OP
OP
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At The Wynn $1/$3 - KJs (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ChaosRock
- Start date
OP
OP
I'm leaving to play a league tourney. I'll engage back when I'm back.
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ilovegravy
Pair
derekdd23
Flush
Dislike
Forty4
Full House
So you don't think he could be raising with something like?
Again, not an argumentative questing Bill, just want to pick your brain...
I would make a play like this with
x
In position. Because you should check the turn allowing me to see two cards.
bivey
Full House
A hand like 
definitely gets this sort of treatment.
definitely gets this sort of treatment.
I would make a play like this with
A hand like
and 
also in that category, I'd think.
Forty4
Full House
Guess we have just listed close to a dozen hands you don’t want to see. Haven’t really counted or even read every post.
OP
OP
Okay, I'm back. Min cash the tourney. Not too bad.
Great points made!
To Dave's question, it's really hard to put Hero on a tight range. From mid position I'm opening kinda wide and c-betting a high percentage. Not sure if he knows that, but probably. I have all the sets on my range, all over pairs, 44+, AXs, ATo+, KTs+, KQo, 98s, etc. Not c-betting all those of course but a good percentage. I'll check a good A, small pair and some combos with no equity. So He should put me on over-pairs, top pair, JT, sets, open enders and A and K flushes (not good As).
From the comments, it seems the majority thinks it's a fold, and out would be a over pair fold also. Some think it's a call. I personally think it's close. There is no question I can beat ZERO value raises from Villain. So it's a matter of how many semi-bluffs he has on his raise rage. I think he has quite a few personally. I think he raises a bunch of his AXd, and open enders. His value range though is kinda narrow. We're talking sets and JT, and I block some of his top sets.
I think if I had more time, it is probably a fold here. KJs might be where the line is drawn. I might fold some QQs, but I don't think I fold KK and AA here. If I was to fold over pair every time I get raised on the flop I would go broke I think.
My view of a Wynn $1/$3 and $2/$5, the stakes I play the most, is a bit different than what I read here. I think most players are capable of raising there with draws. Both live and online poker have gotten better IMO.
I ran some numbers and assuming Villain is raising some of his draws, as well as his value combos, we are not that far off in equity. Realizing that equity out of position is a different story.
Anyways, although I think I would fold my hand if I was in the same spot again, I ended up calling. To Docs point, my plan was to call and try to improve with a spade, K, J, Q. I also thought there was a chance Villain would check back some of his draws on a blank card.
I hold
mid position. Raise to $15, Villain calls on the button. Flop comes 
. I lead for $23, Villain makes it $80 and Hero calls. Pot $194. Turn is sort of favorable 
, making it . $600-ish effective behind.
Action to Hero? Anyone thinks Hero should lead?
* I'm tired writing this post so apologies for any possible mistakes.
Great points made!
To Dave's question, it's really hard to put Hero on a tight range. From mid position I'm opening kinda wide and c-betting a high percentage. Not sure if he knows that, but probably. I have all the sets on my range, all over pairs, 44+, AXs, ATo+, KTs+, KQo, 98s, etc. Not c-betting all those of course but a good percentage. I'll check a good A, small pair and some combos with no equity. So He should put me on over-pairs, top pair, JT, sets, open enders and A and K flushes (not good As).
From the comments, it seems the majority thinks it's a fold, and out would be a over pair fold also. Some think it's a call. I personally think it's close. There is no question I can beat ZERO value raises from Villain. So it's a matter of how many semi-bluffs he has on his raise rage. I think he has quite a few personally. I think he raises a bunch of his AXd, and open enders. His value range though is kinda narrow. We're talking sets and JT, and I block some of his top sets.
I think if I had more time, it is probably a fold here. KJs might be where the line is drawn. I might fold some QQs, but I don't think I fold KK and AA here. If I was to fold over pair every time I get raised on the flop I would go broke I think.
My view of a Wynn $1/$3 and $2/$5, the stakes I play the most, is a bit different than what I read here. I think most players are capable of raising there with draws. Both live and online poker have gotten better IMO.
