99 in the big blind (3 Viewers)

[Pigzorz]

Is Dr. Strange the kind of player who sniffs out c-bets easily and would raise with his good-but-not-flop-hitting hand here? If we make it something like $12-14 might we get shoved off of it? Or could we make a hero call thinking Dr. Strange is bluff-raising our c-bet?

 

[DrStrange]

Remember, DrStrange is the preflop raiser. If hero bets here it would not be a C-Bet. Many would consider it a "donk" bet. (that isn't to say all such bets are bad or wrong, just that is the "term of art" for such a bet.}

 

[Pigzorz]

Remember, DrStrange is the preflop raiser. If hero bets here it would not be a C-Bet. Many would consider it a "donk" bet. (that isn't to say all such bets are bad or wrong, just that is the "term of art" for such a bet.}

Ah, you're right. I forgot we didn't raise here, because I was just thinking about it in my last post.

I'm not sure I consider it bad in this spot, regardless. Is hero check/folding here? I don't love that. If that was the thought, it was a real mistake not raising/shoving PF with that kind of stack.

If we put Dr. Strange as someone who will c-bet (actually c-bet) here, I don't hate a check/shove, but it would depend on a pretty decent sense of Dr. Strange's play, which hero might not have given his current mental state.

 

[atomiktoaster]

I find the check-fold here, but that's because I'm the only one set mining. Anyone care to educate me on the stack size necessary to be doing that correctly?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Check and fold to any reasonable bet.

I mean, unless we want to "set-mine" with the intention of needlessly hee-hawing off a bunch of additional money when we don't improve. Something tells me Hero is going to do that.

 

[DrStrange]

My preference for the jam is the special case of the SB Crazy Jr being willing to call such a bet with garbage. Vs normal villains it is a tougher call. I think the stack size vs the bet to be called is not at all clear.

And keep in mind that a flopped set is no sure thing to a) play for stacks post flop or b) win post flop. Hero is 8-1 to flop a set and his likely best case would be to stack one villain for $44 more plus the $13 in dead money while risking $5. So it is an 8-1 chance to flop it but the best hero could do is 11-1. I am not even sure that calling here is better than folding.

 

[DrStrange]

Read hero's table image and imagine how he will play this hand now . . .

 

[Pigzorz]

Getting a bad feeling about this one...can't say why.

In seriousness though, I guess check fold is right, but I guess I just wouldn't set mine with that stack. Have to raise PF. Doesn't make sense.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Read hero's table image and imagine how he will play this hand now . . .

He's going to frustration check-raise his stack into a pair of aces that will have to call, obviously.

 

[Mr Tree]

I find the check-fold here, but that's because I'm the only one set mining. Anyone care to educate me on the stack size necessary to be doing that correctly?

The 5 10 rule is a standard a lot of people use.

http://www.tournamentterminator.com...er-mathematics/effective-stacks-rule-of-5-10/

Basically a call commits over 10% of your stack so you should either be shoving or folding...not set mining. The payout isn't enough to justify the 89% of the time your set will miss.

 

[mipevi]

Checking, but not necessarily folding.

 

[courage]

Check.

 

[Ghoti]

I didn't read the whole op but if the villain is going to bluff that ace often I love the 'ol check-raise trap shove (or check-call if he puts you all-in) with second pair.

 

[DrStrange]

*** on to the turn ***

Hero bets $20, both villains call. Still three way action. $78 in the pot. Effective stacks = $26. Hero holds

Crazy Jr. starts offering poker lessons about playing vs DrStrange. "what do you think he has?" " You know you aren't going to beat him" " you only have a few dollars left, you should have shoved all in."

Turn is < >

Crazy Jr checks while continuing his poker lesson.

Action on Hero. Check/fold, check/call or go all in?

 

[courage]

Can't we just open fold since Hero is obv mentally challenged? At least we can save half our stack for next hand.

 

[Ghoti]

Haha, oops, we have two villains?!? I should prob read the op...

 

[MillyS]

Unfortunate betting strategy has put hero in a tight spot.

Pre-flop - should have shoved to possibly win smaller pot. - IMO the pot was lost at this point (with the call).
Post flop - check fold was the way to go.
Turn - I am still opting for a check fold (even an all in bet here isn't going to scare away Dr or Crazy)

 

[DrStrange]

It did seem like the hand went down hill for Hero as it progressed. Being on an underpair with a 1/3 pot bet left behind isn't leaving Hero with much of any options.

 

[ohio3302016]

Hero completely screwed up on the flop by not hitting the set. You simply can't win playing like that.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Despite the SPR of almost 1/3 being well past the pot-commitment threshold for most hands, it doesn't apply here.

We're a 22:1 dog, and even spiking a 9 may not be good enough sometimes. We're obviously beat in at least one place, and we have no fold equity.

Save the $26 for that $200 rebuy we're doing after this hand.

 

[MikesDad]

From Hero's frustrated point of view, this looks like a good card... I suspect he's shoving now

 

[mipevi]

I don't like it when a lagtard starts slowing down. Probably should have folded on the flop vs. 2 players, but now we're here so might as well shove before Dr. takes it down with a rivered Q

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Shove pre. Too short to set mine. Increasing your stack by almost 25% with 99 is awesome. Can get wide calls from Crazy Jr. with hands you dominate (44-88, K8s etc..)

Check fold post.

Crazy Jr. has a monster (speech).

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

To be honest, this hand has been played so poorly, on the prior 2 streets, I really don't know what to do now on the turn. I guess shove the turn, have the good Dr. show you an Ace, and go home and read a book on poker. Time to improve your poker acumen, if you wanna play in this game.

 

[courage]

So nobody puts doc on 56 suited on the button?

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

So nobody puts doc on 56 suited on the button?

Possibly. Doc's range here is huge. Seven-handed game, folded to button, the range of hands that Doc could potentially open with are huge. I know it would be for me.

 

[AlPresidente]

Pre-flop shove is obvious I think. I'd range Dr Strange as something like any ace, any pair, any two broadway, any suited king, any suited connectors when he opens from the button.

Post-flop, check to Dr Strange. I'd contemplate check-shoving if the Dr bet <$15 and crazy folded.

Turn is ugh. $78 in the pot with $24 back I think. Pretty hard to imagine we're best or folding better. I guess the doctor can fold tens here sometimes and crazy can call with a 7. Given how horrid we've played the rest of the hand may as well shove.

 

[DrStrange]

*** The end ***

Hero pushes his remaining chips in the pot. DrStrange jams all-in on top. Crazy Jr. gives one last bitter speech that basically said "I told you so" and folds.

The Doctor tables . Hero doesn't spike a nine - so he is busted for the last time and heads off home.

I am headed out to dinner. I'll offer some thoughts late tonight.

DrStrange

 

[MegaTon44]

Here's the question, does the Doctor call a preflop jam with AJs?

 

[DrStrange]

Yes AJs merited playing Hero for stacks if required, but it was borderline. A lot depended on DrStrange's stack sizing vs Crazy Jr. because of the risk posed by Crazy Jr. He is quite able to 4-bet jam with something like pocket fives (or a lot of other things) that would make for a really difficult decision. These thoughts were already "baked in the cake" because Hero had that look of a player ready to say "hell with it" and stack off with anything that looked pretty.

So the Doctor's plan was to 4-bet jam himself over a 3-bet from Hero preflop.