99 in the big blind (2 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

Playing $1/$1 live, seven handed. We are at getting close to the end of the session. Everyone is in a good mood, though Crazy Jr joined the table late and promptly sent a third of the table home early. @David O is at the table, perhaps he will have some different perspectives? The Trops are still in play!

In this hand, we will look over the shoulder of one of the Villains and play a hand against DrStrange and Crazy Jr. This hand generated a bit of conversation with a range of opinions offered. Let's see what PCF thinks.

Cast of characters:

DrStrange has the button, playing $125 on a $100 buy in. He has had several more unfortunate hands that have kept the night from being a grand success. His table image is tight but even so people still call. DrStrange hasn't taken down one pot preflop by making a raise and he isn't going to this hand either.

Crazy Jr is SB playing $225. So far tonight has been good for Crazy Jr. He is picking up a nice share of premium hands and also hitting his speculative hands. He came very late to the game and seems like he is making up for lost time. His style is classic LAGtard.

Hero is in the big blind playing $50 and grasping for any sliver of hope. He is a sad sack player lost between tight prudence and LAGtard aggression. His game is characterized by a lack of follow through and impatience which is not a good combination. Mostly it is just a matter of time before someone gets all of his chips. He has dodged two foolhardy all-in where the Poker Gods saved him but that isn't going to happen every time.

The hand:

Everyone folds to the button (which is a shock). DrStrange raises to $6, in the standard range for the game. No one had any idea if this is a steal or a real raise - first time it has ever happened tonight. Crazy Jr calls.

Action on hero who holds . Action on hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much? Hero owes $5 to call. He has $49 left behind and the pot has $13 prior to Hero acting.

DrStrange

PS edited to make hero the big blind, not the second small blind

 

[atomiktoaster]

Call. Implied odds on the set makes it $5 to win $56 ($100?) if hero hits a 9 on the flop.

 

[Mr Tree]

I say raise. Our stack is too shallow to set mine here. Doc is a solid player but is also on an unraised button. My intention is to get all my chips in and let the poker gods decide on a short stack but an all in is too big here. I think I raise to about $30. I know this pot commits us and so does Doc. I think that coupled with A Crazy Jr squeeze may get him to fold a lot of hands. Crazy is crazy and I think he finds a lot of calls against this obvious overraise. I jam the pot on any flop if I get Crazy isolated. If he hits and beats me then he hits and beats me.

 

[mipevi]

Making it $30 to go sounds about right. Shove any flop, except 99x.

 

[courage]

Shove. We probably have the best hand for now but don't want to fade 2 players and their combined outs. Hopefully we'll get a caller and go HU.

 

[bentax1978]

Shove. We probably have the best hand for now but don't want to fade 2 players and their combined outs. Hopefully we'll get a caller and go HU.

I'd probably make it $49 total instead, just so I could respond to people when they ask me why the hell I raised so much. Oh wait, this isn't pokerstars where chat is disabled when you go all-in. Never mind, go ahead and make it $50.

 

[thorwilliam]

Shove. We probably have the best hand for now but don't want to fade 2 players and their combined outs. Hopefully we'll get a caller and go HU.

Yeah, I think I prefer this line.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

I'm probably either flatting or jamming in this spot. With Crazy Jr. in the hand I'm probably jamming. If Crazy Jr. is calling 30 he is probably calling 50 total. If Dr. is calling we are praying to be against AK because most else would have us dominated. I don't see a point in making it 30 to cry call our last 20 on a possibly two over card board.

Jamming > Calling > Raising > Folding

 

[Jimulacrum]

Shove. Stack's too short to do anything else, and with only 99 and so little money, scooping $13 would be a pretty decent result anyway.

Whatever happens after that, rebuy / top off to $200 so we can have some room to play actual poker.

 

[ohio3302016]

Call but you have to make sure you flop a set here.

 

[MegaTon44]

Shove. Stack's too short to do anything else, and with only 99 and so little money, scooping $13 would be a pretty decent result anyway.

