The Retirement Planning/ Investment/ Savings Thread (2 Viewers)

Hi Friends,

If I bought say 35k worth of chips and the market falls from say 600 to 500, does that mean I effectively saved a portion of my portfolio from the dip downfall?

Like the alternative wouldve been i spent 35k on stocks that are now worth 30k right?
 
Sure, you missed some of that upside being in cash. About to miss all that downside though. Grab your socks and drop your stocks cuz here it comes.
 
Anyone have any suggestions for promising target stocks to acquire once it appears the worst of the sell off is done?
 
Lol.....anybody? Anybody else?

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This last month illustrates the value of diversification. My equities got slaughtered. My other holdings did better, and the bonds showed a small profit. Diversification also makes for low stress. I didn't make the huge gains other people did with higher risk profiles. On the other hand, my losses aren't enough to make me lose sleep.

Given the huge levels of uncertainty, to the extent we aren't even sure what the rules of the game are going to be . . . I wouldn't recommend buying any specific equity. (As might be expected given I only hold index funds for equity investments.)

In 2022 I was advocating buying the dips in the US equity markets in another thread. I ended up with an average purchase price of 3,800 on the S&P. I am not looking for an entry point to the US markets at the moment at S&P = 5,000.

You do you. Me? I am just going to stand around and do nothing. I'd be plenty happy if S&P = 5,000 was the bottom. I might reconsider if the S&P fell far below that level.

The average bear market decline is ~22%. Looks like the market is set to open tomorrow pretty close to 22% off its peak. That is not the worst case, just the average. The worst bear market in the last century was down 89% from 1929 - 1933. It didn't recover until the 1950's.

Time is your friend. If you are in your 30's, just keep plugging away and averaging down with periodic purchases. Don't panic, you are getting to buy some nice investments at a big discount. All will be fine by the time you start thinking retirement. It is only us old folks who are about to try to live off our investments who might have good reason to be a bit worried.

Doing nothing while everyone else panics is underrated -=- DrStrange
 
Best year for returns was 2024. If you - like others know how Tariff Taxes function, Like Raising prices and causing inflation ( like most americas should know ) in Feb 2025 with tariffs talks and some implemented - you should have shorted everything, all indexes, and ( selling ) Option Puts, and moved Long term positions to shorts.

If you did that - like most - Feb of 2025 was better than all of 2024 combined - and March thru today was better than February.

Inverse and Short ETF's helps.

But like I say - your milage may vary.
 
DrStrange said:
This last month illustrates the value of diversification. My equities got slaughtered. My other holdings did better, and the bonds showed a small profit. Diversification also makes for low stress. I didn't make the huge gains other people did with higher risk profiles. On the other hand, my losses aren't enough to make me lose sleep.

Given the huge levels of uncertainty, to the extent we aren't even sure what the rules of the game are going to be . . . I wouldn't recommend buying any specific equity. (As might be expected given I only hold index funds for equity investments.)

In 2022 I was advocating buying the dips in the US equity markets in another thread. I ended up with an average purchase price of 3,800 on the S&P. I am not looking for an entry point to the US markets at the moment at S&P = 5,000.

You do you. Me? I am just going to stand around and do nothing. I'd be plenty happy if S&P = 5,000 was the bottom. I might reconsider if the S&P fell far below that level.

The average bear market decline is ~22%. Looks like the market is set to open tomorrow pretty close to 22% off its peak. That is not the worst case, just the average. The worst bear market in the last century was down 89% from 1929 - 1933. It didn't recover until the 1950's.

Time is your friend. If you are in your 30's, just keep plugging away and averaging down with periodic purchases. Don't panic, you are getting to buy some nice investments at a big discount. All will be fine by the time you start thinking retirement. It is only us old folks who are about to try to live off our investments who might have good reason to be a bit worried.

Doing nothing while everyone else panics is underrated -=- DrStrange
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Agree on diversification. Just thinking this downturn may present a buying opportunity for a portion of funds sitting in a safer, albeit smaller return, harbor that may result in a bigger return over the next 10 plus years.

johnjohn said:
avgo tsla
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Thanks. Will check in on AVGO.

Tesla...ugh...seems way too volatile and uncertain right now for me.
 
