Pre-flop float in position turns interesting (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

Anyone have a different read on MP?

Butler: you're folding to any bet here then and checking behind?

I'm probably calling up to around $100 and folding to half pot or bigger. Between $100 and $200 is tough. Def checking behind if checked to unless you think this chip-cutting thing was a charade to intimidate you into checking. In which case I'd bet $100ish.

 

[guinness]

Seems like MP is huge here with 88/Nut Floosh range if he leads out. I agree that fishcalling up to $100 might be okay, but its just too easy to find a fold. A $200 bet or higher you'd have to insta muck.

I think the real challenge here is whether to bet for value if MP elects to check. I'm either snap checking or count to 5 jamming.

 

[kk405]

With $500 already in the pot, I am betting $250 and no version of what the UTG or MP Hollywooding will make me fold for another $250 if I get shoved on. As I said, sometimes people deserve to get paid for THEIR big hands, and I will pay them off, especially if I decided to play 92s on the button. If you have a lot of consternation regarding this hand, next time fold marginal hands pre-flop. As played, given the stack sizes, I am never checking the river.

 

[bergs]

I was already in the camp that he didn't have a boat. On the turn, he would've either led out, or if he wanted to trap, he would've checkraised instead of flatting my $100 behind the UTG caller. That was an ultra-ripe situation for a checkraise if he had it and I think he knows that - on the turn so action left to come, I would've done his business for him with my $100 bet, low SPR, and UTG called behind me. I don't think he's scared of UTG, nor am I.

 

[bergs]

With $500 already in the pot, I am betting $250 and no version of what the UTG or MP Hollywooding will make me fold for another $250 if I get shoved on. As I said, sometimes people deserve to get paid for THEIR big hands, and I will pay them off, especially if I decided to play 92s on the button. If you have a lot of consternation regarding this hand, next time fold marginal hands pre-flop. As played, given the stack sizes, I am never checking the river.

It's not consternation. My entire poker game is one giant ball of consternation and I'm OK with that. It's an interesting spot, and I think I made a number of pretty bad mistakes in this hand after I flatted with 92s in position.

So assuming he checks, you're leading for $250 on the river and are OK playing with stacks because you don't think MP has a superior flush or boated? Just collecting opinions before I share what happened and wanted to clarify. It sorta sounded like you were jamming just to pay him off because you hate yourself for playing 92s OTB (LOL!)

 

[Trihonda]

If MP hollywoods, then checks, I feel like you have him beat... if he leads out, I feel like I'm likely calling here, but a solid table read could change things up. What are the hands he'd call a river value bet, that you're beating? What does he have that beats you, that he'd check...?

I dunno, it almost feels like an over pair (KK, AA), that made two pair with the ducks on board (wants to get to showdown), was possibly thinking of leading out on the river, but when the spade hits, he's wondering if you have spades...?

 

[Rhodeman77]

I am likely calling anything short of an open shove, but will check behind if checked too. For the simple fact that you took the lead on the turn MP may be looking to check raise thinking you would fold if he leads into you since the flush draw came in.

The pot is decent sized already, I don't want to risk being checked raised to make an extra $100.

 

[bergs]

The Conclusion....

OTB Hero ($600): 92ss; competent LAG image
UTG ($300): XX; older tight and sticky
MP ($700): XX; middle aged TAG

Preflop:
- UTG opens for $15
- MP raises to $35
- Hero OTB calls $35
- Blinds fold
- UTG flats $35

Flop ($108): Qs-8s-2d
- UTG opens for $30
- MP calls $30
- Hero OTB calls $30

Turn ($198): Qs-8s-2d-2c
- UTG checks
- MP checks
- Hero OTB opens for $100
- UTG calls $100
- MP calls $100

River ($498): Qs-8s-2d-2c-Js
- UTG checks quickly
- MP cuts out $100 and tanks.
- MP cuts out another $100 and studies me
- After about 60 seconds, I ask UTG what he has behind (his arm is covering his chips and I'm trying to break MP's concentration a bit). UTG lifts his arm quietly.
- MP finally checks
- I check behind, having decided during MP's tanking that if I bet here, UTG is going to call with dead money but MP could jam and force me off my hand. I want showdown value.

