deep online home game $1/1 Hold'em (3 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

I did say I held a slight sway towards leaning fold vs call preflop. Most of Hero's "good" flops are going to be non-nut flush draws, so-so two pairs, combo pair plus draws and straight draws. Perfectly fine playing shallow or medium deep, but more troublesome playing with a pile of chips at risk. Bad position matters more when the table is deep.

The flop is pretty wet in my book. The flush draw, plus three to a straight - at least there is a gap in there. If there are villains drawing, they know generally where they stand. And they know in large part a) where they stand if/when the draw hits & b) they know what bricks are.

Let's say Hero started with 200bb, $200. This is a good enough flop to feel pot committed or close to it. Check flop, planning to check/raise all in most of the times. The villain(s) who continue will have outs but hero is getting the best of it.

But hero is playing more like 900bb. He can't get the hand wrapped up with conventional bets until the river, if then. And Hero sees so many cards as scare cards. - eights and sevens are divine. there are six off-suit twos or threes as "total" bricks. Off-suit kings and queens are likely safe, rarely making a set for villain but also occasionally making top pair. Any ace risks making a better two pair and/or is a scare card for villain's hoped for over-pair. Twelve safe cards plus three more "ok" cards out of 47 cards yet to be seen. One in three that Hero will know what to do on the turn.

So yes, I have my doubts about flopping a wet two pair in this hand. And was headed out the door facing the head villain plus other contenders. As it turned out, Hero would have been well served by my post flop line. Stiff check raise on the flop followed by an overbet jam following a "safe" turn. Hero gets his money in good and then trusts to the Poker Gods to pay off his good plan in the long run.

Why would I even have a question about call vs fold pre-flop? It is the huge implied odds. Hero is risking one percent of his stack and praying for a super lucky flop. This flop did work out to be super lucky but most of the times hero is going to lose his preflop call. Is it worth 90 to 1 to take a flier? I thought it was close and still do, and still could support a preflop fold as barely better than a preflop call.

DrStrange

 

[Steve Birrer]

To paraphrase Dr. Strange. "The flop did work out to be super luck.y" And guess what? It still lead to lots of questions. There are just so few flops that are very good for Hero than don't also connect with other better hands. Yes they may be draws but no thanks.

 

[JustinInMN]

We have better hands here than 78 by the river as well. We can have all the flopped sets, 9T, Axh, and even 64s or 69s and played it this way given the board and all the folds on the flop. We aren't even at the top of our range here.

I do think this is the best argument to call, but I really hope as hero we aren't calling 10x raises pre with 96s and 64s. Looking at it this way, 9T might be where I draw the line to call here.

Why would I even have a question about call vs fold pre-flop? It is the huge implied odds. Hero is risking one percent of his stack and praying for a super lucky flop. This flop did work out to be super lucky but most of the times hero is going to lose his preflop call. Is it worth 90 to 1 to take a flier?

The implied odds are probably the one good reason to consider this. 90 to 1 looks good, but really, what kind of flop are we as hero looking for where we will get a villian to ship 900 bigs in over the course of the hand with a second best holding? Straight against an overpair might be the most likely scenario I could come up with. It seems difficult to accomplish playing for stacks with hands any weaker than that. If we flop trips, even overpairs are going to slow down in a six handed pot. We could flop two pair with an ace on board and hope villian has Ax and hope we hold up. Or hope to flop two pair against an overpair and again, hope to hold.

I am trying to make the point that part of starting hand strategy is understand the likelyhood of the flops needed to justify the price. If too many flops seem foldable, you really need to look at the actual value of the continuable flops and evaluate their scarcity.

In fairness, the villain read provided may mean it's easier to get this particular villain to play for stacks than I am making it sound, but how much easier?

 

[Legend5555]

Hero was in BB closing that action. So I don't think 64s and 69s are completely out of the question. Though I agree it's probably too loose in general.

 

[JustinInMN]

Hero was in BB closing that action. So I don't think 64s and 69s are completely out of the question. Though I agree it's probably too loose in general.

For a 3x sizing, I say call for sure. For 10x, just yikes.

 

[Legend5555]

For a 3x sizing, I say call for sure. For 10x, just yikes.

They are really deep though. Imagine this was 1/3 with the same action. I don't think it's ludicrous for someone to defend 64s. Looking at this as a 10x raise is deceptive because of the stack sizes. Sometimes the blind size is somewhat meaningless in terms of open sizes. Obviously it shouldn't be in theory, but in practice it is.

 

[Steve Birrer]

A 10X raise is a 10X raise preflop regardless of stack sizes.

 

[Legend5555]

A 10X raise is a 10X raise preflop regardless of stack sizes.

How much live deep casino poker have you played? Because this sort of thing isn't that uncommon. 5x-7x first in raises are fairly common at 1/2 and 1/3.

In a GTO sense, you shouldn't play much of anything against a 10x open. But in reality, if everyone is like 900bb deep and all opening to 10x, and you have an edge on them, then you can certainly play as if the blinds were "bigger" and still be more profitable than just nitting up to every 10x raise. You need to take all the factors into consideration and not just say, "10x raise, fold all but top 4%."

 

[Rhodeman77]

$10 open was more of an anomaly. Most people had been opening for $5-6. Cavemen may have been using his own image as a lag knowing he will get action and upsized his open bigger than normal.

 

[Steve Birrer]

How much live deep casino poker have you played? Because this sort of thing isn't that uncommon. 5x-7x first in raises are fairly common at 1/2 and 1/3.

In a GTO sense, you shouldn't play much of anything against a 10x open. But in reality, if everyone is like 900bb deep and all opening to 10x, and you have an edge on them, then you can certainly play as if the blinds were "bigger" and still be more profitable than just nitting up to every 10x raise. You need to take all the factors into consideration and not just say, "10x raise, fold all but top 4%."

Don't disagree. Except that in this particular situation it was opened 10X and there were already 3 callers.