It is possible that both sides of the Paulson chip price debate can be directionally correct here.
I am definitely in the camp that most actual casinos are not paying $5 for a $1 or 25 cent chip from Paulson. They would be much more hawkish about people taking their chips if that were the case. I also think that for a long time real casinos paid less than $1 a chip (especially since Paulson was selling to the public at less than that price), but based on some market dynamics I think that price is now over $1 a chip as casinos are switching to hot stamps, ceramics or are much more strict about people taking the low denom chips, etc. But my opinion is that there is no way real casinos are paying $5 a chip. My guess is that the price may be creeping up to about $1.50-2.25 a chip, but not much more than that.
So why do I say both sides can be directionally right? The price that MGM pays for chips form Paulson is definitely not the same price that some backdoor deal that goes against Paulson’s stated company policy is going to pay. There will be a premium due to small size of the client and there will be a premium for the “questionable” or non-traditional style of deal that is taking place. How much that premium is, I don’t know, but what I do know is that whatever price is being paid on that deal is not the same price Caesars is paying for its Paulsons. So in my mind, it is very possible that Ceasars is paying $1.50 a chip and a NAGB is paying $5 a chip.