Pocket 9s in the C-O against arch nemesis on the button (1 Viewer)

[moojersey]

I guess we have to think about what is he 3 betting us with pre-flop that we can beat. Mostly AA and KK I think. I don't think he's jamming those now.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I don't think I'm ever folding this in specifically a rebuy tournament.

In a freezeout against a rock? Sure, I'd min-reraise his raise on the turn and force him to define his hand. But early in a rebuy tournament, I just don't think you can count on even a TAG to be holding the very top of his range based on mere raises. Let's also not forget that we never forced him to respond to anything stronger than a simple donk-bet (and one of them was less than half the pot).

Those 2.5× raises do reek, though. Plus there's the fact that OP chose to write a post about what otherwise looks like an easy-to-play hand.

 

[doakwolf]

Let's also not forget that we never forced him to respond to anything stronger than a simple donk-bet (and one of them was less than half the pot).

Those 2.5× raises do reek, though. Plus there's the fact that OP chose to write a post about what otherwise looks like an easy-to-play hand.

Exactly! I'm here to learn how to minimise losses and maximise wins. To me, this is not that easy of a hand to play. This thread has already greatly helped me see multiple flaws in my NL play!

====

Well, old mate drunken Hero goes ahead and drops (donks?! haha) $3000 into the middle. Villain fondles some chips before pushing out his 2x $5k plaques for a $7k raise.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Exactly! I'm here to learn how to minimise losses and maximise wins. To me, this is not that easy of a hand to play. This thread has already greatly helped me see multiple flaws in my NL play!

====

Well, old mate drunken Hero goes ahead and drops (donks?! haha) $3000 into the middle. Villain fondles some chips before pushing out his 2x $5k plaques for a $7k raise.

Ugh. This continues to reek, but we still need to consider more possibilities than simply being beat:

• QQ or 77: These are the only hands that beat us. The action so far would be consistent with both. Obviously they're raising.
  
• TJ: This is weird but possible, especially given Villain's turn raise in a spot where a TAG would often be conservative about the obvious draw coming in. Given our awkward and sorta weak-looking action, if he has the straight, he could easily still think it's good for a raise on the end.
  
• 88: If he could have 77, he could have 88. A medium pair wouldn't be terribly inconsistent with the preflop action, and it would be very consistent with the flop and turn action. A min-reraise in position does not mean we should automatically narrow him down to really big openers. Any reasonable player would probably raise 8s full on the end here.
  
• AA/KK/AQ: These are very marginally possible if he convinced himself early on that we're playing a queen in a silly way. This river raise would be bizarre with these hands, though, so I'm going to err on the conservative side and ignore them.

There's 1 way he could have 77, plus 3 ways he could have QQ, for 4 total hands in his range that beat us. There are 3 ways he could have 88 and 16 ways he could have TJ, which tilts this way in favor of a call.

But it's still a call even if we assume a more conservative range that doesn't include TJ (or limit it to suited TJ, 4 possibilities), because he's 4:3 (or 8:3) to have a hand that beats us, and the call is laying us 13,700:7,000, very nearly 2:1. We'll still have over $6K left, so shoving to get the rebuy if we lose would be silly.

Call, but prepare to puke pretty often.

 

[BGinGA]

Shove. Massive stack or re-buy. I'm guessing the former.

 

[stocky]

Shove. Massive stack or re-buy. I'm guessing the former.

By my rough count we've invested 6250 from our 20k stack. Leaving us with 13750ish. Still a very playable stack if we fold here.

In this spot I'm never flatting for the exact reason BG said. We call and lose we are left with just over 6k which will be pretty short compared to the rest of the table.

If I'm willing to rebuy I'm jamming and rebuying if needed or playing a massive stack.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Jam he's way more likely to have AA or KK (12 instances) than QQ or 77 (4 instances). If he has you beat, c'est la vie.

