$2/5NL: Bottom set vs. TAG reg (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

Hand I just played. Still at table.

I pick up 33 in BB. $15 raise and 7 players get to the flop.

Flop ($105): 348r

SB checks I bet $60 folds to CO who makes it $150. Folds back to me.

Effective stacks are $1050. CO covers me. CO is excellent reg, very TAGish, tending to be on the tighter side of TAGish preflop.

My action?

 

[manamongkids]

I'm just calling, making it look like a few hands, maybe you have a 78 and just want to throw out a feeler bet. Maybe youre betting A8, A2, A3, A4, A5 with backdoor flush draw.

I think we can make more money on just flatting.

 

[slisk250]

flat

 

[thorwilliam]

I'm just calling as well. He is folding everything we beat if we raise (except 56s if we make a small rasie).

 

[bergs]

He has a set or overpair less than QQ. 44, 88, 99, TT, JJ. I hate this spot. Easier to play if there were a flush draw on board.

Flat and check/reevaluate turn.

 

[bergs]

Folding wouldn't be absolutely out of the world crazy if you had a lolliveread.

 

[Trihonda]

Flat, but a TAG player raising? Hmmm, smells like set-over-set, but could be QQ-AA-KK?

Who was the raiser pre? What was CO's action pre... I think that helps range him. If he's later to act, I can't see flatting the $15 pre bet with something like AA or KK. If he's got AA or KK, he's gonna hammer a $15 if it's limped to him 5-6 ways, right? So if he was later to act, he's likely on 44 or 88, as he's not calling $15 with 8-4. If he made the $15 bet pre, I could put him on QQ, AA or KK and then his actions post flop might make sense.

I think there's some chance we could be up against a bigger set. Drawing dead to the case 3.

 

[courage]

Yeah, flatting his raise. Checking the turn to evaluate but no big reason to think we're behind.

 

[manamongkids]

Yeah, flatting his raise. Checking the turn to evaluate but no big reason to think we're behind.

agreed, my assumption is over pair to the board or even possibly just AK

 

[Forty4]

Very narrow range here I'm going to say he has 66-99 maybe 10's. I think anything higher and with his position on 3-5 limpers he would want to put in a raise pre to get the button to fold and maintain premium position. With the lesser hands listed he's set mining and that is a great board for him if he holds the 99 (1010). I'm trying to get into his head and see what he thinks of your holdings? Clearly can't put you on 33 with the preflop raise out of position. Could see your c-bet as just part of the plan to pick up all the limped pot dead money on a rather harmless looking board. If he's putting you on AK then his play to raise you out of the pot. I'm trying not to see the worst possible scenario of 88. If he had that I think he smooth calls your flop bet and let's you build the pot. Think he does that with 44 as well. I'm more interested in what the villain thinks you hold. What is your current table image? What can he think you're raising with in the BB?

But flatting now checking the turn.

 

[MegaTon44]

Very narrow range here I'm going to say he has 66-99 maybe 10's. I think anything higher and with his position on 3-5 limpers he would want to put in a raise pre to get the button to fold and maintain premium position. With the lesser hands listed he's set mining and that is a great board for him if he holds the 99 (1010). I'm trying to get into his head and see what he thinks of your holdings? Clearly can't put you on 33 with the preflop raise out of position. Could see your c-bet as just part of the plan to pick up all the limped pot dead money on a rather harmless looking board. If he's putting you on AK then his play to raise you out of the pot. I'm trying not to see the worst possible scenario of 88. If he had that I think he smooth calls your flop bet and let's you build the pot. Think he does that with 44 as well. I'm more interested in what the villain thinks you hold. What is your current table image? What can he think you're raising with in the BB?

But flatting now checking the turn.

This was my exact thought process. Seems like villain is setmining, because a solid TAG would be unlikely to smooth call a small preflop raise with a handful of callers in front of him. I would figure that villain is putting hero on low suited connectors. I tend to skew more towards the conservative side, so I would be very concerned about 44 or 88 and folding would cross my mind.