Just remember that since 1990, there have been 17 occasions where the S&P 500 has dropped by 10% or more. Despite this volatility, the value of the US stock market has increased by over 1400% (as of March 31st, 2025).

Don't panic. Diversify. Be patient. This will pass.
 
Interesting - but like the saying says - "If your the First out of the Gate thats not called panic". You can always buy on the uptick, shorting is not for everyone - but if you can make money on the way down and up - why not, ( if you can make 2 years of income in 2 and half months, well... who would say no to that )

Just mentioning some options.

But like I say - Your milage may vary.

Good luck everyone...see you on the other side of this.
 
Tight_Lay_DOWN said:
Interesting - but like the saying says - "If your the First out of the Gate thats not called panic". You can always buy on the uptick, shorting is not for everyone - but if you can make money on the way down and up - why not, ( if you can make 2 years of income in 2 and half months, well... who would say no to that )

Just mentioning some options.

But like I say - Your milage may vary.

Good luck everyone...see you on the other side of this.
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Given this is a thread for retirement planning / investing, I would not encourage anyone to be opening speculative derivative positions or to be "shorting" the stock / commodity markets using their life savings.

If you want to brag / discuss speculation on daily or weekly moves or any other "YOLO" style strategies - the place for that is here: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/stonks-crypto-and-things.102848/

To be sure, someone who had the insight and nerve to open bearish positions in the last few weeks has made a relative fortune. Good for you! But that sort of speculation doesn't belong in your retirement accounts. You know - you only live once, and if you aren't prudent, you'll likely die broke.

Be careful out there -=- DrStrange
 
DrStrange said:
Given this is a thread for retirement planning / investing, I would not encourage anyone to be opening speculative derivative positions or to be "shorting" the stock / commodity markets using their life savings.

If you want to brag / discuss speculation on daily or weekly moves or any other "YOLO" style strategies - the place for that is here: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/stonks-crypto-and-things.102848/

To be sure, someone who had the insight and nerve to open bearish positions in the last few weeks has made a relative fortune. Good for you! But that sort of speculation doesn't belong in your retirement accounts. You know - you only live once, and if you aren't prudent, you'll likely die broke.

Be careful out there -=- DrStrange
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I always thought this thread was for wealthy retired boomers to troll Millennials and Gen Zs who had the ladder pulled up on them.
 
Millennials and Gen Zs who think they had the ladder pulled up on them, are the ones that lived at home until they were 30 and never got a job.

I think you'd have a hard time finding a boomer that didn't have some sort of job when they were 16 or younger.
 
Oh this is gonna be fun.

Wish that my job at 16 could’ve led to things like home ownership and paid for higher education :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:

Man I wish that the American people could come together and realize the infighting doesn’t help us. But then I look at my subjective experience and yes, at an alarming rate, watch older generations enjoy lighting their path to success on fire.

Ffs, I’m living it now in my area. Median age of 44 here, average home value almost $1 mill, low poverty rates. And we STILL have schools without drinkable water cause f*ck them kids, we drank out of hoses.

Old folks ain’t wrong though - look what happens when you give uneducated generations the best possible markets, safety nets, and not require formal education for any of it.

Did y’all even say thank you once?

(Now I don’t think this thread was for trolling or politics and I APPRECIATE this thread. And I’m not taking about everyone, there’s plenty of great folks in every age, race, bracket, etc.

But there are no ladders left. Almost every single childhood friend/high school classmate do not own their own home. MANY - including those with kids or married - live at home with parents. Despite being 2nd/3rd/4th generation who had no plans on doing so, many have an expectation to stay at home, work, contribute to household finances, and in exchange they’ll get the house at parents death/move/etc.

Im simply writing this as I don’t think a lot of people realize just HOW much has changed and what the experience is to live in a metropolis.

I for one recognize that a left instead of a right or a no instead of a yes in one simple part of my life, and I’d be right next to them.

Insert won’t somebody think of the children gif.)
 
I am one of those "old folks".

I got to get my graduate and undergraduate degrees for a total tuition of $750 ($125/semester) at a state university in Texas. It was open admission, just walk right up, paid the fee and get your class schedule. You COULD work a summer job at $2/hr minimum wage and have enough to pay tuition. I got all my education and left school with no debt. Mostly complements of the State of Texas who greatly subsidized my education.

