$2/5NL: Bottom set vs. TAG reg (2 Viewers)

[jbutler]

Remember that set over set is like 1%, so 99% of the time it's a hand like TPTK or overpair you are facing. Long term, you want to get $ in and you will be a long term winner.

I think this is a bit like the argument for intelligent design. There's a .000001% chance that we would evolve to conscious beings from nothing. Therefore, it is more likely that we were created by a higher being. Except we're pretty biased being that we are the iteration that did evolve and we're not looking into the faces of all the species that went kaput as soon as they tried to step out of the pond.

There may be a 1%ish chance of facing set over set, but to say due to the sheer unlikelihood that it's not happened here gives up all the advantage we hope to gain by creating a player profile, being conscious of gameflow, etc.

FWIW IMO there is a stone cold zero chance that any competent player makes it $650 with A8.

 

[thorwilliam]

Remember that set over set is like 1%, so 99% of the time it's a hand like TPTK or overpair you are facing. Long term, you want to get $ in and you will be a long term winner.

With seven people to the flop and this action against this player I would assume its more like 99% of the time that this is a set over set situation.

 

[MegaTon44]

Hero must fold. A TAG villain 4-betting the flop into a dry board is disaster. You are crushed.

 

[inca911]

Effective stacks are $1,050 and Villian has just raised the total to $650. We are either playing for stacks at this point or we aren't, there is no spoon

I was replying to the original post from late last night. Jbutler posted his play while I was typing. That play is basically what I would do. He didn't appear to chat up the guy before the bet though, and that Intel is key to these hands. You have to extract information to get a read on a critical hand that defies the odds. The time for that was prior to the post-flop bet. If you play math only, you put it in.

My post was all before the $300 jbutler bet. His play is same as mine, and I can fold here if I get no read.

 

[courage]

@guinness, all good points and I was flatting on value extraction, but have to agree with you and @Jimulacrum and the line hero took to 3bet raise flop for info oop is better.

Now hero is 4bet and has half his stack in middle. Villain isn't described as type to spazz off with an overpair, so the plan for the hand had to be a fold in this spot if raised. Otherwise we'd play the trappy line with plan to get stacks in on later streets.

Puke.

 

[jbutler]

If you play math only, you put it in.

What are the relevant calculations that would allow us to play math only in this scenario?

 

[Ben]

On flop when he raises villain has set or (smallish) overpair. Virtually never anything else. I don't like flatting because if overpair I doubt a tight TAG puts another chip in the pot unless he happens to bink. I 3-bet to $350, snap-fold to a 4-bet (which happened...)

 

[guinness]

FOOOOOLD.

 

[guinness]

FWIW IMO there is a stone cold zero chance that any competent player makes it $650 with A8.

Of course. His raise is now stratospheric levels of strength. Buh Bye.

 

[inca911]

What are the relevant calculations that would allow us to play math only in this scenario?

Again, my post was before all the post-flop betting action was posted. I was typing while you posted that info. I would have bet a little more than you actually bet, but I agree that flatting vs. this guy wasn't an opion. With his raise/shove to my $300/400 bet, I would talk the guy up before I decided to fold. If I get a read I don't like (or no read), I can easily fold this hand against this opp; however, how I fold the hand is still up for consideration. You can agonize and quietly muck. You can quickly muck. And of course, you can sit there, stare the guy down, and muck face-up with some commentary (think Rounders). That's the play I would consider at this point. Without a read, I agree that you are probably beat. If you are beat, you still can decide what message you want to send the table. That's the final value you can still extract from this hand. So, how did you fold your hand?

 

[H|Q]

Late to the party but I would have raised the flop to $300 as you did.

Now I'm thinking fold. What is your image? Do you have history?

 

[DrStrange]

I see I was mistaken about who made the original raise preflop, that is going to change villain's range a lot. Top and middle set loom larger and a monster pair is much less likely.

We have reached the point in the thread where two problems emerge, first the posters are often biased by the fact the hand is posted (and by a second post by OP noting he ends up down big for the night) making us want to see a set v set situation. Second, Hero's next decision is greatly based on the villain read, hero's table image and game flow.

Hero can find a fold here if he can tighten villain's range to sets rather than overpairs. The 2-bet and 4-bet were very small, sized to induce a call - this can easily be a bet sizing tell but Hero would have to tell us what it means (but I don't like it, suggests strength).

I rarely find a reason to fold a set on a board this dry. However, there are villains I know who could get me to fold here. I don't know enough about the players to make that decision.

I offer Hero no advice. The situation is dangerous but potentially an opportunity. I don't have the key, complex data to make a judgement.

