... By the way, I wouldn't be so quick to label button as LAG. Looks more passive to me judging by a single hand. We would benefit from knowing more about Hero's post flop image. Does he bet pot with AK? Does he c-bet at all with AK?
First of all, thank you for a thoughtful and insightful response. This is the kind of analysis I was hoping for.
Button and BB are both willing to play a very wide opening range (I've seen BB call w/ 72o in position with a stiff raise and multiple callers in front). Both seem happy to let someone OOP lead the betting if they think their opponent is ahead, but if they catch a real hand or sense any weakness, then a raise, re-raise or 4-bet are certainly possible (or probable).
Hero if anything is probably viewed a tight player, verging on nit. I will sometimes use position and tight image to steal pots, but have also have gone 2 hours without playing a hand at times (I was so card dead at the time against good post-flop players that waiting for better cards seemed a better option than bluffing away my stack). Post flop I will definitely c-bet (usually 1/2 - 2/3 pot) with AK, but try to maintain a bit of pot control depending on the board texture.
We don't know much about Hero's post flop play. But if he is aggressive, this bet will have a lot of air in it. Could be hero has a betting tell where villain could know Hero has a made hand. In general vs a capable short handed TAG, this C-bet should be floated. Villain has top pair plus some backdoor draws. Can't find much to fault. Again, villain might find a raise here, but didn't.
Hero's image is probably that a pot size bet means a reasonably good holding, almost never air. I spoke with villain later and he told me he had me on an over-pair here.
Turn - hero jams all in. Villain snap calls with a pair plus draws. Villain likely has 17 outs - nine flushing, three gut shot, three sixes and two sevens. And that only if Hero isn't bluffing. It seems to me villain has plenty good odds here. This was not a mistake, not even a hard decision.
Yeah, I didn't really put him on 56s. I knew he probably had a draw of some sort and a pair, but I didn't anticipate that many outs. I wanted to make him go away, or at the very least make him pay for the draw. I guess I accomplished the latter.
... I wonder about a macro mistake. This is short handed poker. Everyone should be making adjustments and expanding hand ranges.
... I wonder if Hero has betting tells? Betting big with made hands, c-betting / bluffing with smaller bets. it looks a bit fishy, especially on the flop. .... Hero should be trying to make his air look like his made hands.
Good points, ones I'll take to the bank.
Regarding bet sizing, I'm usually pretty consistent with same size bets of 3 BB (plus more for limpers) pre, 2/3 pot post. This was the first time betting larger than that in many games, and I thought that it would represent a strong holding. But yeah, I'll take a look at that more closely.
I'm not sure if KK was air, even though it didn't hit the flop. I was pretty much representing a big pair or a small set (there is no way given the pre-flop bet that anyone at the table would expect me to be holding two small pair), and that is pretty much what the Villain put me on. He knew he was behind, he knew he had outs, he chose to follow despite fairly substantial bets. If I could have done something different, I'd sincerely like to know what. (I know, Variance is a bitch, but this seems like something else - more like a learning opportunity)
I definitely get your message about expanding ranges short handed. Not sure how I would have played it a whole lot differently knowing that he might have had 6c7c in his range on the flop, except perhaps jamming then instead of the turn.
Once again, thanks for the analysis. Much appreciated! (and anyone else that wants to jump in here with their thoughts, c'mon in, the water's fine!)
