Tell me how badly I played this hand... (1 Viewer)

[Trihonda]

nope... the villain is calling $50 to win $150 (not $200). He isn't winning his own money. Think of it this way, he is paying $50 for a chance to win $150.

Yup, just like I was calling $95 to win a pot of $235, even though the pot would actually have been $330 after I called.

 

[Trihonda]

What did he think he was representing?

big over-pair maybe? Don't know, but he looked uncomfortable. He didn't look confident that he'd be seeing his barrel of $5's anytime soon.

 

[mummel]

nope... the villain is calling $50 to win $150 (not $200). He isn't winning his own money. Think of it this way, he is paying $50 for a chance to win $150.

I thought your probability of hitting your outs (rule of 4 & 2 to calculate %s), needs to be greater than your breakeven % (100% / pot odds added together which is 3+1 in this case) to make a good call?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I thought your probability of hitting your outs (rule of 4 & 2 to calculate %s), needs to be greater than your breakeven % (100% / pot odds added together which is 3+1 in this case) to make a good call?

To calculate your equity, you divide the amount to call by the sum of the amount already in the pot and the amount to call. In this case, 95/(235+95) or 95/330 comes out to 28.79%. The worst possible cards he can have still have you winning 36% of the time, so like I said before even if he flips his hand face up your 36% equity is still better than the pot equity (you only need to win 29% to break even). When you take into account his range of possible holdings, you probably are closer to 45% or 50% equity against all hands he can hold, so it becomes an even easier call to make.

 

[jbutler]

To calculate your equity, you divide the amount to call by the sum of the amount already in the pot and the amount to call. In this case, 95/(235+95) or 95/330 comes out to 28.79%. The worst possible cards he can have still have you winning 36% of the time, so like I said before even if he flips his hand face up your 36% equity is still better than the pot equity (you only need to win 29% to break even). When you take into account his range of possible holdings, you probably are closer to 45% or 50% equity against all hands he can hold, so it becomes an even easier call to make.

Spoiler

 

[mummel]

So on the turn, Tri has 15 outs = 30% chance of hitting his nut flush (using the rule of 2)

And his breakeven % to call the bet = 100 / ($235/$95 + 1) = 29%

So 30% > 29% so I guess this is a borderline call. Definitely gambling at this point.

And to follow up on my previous question on what % of the pot to bet to push someone off of trying to chase their flush. Villian bet 40%, which was not enough on the turn. I assume if he bet say $150 vs $95 (63% of the pot) then try would have folded.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

So on the turn, Tri has 15 outs = 30% chance of hitting his nut flush (using the rule of 2)

And his breakeven % to call the bet = 100 / ($235/$95 + 1) = 29%

So 30% > 29% so I guess this is a borderline call. Definitely gambling at this point.

Unless I completely misread the hand, they got it in on the flop.

 

[mummel]

Unless I completely misread the hand, they got it in on the flop.

Yeah FFS you are correct, so:

60% chance of hitting his nut flush (using the rule of 4)

And his breakeven % to call the bet = 100 / ($235/$95 + 1) = 29%

So 60% > 29% = solid call

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

He's not quite 60%, because villain's range includes sets, two pair hands, and larger flush draws where his equity isn't quite so high. In fact, villain's range may even be more skewed towards these stronger hands (though not necessarily given past history). Regardless, Hero is definitely getting great odds to call, and will make money with this call over the long haul.

 

[AlPresidente]

Yeah, scratch that.

I thought that after posting but ran them through pokerstove and J7hh is marginally worse for some reason (as well as being

J6hh would be worse. He's already got the lead, pairing the 7 doesn't much matter.

I thought that after posting, but ran it through pokerstove and J7hh is marginally worse for whatever reason. It's also a more plausible hand for him to act like this with.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I thought that after posting but ran them through pokerstove and J7hh is marginally worse for some reason (as well as being

I thought that after posting, but ran it through pokerstove and J7hh is marginally worse for whatever reason. It's also a more plausible hand for him to act like this with.