 

[doakwolf]

I'm finding it more interesting that I labelled Hero a LAG because in this hand, he tanked for a little while, fearing the queens but deciding $6k was enough to survive on just made the call.

I wish I'd shoved for the reasons BG and stocky mentioned. I think it was definitely the right move here considering the willingness to re-buy.

Villain does as expected and slow rolls, first turning over ...

Spoiler: Followed by...

The Bitch of Spades

I still wish I shoved!

I hope this hasn't been a boring hand with a boring end... It's just another one of those hands I've found myself pondering days after the game and am fascinated to learn how others would play it based on the information provided. My tourney play has been quite bad lately and I'm keen to improve. I'm waiting for the invite from stocky now that he knows what a donk I am! haha free money

That said, my biggest challenge is probably too much to drink causing thoughtless actions. I love the way you guys all stop to think about and assess each possibility. I need to take this to the table. Do people actually do this after a bunch of beers in the real world environment?

Anyway, I decided to try and grind this one out (no re-buy) but failed miserably. Can't remember what happened. Started up a PLH side game (Villain promptly labelled this the "Kiddies table" ) and won back my tourney buy-in (y) :thumbsup:

 

[stocky]

Pretty much always going broke set vs set.

Also always welcome here if I ever get a game going or we just organize an Aussie meat up.

 

[DrStrange]

Hope you didn't show that hand, if it was avoidable. There is a lot of unwanted information showing that hand to observant players.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm finding it more interesting that I labelled Hero a LAG because in this hand, he tanked for a little while, fearing the queens but deciding $6k was enough to survive on just made the call.

I wish I'd shoved for the reasons BG and stocky mentioned. I think it was definitely the right move here considering the willingness to re-buy.

I still think the call was right. Having only $6K left doesn't mean it's worth blowing it just so you can double your tournament investment to get back to a starting stack. A $6K stack would still be 120 BB, quite playable, especially if the rebuy period will still be open for a while. I'd only lean toward the shove if you'd be looking at an extremely short stack. Even then, you can always gamble it up until you're busto or build it back up quickly. I think that's a better option than simply throwing it away when you expect to lose.

That said, my biggest challenge is probably too much to drink causing thoughtless actions.

Drinking at a game among friends is fine, but it's true that you'll make more mistakes and won't necessarily think through your actions as much as you should. It's a give and take. Drinking excessively obviously limits your potential a lot.

I love the way you guys all stop to think about and assess each possibility. I need to take this to the table.

I can only speak for myself, but it's rare that I have the opportunity to analyze a hand in detail like this while I'm in the action. There isn't usually time to do this kind of thought and calculation mid-hand. I often have to fall back on rough estimates, previous hands I've played, analyses away from the table, and general poker sense. Experience is invaluable. Having quick, accurate proportional reasoning is very helpful too.

Anyway, I decided to try and grind this one out (no re-buy) but failed miserably. Can't remember what happened. Started up a PLH side game (Villain promptly labelled this the "Kiddies table" ) and won back my tourney buy-in (y) :thumbsup:

Interesting choice of game. Any particular reason you opted for PL over NL?

 

[Ben]

Leading every street and getting raised all 3 times is pretty sick - on a very good day I might find a fold on the river (villain has JT 0% of the time, 88 0% of the time - maybe there's a universe where he shows up very rarely with 97, Q7, AA, or KK, but I'm still highly skeptical of it's existence.) My stack would have been all-in on the turn though, so any hypothetical hero-folds on the river are moot - I'm broke.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Leading every street and getting raised all 3 times is pretty sick - on a very good day I might find a fold on the river (villain has JT 0% of the time, 88 0% of the time - maybe there's a universe where he shows up very rarely with 97, Q7, AA, or KK, but I'm still highly skeptical of it's existence.) My stack would have been all-in on the turn though, so any hypothetical hero-folds on the river are moot - I'm broke.

