Do you raise the river? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

Fast-fold 6-max anonymous 25NL zone at Ignition. No HUDs no reads.

Ignition Hand #4070638698 Zone Poker ID#1692 HOLDEMZonePoker No Limit [MVS] - 2021-02-08 21:39:30 UTC
Table Info: Version: 1, Type: MVS, Stakes: $0.10-$0.25, Table: 009C0E50-0
Seat 1: UTG+2 ($53.59 in chips)
Seat 2: Dealer ($29.61 in chips)
Seat 3: Small Blind ($64.96 in chips)
Seat 4: Big Blind ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG [ME] ($52.49 in chips)
Seat 6: UTG+1 ($72.90 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
UTG [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [As Ah]

UTG [ME] : Raises $0.75 to $0.75
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Seat stand
UTG+2 : Table leave user
UTG+2 : Folds
Dealer : Raises $2.25 to $2.25
Small Blind : Folds
Big Blind : Folds
UTG [ME] : Raises $6.85 to $7.60
Dealer : Calls $5.35
Pot is $15.55

*** FLOP *** [9d Kh Ac]: I find checking nutted hands on this site makes more money than betting - often perceived weakness is attacked even with air
UTG [ME] : Checks
Dealer : Checks

*** TURN *** [9d Kh Ac] [Kd]: Now we improve to top boat but lose to KK which is in V's 4 bet calling range; we check again to get a bet
UTG [ME] : Checks
Dealer : Checks

*** RIVER *** [9d Kh Ac Kd] [2c]: River is a blank and V finally fires - do you raise or call?
UTG [ME] : Checks
Dealer : Bets $11.09 (or 3/4 pot)

 

[JustinInMN]

https://i.gifer.com/8NKW.gif

How is this even a conversation? You are losing to exactly one combo of KK that would have had to have been checked twice. Jam, if he has it, he earned it. If not, well you are not exactly making a good case for your thought that "I find checking nutted hands on this site makes more money than betting - often perceived weakness is attacked even with air" if you check this hand 3 times just to flat one river bet.

 

[mipevi]

If villain would call with KK and AK, you make money by getting it in. If he’d call with KK only, don’t raise. Easy game!

 

[JustinInMN]

If you jam the river, you can get called by an ace he played careful on the flop, you can get called by a king he checked for deception on the turn, but won't check in position on the river. Likely villain will fold to the jam most of the time with air, but the occasions he has these hands to payoff far outweigh the risk of running into KK.

If you think he can play KK this way, you probably also think he can play AK that way and he's twice as likely to have that given the remaining cards. So even if you think he is somehow magically folding anything that's not a full house, this jam is still mandatory. (You probably also get called by 9s full here.)

Given he only has 11 or so left after betting the river in a pot that will have about 50 in it, he's calling wider than full houses. Three Kings are usually going to call as well. You stand to collect from way more than enough villain holdings to justify the risk of running into the case hand.

 

[Santa123]

You want to call second nuts?? Come on.
Okay I am a loosing player...

There is one combination of KK but 2 combinations of AK. He could have 3 bet you light and called your 4 bet with KQ, 99s? He could have QQ, JJ, TT and is now thinking after you checking flop and turn you are not always raising for value and he should call you off from time to time.

I think there is some value in raising.

 

[Senzrock]

Not sure if this is you trolling but this is 100% always a shove.

I mentioned this on a previous strategy thread but it is especially obvious on this hand - if you do not feel comfortable shoving here with top boat (and yes, potentially going broke to a weirdly played, almost impossible KK for quads), then you should IMMEDIATELY drop down in stakes. I guarantee that you will be a losing player in this game if the above is a serious question. I am not saying this to be mean, but if you are tepid in these spots when you have MONSTER hands, you simply will not be playing anywhere close to optimally with middle of the road hands (which is what the vast majority of your hands will be in NLHE).

 

[JustinInMN]

then you should IMMEDIATELY drop down in stakes. I guarantee that you will be a losing player in this game if the above is a serious question. I am not saying this to be mean, but if you are tepid in these spots when you have MONSTER hands, you simply will not be playing anywhere close to optimally with middle of the road hands (which is what the vast majority of your hands will be in NLHE).

In fairness, given @boltonguy has been posting hands from this stake for several months now, I doubt it's a money-scared thing. (But if it somehow is a money scared thing in your personal analysis Bolt, heed Senz' advice, it's very important.)

I think it's more of a pride in avoiding the loss with a soul read sort of question. (But again, no such thing as soul reads in anonymous "zoom"-type games.)

But I think it's unanimous, too much upside in villains payoff holdings. It doesn't take much upside to justify the shove to overcome exactly one combo that spells defeat.