That being said, I would likely talk myself out of folding and flat the flop and check the turn.

 

[jbutler]

Sorry if I was unclear. Neither I nor the villain were the preflop raiser. I donked and the PFR folded before villain acted.

 

[Forty4]

Yeah I think we are ahead then. He's probably got 99-JJ. Could be putting you on a draw or any pair on the board which he would beat.
Still flat and check

 

[DrStrange]

Missing a Hero read.

Villain is a "CO is excellent reg, very TAGish, tending to be on the tighter side of TAGish preflop" Could be he never has a pair as small as eights in which case Hero is golden. We don't know what the normal raise for this table. We don't know if villain plays a constant preflop raise amount. We don't know how sticky the table is preflop. Could easily be that Villain makes his normal $15 raise expecting 0-2 callers and gets the whole table instead. I would need a lot more specific read to decide villain is set mining - if anything that is contrary to Hero's villain description. Let me say right now, I vote on going broke here if villain has set over set.

Hero bets just a little more than half pot as a donk bet. That doesn't say "bottom set" to me, I'd say hero's range is filled with top pair hands and an occasional overpair.

So what is villain to do with a half pot donk bet? Is he folding any over pair? How about a big ace? Villain makes it $150 to go or a $90 raise into a $225 pot. That seems rather small, hard to say what that means beyond he expects a call.

I agree that a stiff 3-bet likely folds most of villain's range. Hero is in a way ahead / way behind situation - mostly way ahead. Let's trap and pretend Hero has top pair or an overpair. That makes the pot $405 and effective stacks $900.

My future plan is passive / trapping. I'd like some idea about how villain would proceed with a hand like QQ/KK/AA - does he bet all three streets or does he check behind?

DrStrange

 

[jbutler]

Everyone who advocates flatting, what is your plan for the turn. What cards are we betting, what cards are we check folding, what cards are we check raising, etc.?

 

[slisk250]

I'm checking the turn regardless of the card. The turn card and his bet size will determine if we bet or fold. I think bergs had it right to find a fold.

 

[MegaTon44]

I'm probably not betting or check folding any hands on the turn. Purely trap mode at this point. We have to assume hero is way ahead or else he is getting felted. 9 or 10 would certainly be scare cards, but with a low SPR, we are essentially committed at this point.

 

[mipevi]

Flat. Check/call turn, check/raise river.

 

[Jimulacrum]

My gut here was telling me to go passive, planning to check-call the turn and river, or a modest river bet if he checks back the turn.

But there's an important question I think needs answering: Is he going to pay us much more than this $150 bet if he has an overpair? If not—which I suspect with a TAG, especially if he's "excellent"—I think we should put in a decent but not-too-big reraise, say $350~400 all day.

• If we're ahead, we'll take the pot, which is not much less than we could hope to win anyway.
  
• If he shoves, he has tipped his hand and we can escape set-over-set relatively cheaply.
• If he flats, that feels trappy for a TAG with an overpair against such obvious strength, and I think we should plan to check the turn and fold to any reasonable bet. (But we should plan for a smallish value/blocking bet on the river if he checks back the turn.)

This is a bit of a tricky spot, and the downside is way bigger than the upside. This play should let us escape a significant portion of that downside a lot of the time we're behind.

 

[gopherblue]

What he said.

 

[bergs]

I'm betting a 3 for sure on the turn.

Also betting A, 2, 5, 6, 7. I just don't thing a TAG reg raises the flop with a drawing hand unless your image is like mine (terrible).

I'm check calling 4 or 8. If villain ends up with quads, there's always the movies.

Don't want to see 7, 9, T, J.

Probably check calling Q, K, A.

