Variance is a cruel mistress (2 Viewers)

[Kentucky]

How would you play/think about this spot?

We're playing 2c/5c online, full ring, but a couple of empty seats - 7 handed.
UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. We have 17 hands, or a few orbits with this guy. He's VPIPed 71%, Open Raised 29% which suggests he likes to see a flop even if he has been catching cards over the small sample size. He raises for 3BB which is a standard size.

It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at . Hero?

BB is tending towards more competent stats - VP35/PR9 - but still only 23 hands of evidence.

 

[DrStrange]

Some people pay extra for the "cruel mistress" treatment.

Stacks are almost short. It is an awkward spot. Too deep for a jam. But a call gives Hero's speculative hand a modest 10 SPR. Three-betting from worst position and creating a low SPR means Hero's hand is mostly a bluff then.

I fold. I don't much care for the situation vis-a-vis stack depth. And there is always BB lurking. This hand is more trouble that its worth playing sub 100bb stacks.

Cluck, cluck <----- that's me

 

[Eriks]

I’ll go full Doug mode here and say that a case can be made for all three options.

80bbs deep and oop I certainly don’t hate just folding here. That’s probably my preferred action.

You can call and there’s a decent chance the bb with 29vpip yet low aggression factor will call along to sweeten the deal. How much does he have, and how much do you have?

You can 3bet to take it down or get heads-up. It’s kinda meh though this shallow with a hand that needs big implied odds. Utg stats suggests he’s not a folder so you’re gonna end up in some tricky spots post with like top pair no kicker.

 

[Frogzilla]

He’s opening too wide you should squeeze make it 14-15 bb

 

[Kentucky]

I'm going to press on quickly because (spoiler alert) this isn't the major decision point.

Truthfully, I'm not disciplined to throw such a pretty hand into the muck here and too chicken myself to raise against UTG. Even though I know I'll either hit an A and feel obliged to call off a couple of bets then get beat by A9o from UTG, or hit an 8 and feel obliged to call off a couple of bets with 2nd pair and lose to J6o from the BB...

I try and justify this leak by saying that I 3! a linear range against this pool because they call pretty wide and A8s isn't high enough so it falls into my limited call range in this configuration. I would be more likely to squeeze at some frequency against later position raises (and be successful on occaision). Stack sizes in this game are invariably awkward and at the start of this hand ranged from 30 BB to 260 BB. I tend not to think about stack sizes pre-flop unless they are less than 50, so interesting to hear y'all note the 80BB stacks already.

UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. and raises for 3BB which is a standard size.
It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at .

We flick in the call. BB (Villain 2 - starting stack 83BB (we cover)) completes the happy trio heading to the flop. And, Oh Boy, is it a devilish flop...


Pot is 9 BB.

We check in flow hoping to get some time to clear our heads.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB.
Villain 1(UTG) calls.

Hero?

 

[Josh Kifer]

Some people pay extra for the "cruel mistress" treatment.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Uh. Right here I'm flat calling, not getting spicy, and expect someone to flip over 6 3 off at the end because "they had a feeling".

Tread carefully.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Call

 

[upNdown]

I don’t know what the solvers would say or how all the GTO wizards play. But my simple thoughts are:
1) it’s unlikely anybody has a 6
2) it’s possible either villain already has a boat
3) we will likely win if there’s an A on turn or river
4) nut flush no good
So out of position 3-way, I’m happy to pay one blind into 11, to close the action and hope for that turn ace. Pot odds aren’t quite there I guess, but what the hell, it’s a game.

 

[Mojo1312]

I'm going to press on quickly because (spoiler alert) this isn't the major decision point.

Truthfully, I'm not disciplined to throw such a pretty hand into the muck here and too chicken myself to raise against UTG. Even though I know I'll either hit an A and feel obliged to call off a couple of bets then get beat by A9o from UTG, or hit an 8 and feel obliged to call off a couple of bets with 2nd pair and lose to J6o from the BB...

I try and justify this leak by saying that I 3! a linear range against this pool because they call pretty wide and A8s isn't high enough so it falls into my limited call range in this configuration. I would be more likely to squeeze at some frequency against later position raises (and be successful on occaision). Stack sizes in this game are invariably awkward and at the start of this hand ranged from 30 BB to 260 BB. I tend not to think about stack sizes pre-flop unless they are less than 50, so interesting to hear y'all note the 80BB stacks already.

UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. and raises for 3BB which is a standard size.
It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at .

We flick in the call. BB (Villain 2 - starting stack 83BB (we cover)) completes the happy trio heading to the flop. And, Oh Boy, is it a devilish flop...


Pot is 9 BB.

We check in flow hoping to get some time to clear our heads.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB.
Villain 1(UTG) calls.

Hero?

Hero's limp oop priced in BB. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

The question becomes why bet 1BB into a 9BB pot? What is hero's plan moving forward? Does he even have one? Or is he just hoping to float to the river on the cheap,

 

[Kentucky]

Hero's limp oop priced in BB. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

The question becomes why bet 1BB into a 9BB pot? What is hero's plan moving forward? Does he even have one? Or is he just hoping to float to the river on the cheap,

You are right. Hero’s plan was to see a flop, just not this one.

Having taken one punch to the face hero’s new plan is to not take another.

 

[Taghkanic]

The 1BB bet into a 9BB pot is hard to read. Possibilities:

1. Has the 6 and doesn’t want to lose value… though I’d check the quads or bet bigger to make it look like a bluff;
2. Has a pocket pair, but doesn’t want to lose value and also wants to see where he is at;
3. Has Ax and is hoping it will be good at showdown but doesn’t want to spend a lot to get there;
4. Has no idea what else to do.

In a sense it’s a clever bet, in that it sows confusion and may get better hands to fold in paranoia. But it may just be meaningless on a 666 board.

If he had a small pocket pair he ought to be concerned that lots of overcards will make a better boat… But again who knows with this flop.

I might be tempted to do something equally cute and click it back (i.e. raise it to 2BB). See how they react and try to get a better feel for the situation. Maybe also fold out some better aces which may suspect you can’t possibly be doing that without a big FH or the quads.

If you get 3bet, get out; if flatted, shut it down the rest of the hand (unless maybe an A comes but even then it’s a dangerous spot).

Given the title I expect it runs out 666AA and you lose to 6x, right?

 

[upNdown]

In a sense it’s a clever bet in that it sows confusion

I’ve heard pros and coaches discuss this kind of min bet. The consensus seems to be it’s best just treat it like a check and proceed as you would if it had been checked.

 

[Taghkanic]

I’ve heard pros and coaches discuss this kind of min bet. The consensus seems to be it’s best just treat it like a check and proceed as you would if it had been checked.

I’ve heard that too, but I think the extreme board texture makes this a little bit of an exceptional situation.

If the flop were monotone, or staightening, or something like A-rag-rag rainbow, I would interpret a 1BB bet differently in each situation.

Plus the other villain’s flat call makes it even more peculiar. Do we interpret that as two checks? Or something else?

 

[upNdown]

Plus the other villain’s flat call makes it even more peculiar. Do we interpret that as two checks? Or something else?

Well they can’t both have sixes . . .

 

[Mojo1312]

The 1BB bet into a 9BB pot is hard to read. Possibilities:

 

[Mojo1312]

Please bite on my line.

 

[Taghkanic]

Well they can’t both have sixes . . .

First guy could have anything. Caller could too, but I’d think he’d be somewhat more likely to have the 6 than the opener.

 

[Kentucky]

Like most of you, my thoughts were - this is a super polarizing flop. We are either way ahead, or way behind. Most likely way behind. UTG's range is rich in pocket over pairs which we are behind, and Ax we are either behind or chopping with. SB can have 22 - 99 probably that we are currently behind, or any two cards, really...
All that being said, We call. We're getting 11:1. How bad can it be?
An A can come, or a 6 and we get to get it all in, chop with another A, and not get our money back because of the rake.

~
UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. and raises for 3BB which is a standard size.
It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at

We flick in the call. BB (Villain 2 - starting stack 83BB (we cover)) completes the happy trio heading to the flop. And, Oh Boy, is it a devilish flop...


Pot is 9 BB.

We check in flow hoping to get some time to clear our heads.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB.
Villain 1(UTG) calls.