 

[Eriks]

Yes, I can see cards but your hand looks so much like a tarp. What are you trying to rep? QQ? Bet flop, bet turn, as played shove river

 

[ChipFinderSK]

Fold

 

[Rhodeman77]

Easy raise. If he has KK, good for him and reload.

As I started reading the OP and saw the flop and turn I was expecting the River to be a K as well. Then it would be a much more interesting discussion of calling, raising, or possibly even folding.

 

[grebe]

Your only goal here is to get all the money in. If you want to check flop for deception, I can get behind your logic, but at some point you need to bet if V is not going to take the lead. SOMETIMES, your opponent will bet for you. MOST times, you need to do it yourself. I bet small flop, bet turn, shove river. checking turn is a HUGE mistake after it goes check/check flop.

Sorry, but this hand just makes no sense.

 

[boltonguy]

@grebe PokerSnowie shows this line is GTO:

FLOP: 100% check
TURN: mixed 42% check, 58% bet 1/4 pot
RIVER: 100% check and 100% jam to raise

Just FYI. It makes sense in GTO. Just curious to see the feedback given how small V's range is with 3 combos (1 KK, 2 AK). We cant get better to fold but we can get worse to call with second boat and the odds of combos are in our favor 2:1.

 

[kmccormick100]

In my experience flop bets always get called later than bets on future streets, particularly raises later on. I can see trapping with top set, but this flop should hit your 4b range as well as his calling range.

Letting the turn get checked through is a travesty in my opinion, he either has nothing and is folding to aggression or he also thinks he’s trapping, I don’t think somebody is going to start bluffing the river on a board like this very often.

The river is a must jam, he has twice as many AK as AA as well as other suited kings, and two combos of 99 that he is also slow playing. If you’re afraid of the one combo of quads for 40bb more given this action it feels like you’re under-rolled for this game.

 

[jpietrella]

Easy raise. If he has KK, good for him and reload.

As I started reading the OP and saw the flop and turn I was expecting the River to be a K as well. Then it would be a much more interesting discussion of calling, raising, or possibly even folding.

Samesies.

Your goal at every point in this hand was to get as much money in the pot as possible.

 

[boltonguy]

 

[JustinInMN]

As I started reading the OP and saw the flop and turn I was expecting the River to be a K as well. Then it would be a much more interesting discussion of calling, raising, or possibly even folding.

That's true, if villain can have all 4 possible combos of KQ plus the case AK, and villain probably would never lead with a counterfitted 99, that's a lot more to overcome to justify the shove. All action being equal, to shove would be to hove villain is super sticky with whatever other Ax he can 3 bet pre and check twice. That's a much shorter list, but a good point to bring up to illustrate the essence of the river decision.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Checking the flop is fine. Should have bet the turn. Not even sure how shoving is a question on the river.

Man, GTO software is going to ruin Hold'em if it hasn't already.

 

[Legend5555]

Yes you jam. Villain can likely have:

99: 3 combos
AK: 2 combos
KQs: 2 combos
KK: 1 combo

And maybe some QQ looking for thin value. But I'll discount that just to show that even on the tightest side, AK and KK there are 2 combos you beat that will call and 1 that wins. So you have to raise. And he can still possibly have 99, KQs, or sometimes QQ.

 

[JustinInMN]

Just curious to see the feedback given how small V's range is with 3 combos (1 KK, 2 AK).

You don't think Villain's range would include KQ or 99. It's a six handed game, I would expect an average button 3-bet range to be at least this wide. Maybe even KJs.

We cant get better to fold but we can get worse to call with second boat and the odds of combos are in our favor 2:1.

This is the sole reason the shove is correct. And it's has to be even better than 2:1 imo. You also have to factor in villain's pot odds of getting 4-1. He is probably finding bluff catching calls with KQ and maybe more.

 

[grebe]

So what is your target here?
AK. KK: All the money is going in....doesnt matter how you play it.
AQ-AT: V is probably calling down reasonable bets, but unlikely to bet out himself. Betting seems +ev
TT-QQ: These are your target hands for checking to induce value bets...or hoping they improve to the river.
Other: who knows? Most hands not containing a K (KQs maybe) are done with this hand....maybe they put in a bluff.

So. What's your target?

 

[CraigT78]

Easy jam unless you're playing with a guy named sucko. Then it's a snap fold.

 

[shorticus]

I will say that to this point, you’ve allowed villain to play his hand perfectly. He’s had to make no decisions. I can get behind the flop check, but turn check is a mistake.

 

[shorticus]

Easy jam unless you're playing with a guy named sucko. Then it's a snap fold.

Sicko gets it in pre against me and his cards magically change to the best hand as he rolls them over

 

[CraigT78]

Sicko gets it in pre against me and his cards magically change to the best hand as he rolls them over

He's got the codes!!

 

[jpietrella]

He's got the codes!!