Nowadays, my grands try applying to the same state school I went to, but the cost is orders of magnitude more expensive. (If they can get in at all.) Not practical to try paying $10,000+ per semester working for minimum wage since the annual wages are less than two semesters worth of tuition. An undergrad and graduate degree from a state school is going to run well over $100,000 today. If I weren't paying for the kids, they would surely have college debt to rival the mortgage on a home.

So yes - the old folks have benefited from a huge hand out / hand up for their education. I say my thanks by putting any of our kids through school. And still, I think I got the better end of the deal.

But . . . . even though the younger generations aren't getting the same shake as my generation did, they can still do quite a lot to help themselves out vis-a-vis retirement. Compounding interest is an amazing thing. Small amounts invested in early adulthood become substantial as you approach retirement age.

@BarrieJ3 is right on point about the difficulty of the path. A few bad decisions before you are 25 can lead to a lifetime of poor results. That is part of what this thread is about. Not only the exciting end game, but the gritty small start that eventually blossoms into something in the distant future.

It isn't hopeless. But there is no hope if you don't start -=- DrStrange
 
Younger Genx here. Working since age 6 (delivered papers). Worked through CS undergrad using loans that have been repaid. ~50k was the nut. Played the fortune 100 game to fund my mba. Been steady investing when I made just 30k/year. Same approach when I started my own company and ran others. As Dr has mentioned, "Compounding interest is an amazing thing". Start today! What you focus on will become reality. Shoot, now I realized I'm the old guy.
 
anybody want to talk about the wages that were paid back in the “olden days” compared to the cost of a house “back in the Middle Ages”

You guys act like everyone made $95,000 a year and houses were a couple hundred bucks. Fuck you all, you want to complain about how it is now in YOUR world, but if anyone talks about how it was (and it was the same) it’s “ok boomer”.

ITS NEVER BEEN EASY FOR YOUNG PEOPLE STARTING OUT.

I don’t have sympathy for someone looking for a “ladder”. I don’t have any advice that you will listen to because “it’s hard”. Boo fucking hoo, your hair barrettes are going to cost you $2 now instead of $1.89. Suck it up, get a second job if you are just sitting around playing games on your $2000 PlayStation and your $150 month internet feed.

If you are a member of this site then you have no room to bitch about “how hard it is”. You are in luxury land and nobody cares if your china chips are $.47 or $1.08. When you have to buy food instead of poker chips - or use your McDonald points because you have no money to eat - then your whiny shit may be worth listening to.
 
ekricket said:
anybody want to talk about the wages that were paid back in the “olden days” compared to the cost of a house “back in the Middle Ages”

You guys act like everyone made $95,000 a year and houses were a couple hundred bucks. Fuck you all, you want to complain about how it is now in YOUR world, but if anyone talks about how it was (and it was the same) it’s “ok boomer”.

ITS NEVER BEEN EASY FOR YOUNG PEOPLE STARTING OUT.

I don’t have sympathy for someone looking for a “ladder”. I don’t have any advice that you will listen to because “it’s hard”. Boo fucking hoo, your hair barrettes are going to cost you $2 now instead of $1.89. Suck it up, get a second job if you are just sitting around playing games on your $2000 PlayStation and your $150 month internet feed.

If you are a member of this site then you have no room to bitch about “how hard it is”. You are in luxury land and nobody cares if your china chips are $.47 or $1.08. When you have to buy food instead of poker chips - or use your McDonald points because you have no money to eat - then your whiny shit may be worth listening to.
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I remember when a dime bag cost a dime. (Not really, I have very few memories from 30 years of getting high).
 
Tonysquander said:
Maybe we should trade deprivation stories… If you’ve never had to pre-count out 97 pennies in order to afford an 89 cent hamburger, just leave now :rolleyes:
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Oh these are always fun! Folks got some craaaaazy ones out there.

I didn’t struggle, had it easy. Always had a roof, private school, etc. Still have plenty of annoying ones though.

