What would you do? Fold AKo? (1 Viewer)

[JustinInMN]

Having seen the spoiler.

Spoiler: Spoiler Response

villain is "lucky" that hero had a hand to call with. Otherwise she would have made the minimum with her holding. I don't see this as a solid play at all going all in for 2x pot with the 2nd best possible hand. She will almost never get value, the fact that AK may be foldable is an indictment of her play, there is next to nothing she will get value from other than 66 and AK, AQ. I think AJ becomes very foldable at that sizing.

So I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not this is a sizing tell. But if she's observant enough to notice a high fold frequency, get ready to get your brains bluffed out if you start folding AK as a routine.

That said, if you had made the half-pot bet and she still went over it, then I think it becomes a little easier to CONSIDER folding AK if you don't think she will exploit an overfold.

It's a lot of metagame cat and mouse here. Even if this hand didn't go your way, there's a lot to consider in the future here. Other than checking the flop, I think your reasoning was pretty sound and I would likely have called as well.

 

[buffalojim]

I probably go broke every time in this situation.

 

[JustinInMN]

I had the same thoughts when thinking how else I could have played it better.

this play is definitely not my usual. (normally quick C-bet here)
Was in fact trying something I had read in a book the day before.
Typical case of right intentions, wrong execution

Yeah the time to use this play is if you have called a 3 bet out of position in a hand where the late position player is likely to c-bet. (or if you had limped early and a late position player raised-pre.) If villain had 3-bet her holding pre, and hero deciding to flat, I would 100% be about going for the check-shove on this flop.

The key is only go for this when there is a likely bettor in late position, and it's probably better to go for this in shorter-handed pots, 2 or 3 ways. The original post is not this case, however. Since no one showed aggression, hero risked giving a free card away in a big pot to four players on a fairly wet board. That's not a money-winning move.

 

[JMC9389]

I don't believe this if you're calling an 87bb shove into 4 people and a 36bb pot with top pair! (said with love, your analysis is always appreciated)

I see both sides but I think hero's being exploited hard; if we're doubling the normal open out of position with a hand we don't actually want to play people can smell that; we don't have AA or KK, we have JJ/AK/AQ/maaaybe AJ/TT? Ace high flop comes, a shove into four people screams strength if you know you're probably getting called by top pair. Especially if these people play cash games on a regular basis, they've seen hero call off top pair before, I doubt she's pulling something she thinks won't work. She's seen him bet more than normal and show the hand at some point, win or lose.

I keep coming back to 4 callers after betting 9BB and thinking there's got to be reads from the opponent's on hero. I know loose cash games are whatever, people just call, but even unconsciously they'll pick up habits like who bets bigger and who bets smaller. Especially if we're saying that villain is solid. We've seen her all-in with air like you said, sure, but what were stack sizes/positions/pre-flop/number of players? I know you're not going to remember all that every hand but this may be a different scenario. Even some of my crazier players won't open bluff shove when there's this many people in the hand.

If we're checking to set a trap, we have to call instantly and not think about it but I think we've agreed trapping is dangerous with this many players. I ascribe too much into reads/people because that's how I have fun playing poker so I'm definitely overvaluing that part of the analysis, but such is life.

I hear you. The 9 BB raise and getting four callers is a massive red flag. It's fine if 9 BB is the standard open for this particular game, but anything nonstandard especially out of position is going to raise some eyebrows and clue other players in at the table that there's weakness, which in itself is exploitable. Hero should consider standardizing their raise and bet sizes so as not to give away any sizing tells. Also would consider playing in another game, maybe higher stakes where the raises will be respected a bit more, but that's a whole other animal.

You're OOP and flop Top pair Top kicker. Villain jamming 80something big blinds into a 45 BB pot is very polarizing given they're in position and can be calling a preflop raise with lots of holdings. They can have just about anything here. Leading into 5 players is very strong with the objective to getting it heads up or taking it down right there.

I'll admit that it's closer than what my initial knee jerk reaction is, but if you're raising that much preflop and get that many callers, besides flopping trips or two pair, what exactly is Hero hoping for here? If you're going to fold to any kind of post flop aggression when you flop Top pair, just fold pre.

 

[JMC9389]

Having seen the spoiler.

Spoiler: Spoiler Response

villain is "lucky" that hero had a hand to call with. Otherwise she would have made the minimum with her holding. I don't see this as a solid play at all going all in for 2x pot with the 2nd best possible hand. She will almost never get value, the fact that AK may be foldable is an indictment of her play, there is next to nothing she will get value from other than 66 and AK, AQ. I think AJ becomes very foldable at that sizing.

