Aces, middle position. Should be easy? (2 Viewers)

[detroitdad]

@detroitdad

I was just letting @acl1904 that the current question being discussed is "what do we do now?" (after the check-raise on the turn)

Yes sir. My bad..........

 

[Anthony Martino]

I'm in the camp that villian has an underset, get the $$$ in!

 

[bergs]

If he did call $50 on the flop with a gutter and hit it, do not ever leave this table ever. Never, ever, ever, ever leave.

 

[thorwilliam]

If he did call $50 on the flop with a gutter and hit it, do not ever leave this table ever. Never, ever, ever, ever leave.

He called $18 on the flop.

 

[bergs]

He called $18 on the flop.

Oh, well, fuck. Well, our image becomes quickly relevant then...

Doc - what do you think he's ranging us with based on your experience at the table thus far?

 

[ChaosRock]

I think there's more than enough combos of hands that would call our shove with very, very little equity against out top set to offset the possible KQ (we still have some equity against it) there... From that perspective, I think it's a clear shove...

Now, what I've been trying to figure out is if we can do a bit better by just calling the turn and getting value from some of his missed draws (problem is I don't think there's too many he would fold to our shove anyways) and from the bottom of his range that would fold to a turn shove, hands like pair + Kh blocker... Given the texture of the board it's hard to see Villain with just a naked heart draw... Villain usually have a flush draw + gutter or flush draw + pair (outside of his value range) and I think he's not folding those also (rightly or wrongly)...

I think live it's a snap shove... With time to think, a call/call might not be that far off, but ultimately I think it's still a shove... Never folding the turn unless Villain has proved time and time again he always has the goods there, which based on his description, is not the case...

Shove...

 

[DrStrange]

This villain doesn't think in ranges. Probably he thinks Hero holds AK (like always). The Cougar is much more fixed on the clever trap he is springing than what Hero is doing.

 

[bergs]

This villain doesn't think in ranges. Probably he thinks Hero holds AK (like always). The Cougar is much more fixed on the clever trap he is springing than what Hero is doing.

Then I'm putting him on 2 pair or an underset and shoving all day. WHEEEEEEE!

 

[Don Clay]

Villain did re-raise, to $125 total.

Now the question is, did he do with with Broadway or a lesser set (or something else)? And of course the real question is, what do we do now?

Buy moar Paulson chips ??

 

[bentax1978]

Buy moar Paulson chips ??

That is always the right answer

Win a big hand, celebrate by buying moar chips; Lose a big hand, console yourself by buying moar chips.

 

[DrStrange]

*** it IS easy! ***

Hero calls $75. Heads up, $310 in the pot. Effective stacks are $400. Hero holds for Aces full.

River is < >

Villain checks.

Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting how much?

 

[MegaTon44]

May need to value bet a bit here because I wouldn't be certain he calls a jam. I'd probably put $175 out there and hope he pops it.

 

[acl1904]

Go for the jugular and bet $300. He might think you have a busted flush or straight and are trying to buy it.

 

[krafticus]

I know this is no help, but unless he shows me pocket tens, I don't see how you could ever check behind. I'm betting roughly the size of pot and hoping for a check raise with KQcc.

Mark

 

[Split]

A Jack or Deuce would have been better on the river. As is, there's a good chance that the turn check-raise was the delayed slow play for the trip 10s that he hit on the flop. He's checked to you every street, and you've bet every time. No reason to expect any different behavior this time. You'll value bet, he'll jam, and you'll be forced to call and embrace the variance as his quads smash your full house and his heater continues unabated.

Disclaimer: I'm a terrible poker player, but I feel like DrStrange foreshadowed this as a possible outcome, and it would sure make the hand memorable.

 

[Phantom]

Any visible tells that indicate he hit quad 10s?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Any visible tells that indicate he hit quad 10s?

We are folding here about 0.01 percent of the time. Be looking for ways to get value, not ways to reduce risk

 

[Phantom]

We are folding here about 0.01 percent of the time. Be looking for ways to get value, not ways to reduce risk

No probs, Considering reduction of further loss I guess . just considering that some mentioned a possible under-set, and pocket 10s could fit the bill . I don't know all the math, and you're probably right, I would be looking for monsters under the bed at this level I would think if he gave some indication of the strength of his hand via a visible tell, on top of the info we know about him, then it could be a monster lay-down as well. In the "maybe we have the best hand, maybe not, and have won enough so check" camp, which is boring I guess .

