Ace-Jack in the Hijack, 25c/50c deep NLHE cash game (1 Viewer)

[Shaggy]

I'm posting this on behalf of @chipjoker. This was a hand he was involved in at @Donvito's last game.

It's about four hours through the eight hour night. Hero is up, but about $100 down from his max.

The Game:
25c/50c NLHE, $100 typical buy-in.

Relevant details:
MP1 ($120): Passive Old Man Coffee type. Loose, VERY passive... Likes to see flops. Very rarely raises pf with strong holdings. Will sometimes call to the river (never showing any aggression) with KK and drag the pot.
Hero in Hijack ($105)... Table image by most in game: Raises a lot. Generally solid.
CO ($80): Likes to see flops, won't show much aggression typically.
Button($150): @Shaggy, Tight-aggressive. Has a lot of strategy history with Hero. Not often 3-betting in this game.

The Hand:
MP1 limps 50c, Hero raises to $3 with . CO calls $3. Button raises to $10 total. MP1 calls $9.50. $7 to Hero, $26 in the pot.

Hero?

 

[CantSpellPoker]

 

[Kain8]

OMC cold calling the $10 should have us running for the hills. Happily fold.

 

[Shaggy]

OMC cold calling the $10 should have us running for the hills. Happily fold.

OMC is moreso this variety:

Typical old guy at the casino. Has a lot of tendencies like limping AK, flatting with KK to make sure there is no Ace on the flop, and stacking off with overpairs. Doesn't bluff much if ever. Often grumpy but not necessarily.

rather than this variety:

It's a tight older player who folds everything but top premium hands and when he's in the pot (especially when he stays in) watch out, because he will have the nuts. They often overbet the pot to protect their hand (especially if there's a flush draw on the board while they hold a set). They bet to end hands rather then milk people, because they're always scared of being outdrawn, even if there aren't many draws.

both descriptions quickly grabbed from 2+2. Perhaps a better description of MP1 is loose, VERY passive. OP edited.

 

[heisman]

You’re probably 85% behind but you’re getting 4 to 1 preflop with CO likely calling behind. I’d call just to see the flop but will plan to check/fold.

 

[Beakertwang]

If I were closing the action, I'd probably call, just because the pot is big. Since the CO is likely to call, rather than reraise, I like calling even more. I mean, it's $7 to see a flop with $33 in the pot. If the flop misses, hero gets away with not much lost.

 

[DrStrange]

Insta-fold. Hero gets a three-bet from an exceptionally tight three-betting player then several cold calls. The cold callers aren't exceptionally bad, but the three bet is horrible. I'd range him JJ+, AQ+ AJo sucks vs this range.

I wouldn't focus on the direct odds. I focus on the $95 left behind and worry the RIO risks are serious even when Hero hits top pair.

This has the potential to turn bad. I fold and write off the $3

DrStrange

 

[Shaggy]

Perhaps it is time to move this one forward. Seems like we have a mix of recommendations for calling or folding. Here is Hero's continued action:

The Hand:
MP1 limps 50c, Hero (HJ) raises to $3 with . CO calls $3. Button raises to $10 total. MP1 calls $9.50. $7 to Hero, $26 in the pot.

Hero calls $7, CO folds. Pot $33.75.

Flop:


MP1 checks, Action on Hero.

Hero?

 

[Beakertwang]

I'm checking.

 

[heisman]

I'm checking.

Same

 

[Kain8]

We have an SPR of almost 3 to 1. By checking to the raiser, we can see if Mr. Passive calls the 3-bettor's sizable flop bet (should be around $20-$30). Then you can decide if you want to rip it in with TPTK or think that something is fishy and get out of the way.

 

[DrStrange]

This situation is the classic rio runout Hero might have worried about. We have a three bet from a tight aggressive player. JJ+, AQ+ as a range (roughly two or three percent) Knowing Hero holds AJ, that is three pairs of aces, six pairs of kings, six pairs of queens and one set of jacks that like the flop = 16 hands and 24 hands with AK/AQ. Given Hero holds the ace of hearts, the button likely doesn't have a flush draw

So Hero might get one more bet out of the AQ/AK hands making a cbet. But the over pairs and set are going to play for stacks with the low SPR. Meaning Hero stands to win something like +$40 or lose -$105.

I'd like not to do this, if Villain is a "one and done" sort of c-bettor then let's let him bet (and call). If villain can barrel even all-in with a big ace sort of hand, then I like a $20 donk bet.

We shouldn't forget there is another player in the hand. I'd like to know if he is calling or folding, though his range is filled with draws and one pair kinds of hands. It is going to be hard to parse where hero stands though I think hero's TP/TK is way ahead of his range at the moment. This often isn't as true after we see a turn card.

 

[Anthony Martino]

If your ace was suited I could see maybe calling

The problem is we are trapped between a player who will limp call all the way with KK, and another player whose range is likely crushing our hand

If we flop a Jack or Ace, how broke do we want to wind up?

This is a fold for me. I'm with the good doctor here.

 

[Pinball]

In my opinion this is a perfect example why the fold pre flop would have been the best option

 

[Mattsme]

 

[Legend5555]

I'd call pre if it was suited as you have potential to win stacks against at least 2 players by drawing to a nut hand. Suited As play well multi way in large pots.

As is, fold. You are going to be sandwiched between a player whose range has you in bad shape and has position on you, and a player whose range isn't well defined by his call. Just cut you loses and find a better spot.

 

[Shaggy]

...and continuing.

The Hand:
MP1 limps 50c, Hero (HJ) raises to $3 with . CO calls $3. Button raises to $10 total. MP1 calls $9.50. $7 to Hero, $26 in the pot.

Hero calls $7, CO folds. Pot $33.75.

