Official Horse Race Game Thread (10 Viewers)

[Machine]

Are you making this board? What about creating the numbers in such a way as they is a hole or rivet to allow for a tab of some type to be easily placed over the numbers of scratches.
You could also just have a fold pile and as per your house rules scratched horses cards are discarded as useless....and possibly and opportunity to make those players pay into the kitty. Then simply the pile of cards perhaps into some type of recess on your board could be like the tote board at every racetrack posting its scratches/odds etc.

I was thinking I might put numbers on the back of the figures and then place a marker next to them denoting the bet multiplier.

So I could paint a 4 on his back and obviously 4 is scratched or I could put a flag or number on the base. If it’s the first troll then it would get a 1, signifying that it’s the base bet, e.g. .25 and 2 would be .5 and so on.

If I ever get anywhere with it I’ll post photos

 

[warma]

Why do you need a scratch area or to remove horses in the first place?

Makes it easier to track and know how much to pay when you roll a scratched number.

 

[Sparkynutz]

Makes it easier to track and know how much to pay when you roll a scratched number.

I mean why do horses need to be removed instead of playing with all 8

 

[warma]

I mean why do horses need to be removed instead of playing with all 8

That’s how the pot grows. Might be missing the question. My brain is fried.

 

[IllCallOneTime]

Mark of the beast to end the night!!! Let’s gooooooo 3/4 of the pot.

 

[Sparkynutz]

After thinking about win probabilities etc my head would just not be satisfied unless I had the answer while considering the scratched horses. So I wrote a simulation of the game to calculate the probabilities of an individual horse winning. These results are for 10,000 rounds of the game each so not enough for stability but good enough for an idea.

Based on the starting probabilities and the base number of holes to win, here are the win probabilities:

Horse	Win Requirement	Win %
2	3	22%
3	6	11%
4	9	7%
5	12	5%
6	15	3%
7	18	2%
8	15	3%
9	12	5%
10	9	7%
11	6	12%
12	3	23%

Now taking into account the Fineni board with the lower hole counts for horses 4-10:

Horse	Win Requirement	Win %
2	3	20%
3	6	9%
4	8	10%
5	11	6%
6	14	4%
7	17	2%
8	14	4%
9	11	6%
10	8	10%
11	6	10%
12	3	21%

So horses 2 and 12 are much more likely to win.

The simple change of adding a hole to horses 2 and 12 give you these results:

Horse	Win Requirement	Win %
2	4	10%
3	6	13%
4	8	13%
5	11	8%
6	14	5%
7	17	4%
8	14	5%
9	11	8%
10	8	13%
11	6	12%
12	4	10%

And finally a rough optimization to get a tighter spread of win probabilities:

Horse	Win Requirement	Win %
2	4	8%
3	6	10%
4	8	11%
5	10	9%
6	12	8%
7	13	10%
8	12	8%
9	10	9%
10	8	10%
11	6	10%
12	4	8%

However after having run this simulation, I realize that the win% I calculate is considering the final probability of a given horse winning from the start of the game before horses are scratched. So if you want to see a better spread of which horses win over multiple races, the above holes would be better but for a given race, if a middling horse number is not scratched, it'll have a higher chance of winning that race.

View attachment 891348

And if anyone's interested, here are the probabilities of a given horse being scratched in each of the scratch rounds (taking into account the likelihood of a horse being scratched in a previous scratch round).

Horse	Scratch 1	Scratch 2	Scratch 3	Scratch 4
2	3%	3%	3%	4%
3	5%	6%	6%	7%
4	8%	9%	9%	9%
5	11%	11%	11%	11%
6	14%	14%	13%	13%
7	17%	16%	14%	13%
8	14%	13%	14%	12%
9	11%	11%	11%	11%
10	8%	8%	9%	10%
11	6%	6%	6%	7%
12	3%	3%	3%	4%

Any chance you still have the ability to run more numbers?
If a d6 and a d8 dice were used giving horses 2-14 or a total of 13 horses.
Ace or Jokers could be used for the #14 horse.
What would the Optimal # of holes for each horse be like your very last chart?

I was thinking of doing the following spaces but unsure how it would play.
I also don't think the #13 and #14 horse would have the same odds as #2 and #3 but maybe I'm wrong.

Horse#, Rolls to Win
2 4
3 6
4 8
5 10
6 12
7 14
8 16
9 14
10 12
11 10
12 8
13 6
14 4

 

[BPTDirector]

I have an extra FINENI horse race game I am listing this week. Used two times. PM’s are welcome.