UTG: AQo (TPTK) as expected.
MP: 89cc (really?!?)
Hero: 9-high flush wins the $498 pot

I suppose that MP was thinking "OK, OTB isn't going to have a 2 here, and is probably on a spade draw. MP obviously has AQ. If I can make another 8 or 9, I can win at showdown, else if the turn and river don't bring in the flush, I can steal the pot". I had made a similar move earlier than orbit actually (for a much smaller pot 3-handed).

Hand review:

Pre-Flop: Called $35 pre with 92s - I had a plan for the hand that involved flop stealing, but the flop texture was great for my hand and it actually threw me off. I'm OK with this as long as I don't do it frequently (and I was riding a heater, actually).

Flop: Called $30. Actually, a pretty terrible move. I didn't think as critically as I should've about bottom pair + flush vs top pair + flush in this spot (particularly with UTG so obviously isolated on AQ). I don't think I appreciated that until I saw the replies in this thread. I thought my big mistake in this hand was on the river. A $200 bet here probably gets UTG off his hand and almost certainly gets MP to fold, and it's a helluva lot easier than what ensued. It's also consistent with my original plan pre which was to steal (ok, here it's a semi-steal) on the flop.

Turn: I'm OK with my $100 bet. Probably could've bet slightly more, like $120, but bet sizing at NLH is the first thing to go when my game isn't completely A+.

River: Immediately after I checked I realized that I didn't really think the hand through like I should've. I know UTG has AQ (or I'm about to get the shock of my poker life). What does MP have?
..........he doesn't have a boat - he would've led out or raised the turn. Pretty confident in this read. He had the perfect spot for a checkraise and passed.
..........he could have a flush, but what flush beats 9-high here?
..................he raised to $35 pre-flop so from a better flush perspective, I'm ruling out anything other than AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, and maybe (rarely) KJ, KT, JQ, QT, or JT.
..................Qs and Js are on the board, so combinatorial remove takes AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JQ, QT, and JT out of his hand
..................he's left with AK, AT, and KT. He's likely not raising to $35 pre with AT or KT, even suited
................. that leaves him with AK, but let's put AT and KT back in his range
..................he's not going to tank for that long with nut or second nut flush

If we rule out a boat, and we rule out nut and second nut flush, what's left? Not very much.

I should've realized this, and bet enough that I can get UTG to definitely call with TPTK (for example - he's never folding to a $65 bet on the river) and get MP to contemplate a bluff here. If she shows me nut flush and the tanking was an act, well, it was the first time I'd seen him do it (it was significant deliberation even for someone deliberate) and I guess he gets my stack. However, I think more often than not, I'm leaving a lot of value out there by not thinking it through progressively and making the safe check behind.

'Twas a nice pot. It could've been a lot nicer.

 

[onerand]

I'm at Foxwoods in a pretty good 1/2 NLH game with IBetOnAnything. It's Sunday and we finally found a table that isn't full of octogenarian nitballs who take walks every 15 minutes to idly earn points.

I have $600 behind and am OTB. UTG is an older tight player with $300, and MP is a very deliberate fairly TAG player who covers me. My table image is pretty good - LAG but competent.

I'm dealt 92ss. UTG makes it $15 and MP makes is $35. Folds around to me, blinds are yet to act.

I decide to call here and after thinking about it for 10 seconds, UTG flats too.

Flop ($108): Qs-8s-2d

UTG leads for $30 and MP thinks about it for 10 seconds and flats. I call. (Interested if anyone raises here for any reason).

UTG leading was interesting. Pretty sure he has at least a big Q. He's not betting draws and he's not bluffing OOP into 2 looser players. Would've expected a bigger bet if he has a set with the flush draw out there on the flop and 2 pair is unlikely given his tightness, preflop play, and board texture.

I have a wide range for MP but won't share yet in case people have strong opinions.

Rest of the hand is where it gets interesting.

Turn ($208): Qs-8s-2d-2c

Both players check to me. What's my action?

Only read first post. I raise the flop. You have a weak lead and a call. Its a good bluff barrell spot, but you have a strong hand you can keep hammering. Also, need to play this hand faster, I think, if you're calling 35 preflop.

