$5/5 PLO: How to handle the nuts with a redraw 200+BBs deep (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

Playing shorthanded $5/5 PLO at Borgata versus three very good players and one semi-clueless guy and one guy I'll describe below. The three good players are all $10/25+ regs who are playing this because it's the only PLO game running. The game typically plays deep ($500-$2500 buy-in), but I min-buy, so it's only 100BBs effective for me until I run it up. This hand came after I had doubled, so I'm sitting with about $1100 and change.

Relevant villain is one of the best limit hold em players who regs Borgata (bracelet winner in limit hold em). He typically plays the highest straight LHE game available. I don't know what kind of experience he has in PLO, but he's a bright card player in general obviously. And he knows two of the guys in the game who play $10/25+ PLO, so maybe he's more experienced than I know. He sat with $1k and doubled through the best player in the game in a pretty standard spot. So he has $2k+ and obv covers my $1100ish.

Here, our limit hold em specialist opens from UTG+1 to $20. I call with Js9d8s8h. Semi-clueless guy calls from one of the blinds.

Flop ($65): QcTs8c

Blind checks, UTG+1 pots.

One relevant detail is that you can run it twice post flop if it gets heads up.

My action?

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Pot!

 

[manamongkids]

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

Pot with a can of lighter fluid

 

[Ben]

Once again, need more info on the donk. "Clueless" doesn't tell us very much. Knowing your donks is probably more important than knowing your "strong" players.

 

[jbutler]

Once again, need more info on the donk. "Clueless" doesn't tell us very much. Knowing your donks is probably more important than knowing your "strong" players.

To be clear, the donk is the player who checked from the blind. The player who potted is a very skilled LHE player. The donk behind in the blind folds to significant action so I expect him to fold to the initial pot and almost certainly if I put any heat on it.

 

[ohikthxbye]

Pot it all day. AKJ9 and any clubs are horrible cards. You have backdoor spades and bottom boat redraw if you get it in against other draws.

When this hand happens to me on Bovada though, they flip over JTccT9xx or QQxxJ9cc and I feel dumb. Can't be mad at the super coolers thought, just pray you are on the right side of them.

 

[ohikthxbye]

To be clear, the donk is the player who checked from the blind. The player who potted is a very skilled LHE player. The donk behind in the blind folds to significant action so I expect him to fold to the initial pot and almost certainly if I put any heat on it.

PLO is a less sneaky game in my eyes. On this board, you have to just end the hand or get it in. Other boards you can flat flop and get it in on the turn, but not this one with your current hand.

 

[jbutler]

Pot it all day. AKJ9 and any clubs are horrible cards. You have backdoor spades and bottom boat redraw if you get it in against other draws.

When this hand happens to me on Bovada though, they flip over JTccT9xx or QQxxJ9cc and I feel dumb. Can't be mad at the super coolers thought, just pray you are on the right side of them.

Finding the right side of the redraws is sort of my main question here. How do we rate our redraw? If we get it in vs J9 with clubs are we happy enough with it?

 

[manamongkids]

Finding the right side of the redraws is sort of my main question here. How do we rate our redraw? If we get it in vs J9 with clubs are we happy enough with it?

No, IMO.

Someone could of flopped the same nuts with a better redraw. J9QQ, J91010, KQJ92 clubs

More often than not in PLO, they do have it, especially multi way

 

[Ben]

PLO is a less sneaky game in my eyes. On this board, you have to just end the hand or get it in. Other boards you can flat flop and get it in on the turn, but not this one with your current hand.

Agree in this instance, but disagree in principle. If we knew the bettor to be a strong PLO player and the player behind to be likely to put money in with a weak hand if we just flat, that would be my play. Marginal-equity spots in PLO (of which there are many and more on the flop) can be made a lot less marginal (one way or the other) by waiting until later in the hand to decide whether to shovel in money. Potentially adding dead money from weaker players left in the hand is a sweetener.

In this spot, I raise - butler says the donk isn't calling anyway, and the "LHE guy" may be willing to get in 200 bb in a spot that he shouldn't (most likely holding I'd say is AKJx, with or without clubs - which he may stack off with.)

