Investment Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[ImCrossland]

In light of me being completely unproductive at the office today because of some investment quandaries, I wanted to start a dedicated thread for asking questions out loud and hopefully getting some productive responses.

I have no intention of picking winners/losers or who is right or wrong. Just sharing thoughts with a group I have so much in common with.

I have very little to zero financial expertise, nor do I have a long track record to show from. For those of you who would consider yourself an expert, and/or those who have invested for long periods of time in their life, I’d love to hear from you!

-Triston

 

[ImCrossland]

First question I have:

If you aren’t investing for retirement, is there a particular % ROI that you will always sell at out of principle or how flexible are you with that?

Per my original posting, I admittedly have very little experience in this field. It just feels silly of me not to sell a stock after it passes a 20% gain.

Any thoughts are appreciated as long as they’re productive.

 

[Coyote]

For people like you and me, who are no experts, and are always the victim of profiteers and Goverments' inefficiency, the only safe solution for keeping one's money (paying for it to be securely kept) is Swiss Francs (CHF) in Switzerland. The rest is speculative bullshit in this volatile world.

In a way, I AM an expert, 'cause I lost most of my cash in this life, 180K Euros, in Greek Government bonds. If I had them in a Greek bank, I would still have them. I thought that banks go bankrupt before Governments do. Wrong.

Even with negative interest rates (i.e. paying for your money to be kept), the Swiss banks don't want your money, unless it's at least half a million, I estimate.

 

[Nanook]

First question I have:

If you aren’t investing for retirement, is there a particular % ROI that you will always sell at out of principle or how flexible are you with that?

Always cashing out at say 20% or some other arbitrary # doesn't make a lot of sense because it is arbitrary.

Per my original posting, I admittedly have very little experience in this field. It just feels silly of me not to sell a stock after it passes a 20% gain.

Any thoughts are appreciated as long as they’re productive.

You should cash out when your original premise (the reason you invested in the 1st place) is no longer true/valid or you have come up with a better idea.

 

[casinochipper22]

I recommend this book/information to anyone who is trying to get serious about their finances. Its usually the most simple solutions that work best.

https://www.amazon.com/Total-Money-...d=1643750522&sprefix=the+total,aps,283&sr=8-1

He would tell you to save 15% of your income in retirement. Put it in growth stock mutual funds or snp index funds. And thats it. Don't mess with it. Don't touch it. with no debt and saving on a regular basis, pretty much anyone with an average or greater income can be worth a million+ within 10-15 years.

 

[Nanook]

.........He would tell you to save 15% of your income in retirement. Put it in growth stock mutual funds or snp index funds. And thats it. Don't mess with it. Don't touch it. with no debt and saving on a regular basis, pretty much anyone with an average or greater income can be worth a million+ within 10-15 years.

You can get better returns, but it takes a lot of time and effort. Unless you have both the time and are willing/able to put the time and energy into it, you would be best to do as advised above.

 

[nezara]

First question I have:

If you aren’t investing for retirement, is there a particular % ROI that you will always sell at out of principle or how flexible are you with that?

Per my original posting, I admittedly have very little experience in this field. It just feels silly of me not to sell a stock after it passes a 20% gain.

Any thoughts are appreciated as long as they’re productive.

If you don't know what you're doing just put everything into index funds and you'll be rich one day. Don't time the market, don't worry about anything other than ongoing contributions.

If you have time and energy to evaluate individual stocks you can beat index funds, in that case your fundamental evaluation of a company will tell you when it's time to sell.

 

[utgtrash]

soxl

 

[Skagglio]

I recommend this book/information to anyone who is trying to get serious about their finances. Its usually the most simple solutions that work best.

https://www.amazon.com/Total-Money-Makeover-Classic-Financial/dp/1595555277/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=the+total+money+makeover+by+dave+ramsey&qid=1643750522&sprefix=the+total,aps,283&sr=8-1

He would tell you to save 15% of your income in retirement. Put it in growth stock mutual funds or snp index funds. And thats it. Don't mess with it. Don't touch it. with no debt and saving on a regular basis, pretty much anyone with an average or greater income can be worth a million+ within 10-15 years.

I agree 100% with your advice, but I think your numbers are a bit rosy. You would need to save far above 15% of an average salary to achieve 1M in 15 years starting from nothing.

 

[Lil Tuna]

Never make the same mistake twice.

 

[utgtrash]

is there a reasonably good npv calculator online somewhere

 

[casinochipper22]

I agree 100% with your advice, but I think your numbers are a bit rosy. You would need to save far above 15% of an average salary to achieve 1M in 15 years starting from nothing.View attachment 856898

agreed. It would take more or less time depending on returns. 6% is pretty weak. I've heard the market averages around 8-10 since inception.

 

[Nanook]

agreed. It would take more or less time depending on returns. 6% is pretty weak. I've heard the market averages around 8-10 since inception.

The Devil is in the details.....
You have heard that from the investment firms etc. What they don't tell you is that you have to pay taxes on your gains & that # they quote you is pre tax. If you regularly put money into an index fund or EFT your after tax return over many years will not be anywhere near their quoted 8 or 10%

 

[DirtyTIVA]

I teach some basic financial advice to future medical professionals. We cover ideas like

Average American retirement assets at age 60 = 250-300k
Median American household retirement assets at age 60 = >1M

Historical performance of the SP500 is 8% which is what investors most like to quote. But whether this will help you meet your retirement goals or not is debatable.