So I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not this is a sizing tell. But if she's observant enough to notice a high fold frequency, get ready to get your brains bluffed out if you start folding AK as a routine.

That said, if you had made the half-pot bet and she still went over it, then I think it becomes a little easier to CONSIDER folding AK if you don't think she will exploit an overfold.

It's a lot of metagame cat and mouse here. Even if this hand didn't go your way, there's a lot to consider in the future here. Other than checking the flop, I think your reasoning was pretty sound and I would likely have called as well.

Thanks Justin, exactly the points that I was trying to make.

 

[iLogik]

I never fold… either I double up or go home …

 

[jpietrella]

I don't think I would have opened for 9BB but I'm fairly certain I fold this 5 handed after the flop. More certain in a tournament setting and fairly certain in cash.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I hear you. The 9 BB raise and getting four callers is a massive red flag. It's fine if 9 BB is the standard open for this particular game, but anything nonstandard especially out of position is going to raise some eyebrows and clue other players in at the table that there's weakness, which in itself is exploitable. Hero should consider standardizing their raise and bet sizes so as not to give away any sizing tells. Also would consider playing in another game, maybe higher stakes where the raises will be respected a bit more, but that's a whole other animal.

You're OOP and flop Top pair Top kicker. Villain jamming 80something big blinds into a 45 BB pot is very polarizing given they're in position and can be calling a preflop raise with lots of holdings. They can have just about anything here. Leading into 5 players is very strong with the objective to getting it heads up or taking it down right there.

I'll admit that it's closer than what my initial knee jerk reaction is, but if you're raising that much preflop and get that many callers, besides flopping trips or two pair, what exactly is Hero hoping for here? If you're going to fold to any kind of post flop aggression when you flop Top pair, just fold pre.

I believe that last sentence is a bad argument though; this isnt just any kind of aggression, this is the ultimate aggression, all-in wager. Id call or check raise an awful lot of bets but the multiway allin says more to me. The situation has dramatically changed soon as she shoves.

I get your point, Im probably projecting my game/games Ive played in onto this situation too much. Youre 100% right that its polarizing, now we're just haggling which direction lol. Hero was definitely hoping to not get 4 callers, and my suspicion is that they know that.

 

[doctorchips]

Jamming with air on a board where you (UTG) opened 9bb isn't likely to me, no matter how insane someone plays. If someone is calling you off when you're representing a pretty strong range pre-flop, you're probably getting beaten post if they jam on a board like this unless they're a total maniac.

It really depends on the player you're against here and how likely you think they are to jam with air in spots like this in my opinion. Jamming on a board with an A screams to me "I see that ace and I give no fucks".

 

[DrStrange]

Grunch . . .

We don't know a lot of useful information. Stack sizes, villain reads, Hero's table image. Hero had a lot more information than we have.

Hero bets 9bb from UTG. Seems a bit big, but maybe that's normal. I have played in games where that sizing wouldn't be surprising. Given Hero got 4 callers, The sizing can't be too big.

We go to the flop, five-handed, 46BB in the pot. The only stack size we know is 86bb - so the SPR for that villain is less than two. This hand gets a lot tougher to navigate is other players including Hero are deep stacked. If Hero has a similar sized stack, the hand is trivial.

Hero flops top pair / top kicker. The board is wet - flush draw plus some risk of straight draws, noteworthy that the ace on board is not part of the flush draw. Plenty of chances for villain to have Ax of hearts.

Hero decides to use a Fancy Play. A terrible idea in my opinion. Hero has an easy c-bet now. Almost half the deck will make a 3-flush or 3-straight on the board. Will not even talk about sets - but you might think someone had a pocket pair. Hero could get pocket fours out now, but if the turn is a four . . . .well not anymore. Hero should bet, perhaps even over-bet jam.

As played. Hero sets a trap. Someone seems like they fell in. I am expecting a lot of flush draws to make that play. A/small of hearts especially thinking better aces are likely to fold and if not, the top pair plus flush draw is almost even money vs a better ace. Hero showed weakness though, so villain's range is potentially quite wide. It sure would have helped to know some villain reads. LAG vs TaP vs LaP is all the difference in the world.

I can't see hero finding a fold here. It is more like a fist pump call to me. -=- DrStrange

 

[buffalojim]

Grunch . . .

