$1/2 Hold'em at the Mirage (2 Viewers)

[Jeff]

OOP against three players? Not that nit.

FYI, BB is Big Blind not Bill B
Just for clarity.

 

[detroitdad]

FYI, BB is Big Blind not Bill B

Wouldn't be me. I'd be bitching about only getting two cards.

 

[WedgeRock]

Wouldn't be me. I'd be bitching about only getting two cards.

Truth.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Whether MP+1 is drawing or not, you have to beat both MP+1 and BB to win MP+1's money -- they are both playing $200 stacks.

So if the plan is to go after button to make up for a potential $200 loss to BB/MP+1, is the best way to get all the button's money by over-shoving to a BB shove with two left to act? Should you try to extract it over the next two streets? This also gives you the option to abort if it feels like he hits his draw.

I though about a smaller than all-in bet to entice the Button in, but since I figure he is drawing he is playing for the whole pot and not just the side pot I think I could win. So making a minraise or so would give him good odds to call.

I'd prefer to have him call getting the wrong price to do so.

 

[WedgeRock]

If the purpose is to get all of his chips in, you should be giving him the right price to call, no? If you give him a bad price, he might fold, leaving you up against a hand (maybe 2) that you believe beat you.

 

[Rhodeman77]

If the purpose is to get all of his chips in, you should be giving him the right price to call, no? If you give him a bad price, he might fold, leaving you up against a hand (maybe 2) that you believe beat you.

That is part of the dilemma I had. Do I want to give him the right odds to draw or chance losing him with a shove and cost myself $100 to do so?

 

[WedgeRock]

If you want his money in the middle, you give him the right odds and gambool it up. If you don't want him drawing, then fold, because you are already beat by the BB nit.

 

[DrStrange]

I have doubts about a strategy that starts with, "first, I'll toss in $100 where I am plausibly a 2-98 dog while getting 7-1 then I'll put my remaining $500 at risk by giving the draw the right price to draw".

Let's be clear, hero needs to think that Button can stack off for $600 with KQ or worse for it to be worth taking a risk by continuing. OR hero needs to think there is a solid chance that top pair / top kicker is the best of the four hands right now.

is a 63/37 favorite over or any other two Broadway cards that make a spade draw. If Hero jams all in and gets called by , he earns +$130 { actually JTs is a percent or two better than AQs, so Hero is worse off than +$130 EV } . But Hero loses something like $90 on the $105 he has to put in the main pot before we get to the side pot.

Of course there is some chance that Hero is doing much better than 2-98 in the main pot. But it is also true that sometimes button holds the set. It is also true that many times Hero will jam and get folds out of the button and be drawing close to dead for the main pot.

Hero's +EV drops if he gives button a better price. That seems like a dangerous plan given that Hero only has a narrow spread between the equity in the side pot vs the expect loss in the main pot.

Yes there are times Hero will prove to be a genius here - maybe catching everyone on the same flush draw, something like this: ATs vs QJs vs 82s But I think Hero has a much better chance to be the goat here.

And I don't mean goat = greatest of all time -=- DrStrange

 

[Rhodeman77]

Great analysis @DrStrange, I appreciate your thought process a lot on intersteing hands like this.

So on to the results!

Hero thinks the Button will play for stacks enough of the time with a bare flush draw to embrace the variance.

Hero jams, Beer guy goes into the tank for 5 minutes (over a $100 call to the point that Drunk Asian Guy calls clock on him.

Floor comes over and gives him 30 seconds, he ends up folding right before time expired.

The Button now goes into the tank as well, but not for long and makes the call.

Turn is giving some outs if I am against a set.

River is the

The Button jumps and yells FLUSH!!! And tables

The BB shows for a beat set.

I muck and mumble under my breathe about set over set and the table now all think I had a set of Kings.

The good news is that Mr Know it all felt bullet proof after that and by the time the game broke at 7am he was all but busted.

Oh, and Beer Guy said he fold because he thought he was against a bigger flush draw.

 

[CraigT78]

Great analysis @DrStrange, I appreciate your thought process a lot on intersteing hands like this.

So on to the results!

Hero thinks the Button will play for stacks enough of the time with a bare flush draw to embrace the variance.

Hero jams, Beer guy goes into the tank for 5 minutes (over a $100 call to the point that Drunk Asian Guy calls clock on him.

Floor comes over and gives him 30 seconds, he ends up folding right before time expired.

The Button now goes into the tank as well, but not for long and makes the call.

Turn is giving some outs if I am against a set.

River is the

The Button jumps and yells FLUSH!!! And tables

The BB shows for a beat set.

I muck and mumble under my breathe about set over set and the table now all think I had a set of Kings.

The good news is that Mr Know it all felt bullet proof after that and by the time the game broke at 7am he was all but busted.

Oh, and Beer Guy said he fold because he thought he was against a bigger flush draw.

Yuck.

 

[WedgeRock]

@detroitdad is not a Vegas local, FYI.

So as I was saying, clearly finding a fold is the prudent thing to do. Embracing the variance is a road to ruin...

 

[CHP TD]

Yep 10 3 suited makes sense.

Facepalm...

 

[ohio3302016]

I'm not saying, I'm just saying....

 

[onerand]

Played well. You have an SPR of 2 on the flop with tptk against most players and you got the button to put in 700 with a flush draw.