Pocket Jacks in the Hard Rock 30k Guaranteed (2 Viewers)

[Anthony Martino]

$250 buyin tourney with 30 minute levels, 30K starting stack and 30K guaranteed prize pool.

Level 6 - blinds 300/600 with a 75 ante

Hero has been running pretty well in betting other players off pots to chip up, raising a bit more than fair share. Stack is 55K

Folded to Hero in MP with and Hero raises to 2K

Hijack shoves for 9400
- Hijack has been playing very loose and trying to bluff too often, usually with bottom or middle pair and getting picked off-

Cutoff shoves for 7200
- Cutoff has shown down a few decent hands, but has also been a bit of a station and been in pots with some questionable holdings-

BB asks how much the other two players are all-in for, then reshoves for 22K
- BB has been fairly snug, playing TAG and not getting out of line. Only has bigger chips left because he hasn't been winning pots for a bit-

What does Hero do with Jacks here?

 

[krafticus]

Insta-sigh, think for 3 seconds, and fold.

 

[CraigT78]

I'll preface this with I'm not very good, but if I am last to act and there are 3 players all in - I'm calling here.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I'll preface this with I'm not very good, but if I am last to act and there are 3 players all in - I'm calling here.

Yes, Hero is closing the action, no additional action after Hero

 

[upNdown]

If you’re last to act here, I think you have to call another 20k, don’t you?
Edit - okay, yeah you are last to act
I dunno, this is where my gut says to go for it, because worst case scenario, you’re still sitting in 30k. And my brain says to fold because you’ve got to be behind something here, almost definitely the big blind.
Ugh.
I’d probably tank for a while and find a fold.

 

[CraigT78]

Yes, Hero is closing the action, no additional action after Hero

Probably my biggest leak, but I'm gambling here with the chance to knock out 3 players. I tend to over value my hands.

 

[kmccormick100]

Three shoves in front of me? Fold.

You’ve got almost 100bb, pick a better spot. Absolutely best case scenario is you’re up against AK, AQ and maybe an under pair or two. Against 3 players you’ve maybe got ~30% equity and a lot of cards to dodge.

If you’re being results oriented and your jacks would have won, get over it and move on, you didn’t lose much and there will be many better +EV spots.

 

[Frogzilla]

Tough spot. I’d probably call. With QQ would definitely call

 

[DrStrange]

I think a fold is best. It isn't completely obvious though.

Hero's M is 30+, there isn't a reason to be looing for a risky high variance play.

The villain 4-betting is the player with the biggest stack and poses the most threat to Hero. Let's try to range him. Hero says, "BB has been fairly snug, playing TAG and not getting out of line." Sounds to me like a pretty ABC case of AK, QQ+ with some chance of JJ or AQs. Let's call that 16 AK hands, 18 QQ+ and two AQs. So Hero is a small favorite half the time and a 4-1 dog half the time - - - - > hero has something like 38% equity vs villain for the side pot.

That's all the study I need. No way Hero should put up half the money in the huge side pot for 38% equity. We don't even need to begin looking at the main pot, but we can be sure hero has somewhat less than 38% equity there.

DrStrange

 

[Anthony Martino]

I was actually the BB in this hand, and shoved with AK to isolate the two short stacks. The original raiser called and then exclaimed WOW, I'M ACTUALLY AHEAD! when he saw the hands, so I guess he called even though he thought he was behind? I figured like Dr Strange that my range was essentially polarized to AK/QQ+ in this spot, so was surprised the JJ called. Although the board ran out essentially bricked for everyone, but if the JJ wasn't in there then the 98 s00ted winds up hitting his 9 to triple up. Instead guy busted all three of us with the Jacks.

Hijack: (20%)
Cutoff: (12%)
Me: (30%)
MP Raiser: (37%)

 

[upNdown]

Nice twist.
Interesting. I think the call from JJ was a bad call, though understandably tempting.
I think your shove was gutsy but risky. It should have worked but . . .

 

[kmccormick100]

I was actually the BB in this hand, and shoved with AK to isolate the two short stacks. The original raiser called and then exclaimed WOW, I'M ACTUALLY AHEAD! when he saw the hands, so I guess he called even though he thought he was behind? I figured like Dr Strange that my range was essentially polarized to AK/QQ+ in this spot, so was surprised the JJ called. Although the board ran out essentially bricked for everyone, but if the JJ wasn't in there then the 98 s00ted winds up hitting his 9 to triple up. Instead guy busted all three of us with the Jacks.

Hijack: (20%)
Cutoff: (12%)
Me: (30%)
MP Raiser: (37%)

Your shove with AK is defintiely the right play, especially having both villains well covered. Your opponent should be folding everything worse than QQ+ with that action and for almost half his stack at 95bb. His call with Jacks is defintiely -EV, nothing you can do though.

 

[Lemonzest]

I don't understand calling. Do we think our hand is good? If I am sitting with JJ facing several all ins I am assuming I need to hit another Jack to win.