We don't know a lot of useful information. Stack sizes, villain reads, Hero's table image. Hero had a lot more information than we have.

Hero bets 9bb from UTG. Seems a bit big, but maybe that's normal. I have played in games where that sizing wouldn't be surprising. Given Hero got 4 callers, The sizing can't be too big.

We go to the flop, five-handed, 46BB in the pot. The only stack size we know is 86bb - so the SPR for that villain is less than two. This hand gets a lot tougher to navigate is other players including Hero are deep stacked. If Hero has a similar sized stack, the hand is trivial.

Hero flops top pair / top kicker. The board is wet - flush draw plus some risk of straight draws, noteworthy that the ace on board is not part of the flush draw. Plenty of chances for villain to have Ax of hearts.

Hero decides to use a Fancy Play. A terrible idea in my opinion. Hero has an easy c-bet now. Almost half the deck will make a 3-flush or 3-straight on the board. Will not even talk about sets - but you might think someone had a pocket pair. Hero could get pocket fours out now, but if the turn is a four . . . .well not anymore. Hero should bet, perhaps even over-bet jam.

As played. Hero sets a trap. Someone seems like they fell in. I am expecting a lot of flush draws to make that play. A/small of hearts especially thinking better aces are likely to fold and if not, the top pair plus flush draw is almost even money vs a better ace. Hero showed weakness though, so villain's range is potentially quite wide. It sure would have helped to know some villain reads. LAG vs TaP vs LaP is all the difference in the world.

I can't see hero finding a fold here. It is more like a fist pump call to me. -=- DrStrange

This is pretty good and useful, thanks.

 

[upNdown]

None taken.

Some of them did reveal their hands
JJ
KQs
QQ

Was jus this one strange round with the weaker hands supposedly getting valued in as it went down to the button ( I think he had JJ), surprised no 3bet there.

Fair enough - I can see how people might flat with those hands. I think you have to 3-bet with the queens, but who know what characters are involved.

 

[BarbaraBooey143]

Preflop:
Hero : in UTG
Open-bet 9 BB

4 callers: UTG +1 , CO , HJ, BTN

Flop:


Hero: Checks for deception

• UTG +1 checks
• CO jams 86 BB all in
• Folds to Hero

Context on usual game
- Cash game
- Mix of tight and aggressive players
- Preflop raise of 5/6 BB usually gets one or two callers
- Couple of players are casual tournament participants
- Villain is a solid player who mixes up her plays, have seen her jam all-in with air in previous sessions


Call or fold?

Spoiler: CO's hand

Before making the call, I rationalized that I only lose to 2 specific hands, 99 /
Mayyybeee, I can make a case for , although unlikely cos of bigger sized preflop bet.
I disregarded AA cos no 3bet preflop

Thinking that my trap worked and I'm up against AQ combos (maybe AK), Hero calls.
CO shows

Will yall do the same? Please share your thoughts!

If you're going to "check for deception," you can't be a nit and fold the top of your range.

 

[JustinInMN]

I hear you. The 9 BB raise and getting four callers is a massive red flag. It's fine if 9 BB is the standard open for this particular game, but anything nonstandard especially out of position is going to raise some eyebrows and clue other players in at the table that there's weakness, which in itself is exploitable. Hero should consider standardizing their raise and bet sizes so as not to give away any sizing tells. Also would consider playing in another game, maybe higher stakes where the raises will be respected a bit more, but that's a whole other animal.

You're OOP and flop Top pair Top kicker. Villain jamming 80something big blinds into a 45 BB pot is very polarizing given they're in position and can be calling a preflop raise with lots of holdings. They can have just about anything here. Leading into 5 players is very strong with the objective to getting it heads up or taking it down right there.

I'll admit that it's closer than what my initial knee jerk reaction is, but if you're raising that much preflop and get that many callers, besides flopping trips or two pair, what exactly is Hero hoping for here? If you're going to fold to any kind of post flop aggression when you flop Top pair, just fold pre.

This point is very underrated. Does hero have a "sizing" tell and did villain pick up that often will mean Ax as opposed to premium pairs?

Regardless, I am a firm believer in standardizing raise sizes. I usually do about 3x + 1BB for every limper as my "standard" open.

This helps me keep my raising range fairly open and keeps opponents guessing in polarizing spots.

 

[Legend5555]

For the future, please include stack sizes, size of the blinds, how many players were dealt in. These are all very relevant.

