perfectjawnz
Pair
I agree with the first 3 points, I will say raising as a "semi" bluff OTT is probably the most bluffed street on wet/ draw heavy boards. if the texture calls for it, turn overbets into river jams can make sense.-raising as a bluff on the turn is just not something people do very often. Good players know this and will not think "must be a bluff". Over pot bluffs are mostly a river thing.
What are we left with? A sneaky KK (very doubtful) that beats us and some weird 5x hands that is almost as unlikely.
Think AT93 2 toned UTG vs BB SRP, standard utg cbet otf. Can overbet with FD, SD, sets, AT and BB should have enough that connects with the board (2pair, middle sets, crazy number of straight draws and middling flushes).