Pocket Jacks in the Big Blind (1 Viewer)

[Mr Tree]

There are two other players at the table who know what "range" is and actually use that information - MP2 and Crafty. Crazy Jr. doesn't think much about ranges, image, what someone else might be representing.

DrStrange

I don't think Crazy is thinking about range. If Crazy isn't normally the type to jam a 4th bet in light then this is a strong indicator he is ready to go.

Honestly at this point I feel like this is an instafold for me, but your threads are usually pretty deep so I'm afraid I am missing something.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I agree, folding is the best option. When talkative people suddenly go quiet, its a big tell they have a monster hand. As is four betting $100 over the top of the tightest player at the table.

 

[Jimulacrum]

*** OK, Now what? ***

Hero 3-bets, $50 on top or $62 all day. ($50 raise into a $61 pot.)

Crazy Jr 4-bets, $100 on top or $162 all day. The rest of the table folds.

Action on Hero, fold, call or raise?

Table read: Crazy Jr has gone silent. Normally he is yabbering almost non-stop but not now. Make of that what you will.

DrStrange

Fold. This is one of the reasons why we shouldn't reraise. We had this sweet little $10 set-mining opportunity, but paid $62 to get blown out of the pot instead.

 

[MegaTon44]

I initially felt like the obvious option was folding, especially with the 4-bet UTG in position and the sudden silence. However, I can't shake the fact that he may be thinking his 4-bet could steal it because hero was holding the lower end of a tier 1 hand. Anyone else think that a jam bet could take it?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Anyone else think that a jam bet could take it?

If Villian is bluffing? Sure. If villain isn't bluffing, no. FWIW, I don't think Villian is bluffing enough of the time to make the shove here profitable long-term

 

[MegaTon44]

If Villian is bluffing? Sure. If villain isn't bluffing, no. FWIW, I don't think Villian is bluffing enough of the time to make the shove here profitable long-term

Completely sound logic and most likely the correct move (short and long term). Personally, I know I would fold if I were in hero's shoes. Though I don't know villain or his style, it just seems like he is comfortable in his banter, for good or bad. However, for this play, he goes silent. Typically a sign of strength, but I can't help but think maybe he is uncomfortable with the play he just made.

 

[DrStrange]

Jamming creates a RIO problem - Hero wins $250 if villain folds but is risking $440. That was my thought at the table.

It isn't horrible as it seems though. Hero has a negative $210 EV vs an over pair and a positive $180 EV vs a big ace, If we think villain's range is QQ+, AK then Hero's EV for a shove is -$26. This villian just isn't folding here - I'd rate fold equity near to zero. But I also wouldn't be astonished to see some silly hand calling it down for $500, villain has done that in the past.

I guess it depends on how we range villain and if he would play AK for stacks.

 

[kirchhausen]

Anyone else think that a jam bet could take it?

You bet for two reasons, to get better hands to fold or worse hands to call. Crazy is never folding better than QQ here, so a bluff is out of the question. Similarly, there are very few worse hands Crazy has in this spot that he would call with, maybe AK exactly and even that hand is only marginally worse.

I think Jamming here is no good. Time to fold.

 

[MegaTon44]

Jamming creates a RIO problem - Hero wins $250 if villain folds but is risking $440. That was my thought at the table.

It isn't horrible as it seems though. Hero has a negative $210 EV vs an over pair and a positive $180 EV vs a big ace, If we think villain's range is QQ+, AK then Hero's EV for a shove is -$26. This villian just isn't folding here - I'd rate fold equity near to zero. But I also wouldn't be astonished to see some silly hand calling it down for $500, villain has done that in the past.

I guess it depends on how we range villain and if he would play AK for stacks.

Thanks for clarifying. The thought related to making a hero call operated under the assumption that fold equity was more favorable given the psychology of the villain and past betting behavior. However, if you describe fold equity being negligible, it would be nothing more than fleeting thought before mucking the hand.

 

[DrStrange]

I bungled the math.

There is $61 + $50 + $150 in the pot. Hero wins $261 if villain folds to a jam.

Hero has $500 - $62 = $438 left behind but owes $100 to catch up (my error) So the all-in pot is $261 + $100(hero matches villain's bet) + $338 X 2 = $1,037

-$230 ev vs overpair; +$145 ev vs AK -----> overall ev -$53.