As played, I guess half pot the turn, don't blow anyone off but get value.

 

[kk405]

It's not consternation. My entire poker game is one giant ball of consternation and I'm OK with that. It's an interesting spot, and I think I made a number of pretty bad mistakes in this hand after I flatted with 92s in position.

So assuming he checks, you're leading for $250 on the river and are OK playing with stacks because you don't think MP has a superior flush or boated? Just collecting opinions before I share what happened and wanted to clarify. It sorta sounded like you were jamming just to pay him off because you hate yourself for playing 92s OTB (LOL!)

Obviously the preflop call is where all the questionable thoughts about the hand cone into play. But, after that, I think you played just fine. Check back on the river is fine, but as I mentioned before, I would have bet the river. And if I get called by a bigger flush, it's fine too. If you don't value-own yourself once in a while, it means you are not value betting enough on the river.

 

[guinness]

Well fart me a river. TAG isn't so TAG.

 

[jbutler]

TAG isn't so TAG.

Yeah I'm value betting the fuck out of that guy from now on.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I don't think you missed much value other than what UTG would have been willing to call, say $50 to $100. MP is never going to check raise bluff in that spot after UTG calls.

He would need to get both of you to fold. UTG is too short and as you said sticky to fold and you would have shown strength betting both the turn and river in that situation.

I agree that if a spade had to come off that the J is a good one. It does remove many of the possible combinations he could have had to beat you.

 

[bergs]

Yeah I'm value betting the fuck out of that guy from now on.

I took a couple more $150ish pots off him doing exactly that. Curious if he busted after I left, but I don't think Clay remembers him (he was very quiet and kinda blended in to the woodwork - didn't make a lot of big bets or calls other than this hand that I can recall either). Maybe he was tilting, maybe just bored.

 

[bergs]

FWIW, I was snap calling if MP bet $100 and was steeling myself to snap fold to a $200 bet. Anything over $200 would've been a much easier fold (though obviously not correct given my thoughts afterwards). $150-175 I sheeeshcall. If we were HU maybe I can get away from $100 but with the dead (dying) money from UTG I felt I had to call.

I need to think more critically when I'm playing. Combinations is something I don't use enough at NLH.

 

[onerand]

FWIW, I was snap calling if MP bet $100 and was steeling myself to snap fold to a $200 bet. Anything over $200 would've been a much easier fold (though obviously not correct given my thoughts afterwards). $150-175 I sheeeshcall. If we were HU maybe I can get away from $100 but with the dead (dying) money from UTG I felt I had to call.

I need to think more critically when I'm playing. Combinations is something I don't use enough at NLH.

Great river analysis.

 

[RainmanTrail]

LOL... seat open

 

[bergs]

LOL... seat open

Nobody busted on the hand.

 

[3betChet]

Nice thread, good self-critical analysis and well rolled-out. Always nice when the hero takes it down.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Nobody busted on the hand.

Sorry, I was being an ass. But that shouldn't come as a surprise given our history...

With respect to the hand itself, you couldn't have played it any worse. The pre flop call isn't just bad, it's atrocious and demonstrates a severe lack of understanding of when and why you'd want to play somewhat splashy draw hands on the button. You'd need to be playing with about $2k+ effective stacks AND (here's the key part) be able to have the confidence to want to get that money in when you bink your hand AND have a decent chance of getting paid off once you get there. None of these things are ever happening with 92s. This hand is a prime example. Everything went your way (perfect flop, perfect turn, and almost perfect river) yet you still didn't get paid off anywhere near as much as you'd need to in order to make this pre-flop play profitable (you made $333 on this hand and risked $35 pre flop to get it. Make this call 9 more times and see how you do then). The type of hands you should be splashy with here need to have the opportunity to at least make the nuts sometimes. Hands like 75s are what you can profitably splash with here, not 92s. You can make a pretty well disguised nut straight that will get paid off big if your opponents make the right hands. But you're never getting paid off with your 92s even when things go perfectly for you.