 

[Darson]

Any chance you still have the ability to run more numbers?
If a d6 and a d8 dice were used giving horses 2-14 or a total of 13 horses.
Ace or Jokers could be used for the #14 horse.
What would the Optimal # of holes for each horse be like your very last chart?

I was thinking of doing the following spaces but unsure how it would play.
I also don't think the #13 and #14 horse would have the same odds as #2 and #3 but maybe I'm wrong.

Horse#, Rolls to Win
2 4
3 6
4 8
5 10
6 12
7 14
8 16
9 14
10 12
11 10
12 8
13 6
14 4

Starting with the roll probabilities with a D6 & D8:

Roll	Probability
2	2.08%
3	4.17%
4	6.25%
5	8.33%
6	10.42%
7	12.50%
8	12.50%
9	12.50%
10	10.42%
11	8.33%
12	6.25%
13	4.17%
14	2.08%

So you can see that 7, 8 & 9 all have the same probability - they should all have the same number of holes.

Luckily for you my code had each dice randomisation separate so I just changed the second to a D8 and expanded the arrays a little. If we just use the roll probabilities above (and ignoring scratch) we get the following spacing:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	2
3	4
4	6
5	8
6	10
7	12
8	12
9	12
10	10
11	8
12	6
13	4
14	2

Then race including scratch and we get these results:

A very similar pattern to the 2xD6. the 2 & 14 have way more chance of winning.

This is pretty close to optimal with nice numbers for your D6/D8 combo:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	4
3	6
4	8
5	10
6	12
7	14
8	14
9	14
10	12
11	10
12	8
13	6
14	4

 

[Sparkynutz]

Starting with the roll probabilities with a D6 & D8:

Roll	Probability
2	2.08%
3	4.17%
4	6.25%
5	8.33%
6	10.42%
7	12.50%
8	12.50%
9	12.50%
10	10.42%
11	8.33%
12	6.25%
13	4.17%
14	2.08%

So you can see that 7, 8 & 9 all have the same probability - they should all have the same number of holes.

Luckily for you my code had each dice randomisation separate so I just changed the second to a D8 and expanded the arrays a little. If we just use the roll probabilities above (and ignoring scratch) we get the following spacing:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	2
3	4
4	6
5	8
6	10
7	12
8	12
9	12
10	10
11	8
12	6
13	4
14	2

Then race including scratch and we get these results:

View attachment 1093403

A very similar pattern to the 2xD6. the 2 & 14 have way more chance of winning.

This is pretty close to optimal with nice numbers for your D6/D8 combo:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	4
3	6
4	8
5	10
6	12
7	14
8	14
9	14
10	12
11	10
12	8
13	6
14	4

View attachment 1093400

I noticed horse 12 is higher than 4 in the last chart with both a little higher % than the rest. What would happen to the chart if 12 and 4 had +1 or -1? Would that flatten the curve any farther?

Lastly, I thought I saw it in a post somewhere but don't recall where. Did you have an average rolls required to finish each race or a min and max typical?

Thanks so much for the info!

 

[Darson]

I noticed horse 12 is higher than 4 in the last chart with both a little higher % than the rest. What would happen to the chart if 12 and 4 had +1 or -1? Would that flatten the curve any farther?

Lastly, I thought I saw it in a post somewhere but don't recall where. Did you have an average rolls required to finish each race or a min and max typical?

Thanks so much for the info!

The difference between horse 4 and 12 is because I only ran 10,000 simulations. If I do more, the curve flattens but that takes more time. Here are the results for 100,000 games:

As for the +/- 1, remember that there are only 8 rolls to win so if you change by +1 to get the likelihood of winning to decrease, then that's a 12% change so the swing is huge. If I change horse 4 and 12 to 9 then look what happens (10,000 games):

 

[Darson]

Lastly, I thought I saw it in a post somewhere but don't recall where. Did you have an average rolls required to finish each race or a min and max typical?

This is an interesting question. I wasn't tracking this but I added a counter and I get the following (note I didn't add +4 for the scratch rolls):

2xD6 with Fineni holes = average of 54 rolls
2xD6 with my simple optimised holes = average of 56 rolls
1xD6 & 1xD8 with my optimised holes = average of 71 rolls

 

[Darson]

For the Fineni board in case anyone is interested:

Average 54 rolls. There is a 0.25% chance your game will be 100 rolls or more (they don't show up on the graph).