The one spot where I might be able to fold is the turn. Villain raises to $2.5K over $1K, and a min-reraise to $4k should look strong enough that I can muck if he comes over the top. If I can strictly rule out TJ, I can even fold if he min-reraises. Maybe. But I gotta know he doesn't have 77 or 88, which is tough to rule out.

Really, though, I'd need to know Villain's tendencies pretty well to fold a safe-looking second set like this one. Against a random or relatively unknown player, it's hard to give that much credit. Even against a known player, in a rebuy tournament, it's tough. People often get way out of line when they can rebuy.

 

[doakwolf]

Hope you didn't show that hand...

Well there's mistake #6 by Hero on this hand? I've lost count

Interesting choice of game. Any particular reason you opted for PL over NL?

Our crowd tend to keep cash games to PL to keep things more friendly. We rarely play anything but Hold'em so switching from NL is another way to change things up a bit. I play tend to play far better at PL too. Based on results.

 

[DrStrange]

Try putting yourself in villain's place and guess what he thinks Hero holds. Remember, it is a range of hands not just one in specific. Go though each betting decision and see where it leads you.

The discord (if any) between what villain thought about Hero's hand and Hero's actual hand is the information you hide by mucking rather than showing the bad beat.

 

[guinness]

@guinness I feel like you'd have something smart to say here.

In all honesty I've been writing PHP code for 2 days straight and only responding to your ping. I offer nothing.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

This is my first attempt at such a post. I've been reading DrStrange's for a while now so I hope I get this right. I'm also on the other side of the world from most so there may be delays

====

Playing the semi-regular NLH deep stack tourney with friends & starting stacks of 20k.

We're still in the first round with blinds at 25/50 - increasing next hand.

So far hero has won many small pots by bluffing at flops against weak players. Nothing huge yet but confidence is high.

Hero is a definite LAG lately. He's mostly there for the chips, the company and lots of fun. Drinking began hours before the game because the host wanted help emptying the fridge (wedding leftovers) and hero considers himself a professional drinker so is happy to oblige.

Villain is mostly sober sitting to hero's immediate left & is almost always hero's arch nemesis. Plenty of smack talk via group email leading up to the game and heaps of banter during play. Villain is a TAG with a recent gain in confidence at the table and some big wins under his belt lately. He's learned how to read people (and hands) quite well.

(Only notable hand prior - Hero and villain both flopped top pair and betting is mild/aggressive. Villain won this battle with a kicker vs hero's kicker. It hurt a little bit but revenge will be sweet)

Hero is sitting in the C-O with a touch over $20k after the above loss and is dealt . With nothing but 2 limp-ins around the table, hero raises to $150.

Villain snap re-raises to $250. All other's fold, action on hero. This pre-flop scenario reminds him of the (recent) previously lost hand but with slightly larger raises this time.

Fold, call or re-raise (how much)?

Not sure if results have been posted. Will start with pre flop.

Against anyone else it's a pretty standard flat.

If you really have that much history, and anticipate years of future action with V, I think this is a neat spot to 4b. Stacks are plenty deep that even a decent 4b won't be a huge hit to your stack if V 5b and you fold. If he folds I'm showing; Showing that you can turn up in a 4b pot OOP w/99 is going to stick with most thinking V for a long time and could pay dividends for you later. If he 5b I'm folding. You're also protecting your 4b range so it's not weighted 100% towards AA/KK like most players.

Also, flatting 3b OOP with a mid PP against a decent V is a long term losing proposition, IMO. Flatting caps your range and makes it difficult to represent many boards. Our hand isn't likely to flop a draw, opponent is going to cbet most boards after 3b in position, and most the time we'll be c/f or c/c with an underpair to the board. I'd prefer to 4b light with a hand that has either decent barreling equity like a SC or a blocker with something like K7s/A5s, but against my nemesis I'm having some fun.

