$2/$5 No Limit A7 sOOted (3 Viewers)

[JustinInMN]

Just for the sake of argument if I were to build a case to raise it would be this.

As the pf raiser, we have a range advantage over button on this flop. This hits just about everything hero would normally raise pre. The only real misses are the non diamond suited aces with middle kickers.

1) We can have straights, he can't. (Is he really calling 5x with K9, 98? Is he really flatting AK?)

2) We can have sets, button really can't have QQ, is he flatting with JJ, TT?

3) We know we have the nut flush draw, so nobody else has it.

4) We probably all agree button can have AQ, KQ, and maybe TT. (Would button 3 bet TT pre?) We can put big pressure on the one pair Q hands.

5) Button can't really have overpair, could button have two pair? Is he calling 5x pre with QJ, QT, JT?

So IF (and I grant it's a big if) we can eliminate everything better than a single queen from button's possible holdings a raise could enable us to win the pot without needing to improve.

The button is described as tight, is he tight enough to fold QJ, Qt, Jt pre? Maybe we don't have enough book on the button to know.

I think calling is the safer plan and the price is good. But I think there is a range advantage to be leveraged if one wanted to consider a raise.

 

[Frogzilla]

Tempting to 3-bet to $250-300 range.

 

[Trihonda]

Tempting to 3-bet to $250-300 range.

Interesting... but if we get shoved on by the BB, are we getting the right price to call off stacks?

 

[Moxie Mike]

Just for the sake of argument if I were to build a case to raise it would be this.

As the pf raiser, we have a range advantage over button on this flop. This hits just about everything hero would normally raise pre. The only real misses are the non diamond suited aces with middle kickers.

1) We can have straights, he can't. (Is he really calling 5x with K9, 98? Is he really flatting AK?)

2) We can have sets, button really can't have QQ, is he flatting with JJ, TT?

Why can't he have a straight? We don't know anything about the button. But his flat pre and min raise on the flop suggest he's not a LAG player. Flatting from the button is usually some type of speculative hand, which QJ, JT, K9 and 98 all fit the description of. Maybe he flats pre thinking he wants one of the blinds and the EP limper to call as well.

I've also seen people flat pre with AK more times than I can count. Passive players often don't like to commit a lot of chips preflop with anything but the strongest of holdings. If he tabled JJ, QQ or even KK it wouldn't come as a complete shock.

3) We know we have the nut flush draw, so nobody else has it.

4) We probably all agree button can have AQ, KQ, and maybe TT. (Would button 3 bet TT pre?) We can put big pressure on the one pair Q hands.

5) Button can't really have overpair, could button have two pair? Is he calling 5x pre with QJ, QT, JT?

So IF (and I grant it's a big if) we can eliminate everything better than a single queen from button's possible holdings a raise could enable us to win the pot without needing to improve.

The button is described as tight, is he tight enough to fold QJ, Qt, Jt pre? Maybe we don't have enough book on the button to know.

I think calling is the safer plan and the price is good. But I think there is a range advantage to be leveraged if one wanted to consider a raise.

Let's ask ourselves what a min-raise on this type of flop usually means. In my experience, the button is probably going to turn out to be a tight-passive player. A min-raise from a player like this generally means he has flopped a strong but vulnerable hand. I think he flat calls the flop bet with KQ or any other one-pair hands. So the worst hand I have him on is QT, but QJ or a straight is more likely. I would expect a player like this to flat call with a bare flush or straight draw.

The min-raise usually means he doesn't want to commit a lot of chips to the pot yet. The min-raise with two opponents is testing the waters to see if someone comes over the top. If no one re-raises, he'll put in a much larger bet after a safe turn card.

AK is also a small possibility given the passivity of this player although I don't think that what he's holding. He knows he needs to raise with the nuts, but doesn't want to blow his opponents of their hands. So the min raise extracts extra value from UTG with also almost guaranteeing a call from the hero.

I don't think any of this justifies a re-raise though. The button is likely not folding (nor is UTG), and if the turn bricks hero's predicament gets worse.

 

[JustinInMN]

Tempting to 3-bet to $250-300 range.

If you make the raise here I think it is to target the single queen hands. It would have to be a bigger sizing

can't he have a straight? We don't know anything about the button. But his flat pre and min raise on the flop suggest he's not a LAG player. Flatting from the button is usually some type of speculative hand, which QJ, JT, K9 and 98 all fit the description of. Maybe he flats pre thinking he wants one of the blinds and the EP limper to call as well.

Again, I think I still prefer the call, but this is the case that I think makes a raise worth considering. Yes if button is so careful with AK to flat that preflop, then yes, my range advantage assumption is wrong.

Also is the min-raise on the flop a sizing tell of strength? (Which I think is @DrStrange 's assumption) Then yes, I would assume there is probably more two pair hands in there if button is cold calling 5x widely.

