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At The Wynn $1/$3 - KJs (3 Viewers)

Sucks being out of position here, but I plan on calling here to see if I can pick up any equity. Let’s hope the :qs: comes off on the turn and we can continue with the hand.

It the turn is a complete blank I most likely check fold if he bets big (over 1/2 pot) if you think he is more OMC than not.

The biggest problem with this hand is that you are missing 2 cards! This should be a PLO hand where you have top set and either a flush or straight draw and can play for stacks! :D
 
ChaosRock said:
Yep! A grumpy nit. But as I said, not enough time to form a good image of Villain. The good thing about putting someone in a "box" is that it makes decisions easier, however, those decisions are based on the read and not so much on ranges, if you know what I mean. Point being: if I tell he IS INDEED an OMC, it's always a fold.

I rather think about the hand readless and then maybe adjust slightly based on an eventual read. My preference anyways.
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Makes sense.

I'm definitely not re-raising him here. Fold or Call. Since I already said fold I have to stick to my guns lol
 
There are a lot of hands where villain is semi-bluffing, yet holds something close to 50% equity. Obviously there are hands in the villain's range which are somewhat ahead of Hero and a few that crush Hero. Hero's brief table read is Tagish, (most definitively not LAG though).

Let me caution people from restricting TT or JJ from villain's range. It is entirely plausible that villain could be Tagish and elect to flat Hero's raise planning on a set mining strategy + a position play to make the pair valuable. It is not obvious that villain is best served with a 3-bet / fold line or a 3-bet / take down the pot plan.

There aren't very many "safe" turn cards. Cards bigger than a six, not pairing the board, make a straight. Diamonds complete the flush. So 15 tiny non flushing cards plus 2 tens and 2 jacks. A king is a mixed blessing . . . So 19+ outs for a "safe card" that presume villain is semi bluffing - as noted before, hero is drawing at 2% or less vs a set.

What is Hero's plan if he flats the flop raise? Out of position, Hero is acting first. In rough terms, hero is at the cusp of pot commitment. The pot is ~$200 and Hero has $600 left behind. One step further and Hero is going to find it hard to fold. So in some ways, Hero's plan is really call/fold if villain bets again unless he wants to play for stacks with his modest hand.

Hero will be well served to fold. Sure, villain could be making a move but a lot of those "move" hands are roughly coin flips. I see little reason to think villain is making a crazy bluff. not that he can't be bluffing just that we have no reason to think so.

Sometimes villains out play Heroes. Maybe this is one of those times. Other times, Villains are trying to land a whopper. Me? I worry about being the fish fillet when villain is looking to land said whopper. The RIO risk are huge relative to the forty bucks hero has invested.

I surrender, villain has the upper hand but he isn't getting the rest of Hero's stack if I am in charge -=- DrStrange
 
I'm throwing this in the muck at 1/3 to the raise. Even if this a semi bluff your going to be dealing with a ton of pressure out of position with a deep stack with one pair. No thanks.

I had an almost identical situation happen this weekend with KQ on a K83 two heart flop. I left it go to the raise and got shown K8s.

Save your chips for a better spot.
 
I think I'm calling, if he has a set is he really going to raise you out of the pot at this point? If I were him and had a set I'm waiting for a safe turn card eg no diamond, no str8 card, then bombs away. It seems more like a big draw eg KQ, KQ diamonds, A10 diamonds, when he raises he can win the pot right there or freeze the action and check behind on the turn if he misses. Two cards 2 his draw for 57 bucks when your both deep.
 
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These type of hand really show the difference of a 100bb game and deep stack Poker. If you were 100bb deep you would get stacks in and take your chances.

If you knew for sure he is an OMC you could call and jam when a diamond comes off too. They always see the monster under the bed and assume you have to have to bet into them now.

I have done it many times and watched them fold AA or KK in disgust.
 
Easy fold after the raise. We got our "information" now it's time to go. We wasted 12+ BB on a mediocre hand out of position, could have been better, but could have been worse. If we stay at the table, let's hope our opponents are paying attention, so the next time we do this from this position we can hit them in the face with the nuts.
 
I dont think an overpair is really any different than top pair in this spot. If he is raising with AJ then you got bluffed and that's ok, i just think most of his range is 2 pair, sets, and combo draws all of which you dont need to be involved with out of position. Going to war with a single pair on a board like this doesn't seem to be a long term +EV play.
 
derekdd23 said:
I dont think an overpair is really any different than top pair in this spot. If he is raising with AJ then you got bluffed and that's ok, i just think most of his range is 2 pair, sets, and combo draws all of which you dont need to be involved with out of position. Going to war with a single pair on a board like this doesn't seem to be a long term +EV play.
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Yep! I totally agree, the only difference is when he is raising with AJ (assuming he might). That's why I wanted to know if you're also folding an overpair, which it seems you would?
 