I would fold and not even feel bad about it.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I don't understand calling. Do we think our hand is good? If I am sitting with JJ facing several all ins I am assuming I need to hit another Jack to win.

I would fold and not even feel bad about it.

Check my results post a few posts up

 

[Lemonzest]

Check my results post a few posts up

Yeah I saw that. I just mean from a strategy point of view...before we see any cards. In general I am folding JJ when facing 2 shoves...whether it is cash or a tourney you are going to beat so damn often.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Yeah I saw that. I just mean from a strategy point of view...before we see any cards. In general I am folding JJ when facing 2 shoves...whether it is cash or a tourney you are going to beat so damn often.

This. I've folded jacks in similar spots and would probably do so here, though not without a sigh and a FML-roll-of-the-eyes.

 

[TheRepo]

I'm a total newbie to the forum, but perhaps some analysis to back things up.

1. Call 20000 to win 42175;
2. Assume Hijack range 66+/AJs/AQo (pretty tight for 15BB IMO);
3. Assume Cutoff range 99+/AQ (12BB...) Probably could even open this up a bit vs a known loose HJ shove, but calling station = fish = likely only thinking about his hand;
4. TAG range: This is the tough one. At 22K = 37BB and two (weak) players covered, he also knows that Hero in MP will close action. IMO, this = a tight range. For analysis purposes, let's say QQ+/AK.

My my calculations, we have 24% equity and we need 32% to call. So, a tight fold but perhaps closer than some would think.

Thoughts?

Repo

 

[DrStrange]

The equity in the side pot is more significant an issue than the main pot. Not only is the side pot larger than the main pot, but hero is putting in money dollar for dollar. All the "dead " money is in the main pot.

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Barring some meaningful insight into the players involved, this is an insta-fold, and it's not even close. Hooray to Hero for winning and everything, but it's hard to call that a good call. In this spot, shove-shove-shove shrinks up jacks like swimming in ice water. Stacks are kinda short but not really short for a tourney. I could even make a case for folding queens or kings here, though it's a closer decision with those hands.

The case for folding isn't only based on how often you expect to be behind. That's obviously a factor, but another big thing people miss in tournaments is that letting people duke it out for stacks is essentially free money because you move up in the ranks—and your chips all gain value—every time someone busts.

This spot is, at best, marginal. You're risking a very significant chunk of your stake to usually end up flipping, a small favorite, or way behind. And even if the spot is a little bit more favorable than that, the fact that players are likely to bust each other out without a dime from you makes it a pretty sweet deal to just sit the hand out.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Barring some meaningful insight into the players involved, this is an insta-fold, and it's not even close. Hooray to Hero for winning and everything, but it's hard to call that a good call. In this spot, shove-shove-shove shrinks up jacks like swimming in ice water. Stacks are kinda short but not really short for a tourney. I could even make a case for folding queens or kings here, though it's a closer decision with those hands.

The case for folding isn't only based on how often you expect to be behind. That's obviously a factor, but another big thing people miss in tournaments is that letting people duke it out for stacks is essentially free money because you move up in the ranks—and your chips all gain value—every time someone busts.

This spot is, at best, marginal. You're risking a very significant chunk of your stake to usually end up flipping, a small favorite, or way behind. And even if the spot is a little bit more favorable than that, the fact that players are likely to bust each other out without a dime from you makes it a pretty sweet deal to just sit the hand out.

Perfectly stated. Insta fold all day.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm a total newbie to the forum, but perhaps some analysis to back things up.

1. Call 20000 to win 42175;
2. Assume Hijack range 66+/AJs/AQo (pretty tight for 15BB IMO);
3. Assume Cutoff range 99+/AQ (12BB...) Probably could even open this up a bit vs a known loose HJ shove, but calling station = fish = likely only thinking about his hand;
4. TAG range: This is the tough one. At 22K = 37BB and two (weak) players covered, he also knows that Hero in MP will close action. IMO, this = a tight range. For analysis purposes, let's say QQ+/AK.

My my calculations, we have 24% equity and we need 32% to call. So, a tight fold but perhaps closer than some would think.

Thoughts?

Repo

Yeah this is the right analysis from "hero's" perspective.

If Hero can put TAG (acknowledging this is the OP) on being capable of an isolation raise here, maybe the range can be a little wider.

My thoughts were immediately can TT ever be in TAG's range here, what about AK, AQo? I wonder if that skews toward a call.

I personally probably fold JJ in that spot unless I think TAG can have TT and AQ in this spot, which I would only assume he is capable of shoving a little wider than usual in an isolation play. But I think it's close and give hero credit, the results show he got it in more than good enough to justify the price.