 

[Sparkynutz]

The difference between horse 4 and 12 is because I only ran 10,000 simulations. If I do more, the curve flattens but that takes more time. Here are the results for 100,000 games:

View attachment 1093621

As for the +/- 1, remember that there are only 8 rolls to win so if you change by +1 to get the likelihood of winning to decrease, then that's a 12% change so the swing is huge. If I change horse 4 and 12 to 9 then look what happens (10,000 games):

View attachment 1093623

Wow! I didn't realize the change was that drastic in +1. I also didn't realize that the simulations number could affect a variance of 1% even at as huge number of plays as 10,000.
So cool you can do that!

This is an interesting question. I wasn't tracking this but I added a counter and I get the following (note I didn't add +4 for the scratch rolls):

2xD6 with Fineni holes = average of 54 rolls
2xD6 with my simple optimised holes = average of 56 rolls
1xD6 & 1xD8 with my optimised holes = average of 71 rolls

Oof that's a lot of rolls.
Do you feel that even at 50 rolls the game is just dragging on too long?
Do you have any suggestions for my original horse game posted a few pages back?
Many people that played it suggested that game dragged on too long and that less spaces would be helpful.
If I recall correctly the typical game was around 30-40 rolls.
I wonder if shortening Horse 2 and 12 to 3 rolls instead of 4 would allow the rest to still be balanced and reduce rolls significantly enough to be worthwhile.
We have not played any other horse racing game as a group yet besides mine but I'm hoping to have a few versions on hand soon to host a whole night of just racing games.

 

[raynmanas]

Starting with the roll probabilities with a D6 & D8:

Roll	Probability
2	2.08%
3	4.17%
4	6.25%
5	8.33%
6	10.42%
7	12.50%
8	12.50%
9	12.50%
10	10.42%
11	8.33%
12	6.25%
13	4.17%
14	2.08%

So you can see that 7, 8 & 9 all have the same probability - they should all have the same number of holes.

Luckily for you my code had each dice randomisation separate so I just changed the second to a D8 and expanded the arrays a little. If we just use the roll probabilities above (and ignoring scratch) we get the following spacing:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	2
3	4
4	6
5	8
6	10
7	12
8	12
9	12
10	10
11	8
12	6
13	4
14	2

Then race including scratch and we get these results:

View attachment 1093403

A very similar pattern to the 2xD6. the 2 & 14 have way more chance of winning.

This is pretty close to optimal with nice numbers for your D6/D8 combo:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	4
3	6
4	8
5	10
6	12
7	14
8	14
9	14
10	12
11	10
12	8
13	6
14	4

View attachment 1093400

have you run the simulation yet with the regular D6/D6 for the overall odds for each horse including scratches for the Fineni board?

 

[Sparkynutz]

have you run the simulation yet with the regular D6/D6 for the overall odds for each horse including scratches for the Fineni board?

What you're looking for is posted earlier.

 

[raynmanas]

What you're looking for is posted earlier.

yeah i just found it. so it is interesting that the odds of 7 winning are so low solely because of scratches. if it is not scratched, it actually has better odds than 2, 3, 11, and 12 - right?

 

[Darson]

Sunday Funday!

 

[Riddler409]

yeah...I think im going to have to get into this game...

 

[Sparkynutz]

Starting with the roll probabilities with a D6 & D8:

Roll	Probability
2	2.08%
3	4.17%
4	6.25%
5	8.33%
6	10.42%
7	12.50%
8	12.50%
9	12.50%
10	10.42%
11	8.33%
12	6.25%
13	4.17%
14	2.08%

So you can see that 7, 8 & 9 all have the same probability - they should all have the same number of holes.

Luckily for you my code had each dice randomisation separate so I just changed the second to a D8 and expanded the arrays a little. If we just use the roll probabilities above (and ignoring scratch) we get the following spacing:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	2
3	4
4	6
5	8
6	10
7	12
8	12
9	12
10	10
11	8
12	6
13	4
14	2

Then race including scratch and we get these results:

View attachment 1093403

A very similar pattern to the 2xD6. the 2 & 14 have way more chance of winning.

This is pretty close to optimal with nice numbers for your D6/D8 combo:

Horse	Rolls to Win
2	4
3	6
4	8
5	10
6	12
7	14
8	14
9	14
10	12
11	10
12	8
13	6
14	4

View attachment 1093400

Started working on the board.
All numbers are divisible by 2 so would halving all of them give same results?
Or since 2 and 14 are most likely to win, what would making them both 3 holes to win and halving the rest to make games shorter?

 

[Darson]

Started working on the board.
All numbers are divisible by 2 so would halving all of them give same results?
Or since 2 and 14 are most likely to win, what would making them both 3 holes to win and halving the rest to make games shorter?

Firstly, I think you're worrying too much about the game going on too long. Remember that many rolls take a few seconds - roll dice then pay scratch penalty/ move a horse and then on to the next player. You're adding ~25% more time to each round with your extra horses.