Finding the right side of the redraws is sort of my main question here. How do we rate our redraw? If we get it in vs J9 with clubs are we happy enough with it?

Aren't we a tiny equity favorite in that scenario? All we're really afraid of is KJ9xcc, and that's still not that bad. I think the holdem monkey will get it in with far less. Repot.

Someone could of flopped the same nuts with a better redraw. J9QQ, J91010, KQJ92 clubs

More often than not in PLO, they do have it, especially multi way

They do have IT (i.e. the nuts, OR a good draw to the nuts) but they don't that often have IT with the mega-redraw to trump your boat redraw. That's pretty monsters-under-the-bed even for PLO, IMO.

What would anyone do here if they were villain and they had raised pre with say, AKK3 with a suit (not clubs?) You going to just check-fold this flop?

 

[jbutler]

They do have IT (i.e. the nuts, OR a good draw to the nuts) but they don't that often have IT with the mega-redraw to trump your boat redraw. That's pretty monsters-under-the-bed even for PLO, IMO.

What would anyone do here if they were villain and they had raised pre with say, AKK3 with a suit (not clubs?) You going to just check-fold this flop?

Yeah I tend to agree with this, particularly the latter, which sort of brings up the idea that we have to put ourselves in situations to be 60/40 favorites since villain is likely willing to put in significant money with a hand like nut club draws or sets on the flop or perhaps the turn, but obviously are much more unlikely to put in a bunch of money on the river once they've already bricked out.

Want to hear dissenting views, though. Anyone want to take the position that we ought to be flatting here?

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

I think it's worth mentioning that V has plenty of 97xx in his range and we have could him totally dominated. He could have opened 9977, 9876, T987, 9987ss etc. He also has the other two sets in his range that he's betting pot with on a wet board.

Pot!

 

[DrStrange]

There are only two hands that Hero hates to see, QQJ9 and TTJ9. Lots of other hands give villain a fighting chance but nothing that hero should fear right now.

The real problem for me is what to do on a bad turn - and there are a lot of them. A, K, J, 9, club(not the ten) - 20 cards out of 45 left or 44% of the deck. Oh, and hero isn't going to feel really good about a queen or eight either. Hero has $885 left and the pot is $585 if he pots the flop. This is a nasty problem if the Villain wakes up betting on a scare turn card. Even with implied odds, Hero doesn't have the proper odds to try for his redraw.

I think Potting is best. Let's try and get Hero into position for the turn and river by raising and putting the rest of the field to the test. I vote Pot - and jam if pressed to it.

DrStrange

 

[courage]

Put me in the Flat camp. There are lots of turn cards that we won't love and our underfull redraw is essentially useless or will help us lose even more $. Also, player skills matter in this case.

VS loose donks I'm stacking off all day knowing my redraw is probably good; vs thinking player who can apply pressure on uncomfortable turn cards and knows hand values, I'd rather flat and evaluate. This type of player is often going to remain aggressive on turn with a set or flush draw and that's the street to pop it.

I'm gonna feel pretty good if the case 8 falls...

 

[jbutler]

They do have IT (i.e. the nuts, OR a good draw to the nuts) but they don't that often have IT with the mega-redraw to trump your boat redraw. That's pretty monsters-under-the-bed even for PLO, IMO.

There are only two hands that Hero hates to see, QQJ9 and TTJ9. Lots of other hands give villain a fighting chance but nothing that hero should fear right now.

The above thoughts led to my current thinking that to repot is the best option, but I'm honestly pretty torn.

Put me in the Flat camp. There are lots of turn cards that we won't love and our underfull redraw is essentially useless or will help us lose even more $. Also, player skills matter in this case.

I'm very sympathetic to this view and it was the one expressed by two players whose abilities exceed my own at PLO. We had a brief away-from-the-table conversation about an hour later about the hand and I'm honestly pretty torn. One of them said he would have flatted the whole way until the river was clean and the other said he'd have flatted the flop and gotten it in on the turn. My question for the flat-to-the-river guy is what are we betting and what are we hoping to get called by if the turn/river brick out? And are we ever paying off if the board pairs on the river and LHE bets?

