PAHWM: $500NLH (1 Viewer)

[JustinInMN]

Hero elects to just flat, but not because we're worried about what Villain holds, but because, generally, a large turn bet is coming after the small flop bet gets called, especially if Villain is bluffing. Pot is $45.50.

The turn brings the . Hero now has top two.

Should we lead against Villain? If we check and Villain bets, do we consider a check-raise? What's our plan for this street?

I really would want the history on how villain responds to our check on the turn. If villain is likely to go two-barrels widely, I would check intending to raise here. it's really tough to get 3 streets of value by check-calling 3 times. Our best bet to add value I think is to go for it here, it also protects us in the future if we decide we are check-raising some semi bluffs here (which we might against someone who is loose and betting misses twice.) If we check call the turn the river options look pretty rough. We are going to have to lead and hope villain is strong enough to pay off. If we check and raise the turn, I think this may look more bluffy and will put villain on the defensive in a spot at the river as to whether or not to bluff catch.

If the check-raise loses villain here, villain probably has a holding that would have had checked behind on the river anyway, or perhaps if hero elects to lead the river, would have folded. In other words, if hero doesn't collect on the turn check raise, hero was unlikely to get anything out of a different line anyway.

If villain is likely to check behind on the turn, that may increase the case to lead hoping he has enough strength to defend. A check-check turn isn't horrible on this board either. And we can definitely go for the green light because then villain will have to decide if he needs to call after showing weakness on the turn.

So I think check and raise gives us the most good outcomes, even if we are going to lose villain here a hunk of the time, I think that would happen with leading as well. Check and raise gives us the upside of collecting on the raise and one more bet at the river. And check-check isn't great, but the only real tragedy would be if villain hits an unlikely gutter for free. If we survive that we have a chance to go for big value at the river and making it look bluffy.

 

[Kain8]

If the check-raise loses villain here, villain probably has a holding that would have had checked behind on the river anyway, or perhaps if hero elects to lead the river, would have folded. In other words, if hero doesn't collect on the turn check raise, hero was unlikely to get anything out of a different line anyway.

Can't agree more after having it put like that.

 

[Legend5555]

Can't agree more after having it put like that.

This is what I was getting at earlier, just said not explicitly.

 

[Chester Copperpot]

In this spot, I’m raising the turn to an amount he’ll have to call. Then I am betting large on the river, because the raise may shut him down from betting the river.

I guess I agree with the above that your best chance to get value here is a turn raise.

 

[Legend5555]

How long you going to keep us waiting?

 

[LotsOfChips]

zzzzzzz.....

 

[chipsncoffee]

Sorry everyone. I was feeling a little under the weather yesterday, so I spent most of the day in bed. Let's wrap this hand up!

So, Villain has bet $30 into $45.50, and we need to decide if now is the time to raise for value, or if we should flat here and let our ultra-aggressive opponent hang themselves on the river. By just flatting OOP, we do risk missing value should Villain only be barreling here, and there are a ton of worse hands that they could be doing so with. We could also potentially miss out on value if we decide to check-raise the turn if Villain has nothing and folds.

Hero decides to flat the $30, bringing the pot to $105.50, and we go to the river, which is the .

No flush draws got there, and only KQ and 89 got there to complete any straights.

We flatted the turn with the intention of checking any river card to see if Villain would barrel one more time, and the is a really good card for us because, if Villain is trying to push us off of a one-pair type of hand, this card doesn't kill our action in the way that another A or even a J would.

So Hero checks, and Villain overbets pretty huge, putting $206.50 into $105.50. Villain has just over ~$305 behind.

What is Hero's move?

 

[Legend5555]

Sorry everyone. I was feeling a little under the weather yesterday, so I spent most of the day in bed. Let's wrap this hand up!

So, Villain has bet $30 into $45.50, and we need to decide if now is the time to raise for value, or if we should flat here and let our ultra-aggressive opponent hang themselves on the river. By just flatting OOP, we do risk missing value should Villain only be barreling here, and there are a ton of worse hands that they could be doing so with. We could also potentially miss out on value if we decide to check-raise the turn if Villain has nothing and folds.

Hero decides to flat the $30, bringing the pot to $105.50, and we go to the river, which is the .

No flush draws got there, and only KQ and 89 got there to complete any straights.

We flatted the turn with the intention of checking any river card to see if Villain would barrel one more time, and the is a really good card for us because, if Villain is trying to push us off of a one-pair type of hand, this card doesn't kill our action in the way that another A or even a J would.

So Hero checks, and Villain overbets pretty huge, putting $206.50 into $105.50. Villain has just over ~$305 behind.

What is Hero's move?

Well... Is villain capable of barreling here with 89s or KQs no clubs? If not then there are only 2 combos of straights that get there. Would he bluff AcXc here? I'm not seeing many other bluffs. The only bluffs really seem to be backdoor clubs and a couple gutshots that paired the T.

From villain's POV, it looks an awful lot like we have an A. Dry flop call. Turn call. No raising. It looks a lot like we have what we have.

I mean there are certainly some bluffs here. I just think the river is a very underbluffed spot especially for a giant overbet. I think villain likely bets his entire range on that flip texture. So for Villain value I think all the sets are in play. AJ, AT, maybe AK (though I think that's an optimistic value overbet), 8c9c, KcQc. Would he play JT like this?