That being said, I think a call is just fine too.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Nor is hero! Definitely a better cash game player. I should also point out, hero is also very happy to re-buy. History shows an early bust-out and re-buy helps his tourney results by encouraging him to settle and grind (we usually offer only one re-buy per person).

I'm guessing most PCF members are in bed asleep now but since there really isn't anything juicy happening in this hand yet I'll confirm the obvious...

Hero calls putting villain on perhaps , maybe as low as . Possibly rags, playing a purely mental game... Villain's game is becoming more and more advanced each game and he doesn't give away much in the way of tells. Hero wonders if he bought some poker books from Puggy. That said, hero isn't thinking too much about looking for tells at this game - he's more interested in the chips and the free beer.

Flop comes and hero is first to act with ~675 in the pot.

Check or bet (how much)?

I'm probably liking a check with the intent to check raise. If V flats our raise we can pretty solidly put him on AA, KK,JJ down to maybe 88 with the bottom of his calling range being AK, maybe with the BDFD? (I think V is a bit wider than just JJ+ here, but just going off my games TAG BTN ranges) Then I'm probably check shoving turn or river. If our c/r is 3b, I'm calling and revaluating on the turn as most TAGS aren't doing that with less than a set, since our c/r looks so strong.

By donking into this board, if opponent is good, I think we fold out the bottom of his cbet range (88, AKo, etc) that we could have gotten value from.

Check.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Went ahead and read results, I think you played it just fine. I might have shoved turn just because the board got pretty wet; want to charge that BDFD if V was floating around w AcKc or has AcQc. Also would hate to see a T or J as V could have either JJ/TT and have his straight or bigger set get there.

 

[DrStrange]

So let's sit in villain's seat for a moment.

Preflop - Semidrunk LAG makes a preflop raise with a top 40% hand (22+, A2o+, any two face cards, any two marginally connected suited cards plus some random garbage) Villain with premium cards 3-bets and Hero calls. So maybe Hero doesn't have a "real" hand as often as he might but the full range of dodgy hands is still in play.

I do not suggest villains min raise line. That was stupid in that villain gives away information about his hand without learning much of anything about Hero's hand. A 20% pot sized raise doesn't narrow the field much either, all of whom now have a fair read on villain's hand.

Flop - Hero bets 400 into a 675 pot (60%) No flush draw to worry about for now, but a wide array of straight draws. Let's range Hero with any pair 7x or higher plus all sorts of draws. Villain has a dilemma to ponder. Does he play Hero for having a drawing hand and try to extract a cost to draw or does he play hero for a "one pair" hand which is drawing close to dead? Villain elects to raise small - 600 raise into a 1,475 pot (40%). I'd say he is playing Hero as if his range is mostly bad draws and one pair hands.

Hero's bet call tends to confirm villain's read. Hero's hand is drawing or a weak one pair hand.

Again, I have doubts about villain's bet sizing. But perhaps he knows Hero well, since Hero was already wanting to put villain on a missed ace-high hand.

Turn - Hero bets 1,000 into a 2,175 pot (46%) Looks blocking rather than strong, though that turn card is a danger card for sure. Yet again villain raises small, 1,500 into a 4,175 pot.(32%) and Hero just calls. By now we can rule out the worst of the one pair hands. Villain likely thinks hero is holding Qx, 9x, and a host of upgraded drawing hands (upgraded because they now are pair + draw hands.) Villain is going to want to puke on a bad river card, even holding top set will not feel so good if there is 4-to-a-straight on the board.

RIver - Hero bets 3,000 into a 7,175 pot (42%). Now villain might range Hero this way, trip sevens, Qx (blocking), busted draw bluff. Villain raises 7,000 into a 13,175 pot (53%) which is what he expects Hero will pay holding top pair.

Never in a million years does Villain think Hero holds the third nut hand. He is expecting a hand like KQ/QJ/QT more than anything else. Hero has taken a weakly aggressive line, having bet every street but always bet/call. Villain has been able to milk Hero quite effectively, in large part because Hero's hand is far far better than villain dreams. I would love to see the same hand play out when Hero holds something like QJ or A7 to see if anything changes or if Hero follows a similar line with very different cards.