Probably because they block the same flushes, but J7 can hit a boat redraw if hero hits a 7 on the turn (or conversely if a 7 peels on the turn it takes away some of heroes outs).

 

[courage]

To calculate your equity, you divide the amount to call by the sum of the amount already in the pot and the amount to call. In this case, 95/(235+95) or 95/330 comes out to 28.79%. The worst possible cards he can have still have you winning 36% of the time, so like I said before even if he flips his hand face up your 36% equity is still better than the pot equity (you only need to win 29% to break even). When you take into account his range of possible holdings, you probably are closer to 45% or 50% equity against all hands he can hold, so it becomes an even easier call to make.

 

[jbutler]

So on the turn, Tri has 15 outs = 30% chance of hitting his nut flush (using the rule of 2)

And his breakeven % to call the bet = 100 / ($235/$95 + 1) = 29%

So 30% > 29% so I guess this is a borderline call. Definitely gambling at this point.

And to follow up on my previous question on what % of the pot to bet to push someone off of trying to chase their flush. Villian bet 40%, which was not enough on the turn. I assume if he bet say $150 vs $95 (63% of the pot) then try would have folded.

This hand - or at least this particular misreading of this hand - is illustrative of why people should be wary of using the "rule of 2" or "rule of 4." It's inaccurate.

Taking the above to be true for the purposes of this discussion (i.e., considering an alternative where the money goes in on the turn), hero had 15 outs with one card to come. The "rule of 2" would tell you that you're 30% to hit. If you need to be getting 29% in order to call, you can easily make a case for folding on the theory that you're playing live poker and you're not interested in mere flips. But if you actually do the math you'll see that with 15 outs and 46 unseen cards, you're 33% to hit.

Giving up 4% equity is not a small thing, particularly if you're really putting in hours at the table.

 

[Shaggy]

I like where this thread is going. I happen to use the rule of 2 (or 4) for calculating these drawing situations... because it is relatively simple. I am not good at doing math in my head (funny, I'm an engineer). I will round the results so that I can calculate them (as illustrated in my posts in this thread).

Can one of you equity guys walk me through the "table math" that you actually do at the table in a similar situation? Are you really dividing 95/330?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Yeah, but I'm really good at math

 

[mummel]

I like where this thread is going. I happen to use the rule of 2 (or 4) for calculating these drawing situations... because it is relatively simple. I am not good at doing math in my head (funny, I'm an engineer). I will round the results so that I can calculate them (as illustrated in my posts in this thread).

Can one of you equity guys walk me through the "table math" that you actually do at the table in a similar situation? Are you really dividing 95/330?

Im with you. Im not good at math, plus add some whiskey shots and I come off the rails completely. I need some rules to at least get a fair shot at calculating odds.

 

[AlPresidente]

I like where this thread is going. I happen to use the rule of 2 (or 4) for calculating these drawing situations... because it is relatively simple. I am not good at doing math in my head (funny, I'm an engineer). I will round the results so that I can calculate them (as illustrated in my posts in this thread).

Can one of you equity guys walk me through the "table math" that you actually do at the table in a similar situation? Are you really dividing 95/330?

Roughly & that's an easy one. Multiply by 3 and you get 285/990 which is 30% near as dammit.

 

[Shaggy]

Roughly & that's an easy one. Multiply by 3 and you get 285/990 which is 30% near as dammit.

well... when I double my outs... I get 30%... so...

 

[onerand]

Nice call in hand 2. Hand 1 shovel it in. The shortcut calculation for outs to percent is quite accurate 12, maybe 13 outs or less. Less accurate for 15 outs, but then you have 15 outs.

 

[riotouslevity]

Given seat 1 is crafty agro and it's just u and him you can call. Because you may have 15 outs to run twice. And if u lose you can get your money back later. Vs a nit would fold.

PS: would have pot raised or folded the $20 bet and avoided having to make this decision.

 

[Trihonda]

Easy call. What more do you want with those cards?

Truthfully, I want to see the next few cards pretty cheaply, hit my draw, then get everyone to put every last penny they have into the middle...