DrStrange

 

[Anthony Martino]

Step I: Develop image of successful ultra TAG
Step II: 4-bet dry flops
Step III: Profit

 

[bergs]

For me it was the reg TAG description. Regs don't generally play creatively and they don't raise flop bets light. I'm still thinking he had smallish overpair less than QQ or a set.

I do like the bet/fold line here tho - perfect place for it. Flatting was bad because we're setting ourselves up for disaster on the turn.

Bet $300 and fold when raised on flop.

 

[bergs]

FWIW at a northeast meat-up this is a fist pump bull dance jam.

 

[DrStrange]

I had to come back and question the wisdom of a 3-bet on the flop. Hero's 3-bet lets villain fold a lot of his losers, hands like A8 or 99 etc. Prior to the 3-bet Hero's range was filled with weaker one pair hands and now hero is suggesting a much more powerful range.

If this is a set vs set situation, then Hero's 3-bet might let him save his stack. However, if the hand had gone, Hero 3-bets and villain sigh/folds we wouldn't be so gunk-ho for the 3-bet plan.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

How do you expect to learn to bink one outers when you're folding set under sets? Jam!!!

 

[jbutler]

How do you expect to learn to bink one outers when you're folding set under sets? Jam!!!

Can't really disagree.

Spoiler

 

[Mr Tree]

How do you expect to learn to bink one outers when you're folding set under sets? Jam!!!

You can't learn to bink the one outter. You are either born with it or not.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Fold to Villain's 4-bet. He has a bigger set, and we just saved about $700 in a situation that would be a cooler for most people.

Remember that set over set is like 1%…

We're not looking at P(set over set) from a raw deal. We're looking at P(set over set) given that (a) we do already have a set, and (b) TAG Villain has 4-bet over our very strong 3-bet on this particular flop. In this case, P(set over set | (a) and (b)) is very close to 100%.

Especially that raise to $650. Can he beg for a call any harder? Really glad he didn't flat, though, because that's the only move that leaves us in a weird/tough spot.

 

[bergs]

The argument against bet/folding the flop is that he flats and we're ugh heading into turn.

I still like bet/folding because it gives us a chance to win the pot. If we check and it checks thru then we never gave ourselves a chance and we're in the same spot on the turn.

A smaller flop bet against this kind of player may work too. If we bet $175 and he raises, it still demonstrates the same amount of strength IMO.

 

[inca911]

Fold to Villain's 4-bet. He has a bigger set, and we just saved about $700 in a situation that would be a cooler for most people.

We're not looking at P(set over set) from a raw deal. We're looking at P(set over set) given that (a) we do already have a set, and (b) TAG Villain has 4-bet over our very strong 3-bet on this particular flop. In this case, P(set over set | (a) and (b)) is very close to 100%.

Especially that raise to $650. Can he beg for a call any harder? Really glad he didn't flat, though, because that's the only move that leaves us in a weird/tough spot.

Trust me, I understand that. All the major betting action was after the flop, which was simultaneously-posted during the four minutes while I typed my post. When the flop hits and without any additional information, set-over-set will occur roughly 1% of the time was my point. The betting and specific player profiles/behaviors enable us to interpret if we are facing a 99% situation or a 1% situation. I have no problem folding this hand with all the relevent post-flop betting info (and no read on the Villian); however, how to fold is still up for debate. If I'm folding, I still want to try to extract future value by shaping my table image with how I fold. Insta-fold and you may increase the view that you are passive/weak and can be pushed around, or that you were caught bluffing at it. A quick comment or behavior can steer the table to either conclusion. A long look with a face-up fold may either buy you major respect (if you were right), or show everyone you are ultra tight and can be pushed around. Developing the perception that will profit you the most at this table is important, especially if you don't play with this group much.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Just throwing this out there, OP says villain is an "excellent reg, very tag-ish". Isn't it possible that OP has a blocker to top set, something like 87 or 89 suited, and with Heroes small-ish 3 bet and most likely nitty image knows that hero will most likely throw away a smaller set to a four bet? If he is excellent, he probably shouldn't be so predictable as to only have sets in his range here (unless he knows he's playing against a calling station). I agree with the awesomely handsome, witty, and intelligent poster (and humble) who said "Jam!!!" earlier.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I mean, Phil Ivey couldn't fold bottom set of threes to Max Weinberg. What, do you think you're better than Phil Ivey?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Trust me, I understand that. All the major betting action was after the flop, which was simultaneously-posted during the four minutes while I typed my post. When the flop hits and without any additional information, set-over-set will occur roughly 1% of the time was my point. The betting and specific player profiles/behaviors enable us to interpret if we are facing a 99% situation or a 1% situation. I have no problem folding this hand with all the relevent post-flop betting info (and no read on the Villian); however, how to fold is still up for debate. If I'm folding, I still want to try to extract future value by shaping my table image with how I fold. Insta-fold and you may increase the view that you are passive/weak and can be pushed around, or that you were caught bluffing at it. A quick comment or behavior can steer the table to either conclusion. A long look with a face-up fold may either buy you major respect (if you were right), or show everyone you are ultra tight and can be pushed around. Developing the perception that will profit you the most at this table is important, especially if you don't play with this group much.