 

[JustinInMN]

That said, from hero's perspective, if TAG doesn't get involved, I'm calling the two short shoves quite comfortably.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Here's the problem with assessing the potential ranges of the three players who are all in before you have to decide. Yes, their ranges, based upon their chip stacks, can be fairly broad. But that does not mean that they don't have a hand. It only means that they might not have a strong hand relative to JJ.

But the key here is all in, all in, all in makes it much more likely that at best your have a flip against at least one of them and potentially two. Second, there is a good chance you are a dog to one of them. And lastly, if even you are ahead preflop over all three of them you still have to survive all three of them getting hits.

Once we see the actual pre flop holdings hero is still only a 36% favorite to win the hand and while its results oriented this is probably about the best scenario you could have asked for. Not a position I think warrants calling off for 40% of the remaining stack. Forget all the "reads" about the other players. Hero was the initial raiser. 3X the BB so this in fact narrows the ranges, to me, of the following players who all shove.

 

[vapourtrail1]

Jacks are gross

 

[JustinInMN]

Here's the problem with assessing the potential ranges of the three players who are all in before you have to decide. Yes, their ranges, based upon their chip stacks, can be fairly broad. But that does not mean that they don't have a hand. It only means that they might not have a strong hand relative to JJ.

Right, the point of assessing ranges is to weigh all possibilities, not to eliminate recognition that they may have a hand. It's just to weigh the possibility as accurately as possible against other possible holdings that are more favorable. Now if you can eliminate TT and lower and AK from TAGs range, then obviously JJ is very unfavorable against what is only JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Obviously getting 2-1 in a spot where you will be a 4-1 dog is bad. Going by @TheRepo 's calculation, even adding AK improves the equity to "24%" We're probably about a 55% favorite against AQ, AJ, and we're an 80% favorite against TT. If hero uses this range, 2-1 is starting to look like a good price if there are many more flips in there.

Now personally, I wouldn't generally put AQ, AJ or TT in OP's range here without some observation, and the knowledge that OP is capable of shoving a little wider here as an isolation play. But I'm saying if hero could or did, even weighed against the obvious possibility TAG has QQ+ as well, it's a close decision.

In a money bubble spot, I would understand the argument of protecting the stacks, but in an early-mid tournament spot it's hard to pass on opportunities like this. Acquiring 38K at this stage is huge.

 

[BukNaked36]

That said, from hero's perspective, if TAG doesn't get involved, I'm calling the two short shoves quite comfortably.

Just wondering if anyone disagrees with this, because this was right where my head was before the 22K shove.

 

[Ghoti]

Yeah I'm pretty sure I'm calling here, being the last to act.

 

[CHP TD]

Yeah I'm pretty sure I'm calling here, being the last to act.

Really!?!?

 

[TheRepo]

Right, the point of assessing ranges is to weigh all possibilities, not to eliminate recognition that they may have a hand. It's just to weigh the possibility as accurately as possible against other possible holdings that are more favorable. Now if you can eliminate TT and lower and AK from TAGs range, then obviously JJ is very unfavorable against what is only JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Obviously getting 2-1 in a spot where you will be a 4-1 dog is bad. Going by @TheRepo 's calculation, even adding AK improves the equity to "24%" We're probably about a 55% favorite against AQ, AJ, and we're an 80% favorite against TT. If hero uses this range, 2-1 is starting to look like a good price if there are many more flips in there.

Now personally, I wouldn't generally put AQ, AJ or TT in OP's range here without some observation, and the knowledge that OP is capable of shoving a little wider here as an isolation play. But I'm saying if hero could or did, even weighed against the obvious possibility TAG has QQ+ as well, it's a close decision.

In a money bubble spot, I would understand the argument of protecting the stacks, but in an early-mid tournament spot it's hard to pass on opportunities like this. Acquiring 38K at this stage is huge.

Great point from a winning tournaments perspective. I think sometimes this aspect is lost in the math of the current hand we analyze, forgetting to perhaps consider the meta-implications. I know the purists will crucify me for saying this, but a taking a chance early on a close call (not totally idiotic mind you) to build a huge stack early pays dividends later that are difficult to quantify using basic mathematics. It's like trying to calculate the advantage of a pawn sacrifice early in a chess game to set up a deep strategic (structural) advantage later. Meh, food for thought over some fine Scotch.

Repo

 

[DJ Mack]

Great point from a winning tournaments perspective. I think sometimes this aspect is lost in the math of the current hand we analyze, forgetting to perhaps consider the meta-implications. I know the purists will crucify me for saying this, but a taking a chance early on a close call (not totally idiotic mind you) to build a huge stack early pays dividends later that are difficult to quantify using basic mathematics.

I'll extend this a bit further. In the early-mid levels of a casino tournament you are likely still working on your table image. A hand like this is an excellent opportunity to show yourself as a bit more reckless/inexperienced than you actually are, regardless of outcome. This hand is a little pricey for my tastes given its relative strength but if I wanted to show that I sometimes play loose then it's not an instafold either. As you point out there are meta-implications beyond the chips in the pot.