorite you don't need anything in the pot at all to get it in and be profitable. You're a dog vs a set, but even if he flipped over QQ you're getting the right odds to call.

you are correct... normally I'm not drawing as the favorite.

 

[Ronoh]

Plus V1 could be at the point in the night where he goes #$@& it and jams all in planning to win big or go home with a huge range of hands.

Irv, I was never IN aisle seven, I'm tellin ya...

 

[Phobos223]

:

 

[AlPresidente]

Your outs aren't all clean. Worst case (I think) vs 1 opponent is villain has Jh7h. You only have 35% equity there & are still getting the right price.

 

[Shaggy]

As long as you didn't fold, you played the hand fine.

 

[mummel]

Not to thread jack, but this got me thinking. Flipped around, how much would villian have to bet to force Tri to fold? Is there a simple formula for this vs having to calculate everything backwards, because I can never do it that way. My brains starts to fry.

For example, we know there is $140 in the pot, and say we put Tri on 15 outs, if I was the villian, is there a simple way/rule to calculate my bet to force Tri's fold? TY.

 

[Ronoh]

Your outs aren't all clean. Worst case (I think) vs 1 opponent is villain has Jh7h. You only have 35% equity there & are still getting the right price.

J6hh would be worse. He's already got the lead, pairing the 7 doesn't much matter.

 

[Ronoh]

J6hh would be worse. He's already got the lead, pairing the 7 doesn't much matter.

Yeah, scratch that.

 

[mummel]

I think he has a set of queens. What other hands would be bomb it like that?

 

[Trihonda]

As long as you didn't fold, you played the hand fine.

Not to drag this on, but I call (risking $95 more to win $235 in dead money). I have the right odds IMHO. But it just felt awfully gamboly at the time.

V1 flips over for 2pr, which holds as the board bricks out.

I ran the numbers and...
Against a set I was 41/59
Against 2pr I was ahead 51/49
Against I was 40/60ish.

I assumed he had a 2pr+ hand since he led out pre, and checked his c-bet option (atypical of this guy).

 

[Shaggy]

Not to thread jack, but this got me thinking. Flipped around, how much would villian have to bet to force Tri to fold? Is there a simple formula for this vs having to calculate everything backwards, because I can never do it that way. My brains starts to fry.

For example, we know there is $140 in the pot, and say we put Tri on 15 outs, if I was the villian, is there a simple way/rule to calculate my bet to force Tri's fold? TY.

To follow your threadjack, the goal of the bet is to force the opponent to make a mistake. As Chippy pointed out, with Tri being the favorite, there is no bet amount that would be correct to fold to... so the induced "mistake" is getting Tri to fold.

My guess is based on the title of this thread, a check-raise to $115 ($95 more) was the right amount to get Tri to fold. (edit... I see Tri called... good).

In a general sense, if you are looking to bet an amount that would make it wrong for the opponent to call (price them out)... a half-pot bet is usually a good start. Let's pretend you figure the opponent to be on a flush draw... 9 outs. He has 18% with one card to come... let's round that to 20% to make the math easy. He is an 80/20 = 4:1 dog. If you bet half pot, he is getting laid 3:1... not enough for him to correctly call... assuming you don't pay off his bet (or raise) when he hits (implied odds).

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Not to drag this on, but I call (risking $95 more to win $235 in dead money). I have the right odds IMHO. But it just felt awfully gamboly at the time.

V1 flips over for 2pr, which holds as the board bricks out.

I ran the numbers and...
Against a set I was 41/59
Against 2pr I was ahead 51/49
Against I was 40/60ish.

I assumed he had a 2pr+ hand since he led out pre, and checked his c-bet option (atypical of this guy).

Nope, you played it fine. With the amount in the pot, you only need 30% ish equity, and there is no hand he could have that has you beat that badly. Even against J6hh you are still 36% to win the hand. Over the long haul, if you ran out this hand 1000 times, you would make money.

 

[mummel]

To follow your threadjack, the goal of the bet is to force the opponent to make a mistake. As Chippy pointed out, with Tri being the favorite, there is no bet amount that would be correct to fold to... so the induced "mistake" is getting Tri to fold. (edit... I see Tri called... good).

My guess is based on the title of this thread, a check-raise to $115 ($95 more) was the right amount to get Tri to fold.

In a general sense, if you are looking to bet an amount that would make it wrong for the opponent to call (price them out)... a half-pot bet is usually a good start. Let's pretend you figure the opponent to be on a flush draw... 9 outs. He has 18% with one card to come... let's round that to 20% to make the math easy. He is an 80/20 = 4:1 dog. If you bet half pot, he is getting laid 3:1... not enough... assuming you don't pay off his bet (or raise) when he hits (implied odds).

Cool thanks. But doesnt betting 50% of the pot give 4:1 (i.e. pot is $100, I bet $50, that means you would need to bet $50 to get back $200 ($100+$50+$50).

 

[DJ Mack]

I don't see any mistakes here. Even when the odds are in your favor, they're just that: odds unless they're 100%. You're going to lose sometimes even when they are in your favor, just as you're sometimes going to win when they're not.

 

[Trihonda]

Funny story about how I got V1 earlier in the session... He's an agro player, wearing one of those new fancy criss-cross high neck sweaters. Headphones, sun glasses, looks like a euro internet wizard. I'm extremely skerred...

Anyway, I've been watching him for a while, and I'm in the bb with V1 bumps it to $10 and there's enough callers to price me in. I come along for $8 more.

Flop comes , and V1 leads out for $15, everyone folds, I make the call. Total table read here, but V1 looks off. I am ranging him on BIG cards, AK, AQ, etc..

Turn is a , giving me the nut draw. V1 fires $45, and I call.

River is a , and V1 slides a barrel of $5's into the middle (with $75 behind). I actually tank. My gut is screaming he's bluffing, but it's a lotta money if I'm wrong. I eventually make the call with a pair of 5's, and V1 turns over .

Was great to catch him bluffing, and let him know I could read his sooouuulll (like an open book)!!!!

 

[Shaggy]

Cool thanks. But doesnt betting 50% of the pot give 4:1 (i.e. pot is $100, I bet $50, that means you would need to bet $50 to get back $200 ($100+$50+$50).

nope... the villain is calling $50 to win $150 (not $200). He isn't winning his own money. Think of it this way, he is paying $50 for a chance to win $150.

 

[mummel]

Funny story about how I got V1 earlier in the session... He's an agro player, wearing one of those new fancy criss-cross high neck sweaters. Headphones, sun glasses, looks like a euro internet wizard. I'm extremely skerred...

Anyway, I've been watching him for a while, and I'm in the bb with V1 bumps it to $10 and there's enough callers to price me in. I come along for $8 more.

Flop comes , and V1 leads out for $15, everyone folds, I make the call. Total table read here, but V1 looks off. I am ranging him on BIG cards, AK, AQ, etc..

Turn is a , giving me the nut draw. V1 fires $45, and I call.

River is a , and V1 slides a barrel of $5's into the middle (with $75 behind). I actually tank. My gut is screaming he's bluffing, but it's a lotta money if I'm wrong. I eventually make the call with a pair of 5's, and V1 turns over .

Was great to catch him bluffing, and let him know I could read his sooouuulll (like an open book)!!!!

What did he think he was representing?