Gotcha, didn't realize the timing there. In our first action on the flop, we absolutely shouldn't be worrying about another set yet.

And agreed on image while folding. My preferred act here in a public cardroom is to play it off like I was making a move—insta-fold and maybe crack a joke about how ace-high is good. It's not like I have to think about it. I already decided to fold to a raise before I 3-bet.

I don't want anyone to know I just folded a set unless it's going to win me a bet or something. I don't need to entice people to start min-raising me in weird spots and otherwise getting unpredictable.

 

[courage]

I'm not in the habit of folding sets face up at nlhe unless I'm wearing my PLEASE BLUFF ME t-shirt.

 

[Ronoh]

Again, my post was before all the post-flop betting action was posted. I was typing while you posted that info. I would have bet a little more than you actually bet, but I agree that flatting vs. this guy wasn't an opion. With his raise/shove to my $300/400 bet, I would talk the guy up before I decided to fold. If I get a read I don't like (or no read), I can easily fold this hand against this opp; however, how I fold the hand is still up for consideration. You can agonize and quietly muck. You can quickly muck. And of course, you can sit there, stare the guy down, and muck face-up with some commentary (think Rounders). That's the play I would consider at this point. Without a read, I agree that you are probably beat. If you are beat, you still can decide what message you want to send the table. That's the final value you can still extract from this hand. So, how did you fold your hand?

inca911: I tell you what I see when I look out there. I see the undeveloped resources of Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and Michigan. I see a syndicated development consortium exploiting over a billion and a half dollars in forest products. I see a paper mill and if the strategic metals are there, a mining operation. A greenbelt between the condos on the lake and a waste management facility focusing on the newest rage in toxic waste, medical refuse. Infected bandages, body parts, IV tubing, contaminated glassware, entrails,syringes, fluids, blood, low grade radioactive waste all safely contained sunken in the lake and sealed for centuries. Now I ask you what do you see?

Ronoh: I see trees...

 

[jbutler]

I mean, Phil Ivey couldn't fold bottom set of threes to Max Weinberg. What, do you think you're better than Phil Ivey?

Evidently.

Gotcha, didn't realize the timing there. In our first action on the flop, we absolutely shouldn't be worrying about another set yet.

And agreed on image while folding. My preferred act here in a public cardroom is to play it off like I was making a move—insta-fold and maybe crack a joke about how ace-high is good. It's not like I have to think about it. I already decided to fold to a raise before I 3-bet.

I don't want anyone to know I just folded a set unless it's going to win me a bet or something. I don't need to entice people to start min-raising me in weird spots and otherwise getting unpredictable.

I wish I could have done the snap fold "I was making a move thing", but I tanked for a while, so that was out the window. The rare chance that I might ever fold a hand face up goes to absolute zero if I'm folding a set on this flop.

The last thing I want is for any recreational player to see anyone else fold a set ever. In their minds, if you lose with a set it was a cooler and there is nothing that could be done. Never mind that the flop came 789 with three spades and they had 77. They had a set and therefore they should go broke. I don't want to persuade them any differently.

Also, secondarily, there are a couple of very good players at the table and:

I'm not in the habit of folding sets face up at nlhe unless I'm wearing my PLEASE BLUFF ME t-shirt.

So anyway, yes, I folded. I guess I kind of frustratedly spiked my cards down into the muck and one of the good players watching the hand intently saw a three as I folded and started asking me if I folded pocket threes. Of course I had to say "Are you crazy, I would have taken out a second mortgage to put more money on the table with a set." The guy wouldn't stop talking about it, though. "What else could he have there? He has to have folded a set of threes." And the table was very taken up in this conversation. Villain never contributed to the conversation, so I couldn't tell you 100%, but I'm pretty sure it was the right fold.

 

[courage]

Good fold. Please don't damage the cards next week when you fold to me. (y) :thumbsup:

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

This thread about you supposedly folding flopped sets is some sort of level for BBotB, right? I'll bet you secretly like Billy Joel even.