I ran some numbers and assuming Villain is raising some of his draws, as well as his value combos, we are not that far off in equity. Realizing that equity out of position is a different story.
Anyways, although I think I would fold my hand if I was in the same spot again, I ended up calling. To Docs point, my plan was to call and try to improve with a spade, K, J, Q. I also thought there was a chance Villain would check back some of his draws on a blank card.
I hold
mid position. Raise to $15, Villain calls on the button. Flop comes . I lead for $23, Villain makes it $80 and Hero calls. Pot $194. Turn is sort of favorable , making it . $600-ish effective behind.Action to Hero? Anyone thinks Hero should lead?
* I'm tired writing this post so apologies for any possible mistakes.
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bivey
Full House
I wouldn’t lead OOP. The position thing just keeps tearing its ugly head. If he has you crushed with set or Jx two pair, you are going to be drawing to flush only and need to see a bet of that gives you calling odds of ~4:1 which isn’t possible with your stack. If you are ahead, he still controls the action and can set the odds as he sees fit, including taking the free card himself if he is behind.
What is your fold equity if you bet? What amount does this guy fold to given your assessment that he has 50% equity? You beat a pure flop bluff and that’s about it.
I too am tired, so I haven’t expounded or filled in the gaps, sorry.
This would be the point In the night I realize I’m dead money and go to be. Sadly it’s 8:48pm
What is your fold equity if you bet? What amount does this guy fold to given your assessment that he has 50% equity? You beat a pure flop bluff and that’s about it.
I too am tired, so I haven’t expounded or filled in the gaps, sorry.
This would be the point In the night I realize I’m dead money and go to be. Sadly it’s 8:48pm
Forty4
Full House
Great card for us but still think I check. Evaluate what he does next. If we bet we are effectively making it for stacks as lead will be at a minimum $75, but should be closer to $100-120. Only to have him raise us doesn’t sound like we are utilizing chips in the ideal situation.
Easy check at this point. Calling up to $100 here. We could be ahead + K outs might be good + flush cards that don't pair should always be good.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
This is one of the problems that should have been worked out before paying for the turn card.
Hero picks up a nice chunk of equity - perhaps as much as 20% and no less than 18% - on top of what ever equity Hero started with. If villain was drawing, he lost half of his equity. What is Hero to do?
This is a must bet situation vs all drawing hands and an error to bet vs two pair + sets.
There are seven sets combos possible. Six more JT combos. Let's ignore all other two pairs as implausible. 13 value combinations for villain.
There are nine Ax flush draws, sixteen KQ, four Q9s (lets leave out Q9o) and similarly four 98s hands. 33 drawing hands (plausibly a few more like QT of diamonds or T9 of diamonds) A few are monster draws, most are weaker, none of the draws is better than Hero's top pair with one card to come.
Maybe hero can get villain to fold a bunch of his draws with a stiff bet - something like $250. Pot really isn't enough to seriously price the draws out given that Hero looks pot committed (and likely is) on a bad river. If Hero gets 30 folds plus 3 calls with monster draws plus 13 jams where hero has to call . . .
Hero wins 30 X ~$200 from the folds. (more if villain calls with a simple draw)
Hero loses $400 if villain jams and Hero misses the river lets say nine times and Hero binks and wins the whole thing three times for a $1,000
To make life easier I assume the monster draws have zero expected value. That is wrong, but I can live with that error. I am assuming Hero stacks off on a bad river.
+$6000 from fold equity
-$3,600 from the times Hero is behind
+$3,000 when luck is truly with hero.
Or $5,400/ 42 ----> +$135 ish expected value.
So I say Hero should bet big here and embrace the variance. He paid the price to draw for the runner-runner flush and now he should cash in on the equity. Let's note that hero can withstand some mistakes on ranging villain on so many draws. If villain's range is less draw heavy, Hero still has something like $50 to $75 equity for a stiff bet.