 

[TAG_Cowboys]

Hero decides to use a Fancy Play. A terrible idea in my opinion. Hero has an easy c-bet now. Almost half the deck will make a 3-flush or 3-straight on the board. Will not even talk about sets - but you might think someone had a pocket pair. Hero could get pocket fours out now, but if the turn is a four . . . .well not anymore. Hero should bet, perhaps even over-bet jam.

As played. Hero sets a trap. Someone seems like they fell in. I am expecting a lot of flush draws to make that play. A/small of hearts especially thinking better aces are likely to fold and if not, the top pair plus flush draw is almost even money vs a better ace. Hero showed weakness though, so villain's range is potentially quite wide. It sure would have helped to know some villain reads. LAG vs TaP vs LaP is all the difference in the world.

I agree on the C-bet play. Not the best time to try the check-raise.
Ultimately, If i had made a 50% pot C-bet, villain reraises all-in, it wud have been a crying fold for me.

Spoiler: Decision

As you mentioned, I made the call, expecting mostly AX of hearts to be shown.
Didnt expect a set to be played that way. (I prolly wud have went for one more street of value before jam)

For the future, please include stack sizes, size of the blinds, how many players were dealt in. These are all very relevant.

9 handed, 0.5 / $1 cash game, everyone starts with 100BB
Hero: 110 BB -ish
Villain: 95BB
The rest of the table: 80 - 120BB


Stacks were relatively even, hence no one jammed preflop with their picture pockets

 

[Legend5555]

I agree on the C-bet play. Not the best time to try the check-raise.
Ultimately, If i had made a 50% pot C-bet, villain reraises all-in, it wud have been a crying fold for me.

Spoiler: Decision

As you mentioned, I made the call, expecting mostly AX of hearts to be shown.
Didnt expect a set to be played that way. (I prolly wud have went for one more street of value before jam)

9 handed, 0.5 / $1 cash game, everyone starts with 100BB
Hero: 110 BB -ish
Villain: 95BB
The rest of the table: 80 - 120BB


Stacks were relatively even, hence no one jammed preflop with their picture pockets

You bloated this pot so much by raising so big pre that it would be a mistake to fold on the flop. If they have you beat, oh well.

Do you raise this big with all your hands? I'm not saying you need to be balanced in this game, but changing opening sizes is one of the easiest things for even bad players to notice.

And a little theory note: when you raise this big your opponents can just fold hands you want them to call with, like dominated AX and KX. If you think players are going to call giant opens, then by all means go crazy with your big hands. But if you are doing it either because you don't want action or don't want them to call with bad hands and go multiway, then you are doing it for the wrong reasons.

 

[MichaelBubly]

Most likely just folding against a lot of opponents. Snap calling against some, but not most.

I don't know though. I guess maybe like Ax of hearts could possibly take this line. It just really feels super nutted here. I can't imagine anyone would rip a worse ace without the nut flush draw as well. But that's such a dumb line because you'll only be getting called by better hands that you're flipping with.

It's a horrible play and wouldn't consider this player to be very great just based off of this line. I would bet money on this being a set. Or top two occasionally. But I feel like 8-9/10 times hero is dominated here.

I don't know though. If it's a splashy game overall and ripping 90+BB on the flop is common then I'm running it. But if it's not some crazy fish who normal just donk jams flops then I'd just fold and pick a better spot.

 

[TAG_Cowboys]

You bloated this pot so much by raising so big pre that it would be a mistake to fold on the flop. If they have you beat, oh well.

Do you raise this big with all your hands? I'm not saying you need to be balanced in this game, but changing opening sizes is one of the easiest things for even bad players to notice.

And a little theory note: when you raise this big your opponents can just fold hands you want them to call with, like dominated AX and KX. If you think players are going to call giant opens, then by all means go crazy with your big hands. But if you are doing it either because you don't want action or don't want them to call with bad hands and go multiway, then you are doing it for the wrong reasons.

Good point on the change in bet sizing.

I felt that at that point in the game, people in late position were starting to call light with worse hands. (might be an indirect result of us playing together so often, game felt somewhat looser)

Changing to 9BB was a mixture of trying to find a new sizing which discourages flat calling, but mainly due to being OOP with AKo.

 

[ngmcs8203]

It’s been mentioned but there is zero reason to raise more than 2.5-3BB unless larger is a standard open. If you are only doing it to ‘win the pot preflop, that is not the right mindset. You are risking 8BB to win 1.5BB. On this flop if you get 4 callers at 3BB instead of 9BB your SPR is much higher and it is going to be easier to get away.