That might not seem like a huge amount but reletive to a $1/$2 session it is a major error.

 

[Jimulacrum]

There are a couple alternate plays that could be profitable if Crazy Jr is bluffing.

1. You could use your bad position to your advantage by flatting the 4-bet with a plan to shove any flop with no jacks (but trap if you spike a jack). If his weak hand totally misses the flop, he'll fold. If he catches a small piece (say, an underpair to JJ), he may pay you off. And if he has QQ or KK, he may even fold if an overcard flops.

2. You could also go sticky and check-call all rounds, which will stack him the times he tries to multi-barrel bluff and fails to improve, but you'll lose out on all fold equity with this plan.

But I don't think this line has that many bluffs in it. Crazy Jr didn't just 4-bet you. He 4-bet your strong-looking reraise and 3 other players who initially called his raise. His range probably doesn't include many blufffs, and you're getting stacked the vast majority of the time if he has you beat.

 

[bergs]

True, but look at it this way:

Our odds of flopping a set are 1 time out of every 8 flops. So that means 7 flops we'll miss hitting our set. I just think the informational value of seeing if we're four-bet outweighs the potential of hitting a set and getting paid off by an overpair.

FWIW, if you min 3-bet, I'm 4-betting you with ATC out of spite and malice.

 

[Anthony Martino]

FWIW, if you min 3-bet, I'm 4-betting you with ATC out of spite and malice.

I wasn't told you were at the table.....

 

[bergs]

I wasn't told you were at the table.....

If you can't see the drunken maniac swearing like a sailor and looking for an excuse to 4 bet pre with rags and smash the flop, then you are the drunken mani--actually, wait, no you're not...you're a limit O8 nit who relocated to Florida. Forget it. Wrong thread.

 

[DrStrange]

I expect Villain would call an all-in from Hero with Q4o. Wait, I know this because it has happened for roughly these sized stacks. (we learned that AA < Q4o occastionally) No need for fancy plays, Crazy Jr is here to gamble and isn't worried about getting stacked.

DrStrange

 

[Anthony Martino]

...you're a limit O8 nit who relocated to Florida.

I developed an appreciation for PLO, PLO8, Double Board PLO, Scrotum, etc. at the Suicide Queen Melee. Looking forward to the Shootout @ The Post.

 

[bergs]

I expect Villain would call an all-in from Hero with Q4o. Wait, I know this because it has happened for roughly these sized stacks. (we learned that AA < Q4o occastionally) No need for fancy plays, Crazy Jr is here to gamble and isn't worried about getting stacked.

DrStrange

If that's truly the case, you should be jamming HU with him with anything better than Q8o. But, like Guinness told me once, there is equity, and then there is sweet luscious equity, and you're only getting meh equity if you jam here. Fold and wait for a better spot.

 

[jbutler]

I fucking hate this thread. Mostly because I'm 90% that Doc made the right fold and therefore we're unlikely to ever know villain's hand.

Please be wrong.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero folds. Villain shows a black king and claimed pocket kings but we have no reason to think his hand wasn't AK instead. (Or for that matter K4 except Crazy Jr would really want to show the bluff.)

I saw two things that bothered me about the hand when I reviewed the session next day. Hero bungled the decision to raise rather than flat. The stacks are too deep and pocket jacks too fragile to put a $500 stack at risk. The set mining play is rock solid profitable. Hero's raise needs to be even more profitable than set mining - and it isn't.

Hero should have though a bit longer and did the math before folding. We don't have to put many junk hands in villain's range for a jam to be profitable. It is still a fold, but Hero didn't do due dilligance before tossing his hand.

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

*** Results ***

Hero folds. Villain shows a black king and claimed pocket kings but we have no reason to think his hand wasn't AK instead. (Or for that matter K4 except Crazy Jr would really want to show the bluff.)

I saw two things that bothered me about the hand when I reviewed the session next day. Hero bungled the decision to raise rather than flat. The stacks are too deep and pocket jacks too fragile to put a $500 stack at risk. The set mining play is rock solid profitable. Hero's raise needs to be even more profitable than set mining - and it isn't.

Hero should have though a bit longer and did the math before folding. We don't have to put many junk hands in villain's range for a jam to be profitable. It is still a fold, but Hero didn't do due dilligance before tossing his hand.