Check / fold seems like a weak line. It does leave open the chance villain checks behind, but it invites aggression and then Hero will often find a fold.
I could respect a check / jam line if Hero had a reason to think villain will not take the free card play. But Hero has no reason to think that. We are already somewhat out on a limb regarding villains raise flop line range. Let's just take the fold equity from the turn bet and go to the house.
I still vote fold on the flop, but now that Hero turned a lucky card he has the equity to push his luck some more.
Just one time, baby -=- DrStrange
PS I am using "at the table" math here. Simplifying guesses and assumptions to allow Hero to make a stab at the numbers at the table vs what we might do with a spread sheet + poker stove at home.
Hero picks up a nice chunk of equity - perhaps as much as 20% and no less than 18% - on top of what ever equity Hero started with. If villain was drawing, he lost half of his equity. What is Hero to do?
This is a must bet situation vs all drawing hands and an error to bet vs two pair + sets.
There are seven sets combos possible. Six more JT combos. Let's ignore all other two pairs as implausible. 13 value combinations for villain.
There are nine Ax flush draws, sixteen KQ, four Q9s (lets leave out Q9o) and similarly four 98s hands. 33 drawing hands (plausibly a few more like QT of diamonds or T9 of diamonds) A few are monster draws, most are weaker, none of the draws is better than Hero's top pair with one card to come.
Maybe hero can get villain to fold a bunch of his draws with a stiff bet - something like $250. Pot really isn't enough to seriously price the draws out given that Hero looks pot committed (and likely is) on a bad river. If Hero gets 30 folds plus 3 calls with monster draws plus 13 jams where hero has to call . . .
Hero wins 30 X ~$200 from the folds. (more if villain calls with a simple draw)
Hero loses $400 if villain jams and Hero misses the river lets say nine times and Hero binks and wins the whole thing three times for a $1,000
To make life easier I assume the monster draws have zero expected value. That is wrong, but I can live with that error. I am assuming Hero stacks off on a bad river.
+$6000 from fold equity
-$3,600 from the times Hero is behind
+$3,000 when luck is truly with hero.
Or $5,400/ 42 ----> +$135 ish expected value.
So I say Hero should bet big here and embrace the variance. He paid the price to draw for the runner-runner flush and now he should cash in on the equity. Let's note that hero can withstand some mistakes on ranging villain on so many draws. If villain's range is less draw heavy, Hero still has something like $50 to $75 equity for a stiff bet.
Check / fold seems like a weak line. It does leave open the chance villain checks behind, but it invites aggression and then Hero will often find a fold.
I could respect a check / jam line if Hero had a reason to think villain will not take the free card play. But Hero has no reason to think that. We are already somewhat out on a limb regarding villains raise flop line range. Let's just take the fold equity from the turn bet and go to the house.
I still vote fold on the flop, but now that Hero turned a lucky card he has the equity to push his luck some more.
Just one time, baby -=- DrStrange
PS I am using "at the table" math here. Simplifying guesses and assumptions to allow Hero to make a stab at the numbers at the table vs what we might do with a spread sheet + poker stove at home.
detroitdad
Royal Flush
I agree, it would be hard to fold aces or kings. If I truly think he had a set I'd have to seriously think about it. Saying that, I probably wouldn't fold.
As hand as played, with the flush draw, I'm check calling.
OP
OP
We were about 50% on the flop looking at his range vs. my hand. Looking from his perspective, things change since it's his hand vs. my range. So let's say he has something like
, to pick an extreme, his equity wouldn't be 50% vs. my who range. Range vs range on the flop, Hero should have all sets while Villain less so since he might 3-bet pre JJ and TT. Hero has all overpairs while Villain has none. Same amount of two pairs: 2 combos (JTs), and close to the same amount of open enders. Where Villain has the upper hard is the amount of flush draws I believe.
OP
OP
Very good Doc! Thank you.