There is zero reason for you to check this flop, especially to protect against draws, but really you don’t want to sacrifice the betting lead here. I’d lead for a larger bet in the b60-b75 range. If you get raised, you can re-consider. However, if the pot is 11.5BB instead of 36BB, your cbet is only 6-7BB instead of 24-30BB. Not sure how deep you guys are but that’s how I’d play it 100-200BB deep.

 

[MrCatPants]

Unless this is an epic maniac (instead of a standard maniac) this is just a fold. Betting into two people yet to act and an OOP check after your UTG open, it screams middle or bottom set, 87h, or a two paired ace that's worried about getting sucked out on.

I mean you fold this to Ax of hearts so be it. But that's about the only thing you are beating with a ridiculous move like CO made.

 

[Legend5555]

Changing to 9BB was a mixture of trying to find a new sizing which discourages flat calling, but mainly due to being OOP with AKo.

You didn't want to discourage people from calling when you have strong hands. And the larger sizing when OOP is more when you are 3 betting from the blinds. I didn't entirely agree that your opens should be in the 3x range though. In live games at 1/3 blinds or less, 5x is a pretty common open size that still gets called by plenty of worse hands. 9x is just a lot though.

 

[TAG_Cowboys]

You didn't want to discourage people from calling when you have strong hands.

I meant that it was more like an isolation bet. Get maybe 1 - 2 callers max

It was getting loose with ppl flat calling 5BBs with worse hands, and AKo is not hand that plays well multiway, I felt that it was necessary to raise the bet up to reduce flat callers trying to gamble the flop.

Should have worded that better.

 

[ngmcs8203]

I meant that it was more like an isolation bet. Get maybe 1 - 2 callers max

It was getting loose with ppl flat calling 5BBs with worse hands, and AKo is not hand that plays well multiway, I felt that it was necessary to raise the bet up to reduce flat callers trying to gamble the flop.

Should have worded that better.

I still fail to see why 9BB out of position is any better than 3-5BB. If your opponents are going to call 1/10 of their stack with any two cards, why are you more afraid of playing the same opponents for a raise that is 1/20 of your stack? If you don’t want to play AKo multiway and are committing so much of your stack to HOPEFULLY play heads-up you might as well fold.

 

[TexasFish]

I still fail to see why 9BB out of position is any better than 3-5BB. If your opponents are going to call 1/10 of their stack with any two cards, why are you more afraid of playing the same opponents for a raise that is 1/20 of your stack? If you don’t want to play AKo multiway and are committing so much of your stack to HOPEFULLY play heads-up you might as well fold.

Agree with this, also smaller sizing can encourage 3betting and you can then get even more in. If 9BB was also normal sizing, then you could also bet smaller, have someone raise to 9BB and come in over the top. But this would involve you playing smaller sizings all the time. Also, earlier discussion about not calling if you don't have a heart I kind of disagree with. Would rather keep Ah and Kh in the possible bluffs. If we hold them then we're really looking at a very thin bluff range. If you held both, you definitely call but you're probably gonna see mostly sets here and then maybe some Two Pair? I think jam is super nutted but I would almost never lay this down unless I had a good read. Just sigh and rebuy.

 

[allforcharity]

Ah, the Anna Kournikova. Looks good, but rarely wins.

 

[JustinInMN]

Ah, the Anna Kournikova. Looks good, but rarely wins.

2004 called, they want their joke back.

 

[ngmcs8203]

2004 called, they want their joke back.

I just went back to see what my last 5k hands look like with AKo and AKs. Dealt 67 times and I've lost 100BB twice with it. Once when I got it in versus A4s (I was in the CO and he 5! jammed with A4s in the button) and the second time when I got 4! jammed on by the HJ while I was in the CO. He had 99. The all-in equity adjusted BB won number is 135BB. I've won a total of 26BB in those 67 instances.

 

[allforcharity]

I just went back to see what my last 5k hands look like with AKo and AKs. Dealt 67 times and I've lost 100BB twice with it. Once when I got it in versus A4s (I was in the CO and he 5! jammed with A4s in the button) and the second time when I got 4! jammed on by the HJ while I was in the CO. He had 99. The all-in equity adjusted BB won number is 135BB. I've won a total of 26BB in those 67 instances.

The prosecution rests.

 

[JustinInMN]

The prosecution rests.

You can't do worse than Hamilton Burger. (Yes , I am making a 60 year old reference in the same thread I am mocking a 20 year old joke .)