Hero Calls.

Pot is 12 BB. Turn is
-

Hero Checks again.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB. Again.
Villain 1(UTG) raises to 11 BB.

Hero?

 

[Coyote]

Fold.
Those pathetic little creeps with min raises usually have boats; they 're just shy.
Edit: or they 're just colluding.

 

[apchipper]

Fold.

I don't see how you can call a pot-sized bet on the turn when two other people have interest and the only card that you're happy with on the river is an A, of which there are 1-3 left.

 

[upNdown]

Fold > Jam > call

But fold is the only serious option.

 

[Mojo1312]

I have no idea how .02/.05 poker plays. What I do know is Hero has very little history with either villain. A 1BB bet from a semi competent player on both the flop and the turn leads me to believe he is fishing for action. The aggressive re-pop by UTG is hard to read, but I would suspect he has some part of the board. Could even be a draw. Again hard to tell.

Sometimes it is good to fold when you are ahead. To me, this is one of those times. Any pocket pair has you beat, which means you could be drawing to an Ace only. Worse, we don't know if one of these villains has a six. Based on what we know of the villains and the way the hand played pre-flop, I would sooner believe the BB is the snake in the weeds and he is about to eat somebody's stack.

Tickling the pot for a BB doesn't make sense to me. Whenever I am out of position and can't make sense of a hand -- I fold.

 

[upNdown]

Whenever I am out of position and can't make sense of a hand -- I fold.

Yes! Folding out of position against multiple opponents who are betting should be the easiest move in poker.

 

[Kentucky]

Looks to be a pretty unanimous fold from the PCF hive mind. Good. Hero was in no mood to lose a stack here, but I did want to make sure I'd played it correctly. I couldn't possibly see how I was ahead of both Vs and I was bruised from finding many better spots to lose a stack all session.

Let's close out the action

~
UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. and raises for 3BB which is a standard size.
It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at

We flick in the call. BB (Villain 2 - starting stack 83BB (we cover)) completes the happy trio heading to the flop. And, Oh Boy, is it a devilish flop...


Pot is 9 BB.

We check in flow hoping to get some time to clear our heads.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB.
Villain 1(UTG) calls.

Hero Calls.

Pot is 12 BB. Turn is
-

Hero Checks again.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB. Again.
Villain 1(UTG) raises to 11 BB.
Hero folds.
BB Calls!

Pot is 34BB. River is
-

BB donks for a third time - for 16BB
UTG snap calls.

I'll give you till morning to guess what they are going to show up with.

 

[Mojo1312]

We can eliminate both player from having the case six.

 

[LotsOfChips]

guess what they are going to show up with...

72o and QcJc

 

[warma]

is out, sadly. Would have loved to see that bettor paid off.

 

[Kentucky]

Good Morning!
OK - Let's wrap this up...

UTG (aka Villain 1) has the 80BB effective stack. and raises for 3BB which is a standard size.
It folds around to Hero in the SB and we look down at

We flick in the call. BB (Villain 2 - starting stack 83BB (we cover)) completes the happy trio heading to the flop. And, Oh Boy, is it a devilish flop...


Pot is 9 BB.

We check in flow hoping to get some time to clear our heads.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB.
Villain 1(UTG) calls.

Hero Calls.

Pot is 12 BB. Turn is
-

Hero Checks again.
Villain 2 (BB) donks out for 1BB. Again.
Villain 1(UTG) raises to 11 BB.
Hero folds.
BB Calls!

Pot is 34BB. River is
-

BB donks for a third time - for 16BB
UTG snap calls.

BB shows down for the stone cold 3 barrel donk bluff.
UTG shows down for the Jack high flush which probably doesn't beat all bluffs.

4) nut flush no good

An entirely reasonable assumption... and yet... somehow we lost the minimum.

Thanks all for playing along and helping restore my sanity.

 

[upNdown]

I’m going to guess this is a danger inherent to the lowest stakes? When you’re playing five dollar buyins, it’s probably easy to go buck wild (as Bart Hanson would say) and do stupid crap. But I think you played this one right, except maybe you should have saved a blind and folded the flop. How are you supposed to know you’re playing with dumb and dumber?