Whatever happens after that, rebuy / top off to $200 so we can have some room to play actual poker.

This ^^^

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

I also say shove. Your stack is to short to play it anyway else. Put it all in all in the middle and let the poker gods sort it out, again.

 

[MegaTon44]

Anyone else scared to play in Doc's game for fear what their nickname would be on the Strategy thread?

My name would be Nitty McAsshole, I know it.

 

[DrStrange]

Hey! David O goes by David O in my threads.

 

[bentax1978]

Hey! David O goes by David O in my threads.

For now...

 

[DrStrange]

As a quick side bar. If Hero does go all in for $50, what do we think DrStrange's calling range would be? DrStrange's button raise range is wider than his overbet-shove calling range. What do we think it is?

This question is pivital to Hero's decision. Jaming could be negative EV is we start DrStrange off with too tight a range.

 

[DrStrange]

and one of the guys at the table sometimes goes by "cup cake" but that isn't descriptive and not used in my strategy threads.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

As a quick side bar. If Hero does go all in for $50, what do we think Dr?'s calling range would be? Dr?'s button raise range is wider than his overbet-shove calling range. What do we think it is?

This question is pivital to Hero's decision. Jaming could be negative EV is we start DrStrange off with too tight a range.

Based on the description of Hero, he is quite likely to be spewing here with marginal holdings which might convince the Dr. to call with a wider range that usual. I've read less than 5-6 hand histories from the Dr. so I don't know his exact tendencies but he does claim to be nitty. I would guess Dr.'s calling range might look something like AJs+(maybe AQ), AQo+(maybe AK), 77+

 

[courage]

As a quick side bar. If Hero does go all in for $50, what do we think DrStrange's calling range would be? DrStrange's button raise range is wider than his overbet-shove calling range. What do we think it is?

This question is pivital to Hero's decision. Jaming could be negative EV is we start DrStrange off with too tight a range.

DrStrange's calling range is AK, AQ, maayybe AJ and 88 or better.

 

[Jimulacrum]

As a quick side bar. If Hero does go all in for $50, what do we think Hero's calling range would be? Hero's button raise range is wider than his overbet-shove calling range. What do we think it is?

This question is pivital to Hero's decision. Jaming could be negative EV is we start DrStrange off with too tight a range.

We're only really scared of DrStrange having TT through AA. Those five hands do not make up nearly enough of a reasonable button PFR range to scare us off of 99 here. DrStrange can have a ton of different unpaired hands, and each unpaired (not assuming suited) hand can come 16 different ways, while paired hands can only come 6 ways each. His range is going to be heavily weighted toward unpaired hands that are a flip if he calls, but that he might even fold anyway, especially with the raise being on the button.

Also, DrStrange could feasibly raise and then call the shove with some smallish pairs that we beat, so there are a few cases where we're a big favorite, to balance out a couple of the big pairs.

 

[DrStrange]

By the numbers -

AK = 16 combinations
AQ = 16 combinations
AJs = 4 combinations

36 total

AA through TT are six combinations each

30 total

66 combinations out of 1,326 total possible is 5%

99 vs two over cards is a 55/45 favorite
99 vs an over pair is a 20/80 dog

99 vs the range listed has 39% equity. Risking $49 to win $106 requires 46% equity ----> $8 error before considering fold equity.

If we assume DrStrange raises 25% of the time on the button in a three way hand, that means he folds four time in five to the shove. Each time Hero picks up $8 - so four times in five Hero makes $8 and one time in five he gets called and loses $8 in equity. Net gain is $5

Four things to consider:

1. Crazy Jr is a favorable consideration. Hero and Crazy Jr have a massive history together. I'd guess Crazy Jr could call with a lot of hands like J5/K4/A2 that are 30/70 dogs to pocket nines if DrStrange folds..

