Jam here and you risk $1,500 for a single orbit worth of blinds/anties
In nit logic, every time you shove your piddling stack, you're "risk[ing] $1,500," and all you stand to win is "a single orbit worth of blinds/antes." This is why nits so rarely steal blinds and small pots; they don't see the value in it. It's either double up or lose everything.
The fact of the matter is that you paid $1,500 to enter the tournament already. That money is gone. All you have now is that piddling stack, not $1,500, and all it represents is some fraction of a chance to fold your way into a minimum cash—while a field of other people try to do the same thing.
Everyone else who doesn't see the value in stealing blinds has the same chance as you do. They're all sitting around waiting for a big pair or AK to make a move, even if they're up against
one opponent who's going to fold 95% of the time. When they catch the big hand, they win 1.5 BB plus antes that 95% of the time, same as shoving with 66 or 38o. And that rare occasion when it's big hand versus big hand, you're 4:1 to double up (or a 4:1 dog), or maybe a coin flip, but now we're just talking about letting it come down to the luck of the draw.
There's something to be said for playing for survival. And if OP were down to three or four places out of the money, I think I'd give more consideration to trying to fold his way to a min cash. But 35 places out of the money, when the blinds and antes are like 30% of your stack, and you have a 95% chance to steal them, it's not even a decision. Steal away until you think your opponents might get suspicious and start calling call you wider.
Just because OP got unlucky and ran into a very unlikely big pair here doesn't mean a shove was wrong. Shoving was the right move, and it's not even close.