 

[guinness]

At this point this is a value extraction hand. If we could put CO on a huge pair (we don't) we could check and let him supply the action for the rest of the hand, but as is, I don't think he's going to be pushing the action too much on the remaining streets unless he has a set which is a huge reach to conclude at this point.

As BB, flatting leaves us out to dry for the rest of the hand. The turn card isn't going to affect either of your hands. I bet $350 and puke fold to a jam based on OP description.

 

[courage]

Villain reraised hero on flop so we should expect him to bet. Curious to see what his bet size will be.

$405 in pot, $825 in our stack. I'm check/calling all turn cards, may consider check raising or leading if a T, J or Q hits and we wish to turn our hand into a bluff.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I'd approach this with the mentality that I'm trying to extract maximum value rather than trying to find a fold against a set over set spot.

So I think a call is our best option here, with a plan for a check-raise on the turn.

 

[Psypher1000]

I think bergs had it right to find a fold.

+1

 

[jbutler]

As BB, flatting leaves us out to dry for the rest of the hand. The turn card isn't going to affect either of your hands. I bet $350 and puke fold to a jam based on OP description.

I hope you're not too attached to your lunch.

I decided I had no plan for any turn card apart from I suppose the case 3 and that I'm not interested in flatting and rolling naked on the turn, but I am also not huge stacked behind. I raised small to $300 and the guy absolutely immediately makes it $650 total to go in green.

So now the pot is $705 and it's $350 to me.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I hope you're not too attached to your lunch.

I decided I had no plan for any turn card apart from I suppose the case 3 and that I'm not interested in flatting and rolling naked on the turn, but I am also not huge stacked behind. I raised small to $300 and the guy absolutely immediately makes it $650 total to go in green.

So now the pot is $705 and it's $350 to me.

Well, based on your description in the OP he's got to have a set here like 99% of the time, right? I guess we have to find the fold. that's pretty brutal

 

[inca911]

Remember that set over set is like 1%, so 99% of the time it's a hand like TPTK or overpair you are facing. Long term, you want to get $ in and you will be a long term winner. I think AA or KK don't fit. QQ also likely not. This Villian isn't raising an OE straight draw, plus that's a hand he is unlikely playing (i.e., based on your tight description). He would probably trap you with top set, so the raise feels like a steal attempt vs AK hands. IMHO, you seem to be playing scared of this player and this is not the guy you want to see another card. I try to chat him up to get info, and unless he gives me something, and based on this particular situation with this player, I raise his post-flop bet $400ish (amount depends on the historical play. If he pushes, you get a second chance for a read to keep half your stack.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Remember that set over set is like 1%, so 99% of the time it's a hand like TPTK or overpair you are facing. Long term, you want to get $ in and you will be a long term winner. I think AA or KK don't fit. QQ also likely not. This Villian isn't raising an OE straight draw, plus that's a hand he is unlikely playing (i.e., based on your tight description). He would probably trap you with top set, so the raise feels like a steal attempt vs AK hands. IMHO, you seem to be playing scared of this player and this is not the guy you want to see another card. I try to chat him up to get info, and unless he gives me something, and based on this particular situation with this player, I raise his post-flop bet $400ish (amount depends on the historical play. If he pushes, you have to get a second chance for a read to keep half your stack.

Effective stacks are $1,050 and Villian has just raised the total to $650. We are either playing for stacks at this point or we aren't, there is no spoon

 

[guinness]

Villain reraised hero on flop so we should expect him to bet.

So do we expect him to fold a raise? If you had AA, would you play the same? The hands are already in play (turn/river likely don't matter). I believe driving the action began with the initial bet and I'm driving more to get information we don't have yet. If he folds $350 due to A8 suited or 77 or some wonky shit like that then so be it but I think he's stronger than that and we need to get firing before we face a stacks decision.

We haven't even talked about Butlers image yet and how he is perceived by CO. I'm assuming both players are playing/running decent with 1K+ so maybe that info is less a factor. If he's playing loosey goosey at all, a raise is absolutely in order here.