ChaosRock said:
Yep! I totally agree, the only difference is when he is raising with AJ (assuming he might). That's why I wanted to know if you're also folding an overpair, which it seems you would?
Click to expand...

Yes I would be folding my over pairs, in fact you have 1 less out vs 2 pair than with just top pair.
 
In a way I like an overpair even less here, because I have far fewer ways to improve. One pair, deep stack, out of position, yuck.
 
derekdd23 said:
Yes I would be folding my over pairs, in fact you have 1 less out vs 2 pair than with just top pair.
Click to expand...
FDLmold said:
In a way I like an overpair even less here, because I have far fewer ways to improve. One pair, deep stack, out of position, yuck.
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Sure! Not taking sides, just want to understand you guys' range. In other words, my question was not argumentative, I just wanted clarification. I'll post my personal perspective later on.
 
I like the line thus far. The open pre seems standard, the ~2/3 pot bet on the flop seems solid given the texture of the board. In a $1/3 game, I don't think a lot of people are making a 3.2x raise on the flop with air. People tend to like to turn their hands into bluff hands on the river. I think I let it go after that raise.
 
I don’t like this hand. Out of position. Facing aggression from a player who we feel is not a LAG and already facing a flop bet.

Worse yet as the better Dr. has pointed out, what cards do you want to see on the turn???

Finally, when the turn comes, you are still out of position, looking lost if you check.

That still leaves a river far, far away.

I’m thinking you got a leak in your game friend. Fold pre or play a smaller pot with a smaller preflop raise.
 
bivey said:
I don’t like this hand. Out of position. Facing aggression from a player who we feel is not a LAG and already facing a flop bet.

Worse yet as the better Dr. has pointed out, what cards do you want to see on the turn???

Finally, when the turn comes, you are still out of position, looking lost if you check.

That still leaves a river far, far away.

I’m thinking you got a leak in your game friend. Fold pre or play a smaller pot with a smaller preflop raise.
Click to expand...

It's not fair dude!!! You were there with me, just one table over... You know the hand!!! LOL!!!!

I wish I had "a" leak in my game... I have plenty!! :p:p:p:p:p
 
ChaosRock said:
Fair enough guys. So what is your range for bet/calling here? You fold an overpair?
Click to expand...

If I'm playing well AA is going into the muck. Most days though, I'm going to probably call with the overpair hate myself when he bets the turn and I don't improve.

I'm thinking most of the time he has 66/TT/JJ/JT here or a combo draw QTdd/KJdd/AJdd/9Tdd. That T being a spade and the fact you don't hold a diamond weights it a bit more towards this, vs. a flopped set or JT. Even vs. those hands your crushed. I would disagree with the others though as I think you pick up additional outs with the over pair due to the fact that JT is a combo he could have and any 6 gives you a better 2 pair and also makes it less likely then he would have a set of 6s.

Either way I hate how this hand is shaping up.
 
Bluffs are almost (because never say never) non-existent at $1/2 or $1/3 NL on the flop, ESPECIALLY from older looking players. Look at the things that have to go right for you to feel good about your situation:

1. You have to call, check the turn (assuming your equity doesn't improve) and hope he checks back.

2. If you do improve, you can still be behind a flopped set or top two pair, with bottom set being the most likely holding. Your only good turn is a king, a spade, and to a lesser extent, a queen.

3. If the villain makes a good sized bet on the turn and your equity has improved, you're still a pretty big dog to a set. You may not even get paid off if the backdoor flush comes in for you.
 
Payback said:
If I'm playing well AA is going into the muck. Most days though, I'm going to probably call with the overpair hate myself when he bets the turn and I don't improve.

I'm thinking most of the time he has 66/TT/JJ/JT here or a combo draw QTdd/KJdd/AJdd/9Tdd. That T being a spade and the fact you don't hold a diamond weights it a bit more towards this, vs. a flopped set or JT. Even vs. those hands your crushed. I would disagree with the others though as I think you pick up additional outs with the over pair due to the fact that JT is a combo he could have and any 6 gives you a better 2 pair and also makes it less likely then he would have a set of 6s.

Either way I hate how this hand is shaping up.
Click to expand...

So you don't think he could be raising with something like :ad::5d:?

Again, not an argumentative questing Bill, just want to pick your brain...
 
ChaosRock said:
So you don't think he could be raising with something like :ad::5d:?

Again, not an argumentative questing Bill, just want to pick your brain...
Click to expand...

Could he? Possible, but at 1/3 most players are calling with their draws and raising their made hands + monster draw. At 2/5 this becomes a different story. Which is why I would say he has a made hand (2 pair or set) or a pair plus flush draw. Most 1/3 know enough to understand that pair +straight +flush draw =raise. If he shows something else, then remember it and use it later.
 

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