I also decided to flat the clean turn card which I think is a giant mistake. May as well get it in at that point if he wants to draw as he's taking the worst of it unless he: (1) also has the nuts; and (2) has a flush draw; and (3) has a better boat draw.

So, results:

I flat. Blind folds.

Turn ($195): 7h

LHE pots. I flat.

River ($585): 6s

LHE checks. How much do I bet and what range and I targeting with my bet?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Would have re potted on the flop, and I'm potting now. hopefully he has top set and thinks you're turning a smaller set into a bluff.

 

[courage]

Great runout for hero. Any "9 and a piece" probably thinks they're chopping, so hopefully their flush draw or set got them to the river. Bet 400.

 

[DrStrange]

Villain isn't calling if he held a high wrap or a flush draw. The only hands calling are sets and someone with a dummy straight.

My default play is bet pot, but I think the villain is too cagy to call that much. I suggest Hero try $300 and see if that gets a call.

Expect folds mostly -=- DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Pot the flop. We really only fear 9J with a bigger set, in which case we're getting freerolled, but card removal makes a chop very probable (we'd be about a 3:2 dog). Aside from that, we're basically even money against 9J with a flush draw, and barely less than even money if Villain has a Broadway wrap plus flush draw. Almost all other cases, we're way ahead or freerolling an opponent with a bare 9J. Flatting lets bare flush draws and OESDs in too cheaply.

Pot the turn too. Same idea, except there are fewer villains to worry about and more potential second-best hands that could call. We shouldn't mind taking down a $390 pot if LHE folds to a repot.

On the river, what does our hand look like? We've taken a passive line the whole way on a very wet board, and no hand that wasn't the nuts on the flop could have improved to the nuts. If we were drawing, we've whiffed and can probably only win by betting. If we hit a small straight, we're probably checking.

Why would LHE check? If he has the nuts, a check is silly because he's letting all weaker hands get a free showdown. This kind of play makes the most sense when LHE has a strong but non-nut hand (set, small straight) and is hoping to entice a bluff to gain value from the weaker end of our range. It also makes sense if he has a total bust, in which case he's folding regardless of bet size.

If it is the way it looks, i.e., he's deliberately setting up a bluff-catcher, he may have already decided to call anything. An insta-pot may be our best bet. It should seem unbelievable enough to call if he's convinced that our passive line indicates a draw.

 

[jbutler]

Yeah, I think a big bet on the river is in order. I bet $500 with five black chips almost immediately when checked to and he immediately called. I tabled and he flashed me KcQxQxJc, pretty much the best possible hand he could have without already having the nuts.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Yeah, I think a big bet on the river is in order. I bet $500 with five black chips almost immediately when checked to and he immediately called. I tabled and he flashed me KcQxQxJc, pretty much the best possible hand he could have without already having the nuts.

NICE! Nothing like getting in a big value bet on the end.

 

[kirchhausen]

So now that we know what he had, even though you had the nuts on the flop he was a 64.63% favorite to win, (plus .61% to chop) on the flop. Even on the safe turn, it is still nearly a flip (he is 47.5% to win).

If he had J9QQcc or j91010cc, you would have been 9.02% to win with 37.56% odds to chop on the flop (he's winning outright 53.41% of the time), and on the turn you would be 2.5% to win and 62.5% to chop, with him basically freerolling you for 35% odds to win outright.

Based on your description of the player, I definitely flat the flop, and probably flat the turn as well.

 

[jbutler]

So now that we know what he had, even though you had the nuts on the flop he was a 64.63% favorite to win, (plus .61% to chop) on the flop. Even on the safe turn, it is still nearly a flip (he is 47.5% to win).

If he had J9QQcc or j91010cc, you would have been 9.02% to win with 37.56% odds to chop on the flop (he's winning outright 53.41% of the time), and on the turn you would be 2.5% to win and 62.5% to chop, with him basically freerolling you for 35% odds to win outright.

Based on your description of the player, I definitely flat the flop, and probably flat the turn as well.

Yeah he definitely had the puke hand for me. The only value here is that in addition to his draws he actually had a made hand that will occasionally pay the river. It would definitely not have been a mistake for him to call a repot on the turn had I taken that line.