How to calculate equity on a made hand? (9 Viewers)

[LuckyStars]

Hello! I hope this is the right place to post this. I'm having trouble finding answers online, but I had a question on calculating equity. I understand the 4 2 rule and how to calculate my equity based on my outs but I have no clue how to calculate equity on a made hand. For example, the board is and my hole cards are . It's obvious that trips have fairly high equity in this position, but I'd have no clue how to calculate this when playing the hand. I realistically have 7 outs, which would give me roughly 28% equity. However, when using an online equity calculator, the equity is 96%. This is quite an obvious difference but I'm having trouble figuring out how to calculate this at the table. If anybody could give me some kind of formula, chart to memorise or show me where I've gone wrong, it'd be much appreciated. Thank you for any help!

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

So equity means your share of the pot; its super easy to do when you know what the other hands are, you just plug it in and calculate, woohoo! The problem is when you start calculating your equity against a range of unknown hands. The 96% you cited, whats that against?

The 4 2 rule is multiplying your 'outs', but when you have trip Kings you're not looking for outs, you're wondering how far ahead of the other player you are. If you're thinking about him having AK or KQ, you can say your outs are the other 3 10s, or a 5 for the chop. But you're very far ahead of most of the hands he'd arrive here yet, smashing Aces.

All that to say it seems like youre confused on what calculating equity is. Its more applicable if you have 4 to a flush or a straight, you can calculate what you need to make that hand and ASSUMES that if you make that hand you're winning the pot. In your given case, you have a strong hand and wont be looking for outs.

 

[kmccormick100]

Part of the equity equation is based on your opponents’ holdings. You can calculate exact equity against an exact hand or hands, for instance against 55 you have 4 outs, and about 23% equity.

Against an opponents unknown hand, you’re up against a perceived range, which is where hand reading and range construction come in. Various online solver tools can help solve for approximate equities based on a set range, but solving this in real time is the challenge.

 

[Legend5555]

The 96% equity is your hand vs the villains entire range of hands. Depending on what is doing the calculation, it could be against a 100% random range. More likely, it's a solver and showing you the equity against the villain's range that has gotten to this point.

Knowing some rough estimates of equity can be really useful because the higher your equity, the more likely you are in a spot where you want to bet large to maximize value. Though that's not always true, obviously, as board texture and your range will still dictate a lot of your sizing too. But when you have high equity, every bet you put in that gets called returns a very large amount of that pot to you.

 

[Phoe9x]

When you have a made hand, you need to think of what your villain might have.

In this case you need to group your villains range into hand you have beat vs hands you are losing against. If you beat 100% of their hands, then you have a lot of equity. If you have are behind all of their range, then you only have 28% equity. If you beat exactly 50% of their range, then you most likely have ~75% equity.

 

[jxfan]

I was in almost this exact spot with on a similar flop, and I led out against villain x. Turn came a , and I continued for a pot sized bet, which the villain then jammed on me. I felt I was losing to only one holding, which was , since I had a in my hand so it was unlikely they had KJ. Turns out I had the correct read but I couldn't fold and I ended up getting stacked by pocket J's. In this case, I would've had around 75% equity if not more I think understanding the range of hands that different players will play, especially with preflop action, is quite important - especially so if you have a made hand too.

 

[TheDogg]

the tool I use for this is equilab. You can calculate the equity of your hand vs. a range of hands. This kind of work is typically done to solve preflop situations preflop, where you will be able to realize all your equity and may not be able to fold your opponent off any of their range. e.g., should I be jamming 77 on 6bb dealer vs utg open or similar.

 

[WideRange]

Another thing to think about in a made hand situation - more so for how you approach betting, but also in terms of how to approach villain range's equity, is what are the %s of "scare cards." On this board, given it's rainbow / not connected - turns will usually be static (i.e. the turn card rarely changes who is leading the hand). You can be thinking on the flop about probabilities of (i) a runner/runner flush coming (~6% of the time), or a runner/runner straight coming (~9% of the time). Let's say this was a 2 heart flop for instance, or KKJr - would run your turn/river "outs" math by what all those scare cards are, and think about what % of your opponents range is made up of hands where these scare cards are applicable. All the math changes when you're thinking about blockers, but I think would get the unblocked numbers / thought process in your head before you start doing that.

 

[ontheriver51]

The 96% is computer a computer comparing what you currently have vs all the random hands your opponent should have. An easy way to calculate quickly in your head is to make a few guesses as opponents hand. If he has a flush draw what's his equity? If he has a pocket pair, what's his equity? You can then subtract each of those from 100% to give you your equity vs each. In this case, there are only backdoor draws. You could consider backdoor flush draws, Ax combos, pocket pairs, etc. In reality though, if he doesn't have Kx or 55 he will be drawing nearly dead and the math is moot .