So hero gave up a massive piece of information about how he plays his big hands by showing the bad beat. It was arguably the worst decision in the hand. But I bet it was fun to show the hand.

Thanks for sharing! -=- DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Never in a million years does Villain think Hero holds the third nut hand. He is expecting a hand like KQ/QJ/QT more than anything else. Hero has taken a weakly aggressive line, having bet every street but always bet/call. Villain has been able to milk Hero quite effectively, in large part because Hero's hand is far far better than villain dreams. I would love to see the same hand play out when Hero holds something like QJ or A7 to see if anything changes or if Hero follows a similar line with very different cards.

And this is the picture I would want to paint, so we can hopefully trick Villain into going way too far with an overpair or TPTK—arguably his best possible holdings that don't beat us when we want action with second set.

Unfortunately, set over set occasionally happens. With a range of AA/KK/QQ/AQ on that flop, Villain is 24:3 = 8:1 against having the set, so it's proper to proceed on a trapping line.

Also unfortunately, Hero never springs the trap, and thus never gets to see how Villain responds to the trap. There was an ideal point for this to happen, and Hero didn't even seem to think it was a decision point. If Villain was truly AA/KK/QQ/AQ on the flop, his response to a small reraise on that turn could easily turn his hand face-up.

OP: Why was the response to the 2,500/1,000 raise on the turn such a non-decision for you? Given a board of , what hand or hands would you ever reraise in this kind of spot?

 

[doakwolf]

@DrStrange thank you for this analysis. What may seem obvious to some is not to others. As I said, I'm here for the chips and the beer and the poker just happens. I have a few books about poker but have never been a great reader (it doesn't absorb well) so analyzing real life scenarios is the best way for me to learn. I really appreciate your input, and everyone else's!

@Jimulacrum - truth be told, I'm unsure. To be clear, are you asking why I didn't re-raise at this point? I remember feeling that Villain was holding AQ here. At the time I probably figured a re-raise or shove would fold him out. The truth is, I don't really know and that's why I posted this hand

I'm keen to learn to put some of these thoughts to practice at the next game.

 

[DrStrange]

My review is hampered by my cash game perspective. It could be the tournament players see each step of the hand differently.

 

[dickzapper]

Ugh Texas is such a BS game. If I busted out in Omaha on a seemingly identical hand I wouldn't feel so bad. But in Texas: what a load of shit. Like getting shot in the chest.

Played a local tourn on Monday where a flat-cap-wearing old man went all-in in the CO when folded around to him. Folds around to me in the BB and I'm holding and I have him covered by less than 1 SB. Two minute think, I call and he flips .

Oh man what a genius call.

Ugh, but don't matter cause a ten is coming on the river, can feel it.

and fuck this game, play me in PLO8 u old-ass-union-fuck, prob hiding cards under ur hat anyway sausage-eating-bastard, wifes tomato sauce prob tastes like fucking ketchup anyway

Didn't say any of that, just put my sweatshirt on and was all in in the SB with .

 

[Jimulacrum]

@Jimulacrum - truth be told, I'm unsure. To be clear, are you asking why I didn't re-raise at this point? I remember feeling that Villain was holding AQ here. At the time I probably figured a re-raise or shove would fold him out. The truth is, I don't really know and that's why I posted this hand

I've found that my biggest mistakes in big-bet poker often happen when I get flustered by a move I didn't expect. Villain's raise on the turn certainly would've taken me by surprise too. It was a weird-sized raise in a spot where we were expecting his confidence in a top-pair or overpair hand to shrink, not grow.

Spots like that are the ones you should be analyzing most closely. They're the spots where you have the most potential to gain information and make your future decisions much clearer. Sometimes even a small raise can tell you a lot.