On the flop, flatting isn't just bad, it's pretty terrible. You are a slight favorite vs AQo, KQo, and even to AKss and your fold equity is through the roof. There's plenty of money in the pot already worth fighting for, and the fold equity alone should be enough for this to be a must raise situation. You should be happy to get this hand heads up on the flop against strong hands like AQ, AKss, KK, AA, ATss (less likely) and shouldn't be worried about the rare occasions that you'll be up against a set. When it happens, it happens and you'll still have plenty of outs. If the AQo folds, and you get called by someone with nut flush draw, you're still a slight favorite. However, there's one critical component to this analysis that everyone is missing (or so I didn't see it when I quickly skimmed). Look at what happens to your equity in the case where you're up against AQo AND a higher flush draw. You need to try to get this hand heads up. If you are up against both of these types of hands, you need to get one of them to fold. It's pretty unlikely that both hands would be willing to get it in on this flop if the action got crazy here (and it should).




The turn: OK, fine

The river: This might be the biggest leak of the entire hand. But it sounds like you've already figured that out. The fact that the Qs, Js, 9s, and 8s are all accounted for means you're really only worried about one specific combo here: AKss. A combo which if they had it, would almost certainly value bet this river AND would usually have raised this flop. You took a crazy long odds chance with this hand pre-flop, everything went your way post flop, you made what you were hoping to make, you have position, you know you're getting paid off by the AQ, and players almost never Hollywood tank then check raise with nut flush in this spot on the river. You may as well start lighting hundred dollar bills on fire if you're going to check this river back.


My advice: stick to the name calling and berating people here on the forums. Poker clearly isn't your thing...

 

[bergs]

Sorry, I was being an ass. But that shouldn't come as a surprise given our history...

Our history is in a large part due to the fact that you have the social grace of a rabid woodchuck, but I'll try to look past that and the fact that the "seat open" comment was confusing at best, and accept your criticism for what I hope is constructive purposes.

With respect to the hand itself, you couldn't have played it any worse.

Yes, I played it very poorly. That's why I posted it - to get constructive criticism to help improve my play. I haven't played much casino NLHE in the last 12 months and I'm rusty in some spots. I'm sorry that it wasn't a brag thread. I can post some of those too if you want. It's not like I stumble drunkenly around the poker room floor repeatedly making moves like this, but you must have damn near wet yourself in orgasmic pleasure when you saw and seized the opportunity to offer me criticism. I'm glad I could help you end April on a high note.

The pre flop call isn't just bad, it's atrocious and demonstrates a severe lack of understanding of when and why you'd want to play somewhat splashy draw hands on the button. You'd need to be playing with about $2k+ effective stacks AND (here's the key part) be able to have the confidence to want to get that money in when you bink your hand AND have a decent chance of getting paid off once you get there. None of these things are ever happening with 92s. This hand is a prime example. Everything went your way (perfect flop, perfect turn, and almost perfect river) yet you still didn't get paid off anywhere near as much as you'd need to in order to make this pre-flop play profitable (you made $333 on this hand and risked $35 pre flop to get it. Make this call 9 more times and see how you do then). The type of hands you should be splashy with here need to have the opportunity to at least make the nuts sometimes. Hands like 75s are what you can profitably splash with here, not 92s. You can make a pretty well disguised nut straight that will get paid off big if your opponents make the right hands. But you're never getting paid off with your 92s even when things go perfectly for you.

I don't make this kind of call often - even on the button. At 2/5 or higher I'll never make it (though I will with suited connectors and suited gap connectors as you indicated previously). That said, I was looking for post-flop criticism, so let's move on before I make fun of you and make you quit something again like what happened with fantasy football. I don't want to bruise the poor, tender overripe banana that is your precious ego. I'm not even sure how you posted all of this without dropping a Negreanu reference, honestly. That must've required that you exert an exorbitant amount of self-control.