2. Hero is giving up the opportunity to see a cheap flop and set mine or hope for a lucky low card flop. Not sure how that compares to the $5 win by shoving

3. Hero is in a poor mental state and might have bad judgement post flop if he flats.

4. The Doctor's range for calling might be wider like Jimulacrum suggested. If we add in 77 + 88 plus AJo to the Dr's range Hero's shove equity jumps to $7. Not as big a jump in equity as I would have thought, but still something to consider.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

I think we're mainly targeting Crazy Jr. with a shove here so having +EV against the Dr. is just a bonus.

Edit: I worded that poorly. I think our EV is so positive against Crazy Jr. that any small -EV against the Dr. would surely not affect the overall situation. Being +EV against the Dr. makes this an even better spot.

 

[courage]

By the numbers -

AK = 16 combinations
AQ = 16 combinations
AJs = 4 combinations

36 total

AA through TT are six combinations each

30 total

66 combinations out of 1,326 total possible is 5%

99 vs two over cards is a 55/45 favorite
99 vs an over pair is a 20/80 dog

99 vs the range listed has 39% equity. Risking $49 to win $106 requires 46% equity ----> $8 error before considering fold equity.

If we assume DrStrange raises 25% of the time on the button in a three way hand, that means he folds four time in five to the shove. Each time Hero picks up $8 - so four times in five Hero makes $8 and one time in five he gets called and loses $8 in equity. Net gain is $5

Four things to consider:

1. Crazy Jr is a favorable consideration. Hero and Crazy Jr have a massive history together. I'd guess Crazy Jr could call with a lot of hands like J5/K4/A2 that are 30/70 dogs to pocket nines if DrStrange folds..

2. Hero is giving up the opportunity to see a cheap flop and set mine or hope for a lucky low card flop. Not sure how that compares to the $5 win by shoving

3. Hero is in a poor mental state and might have bad judgement post flop if he flats.

4. The Doctor's range for calling might be wider like Jimulacrum suggested. If we add in 77 + 88 plus AJo to the Dr's range Hero's shove equity jumps to $7. Not as big a jump in equity as I would have thought, but still something to consider.

I don't think this includes the hands Doc might raise/fold? 22-77? A-rag.

 

[DrStrange]

No - that list is hands the Doctor would raise preflop and call the jam.

Later on I offer a guess at the number of hands the Doctor might raise/fold - something like 265 unspecified hands representing the 75% percentile through the 95% percentile. I guessed the Doctor would raise/fold four times for every one time he raise/calls.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm mainly targeting the $13 on the table with a shove. That's more than 25% of the amount of money we're risking, so winning it is significant.

Without doing too much formal math, our equity when called by DrStrange is a close call. Our equity when called by CJ probably has us as at least a modest favorite overall. Adding fold equity makes this a clearly profitable shove. We're up against two players who may well not have much, after all, and we have the 6th highest pair in the game.

Set-mining, on the other hand, would be maybe a break-even proposition in the long run, if even. We're just barely getting implied odds, and I'm not even sure I'm totally sold on that. You need a deeper stack to make implied-odds plays. With this little, you want to be pushing value, not speculating.

 

[courage]

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm mainly targeting the $13 on the table with a shove. That's more than 25% of the amount of money we're risking, so winning it is significant.

This was my thinking.

 

[DrStrange]

Opps - - I bungled the math and left out the $5 call from Crazy Jr. The case for jamming is a lot stronger.

 

[Ghoti]

I shove here.

 

[Pigzorz]

I shove here too, I think. But other option is to raise to something like $15 and shove basically any flop. But of course, you risk the A Q J flop that always comes when you try to pull that shit.

 

[DrStrange]

*** On to victory! ***

So I think we agree that raising or shoving is best. I vote for shoving, targeting Crazy Jr but also because Hero's mental state is a handicap post flop.

But Hero just calls. Three way action, $18 in the pot. Effective stacks $46.

Flop is:

Crazy Jr checks. Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting, how much?

DrStrange