If it's a tell of uncertainty or weakness, then maybe the 3 bet to target the one one pair queen hands is the better line.

But again, I was just putting that out for the sake of argument that depending on how much hero knows about the button, hero could have a significant range advantage here that may be worth leveraging.

I think I prefer the call line with uncertainty about the button as you said, @Moxie Mike, but if I see a villian frequently back down from big raises, this might be a spot to try it.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I think I prefer the call line with uncertainty about the button as you said, @Moxie Mike, but if I see a villian frequently back down from big raises, this might be a spot to try it.

I'm not trying to start an argument - just pointing out that the less you know about a player when stacks are this deep, the more assumptions you have to make. I think you need some pretty strong indicators that a 3-bet on this flop will be effective in order to justify it.

It wouldn't shock me if the story ends with a blank hitting the turn and button fires out a $400 bet after being checked to.

 

[Payback]

Just for the sake of argument if I were to build a case to raise it would be this.

As the pf raiser, we have a range advantage over button on this flop. This hits just about everything hero would normally raise pre. The only real misses are the non diamond suited aces with middle kickers.

1) We can have straights, he can't. (Is he really calling 5x with K9, 98? Is he really flatting AK?)

2) We can have sets, button really can't have QQ, is he flatting with JJ, TT?

3) We know we have the nut flush draw, so nobody else has it.

4) We probably all agree button can have AQ, KQ, and maybe TT. (Would button 3 bet TT pre?) We can put big pressure on the one pair Q hands.

5) Button can't really have overpair, could button have two pair? Is he calling 5x pre with QJ, QT, JT?

So IF (and I grant it's a big if) we can eliminate everything better than a single queen from button's possible holdings a raise could enable us to win the pot without needing to improve.

The button is described as tight, is he tight enough to fold QJ, Qt, Jt pre? Maybe we don't have enough book on the button to know.

I think calling is the safer plan and the price is good. But I think there is a range advantage to be leveraged if one wanted to consider a raise.

This is ultimately why I started this discussion. Hero should have a huge range advantage as AK is always in Hero's range and is less likely to be in the villains. Plus hero can always have all the sets and two pair combos, and any pair plus straight draw. Hero does block AKdd, but not KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, JT, 98 of diamond hands. With 13 outs of the nuts, plus some pair outs being good if all of the money goes in Hero is ahead of those hands. Even flopped straights minus Broadway Hero has good equity. That just leaves sets to worry about as I believe the button has all of them in his range.

Tempting to 3-bet to $250-300 range.

I think sizing on this needs to be bigger, especially after the UTG flats. Pot will be $412 after Hero calls so a raise to $500 is not unreasonable. In game, $450 came to mind.

Interesting... but if we get shoved on by the BB, are we getting the right price to call off stacks?

I feel like his whole range flats except for AK after a 3 bet and at that point we can figure it out based upon the raise size above.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm not trying to start an argument - just pointing out that the less you know about a player when stacks are this deep, the assumptions you have to make.

Understood. I literally am trying to start an argument by saying "for the sake of argument" . Even though I don't favor the course for which I am arguing .

 

[v1pe]

I have a strong suspicion that BTN has a made hand that he perceives as needing protection. Could be any of the 2pairs, JJ, TT, even AK. Could be T9dd or 89s. KQs is a possibility. If BTN is passive enough to flat AK preflop, he might be passive enough to do the same with QQ. I think his raise sizing gives away that he is not

Pretty tough to range UTG with the limp/call, but his most likely holdings IMO are marginal made hands (KQ, 99, 88) or drawing hands like some diamond suited connectors although there aren't very many of those left when we block the A and the 7. Maybe even A9s or A8s non diamond or J9s, T9s type pair+ straight draw hands. Given Hero read that UTG player is pretty much a passive face-up player I'm weghting him heavily towards draws. UTG sounds like this is the type of player that would donk out if he drilled the flop with a TPTK (AQ), TPGK (KQ), or set (QQ, JJ, TT). Even more so after the cold-call of the small 3bet.

If we were heads up in position I could advocate for a raise, but it seems to me like we are giving BTN an opportunity to push us off our equity if we go ahead and 3bet in this spot. I don't think we can call a 4bet, especially if UTG goes ahead and cold calls again.

 

[Payback]

Preflop: UTG limps and it folds around to Hero in MP with who makes it $25 to go, folds to Button who calls, all fold to UTG who calls.

Flop ($82):

UTG checks, action on Hero who bets $55, Button thinks for a minute and raises to $110, UTG calls pretty quick, action back to Hero who calls.

Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero

 

[DrStrange]

Pray for a cheap or free card. Folding to a serious sized bet.

 

[JustinInMN]

Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero

Vomit.

Check. Consider calling if the size is right.

Side note: what the heck does utg have? He has to have a straight right, but he is still checking? This is weird.

 

[JustinInMN]

If you feel like some 5D chess, you could check raise all in and represent AK if you think both villian's could fold single kings. And I am certain at least one villian has a solo king here.