On the flop, flatting isn't just bad, it's pretty terrible. You are a slight favorite vs AQo, KQo, and even to AKss and your fold equity is through the roof. There's plenty of money in the pot already worth fighting for, and the fold equity alone should be enough for this to be a must raise situation. You should be happy to get this hand heads up on the flop against strong hands like AQ, AKss, KK, AA, ATss (less likely) and shouldn't be worried about the rare occasions that you'll be up against a set. When it happens, it happens and you'll still have plenty of outs. If the AQo folds, and you get called by someone with nut flush draw, you're still a slight favorite. However, there's one critical component to this analysis that everyone is missing (or so I didn't see it when I quickly skimmed). Look at what happens to your equity in the case where you're up against AQo AND a higher flush draw. You need to try to get this hand heads up. If you are up against both of these types of hands, you need to get one of them to fold. It's pretty unlikely that both hands would be willing to get it in on this flop if the action got crazy here (and it should).

Here's the part of your post that I was actually interested in...

I definitely should've raised here. It was actually the river that I was posting this head for initially, so I was a bit surprised about the feedback everyone provided regarding needing to raise the flop. The bottom-pair plus flush draw versus top-pair plus flush draw was a concept that I didn't consider here (thanks jbutler and others). You raise a great point in that I needed to get AQ to fold here. I never got the impression that MP was folding, but I think a flop raise followed by the turn lead would've gotten UTG to fold.

The turn: OK, fine

Agree that this was the only street I played reasonably well here.

TThe river: This might be the biggest leak of the entire hand. But it sounds like you've already figured that out. The fact that the Qs, Js, 9s, and 8s are all accounted for means you're really only worried about one specific combo here: AKss. A combo which if they had it, would almost certainly value bet this river AND would usually have raised this flop. You took a crazy long odds chance with this hand pre-flop, everything went your way post flop, you made what you were hoping to make, you have position, you know you're getting paid off by the AQ, and players almost never Hollywood tank then check raise with nut flush in this spot on the river. You may as well start lighting hundred dollar bills on fire if you're going to check this river back.

It's absolutely the biggest leak of the hand. I'd almost always bet in this situation here and I think my rustiness with NLHE caused me to check it back.

One thing that I don't think as come up here is what my bet sizing should've been on the river. Bet sizing is something that I occasionally struggle with. I obviously want two calls in this spot - or I want to size the river bet so that UTG folds his AQ and MP thinks this is a bluff and comes over the top. That's actually why I checked back - because I didn't want to get blasted off the hand by MP - but I didn't think the river through to the extent I should've else I would've made a play to get him to do just that and get max value.

I think UTG probably calls $100. If UTG comes along, MP is probably folding or flatting - UTG only had $180 or so to start the hand if memory serves. Maybe if I lead out $200 it gets UTG to fold and MP to come over the top, but we're actually not that deep (one of the many reasons I normally loathe 1/2).

If anyone has opinions on the river bet sizing I'd be interested...

My advice: stick to the name calling and berating people here on the forums. Poker clearly isn't your thing...

I primarily berate just you, but it's usually because you make idiotic comments like this. Man, you were doing so well too, trying to be a helpful community member, and then you just couldn't help yourself, could you? Hard to believe that so many people here really can't stand you.

My advice: stick to chips and poker and try to at least assume a mantle of faux humility once in a great while. I can trade insults with you all day and night long - to be perfectly transparent, I'm way better at it then you are - but you're really just hurting yourself.

 

[bergs]

My pithy comments to the spirited but rabid woodchuck Rainman aside, I actually am interested in any feedback on what river bet sizing here should've looked like. Is it simply a jam or bet $200 and get UTG's money or was there a way to induce the MP to bluff-jam back (which I really do think would've required that UTG fold)?

 

[RainmanTrail]

If anyone has opinions on the river bet sizing I'd be interested...

I'm betting around $150 on the river here.

I primarily berate just you...

LOL

 

[Rhodeman77]

MP can never bluff jam after you bet and a call by UTG. He would still have to show down VS UTG so trying to bluff you doesn't do him any good.

 

[bergs]

MP can never bluff jam after you bet and a call by UTG. He would still have to show down VS UTG so trying to bluff you doesn't do him any good.

Right - that's why I was trying to figure out a bet sizing with these stacks that would get UTG to fold and induce MP to bluff. I'm not sure it's possible unless we're way deeper (and the hand would've played out quite differently if we were). UTG only has $175 and the pot is ~$500, and he's relatively sticky with TPTK.

