$1/3 NL: KK UTG 4-handed (2 Viewers)

[jbutler]

I reckon there are more hands we beat that call than hands we lose to.

I think people forget that this is the precise question we should be asking when betting in position on the river. One of the several solid things Bart Hanson used to harp on in his training (granted, his training isn't perfect, but he certainly hammers the fundamentals and that's what most of his listeners/followers need) is that when we're checked to on the river we should ask how often we win if we're called on the river. If it's greater than 50% then we should be betting.

I think SB's tiny stack makes this a bet. The discussion gets (a lot) more interesting if he has $300 behind, but we obviously have no fear of getting check raised and also no fear that he might sniff out a super thin value bet (i.e., if we were to bet $100 into his $300 behind on the river looking to get called by one pair).

Also, the high level analysis that: (1) he's a loose passive fish; and (2) we have KINGS!

 

[justsomedude]

2o on the river?

Came this far and he's short stacked... Time to jam. If you lose to a screwball two pair or trip deuces, there's nothing you can do. As you said, he's a loose passive fish.

 

[DrStrange]

I would bet it as well.

 

[upNdown]

Either I have a lot to learn, or you guys are nuts. (I'm guessing maybe both are true)
Based on the large bets he's snap-called, I think there's a decent chance that he made a set (or even the straight) on the flop. If he did, you're just giving him another $65. If he's got 2 pair or aces, he's not folding to a $65 bet.
If you KNOW you've got him beat, sure, take his last $65. But you don't know that. So I can't see any reason to bet here.

 

[jbutler]

Either I have a lot to learn, or you guys are nuts. (I'm guessing maybe both are true)
Based on the large bets he's snap-called, I think there's a decent chance that he made a set (or even the straight) on the flop. If he did, you're just giving him another $65. If he's got 2 pair or aces, he's not folding to a $65 bet.
If you KNOW you've got him beat, sure, take his last $65. But you don't know that. So I can't see any reason to bet here.

There's literally 0% chance he had the straight on the flop. There is probably a 5% chance he had a set on the flop, but as soon as he flats my flop raise he is capped at two pair literally 95% of the time imo. I would say it's probably 10% that he has aces. He'd have 3-bet pre a large percentage of the time, would have folded the turn a significant percentage of the time, and would have thought longer before calling a significant percentage of the time.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Push and get beat by 2 pair.

 

[Rhodeman77]

It's an auto bet to me.

How he doesn't just bet it blind before the river comes out I don't know. Even the worst players that have 2 pair plus are betting their last $65 here. They know they are getting called by every hand that would bet their hand on every street. Why give a 1 pair hand a chance to check behind and lose that added value?

The only reason he would check is if he has a flush draw that doesn't have a pair and is in check fold mode.

 

[bergs]

It's an auto bet to me.

How he doesn't just bet it blind before the river comes out I don't know. Even the worst players that have 2 pair plus are betting their last $65 here. They know they are getting called by every hand that would bet their hand on every street. Why give a 1 pair hand a chance to check behind and lose that added value?

The only reason he would check is if he has a flush draw that doesn't have a pair and is in check fold mode.

I think he has a flush draw with a shitty pair and he just wants to get to showdown. I'd sit for 30 seconds and stuff the last $65 in to give him hope and then snatch it away when I table kings after he calls.

 

[Dr. Neau]

I'd use speech play

 

[Ben]

Bet $62. (y) :thumbsup:

 

[Jimulacrum]

Bet $64, fold to shove.

 

[jbutler]

Okay, results:

I bet the $65 and he tanked for like a minute and rambled about how could he fold, so much money in the pot, but he knows he's beat, but how could he fold, but he doesn't want to give me anymore money, but how could he win. He eventually said, "I really hope you have ace king of diamonds," and put his $65 in the middle and I tabled my hand. He showed 8d9d.

The sick part is that in most situations against most people he'd be right now to raise the flop because when most people 3-bet they're not going to fold to a 4-bet even by third player, but I would have snap folded this hand and he would have taken it down instead of stacking off.

 

[thorwilliam]

Okay, results:

I bet the $65 and he tanked for like a minute and rambled about how could he fold, so much money in the pot, but he knows he's beat, but how could he fold, but he doesn't want to give me anymore money, but how could he win. He eventually said, "I really hope you have ace king of diamonds," and put his $65 in the middle and I tabled my hand. He showed 8d9d.

The sick part is that in most situations against most people he'd be right now to raise the flop because when most people 3-bet they're not going to fold to a 4-bet even by third player, but I would have snap folded this hand and he would have taken it down instead of stacking off.

WP, got to get in those value bets otr.

 

[jbutler]

WP, got to get in those value bets otr.

After we got into the discussion I sort of wish I had posted a fictional version of the hand where SB had me covered to see what we should do on that river. Sickeningly, I think it's still a bet unless we're against a guy willing to check raise jam a bluff.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Wow did SB play his hand passively!!! He should have 4 bet shoved the flop for sure. He is 50/50 on the flop, but all of the fold equality he has makes it an easy push.

Great run out for KK.

 

[Dr. Neau]

I think people forget that this is the precise question we should be asking when betting in position on the river. One of the several solid things Bart Hanson used to harp on in his training (granted, his training isn't perfect, but he certainly hammers the fundamentals and that's what most of his listeners/followers need) is that when we're checked to on the river we should ask how often we win if we're called on the river. If it's greater than 50% then we should be betting.

Conversely, how often to you win if you check it down?

 

[jbutler]

Wow did SB play his hand passively!!! He should have 4 bet shoved the flop for sure. He is 50/50 on the flop, but all of the fold equality he has makes it an easy push.

Great run out for KK.

Yeah unbelievably lucky for me all around. And super, super lucky for me that BB saw the way the hand played out and saw what I tabled because he's a thinking player and will have formed a strong impression of my play from this hand. But I would so, so rarely be in a spot to play a big pair this aggressively for this much versus more than one player that I think he'll outlevel himself trying to put me on hands for a while.

Gotta build an image in the new game.

 

[onerand]

Good turn bet. Pot is bloated and the 9 only completed 85. If you are already behind, so be it.

 

[jbutler]

Good turn bet. Pot is bloated and the 9 only completed 85. If you are already behind, so be it.

Agreed.