I'm gonna go ahead and say that the reason I asked if anyone thinks Hero should lead is because one of our fellow members here, and a hell of a good player, like you guys, suggested I should have done that (spoiler: I didn't and I didn't even consider it at that time), meaning, lead the turn with a $140-ish. You are only the second person to recommend this line, although if I remember correctly, his line was lead/fold, but I could be wrong. Very interesting and it makes a whole lot of sense reading your post. Speaking of leaks, I tend to almost never donkbet (specially the flop). I find it hard to be balanced on that approach when I'm playing against good players. Definitely something I need to look into.
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I see only two options on the turn: check or shove, and shove seems to be the better choice.
Checking risks giving Villain a free card to hit his draws, and if we plan to check/call, may as well get the money in there now with some serious fold equity. If you just bet and plan on calling if you get raised, same principle -- jam it now. Villain gets only one decision (and doesn't get to force one on you), and it may be a pretty hard one for him to handle.
Checking risks giving Villain a free card to hit his draws, and if we plan to check/call, may as well get the money in there now with some serious fold equity. If you just bet and plan on calling if you get raised, same principle -- jam it now. Villain gets only one decision (and doesn't get to force one on you), and it may be a pretty hard one for him to handle.
Exactly my thoughts, although I'm advocating betting REALLY big (i.e., shove). I just don't see how Villain can justify calling. Would be interested if the good Doctor would apply his math-magic to this line.
OP
OP
Interesting...
Aren't we adverse selecting with the shove Dave? He's folding all his draws and calling with pretty much all his value hands?
OP
OP
OP
OP
*** ERRATA: made a mistake on my effective stacks on the turn! Effective stacks behind are $600 and NOT $400. As stated in the OP, I started the hand with $700 and Villain had me cover. I fixed the error on post #73. I knew I was tired last night... 
Does that change your possible shove option @BGinGA ?
Apologies @DrStrange , that changes your numbers a bit.
Does that change your possible shove option @BGinGA ?
Apologies @DrStrange , that changes your numbers a bit.
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Forty4
Full House
I thought that was off but will stand by my statement that if you lead you’re getting your stack in. As noted the bet should be between $150-200. Leaving you with $400-450 and if he even min raises you have to shove it in with the bet line. A shove might be excessive but just saves the back and forth inevitable, but does also apply max pressure.
ilovegravy
Pair
As played, I check the turn and hope to see a cheap/free river. I am an absolute wuss and the prospect of villain coming over the top here while I am essentially pot committed has me shook. That said, reading @DrStrange and @BGinGA wax poetic about leading/jamming has me thinking it's the right play. True that you're only getting called by better hands, but I think we push villain off a lot of hands and we have that glorious draw to the backdoor flush. Bring on the variance.
OP
OP
Forty4
Full House
I certainly don’t after Dr.’s write up. I originally was in the camp of check fold but have been slightly influenced. Still think there should be better spots to get your money in. It’s not like this is a tournament hand where time is against you.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
Yikes! Yes the change in stack sizes makes a difference. Bigger effective stacks leads to bigger RIO risks. I still think leading out is marginally better, but now it is a bet/fold line. The bet doesn't need to be so big, but I think close to pot is still required - just not an over bet.
I also can respect a check/call { small bet } or check/fold { big bet } line - - basically realizing the flop call was an error and it is time to quit digging the hole Hero is in ever deeper.
I also can respect a check/call { small bet } or check/fold { big bet } line - - basically realizing the flop call was an error and it is time to quit digging the hole Hero is in ever deeper.
Frogzilla
Straight Flush
Nice turn. Check raise all-in
bivey
Full House
And if villain goes all in on checked turn?
ChipEnvy
Full House
I actually kinda like this move. I personally don't have the balls to pull it off, but I like it.
That kinda minimizes the fold equity.
So in that case you have to fold.
ilovegravy
Pair
A check raise all in is definitely interesting. It likely pot commits the villain which seems appealing since he has roughly three times more combinations of drawing hands than he does combinations of value hands. I also don't think I have the balls to pull it off, but it is an intriguing idea.
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