Flop:


MP1 checks, Hero checks. Button bets $25. MP1 calls. Pot $83.75. Hero?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Fold, buttons bet indicates a made hand protecting itself from straight and flush draws here

 

[CantSpellPoker]

I already folded pre-flop, but I'm folding again here.

 

[grebe]

Just jumping in here.

I'm calling the flop bet, closing the action. Let's see a turn, knowing there is a good chance we are second best, but we could also be up against AK and/or a pair smaller than 10's. I'm only calling because we are closing the action. Hoping for 2 pair, trips, or a heart. Probably setting money on fire here.

 

[BGinGA]

I'm with the Doctor -- I'm folding pre-flop. AJo is a horrible hand in this spot -- you can whiff the flop and lose your $7 call, or hit either top pair on the flop and lose your stack.

Folding pre-, and as played, folding flop even faster. Hero likely has the 4th best hand in a three-way pot.

 

[Kain8]

You can't call here, period. You either need to shove or fold it up.

Fold>>>>>>>Shove all-in>>>>>Call.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is lost. In a better world we wouldn't be here . . . .

Hero might be holding the best hand vs a c-bet and a loose calling station.

Hero might be in second place vs a button 3-betting an over pair and the calling station. Hero could be in dire condition if the calling station is drawing with KQ - a hand smack in the heart of a limp/cold call range - two outs to a jack then fade a big redraw.

On a terrible day the passive calling station has the best hand which Hero will never see coming until showdown.

But what can we do? Hero is likely ahead at the moment, let's call it 50% hero, 40% button, 10% calling station. If Hero jams, he gets called by better and folds the air from the c-bet. If Hero jams for his last $70, the pot is ~$110 so the draws aren't likely to fold getting odds close to proper. Even when Hero is ahead on the flop, the draw comes in something like 30% of the time.

Can we just call? Maybe planning to fold on a "bad" turn?? But what is a bad turn? Any card bigger than a six is bad except for a second jack, plus all hearts are potentially bad. Hero could easily decide top pair/top kicker is pot committed with a $70 stack and a $110 pot.

I am a chicken, so I like a cowardly fold. But really it is hard to say folding is mathematically best. The expected value of a jam could be positive depending on how wide button's three bet range is and how often he c-bets. Hero crushes MP1's range preflop but now it is closer with many more draws than monsters. Even a passive check / call line might be the winner vs a really wild c-betting button.

Bottom line < ??? > how lucky does Hero feel -=- DrStrange

 

[Shaggy]

We've gotten some great responses and analysis so far.

...continuing.

The Hand:
MP1 limps 50c, Hero (HJ) raises to $3 with . CO calls $3. Button raises to $10 total. MP1 calls $9.50. $7 to Hero, $26 in the pot.

Hero calls $7, CO folds. Pot $33.75.

Flop:


MP1 checks, Hero checks. Button bets $25. MP1 calls. Pot $83.75. Hero calls.

Turn ($108.75):


Remaining Stacks:
MP1 ($85)
Hero ($70)
Button ($115)

MP1 checks, Hero?

 

[grebe]

Check.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Well, now you can shove with the naked ace bluff. Probably your best shot of winning, and you have outs if called

 

[DrStrange]

This is a good semi-bluff opportunity vs the right villains. Hero's line so far is consistent with flush draw. So the question is, will button fold an overpair here? There is no point to making the bluff if Hero isn't hopeful for a fold from button. Getting a fold from MP1 isn't likely a good thing. MP1 often is behind Hero's hand and drawing fairly weakly. MP1 isn't folding a flush and likely not a straight.

Hero also stands to get a free card if he checks. A number of buttons will check behind holding no hearts - they shouldn't check with less than a pot sized bet left though.

Give us a villain read and act accordingly. Bluff if button might fold a better hand, check otherwise.

 

[Shaggy]

Button is likely to fold to aggressive action on a scary board. Do you think a flush would actually lead out here? i.e. does the story make sense?

 

[DrStrange]

I tend to lead out with a flush. It is less than pot sized and button could have a naked heart king or queen he is drawing to. Same thing with the calling station. Let's give him a chance to call.

 

[JustinInMN]

So new to the party, this is interesting, but I think I want to visit a decision point that's been so far overlooked, but worth discussing.

I am not a huge fan of the raise to 3 with AJo. I think it limits the field the wrong way. Hero will tend to only get action from better hands and force the worse ones to fold that could provide value later on. Not a good spot to bloat a pot pre, imo. Also given that EP has pretty strong hands in his limping range making this decision worse, imo.

The one argument for raising this pre is the read on the cutoff, if "he likes to see flops" to point where he isn't terribly price aware, that make sense.

(On an aside if the EP player had the same description as the cutoff, I might like this raise a little more.)

Otherwise I say just limp and increase the chances of weaker aces or jacks coming along as can other hands that might make second pair that could pay off. This approach also punishes EP for under playing big pairs when hero flops an ace.

As for the second decision pre, this is an easy fold. If AJ is in hero's raising range it should be among the weaker of hero's raising hands. This is the sort of hand that should be released given the action.

The flop is the lesson in why hero should have folded pre. I think you can justify a check-fold line here, but obviously check folding a jack hi flop is a clear sign the fold pre was correct. Check call seems a bad line if hero is check folding the turn without improving. Check raise all in makes sense if we think both villians somehow missed or maybe turning jacks into a bluff hoping QQ folds.

I think check raise all in is the least bad option. Check call makes sense only if button is going to bluff the stack off, but even that line requires fading whatever EP holds.

On the turn I can see the temptation to shove before button, but we lose value from his bluffs doing that, and we will be called dead to 8-11 outs when beat.

So I guess I am dumping on every decision in this hand.