If your goal is to leave Vegas with 10k and you’re starting with 1k, you need 1000% return to get there. Whereas if you start with a 1000k bankroll you just need 1%.

TRowe Price has a chart recommending you have 10-12x your annual income by age 60 in savings/investments.

The old 4% rule may not really apply these days- the idea that you hit retirement and you draw down your remaining assets 4% a year. You need to ask yourself if that number is sufficient or not.

I personally do not think the returns of recent years will continue but that’s an opinion. I echo the idea that active management will likely not outperform the broader market and the time investment necessary to do so beyond dumb luck could turn it into a job of sorts.

You’re a young guy Triston. I personally like the 50/30/20 rule meaning try to keep your fixed costs at or below 50% of your income. Try to save or invest 20% of your income, leaving 30% for discretionary spending (the kind you can change at any time). Depending how you’re doing you can allocate some of the 30% to boost your savings rate. Of note the average American savings rate is historically easily <5%, with some years reaching zero or slightly negative. I’m sure PCF or a new ChipRoom sale does not affect that figure at all

Just remember the key to wealth through investing is to not sell. If things drop, buy more. You haven’t lost anything until you cash out and head to the cage. You also haven’t gained anything either.

Most fund managers can agree on when to buy. Few agree on when to sell.

And don’t do binary actions like sell everything or go all in on one thing or at one time. If you have the funds to do so buy some, if it drops more buy more. If it goes up a lot sell some but don’t sell all.

Some food for thought. Ok back to work.

 

[ImCrossland]

Well I’m strapping in for the long haul. Guess I need to start buying poker chips again to avoid looking at the market.

 

[ImCrossland]

Will report back at later date when everything is blood red. This will be a fun (and painful) experiment.

 

[casinochipper22]

The Devil is in the details.....
You have heard that from the investment firms etc. What they don't tell you is that you have to pay taxes on your gains & that # they quote you is pre tax. If you regularly put money into an index fund or EFT your after tax return over many years will not be anywhere near their quoted 8 or 10%

roth?

 

[Lil Tuna]

Guess I’m strapping in for the long haul. Guess I need to start buying poker chips again to avoid looking at the market.

 

[ImCrossland]

View attachment 856921

I’m in the market for WTHC rn too!

 

[inca911]

Not just about managing investments, covers multiple other topics. Might be useful:

https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/the-retirement-planning-investment-savings-thread.27666/

 

[BNM]

I recommend this book/information to anyone who is trying to get serious about their finances. Its usually the most simple solutions that work best.

https://www.amazon.com/Total-Money-Makeover-Classic-Financial/dp/1595555277/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=the+total+money+makeover+by+dave+ramsey&qid=1643750522&sprefix=the+total,aps,283&sr=8-1

He would tell you to save 15% of your income in retirement. Put it in growth stock mutual funds or snp index funds. And thats it. Don't mess with it. Don't touch it. with no debt and saving on a regular basis, pretty much anyone with an average or greater income can be worth a million+ within 10-15 years.

Listened to this guy for a little bit and not a fan, so I will be the first contrarian and advise you to not get this book. Lots of other/better books for beginning investors. A google search will yield a ton of suggestions.

That said, the advice in the last paragraph is solid, reasoned, broadly accepted guidance. Especially for someone who says they are not experienced and don’t know much.

There are also a couple investing themed threads ongoing here which would be good to examine.

 

[nezara]

roth?

Yes everything into Roth while you can.

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Yes everything into Roth while you can.

Back door Roth after you can’t.

 

[nezara]

Back door Roth after you can’t.

Mega back door until we start building back better

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Kids educational funds are effectively Roth’s with much higher limits.

 

[Frogzilla]

1) Do free money things (like participation in 401k for the company match)

2) be smart about taxes. Hold your stuff longer than a year to get the lower rate. Use tax advantaged accounts like IRA and 529 plans when you can

3) don’t be afraid of missing out on the hot trends, and just getting boring normal returns. It’s very fine to be average. Options might look fun, but the rake is huge, and it’s got crushers in there, you and I are the options fish.

 

[BNM]

Mega back door until we start building back better

Email your lawmakers advising you want this provision removed.

 

[DrStrange]

Don't buy individual stocks unless you know what you are doing and are willing to do the homework. Indexes are more appropriate. And not the narrow indexes, broad market only.

Selling is almost always wrong. Put your money in and forget about it.

100% equity is fine until you get really old.

Matching deals for 401K plans are free money. pick up all you can.

It isn't clear that a retirement account is better than a taxable account. For modest amounts of money, you can end up paying more in taxes on an IRA than in a plain taxable account. two reasons - early withdrawals carry tax penalties and the first ~$80,000 of qualified dividends + long term capital gains are tax free. Not out of the question to have a million dollar account that generates noting but tax free income from the stock market.

Start early. Money saved in your 20's can compound into huge amounts.

This is boring, not sexy and will not make you the talk of the town. But it works and it is safe -=- DrStrange

 

[davin]

Maybe the best index to buy is , SPY, QQQ, VOO, VOOV, VYM, VTI all low expense

 

[johnjohn]

Diversification.