The worst was my mom was late EVERYWHERE. We never got to school, appointments, etc. on time. I was always so annoyed that we were always extra late cause we had to get gas every fricken day. Was always grab what change you could and pray that gets you to the spot.

So no I didn’t have to worry about polio or the dust bowl getting me, just an annoyance.

Honorable mention would be moving every 6 months to a year, specially when we had to move literally across the street because there was a cheaper apartment.

Meanwhile tried explaining apartments to my daughter this weekend, my son said it’s like a hotel but it’s peoples houses - she now wants to live in an apartment because she thinks you get room service.
 
My path to "success"...
  • Started working regular at 12 (paper route) It built character, pedaling a bike in snow, ice and downpouring rain. That doesn't count smaller bouts of income grabbing, like going door to door shoveling snow, which I did from a much younger age. Paper routes are no longer available, and parents are too protective (perhaps they need to be?) to allow a single-digit-age kid to get out of their sight, so I admit this is a start that younger generations don't get - through no fault of their own.
  • I couldn't get a scholarship, because it cost $50 for the ACT, and my family didn't have that kind of money, and every academic scholarship wanted your test scores.
  • I tried to pay my way through community college working as a museum docent and also working for a restaurant. The restaurant is how I didn't starve. Perhaps I could have not starved by living at home, but at 18 I was gone.
  • I simply did not finish college. Instead I got a job throwing garbage in the back of a garbage truck. A massive fall from woring in a tie in a museum using my brain to manual labor, but it paid $5 an hour to start ($8 an hour after 9 months), which was "good" money. It was good, because I created a budget, and one segment of the budget was "investments". I rented a small house (so small it didn't have a driveway, and the basement was dirt) with a buddy and my life got rolling.
  • Investing paid off. eBay, Amazon, Pets.com. Sure, not everything was a home run, but that is why you diversify, read corporate reports, and follow the news. Investing is much like poker. You can play ABC (index funds) and do OK, or you can study the game and do better - but you have to accept the bad beats, and plan to lose some hands.
  • I can't compete with my friends who all went to college. They make much more than I do, still working as a civil servant (firefighter). But since age 18, I have lived almost debt-free. I drove a shitty car - Dodge Neon, without a working speedometer, and the automatic transmission did not indicate what gear you were in, it just always read "P". I drove that until I could buy a new car with cash, and every car since.
  • My house is small. 1 million? I could buy my house 5 times over in 2003 for $1 million. Yes the price has gone up since then, but nowhere close to a million. Again, don't compete with your friends. My house is the China clay of houses. It's good enough, but I cannot brag about it. My mortgage was less than most apartments in the area, and that allows me much more to stuff into retirement. When I finally paid it off (15 years early), I put that "mortgage payment" into the stock market.
This isn't a humble brag, or a "suck it up" message - it's an opportunity to think differently. Re-evaluate what you need against what you should do. If college is unaffordable, DONT GO. Understand that you may never get a million dollar home. Budget accordingly, and never play out of your bankroll. This is how we all played poker right? Started small stakes, and if you simply never got better, you stay at the small stakes and enjoy the game.

He who dies with the most toys doesn't win. The guy that enjoys what he has, no matter how little, wins.
 
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And that is how you play the short game…

But buying and selling is not for everyone, as I say, your mileage may vary.

EDIT, forgot to say thanks to all that DM me who are looking for the info that I was using and I will be using email in the future to communicate with you all, because we’re not out of the woods yet, now that all the auto trades are done, we have to sit by a couple days and see how things shape out, especially with China,
 
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I'm a gen-xer (1967) and I feel like I've had it pretty easy. My parents had good jobs (Ford(s) and my mom a librarian at local elementary. I didn't get drafted, I didn't go to Vietnam etc. I did cut grass and have a paper route and got my first W2 job at 16, been working ever since. I worked through college by choice, I was just happier that way. Graduated with no debt and already had a job at a CPA firm a year before graduation. My parents paid for 90% of my schooling and I've never really suffered at all financially if I'm honest. I got lucky with a job I liked and now I've been there 30 years and the company has always done well, even through the downturns of 2008 and 2020. I gues some luck with a little bit of skill has carried me through. Maybe people my age are the ones who really hit the sweet spot?
 

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