Remember that changing by one hole makes a huge impact. And dividing the number of holes by 2 is not a simple answer - rolling snake eyes 4 times is much less likely than rolling it twice.

 

[Sparkynutz]

I'm going to whip up a few cardboard models with holes of the 71 round and 37 round charts you posted to see how long they actually take, how much difference the betting is etc. I'm figuring the average rolls being double, the pots would be similar ratio. I'm also estimating the pots may average slightly smaller with 13 horses than the 11 horse version due to less likely to roll a scratch. I'm hoping the extra holes accommodates more players better since there will actually be 8 more cards dealt too.

On a different note I did some research on famous horse names and made a few of my own trying to match the card number or color best I could to them. What do you think? Not sure how to incorporate that to the game but would be cool to announce when they move or win.
2- Second Wind - Light Blue
3- Third Times a Charm -Pink
4- Cuatro Cartel -Yellow
5- Fusaichi Pegasus -Brown
6- Six Perfections -Blue
7- Secretariat -Green
8- Eight Belles -Grey
9- Mandarin Mare -Orange
10- Seabuscuit - Light Green
11/Jack- Man O War -Red
12/Queen- Queen Zenyatta -Purple
13/King- King of the Wind -White
14/Ace- Black Caviar -Black

 

[chippitydoodah]

Ok… now I think I need a Dinosaur racing board.
View attachment 913044

Jurassic Park Series....gotta throw in a Jeff Goldblum piece

 

[Darson]

St Paddy’s day horse racing. One of my buddies had recently turned 60 and was on an absolute heater - not only had winning horses in nearly every race but almost every time had two!

 

[Riddler409]

St Paddy’s day horse racing. One of my buddies had recently turned 60 and was on an absolute heater - not only had winning horses in nearly every race but almost every time had two!

View attachment 1102255
View attachment 1102256

Where did you get that board set?

 

[jja412]

Where did you get that board set?

Looks like a Fineni set to me...
Fineni Sets on Amazon

 

[Riddler409]

Looks like a Fineni set to me...
Fineni Sets on Amazon

thanks! all the ones that pop up on amazon for the searches ive done look like trash. This is perfect!

 

[Darson]

Yeah it’s a Fineni cherry board. I made the box from cherry myself

 

[Riddler409]

Yeah it’s a Fineni cherry board. I made the box from cherry myself
View attachment 1102296

it looks great!

 

[Sparkynutz]

I'm working very slowly on a project for this game and its table top gaming based, I posted early in the thread, I'm looking for some ideas on the scratched horses.

Rather than have a posting of the horse behind the line, I want to take this section off the board completely. I still need a way to mark the scratched horses.

My thought is I would have a set of chips numbered 2 through 12, and if the scratched horses are say 4 2 9 7, I would place a chip with the corresponding number behind the board (typically where the scratched horses would sit)

I either need some ideals on the cheapest way to get 2-12 chips or a better idea.

If I had a custom set made by BRPro I think I would need 25 min per chip, I don't think I could do a group buy for them lol, I could do something with Gear and put them on proper chips. Most Seating chip sets only go up to 10.

Any thoughts?

I'm using horses but I have dice chips in 12 colors, soon to be 13 colors once I get the hard to find light green. You could use those maybe sharpie a horse or hotstamp them. I was actually thinking about gluing my horses to them to use as a base. That may make the layout too wide for the table with the extra horses. I'll see how my current horses fit first.
I just made my prototype tonight that will go permanently on the back of my roulette felt soon.
I'm using a d8 and a d6 for 13 horses tho.
a 0-5 dice and a 1-8 so I can use the Ace as 1 through King as 13.
Next to the horse racing is duck racing to make the most of the felt.

 

[Machine]

I'm using horses but I have dice chips in 12 colors, soon to be 13 colors once I get the hard to find light green. You could use those maybe sharpie a horse or hotstamp them. I was actually thinking about gluing my horses to them to use as a base. That may make the layout too wide for the table with the extra horses. I'll see how my current horses fit first.
I just made my prototype tonight that will go permanently on the back of my roulette felt soon.
I'm using a d8 and a d6 for 13 horses tho.
a 0-5 dice and a 1-8 so I can use the Ace as 1 through King as 13.
Next to the horse racing is duck racing to make the most of the felt.

I think I figured it out, I’m working with a designer and the plan is to order a small table topper.

I can’t wait to get it done, I’ll post photos once it’s complete. I’m using table top markers and a consolidated board. So the scratch lanes won’t be on the board at all.

I’ve also changed gears on the theme.