Maybe that's ambitious.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Maybe that's ambitious.

 

[v1pe]

One of the two worst cards in the deck. Check and hope for a free card. If BTN bets and UTG calls and the price is right you could call based on pot odds alone.

 

[Frogzilla]

Good card for us, I bet it. $250

 

[FDLmold]

11 clean outs in 46 cards. Checking then calling up to a pot-bet that UTG also calls is about the right immediate odds. I'm not sure betting out here is superior to that.

 

[JustinInMN]

de note: what the heck does utg have? He has to have a straight right, but he is still checking? This is weird.

I go it, utg somehow has 99, cold called the flop anyway, and "improved" on the turn but knows he has to check it anyway, but he's calling with the full house draw. Btn has KQ and is going to bet, or he has AQ (or maybe Queens up if he's loose pre) and is going to check.

For the sake of completing the horror story, button has QT, catches the on river. Hero comes in 3rd and button rakes a huge pot.

I could be wrong.

 

[Bradcorn]

Thought is to check and in game I’m sure I would. Is it worth throwing a weird blocking bet out for $100? I fear a check leads a $300 bet and fold fold. Where maybe $100 bet leads to two calls and slows down the raiser.

Not something I think I would do instinctively but maybe it gets us a “cheap” river and builds odds

 

[Payback]

Preflop: UTG limps and it folds around to Hero in MP with who makes it $25 to go, folds to Button who calls, all fold to UTG who calls.

Flop ($82):

UTG checks, action on Hero who bets $55, Button thinks for a minute and raises to $110, UTG calls pretty quick, action back to Hero who calls.

Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks

River ($412):
UTG checks, Hero

 

[Rhodeman77]

Check fold. If they had 2 pair or top pair hands on the flop and the 9 on the turn scared them the check through should alleviate that fear some. Now they have a full house or at least trips. I don’t see both of them folding.

You aren’t heavily invested into this pot. You missed, no point risking $350+ on a bluff trying to get 2 people to fold.

 

[v1pe]

Check fold. If they had 2 pair or top pair hands on the flop and the 9 on the turn scared them the check through should alleviate that fear some. Now they have a full house or at least trips. I don’t see both of them folding.

You aren’t heavily invested into this pot. You missed, no point risking $350+ on a bluff trying to get 2 people to fold.

Very shitty run-out. Give up at this point I agree.

 

[JustinInMN]

River ($412):
UTG checks, Hero

I think hero gives up here. The button has queens or a full house all day, and I still think utg has a king somehow and played weird. After the turn checked through I think the calling standards will drop and there are too many bluff catching hands that make sense here. I think any bet here is probably lost.

If hero bluffs here, he is representing a full house with a holding he didn't three bet on the flop, I don't think that's going to pass the smell test. Furthermore, the only things hero can realistically hope button folds is AQ and maybe JT if button was that loose pre flop. Everything else button can have is a straight or full house. And I still think it's weird UTG cold called the big raise on the flop and hasn't shown any aggression when the straight got there, but I still feel like he has a K and won't fold after a checked turn.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Agreed with above, bail.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I can see the river checking through and end up losing to Buttons counterfeited 2 pair J10 that Hero could have gotten him to fold by sneezing at the pot while UTG has something like 56dd and was drawing all but dead on the flop lol!

 

[JustinInMN]

I can see the river checking through and end up losing to Buttons counterfeited 2 pair J10 that Hero could have gotten him to fold by sneezing at the pot while UTG has something like 56dd and was drawing all but dead on the flop lol!

Hmm hadn't considered utg being on small diamonds. That makes more sense than my block that he has a king.

Still button raised the flop. seems he would have to have exact AQ or JT to get away with a bluff. If we think button could fold a king then maybe that changes the equation to bluff. Bet 200 plan to fold?

Still the problem that button could have full houses if he can have JT.

I still favor the give up, but is is a more credible combination of holdings that could make a bluff possible.

 

[v1pe]

I can see the river checking through and end up losing to Buttons counterfeited 2 pair J10 that Hero could have gotten him to fold by sneezing at the pot while UTG has something like 56dd and was drawing all but dead on the flop lol!

Yeah I can totally see that as well, but that's the best case scenario I think and given that the turn checked thru I think our fold equity plummets on the river.

 

[gopherblue]

Jam. What the hell, let’s make this interesting.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Yeah I can totally see that as well, but that's the best case scenario I think and given that the turn checked thru I think our fold equity plummets on the river.

Agree, if I’m in this spot I’m checking and crying when I see the hands a lot of the time. I’m really not worried about UTG at all. All he did was call a re-raise on the flop. He never made a bet, that feels like a drawing hand the whole way that missed.

But button can have a lot more combos with a Queen than there are of J10 to make me go with a check here.

 

[FDLmold]

Donk bet the river for $20. Watch em fold.