 

[Anthony Martino]

I think its a situation where we win more often against his range than we lose, so betting is correct and checking is a mistake

 

[HanShot1st]

Please be mindful of the villain read:
Hyper loose, passive, tricky trappy. Almost always slow plays one street. Bets draws or medium strength hands but goes for a tricky passive line with bigger hands - modest bets mostly, rarely big semi bluffs. A huge station in many ways - not for giant bets but smaller bets get called down very light. The Cougar is playing on his opening $60 buy in and is tearing through the field. Lucky him!

Consider what you know, vs what you have seen:
Ok your villain read is almost verbatim the situation you have described.
Slow play one street - called your bet on the flop, check-raised your turn bet.
rarely big semi bluffs - the villain is representing the hand you fear. Does he really have it?
Cougar is playing from original $60 and tearing through the field - Cougar is running hot
Villain is "tricky-trappy" - is it outside of the villain's range to try and steal this pot with a bluff? He's obviously got you covered, and he's playing with other people's money at this point.

Doyle Brunson would be cautious with a straight on the board, but also admits that he very well would be trying to get all his opponent's money in with his top set. You might be in the situation where you are stuck paying off the Cougar.

I think i manage the pot size and give myself a chance at more information. Call,odds are that the cougar is going to put you all in on the River anyway. Perhaps that isn't aggressive enough, But I think i would need to be in the situation to decide differently.

Curious to see how this one turned out.

 

[bergs]

Jam.

 

[DrStrange]

fortunately (?) Hero is no longer fearful of losing to a straight or a flush. Maybe he is scared of quads. Maybe Hero is greedy rather than fearful?

 

[H|Q]

Bet whatever he'd call with two pair.

 

[doakwolf]

I'm with HQ.

Bet $155, probably get raised all-in, hope for information, make the call regardless.

$620 is nothing to turn your nose at if they're holding two pair.

I think they're raising you all-in though but then you can hope for further info before you decide if your final $250 is heading inward.

 

[Trihonda]

Maybe he had AT?

 

[HanShot1st]

Curious to see how this one turned out.

*** it IS easy! ***

Hero calls $75. Heads up, $310 in the pot. Effective stacks are $400. Hero holds for Aces full.

River is < >

Villain checks.

Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting how much?

Didn't see the river card post... extract maximum value, but how much will they call? If you shove will they fold? bet at least half the pot, my first thought was to shove at this point, but you risk scaring away many hands he might pay you off with. Bet $200, if he raises, you have him. Don't fear quads. Take him down.

 

[ChaosRock]

Playing for stacks here for sure... A shove might accomplish that as long as he has JJ, AT, JT but probably nothing else (other than TT)... Villain might fold T2, 22, KQ and Ax to a shove though as he would any missed draws of course... Maybe a $125 bet can get some of those hands to call down and at the same time induce a shove by his best made hands and from a couple of bluff combos... Tempting to shove though... He shows TT? nh, fresh stack in big chips...

 

[DrStrange]

*** ICK! ***

Hero bets $175. Villain insta-jams all in for $225 more ($400 total considering Hero is covered by villain.). Pot is $310 + $175 + $400 = $885.

Anyone in the fold camp? $225 to win $1,105 looks hard to resist. For what it is worth, villain is grinning ear to ear.

DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

He has AT... or JT?

I'm calling. Not ever folding Aces Full, when my hand is likely disquised somewhat... He's grinning because he likely hit a boat and thinks he's good. If he has exactly TT, then gg, reload.

You have 4-1 odds to win holding the second nutz (and a strong second nutz).

 

[MegaTon44]

*** ICK! ***

Hero bets $175. Villain insta-jams all in for $225 more ($400 total considering Hero is covered by villain.). Pot is $310 + $175 + $400 = $885.

Anyone in the fold camp? $225 to win $1,105 looks hard to resist. For what it is worth, villain is grinning ear to ear.

DrStrange