 

[bergs]

I'm betting around $150 on the river here.

With the goal being UTG calls (or probably just jams in his last $25 actually) and MP calls? I think a $150-175 river bet gets MP to fold. That said, it's $150 I didn't get the way I played it.

Wish we were 1000bb deeper.

 

[Anthony Martino]

The Conclusion....

OTB Hero ($600): 92ss; competent LAG image
UTG ($300): XX; older tight and sticky
MP ($700): XX; middle aged TAG

Preflop:
- UTG opens for $15
- MP raises to $35
- Hero OTB calls $35
- Blinds fold
- UTG flats $35

Fold pre

Flop ($108): Qs-8s-2d
- UTG opens for $30
- MP calls $30
- Hero OTB calls $30

I don't hate the call here, I think I learn towards 30% call, 70% raise in this spot (which I wouldn't be in, because fold pre)

Turn ($198): Qs-8s-2d-2c
- UTG checks
- MP checks
- Hero OTB opens for $100
- UTG calls $100
- MP calls $100

I probably bet about $125 myself, but glad you bet. Your hand is ridiculously disguised (and ridiculous!) so definitely like the bet here.

River ($498): Qs-8s-2d-2c-Js
- UTG checks quickly
- MP cuts out $100 and tanks.
- MP cuts out another $100 and studies me
- After about 60 seconds, I ask UTG what he has behind (his arm is covering his chips and I'm trying to break MP's concentration a bit). UTG lifts his arm quietly.
- MP finally checks
- I check behind, having decided during MP's tanking that if I bet here, UTG is going to call with dead money but MP could jam and force me off my hand. I want showdown value.

MP seems to be exhibiting the classic "I'm going to grab chips and appear like I'm willing to bet or call a bet so you won't bet!" mannerisms. When he checks I like a bet here of $175. I think you get paid off by weaker holdings, and I think you're rarely behind given how the river played out.

 

[DrStrange]

I wonder if Hero is asking the wrong question(s) on the river.

First question, who should Hero be targeting - UTG or MP? UTG has $135 left, MP has $435. The pot is $438. I guess one way to look at it is that UTG is going to get his stack in if he has top pair or better so long as hero bets enough.

Second question - Let's remember that Hero's table read is that MP is TAG so MP isn't a good candidate for inducing a spew bluff but he likely will pay off some bet if he has a top pair kind of hand. It could be that MP will pay off his whole stack with such a hand. One does have to wonder what kind of hand villain might have where he 3-bets preflop, flats the 1/3 pot flop bet, check/calls the $100 turn bet and then "Hollywood / checks" the river oh, and then calls a river bet. (There is one hand MP might have in this situation that makes some sort of sense out of that mess if he check raises the river, but Hero isn't going to enjoy it.)

Last question - should Hero be concerned about getting hammered by a river check raise?

My proposed river plan for Hero. Bet $135 and cash in on UTG's presumed top pair or over pair. On a good night, MP will show up with a poorly played AA / KK / AQ and feel forced to call the value bet. However, if MP check raises all-in then Hero needs to fold. I feel that hero stands to gain more by making the river value bet than taking the safe check, however there is no reason to thing MP is going to be bluffing with a river check raise.

"My monsters under the bed" hand for MP is not AKs, it is pocket queens.
Preflop 3-bet with pocket queens - check
Flop flat with top set is a mistake, but not totally crazy. At lease it is plausible
Turn check / call with the nut full house again is a little dodgy but not so bad depending on Hero's table image.
A river check / raise plan is risking value should Hero not bet however a lot depends on Hero's image.

A parting thought - we have good reason to reconsider Hero's villain read on MP after we get to showdown. But Hero has no reason to know this until the end of the hand. MP's range if he doesn't fold the river is AKs (spades) / AA / KK / AQ / QQ with almost no air due to UTG being all in

DrStrange

 

[bergs]

To your point Doc, MP hadn't shown down any garbage since I'd sat down. To make that play pre there with Q8 and his table image was surprising.

This is really why I think 2/5 is a bit easier. They actually seem somewhat more predictable than 1/2 players for the most part.