DrStrange

This is a good example of why I prefer deep-stack poker to short-stack poker by a long shot.

Any fool can play short-stack NLHE with a simple preflop TAG strategy and eke out a profit. It doesn't require a whole lot of thought or planning, and it's not very interesting either. You just have to be patient and able to recognize the top several hands of a small hierarchy. This is probably a major reason why tournaments appeal to recreational players.

With deeper stacks, that approach is doomed in the long term. Position becomes way more important, and there's far too much action left after the flop to get over-invested with big pocket pairs. A table with even a couple decent post-flop players will eat this previously successful player alive.

I should know; this was part of my learning curve. I used to be that preflop TAG who'd come to $1/$2 with a short stack. I'd even do pretty well, right up until stacks got 200 BB or deeper, at which point the more experienced players would put on their bibs and prepare to feast.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Hero should have though a bit longer and did the math before folding. We don't have to put many junk hands in villain's range for a jam to be profitable. It is still a fold, but Hero didn't do due dilligance before tossing his hand.

DrStrange

I greatly respect your insight, so what do you think about my idea to min re-raise in your spot against this lineup of opponents? Do you feel that Crazy would just 4-bet ATC against you there? Do you see any value in the move (i.e. gaining information regarding a 4-bet since your opponents "rarely" do that)?

I guess my thinking was that given the information you provided, you making that sort of raise would catch your opponents off-guard since it's out of character. And thus if we are 4-bet we can generally be more certain that we're up against a better hand and get away from it.

As an example, if you flat-call and the flop is 26T or 553 and you've got JJ and he's got KK, how much more are you losing that perhaps you save my expending the extra 10 bucks preflop to encourage your opponents to react and thus provide more info allowing you to dump your hand? Or does the potential to stack your opponent if you hit your set make the flat call the better play from an expected value standpoint?

 

[DrStrange]

That type of bet (a min raise) is quite common in this game. It is not considered strong - it is a pot builder bet. No one will fold to the raise, most will call and a few would raise. The tricky/trapy ones aren't going to show their trap so early for a small bet.

There is no telling what Crazy Jr (or the original Crazy) might do, but I would be reluctant to draw strong conclusions from their choices. A 4-bet under those circumstances is not the same as a $100 4-bet. This guy has been open raising $35 after all. There will be some "spite" raises. Perhaps not like Bergs' frequency, but sometimes.

If Hero set mines with jacks, he will be disiplined and be highly inclined to fold an overpair. Bad possition + deeper stacks is a toxic combination. So, the set mining plan doesn't benefit much from gathering information - flop a set, go to war; miss the flop, look for a reason to fold.

Hero is creating a low SPR situation with a min-raise. $121 in the pot, Hero has $476 behind. SPR < 4. I think the idea has some creative merit, but I am not sure if the "costs" are worth the information gained. The big cost of a min raise is it reopens the betting for a player holding a big pair. Hero could have set mined and perhaps trapped the overpair for stacks. If Hero gets blown off the hand the opportunity is lost.

The information gained isn't worth much to me because I intend to give up on this hand if I miss. Other players who might fight post flop with an overpair could feel differently.

 

[bergs]

I just wanted to add that I love spite raises. One of my favorite Foxwoods hands was 1/2 and I was somewhere in the blinds. Guy made it $5 per and someone else raised to $12. I made it $20 with 56o and made a joke about limit poker. Original raised made it $30 (4 bet!) and MP made it $100. I had no choice but to 6 bet Preflop and shoved. First raiser called with 88, second raise called with AA. Flop 789, turn T, river brick. AA slams his hand down, and before I can roll original raiser shows 88 and yells "Ship it!". I roll my hand and ask "How can you call my 6 bet pre, I showed so much strength there". I win all the things, they leave, table breaks. Beautiful night.

Cliffs - if you 6 bet preflop, mathematically, you cannot lose.

 

[CHP TD]

have you seen the you tube video how to play jacks?

sadly they dont play well post flop. if i remember correctly there is a 60% chance there will be an overcard on the flop. (can someome connfirm) so what dod you do? lots of pre flop action and an more than likely chance of an overcard on flop.

tricky position. i dont like it but i also dont think im capable of folding PF to the raise. Moreover there are some crazies at the table.

Darn very tricky but ive heard that there are 3 ways to play jacks and they are all wrong. I tend to believe in that.