Tough spot. I tend to fold more often than call in these spots without some better info on villain's river tendencies. I just don't see people overbet bluff nearly often enough on the river.

 

[DrStrange]

Seems like a fine time to spring the trap, well maybe. There is a risk that the villain got lucky either flopping a set or somehow making a straight. But we know this villain has been feasting on fold equity. Hero's hand is badly under represented. Top two pair is a monster. Folding is not an option.

The question to consider is what hands will villain pay off? The pot would be just over $500 before Hero jams. Villain would owe $300 to try and win $1,100. Hero has no fold equity vs a villain holding better than top two pair. So Hero only benefits from villain calling with losing hands.

I have a hard time crediting villain with KQ or 89. Not impossible, but not likely. Sets on the other hand are plausible. But so are weaker two pair hands - AT and JT for sure. And we don't know that villain isn't an idiot who could call $300 more with just one pair.

I think I lean towards a jam. Risk $300 in hopes villain pays off more often than he somehow made a superior hand. Note that this is normally going to lead to folds from villain because villain's range is filled with air and shabby one pair (not only top pair) hands.

Go for the glory! -=- DrStrange

 

[trever]

You can't fold, the whole point of this line was to let villain bet himself into oblivion, he did the betting, now the only question is to call or raise.

I'm on board with the raise. We'll feel silly when he turns over the flopped set, but he will find it impossible to fold a worse two pair.

 

[chipsncoffee]

You can't fold, the whole point of this line was to let villain bet himself into oblivion, he did the betting, now the only question is to call or raise.

I'm on board with the raise. We'll feel silly when he turns over the flopped set, but he will find it impossible to fold a worse two pair.

I certainly agree that Villain will find it hard (or impossible) to fold a worse two pair, and may not even be capable of laying down AK in this spot, but do we really want to risk an additional 60BBs by raising here with what may very well be the best hand, but is certainly susceptible to being beat by a lot of combinations of other hands?

 

[chipsncoffee]

So, Villain bet $206.50 into $105.50, giving us pretty bad odds on a call here. We need to be correct ~65% of the time in this spot in order to make this call profitable.

Hero tanks for a minute, not thinking about folding, but rather whether we should raise or just call here. We land on a call and Villain turns up for absolute air. We scoop a pot of almost $520.

Maybe Hero chickened out a little by folding, but we did manage to get decent value for top two.

While I love the concept of overbetting, it’s tough being on the other side of it. It’s such a good way to create both a polarized and merged range.

 

[Legend5555]

So, Villain bet $206.50 into $105.50, giving us pretty bad odds on a call here. We need to be correct ~65% of the time in this spot in order to make this call profitable.

Hero tanks for a minute, not thinking about folding, but rather whether we should raise or just call here. We land on a call and Villain turns up for absolute air. We scoop a pot of almost $520.

Maybe Hero chickened out a little by folding, but we did manage to get decent value for top two.

While I love the concept of overbetting, it’s tough being on the other side of it. It’s such a good way to create both a polarized and merged range.

If I knew villain was capable of having total air as a double barrel, then I certainly would have said call in the river. If he can show up with hands like this, then he is way overbluffing and we can't really fold anything. I wonder if the villain did this because he has blockers to the straights, or just because.

Something I really should have considered and didn't was how close to the top of your range you probably are. The only big hands you can really have here are bottom and second set, AJ, and probably AT. Though by the river, I feel your range is pretty condensed. I don't think you are going to the river with stuff like 88 or 99. And you can't really have TT, JJ, AQ, or AK.

So are there any hands you get to the river with as played that you ever fold assuming the villain is not a total maniac?

 

[upNdown]

I don’t think I’m seeing monsters under the bed for only flatting here. Maybe I’ve been playing too much Omaha lately, but with 32 combinations of straights out there (all of which are believable with this villain, in my opinion) as well as all the sets, I would have flatted too.

 

[JustinInMN]

So, Villain bet $206.50 into $105.50, giving us pretty bad odds on a call here. We need to be correct ~65% of the time in this spot in order to make this call profitable.

Hero tanks for a minute, not thinking about folding, but rather whether we should raise or just call here. We land on a call and Villain turns up for absolute air. We scoop a pot of almost $520.

Maybe Hero chickened out a little by folding, but we did manage to get decent value for top two.

While I love the concept of overbetting, it’s tough being on the other side of it. It’s such a good way to create both a polarized and merged range.

I like that you landed on a call here, at the risk of being results oriented, if he has enough bluffs in his range to call, (Which I think is the correct thinking and given the actual showdown, he has more bluffs here than you would ever expect) you are often taking this extra risk for no reward unless you happen to catch villain with a weaker aces-up.

 

[chipsncoffee]

I like that you landed on a call here, at the risk of being results oriented, if he has enough bluffs in his range to call, (Which I think is the correct thinking and given the actual showdown, he has more bluffs here than you would ever expect) you are often taking this extra risk for no reward unless you happen to catch villain with a weaker aces-up.

That was definitely in my thought process as well. If we shove here with top two, we're definitely ahead of a villain this aggressive a lot of the time, but I think that we're risking more in most spots than we're being rewarded. On this type of board texture, very few worse hands are calling a shove for $300 more, but every better hand is absolutely calling.