Red aces, big blind, micro stakes (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

Hero is lost in the hand on the flop. Could be he is way ahead. Could be he is way behind. Could be he is a little ahead. If villain were a thinking villain, capable of reading Hero's TAG range and understanding how often Hero is in a difficult spot on a flop like this, Hero would be easy pickings. Fortunately this villain does not think like this. But he is a wild and crazy guy, so even if he does not reach the "I'll make a big bluff" conclusion with hand reading logic, if he makes that big bet, Hero is still going to be in a bad spot.

But Hero can think several layers deep and he can also plan out all of the hand before acting on the flop. There are a lot of times Hero is going check flop and check fold the rest of the hand based on what card comes on the turn - all off suit queens, jacks, sixes and sevens fit in that category. That is 12 cards out of the 47 remaining cards. Hero isn't going to like a paired board but might take a call for a cheap showdown line on 9 of the 47 cards. Same song second verse on flushing cards, there are 9 of those (we already counted the as a pairing card). There are 15 bricks and two aces.

Note that 30 of the 47 cards are potentially better for the villain than Hero. Hero doesn't know which ones actually helped villain, but the villain knows. The circumstance would be even worse if the villain were prone to making scare card bluffs, but as noted, this villain just bluffs on a whim more than as a thoughtful strategy.

Hero's check the flop decision is driven by this inequality. Most of the turns are going to be bad cards, some worse than others. The villain is prone to betting air or weak hands a lot, so Hero will want to bluff catch cheaply or face being bluffed off the hand. Yes, Hero is ahead more often than behind on the flop. But the problem comes on the turn when 64% of the time Hero's hand will be placed under even greater pressure.

If this were a passive villain, hero bets the flop. If this were limit poker, Hero bets the flop. If this villain were weak/tight, hero bets the flop.

But this villain is unpredictably aggressive, the betting is no limit, Villain's stack is shallow enough that Hero can be tempted to make bluff catching calls so Hero takes a safer line and checks.

Checking is a "sklansky bucks" mistake. If Hero could be sure he could play perfectly on the turn and river, then yes fire a bet on the flop. But Hero isn't going to be able to play perfectly many times the last two streets, so he opts to check the flop and evaluate the turn.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Checking is a "sklansky bucks" mistake. If Hero could be sure he could play perfectly on the turn and river, then yes fire a bet on the flop. But Hero isn't going to be able to play perfectly many times the last two streets, so he opts to check the flop and evaluate the turn.

The trouble with checking the flop isn't just that it's a one-street EV mistake. It also makes it significantly harder to play perfectly (or even well) on the turn and river. It's a mistake that sets up future mistakes.

 

[DrStrange]

Curious, I would have said exactly the opposite that checking the flop is going to make the last two streets easier to play.

 

[ushallnotraise]

Curious, I would have said exactly the opposite that checking the flop is going to make the last two streets easier to play.

Without understanding how villain plays in position against a super coordinated flop, the turn card makes us relatively lost in the hand when villain leads out. The exact reason you're as lost as you are in this hand to begin with is because you didn't bet flop. How does checking the flop make the turn easier to play? When a scare card comes out and villain bets are you always auto-folding AA? If you are it's a big leak. Betting the flop helps to narrow villain's range so you can better play on 4th and 5th street.

 

[Shaggy]

The trouble with checking the flop isn't just that it's a one-street EV mistake. It also makes it significantly harder to play perfectly (or even well) on the turn and river. It's a mistake that sets up future mistakes.

Curious, I would have said exactly the opposite that checking the flop is going to make the last two streets easier to play.

I think regardless of the turn/river being easier or harder because of the check... it is definitely cheaper. Maybe that is why it is the better decision.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

I think part of the reason you say your lost is that you're ranging V on all the draws and pair+ draw hands that make all these turn cards scary. Since you didn't bet flop there's no reason to range him on these, he could have 22 for all we know. By following through with the cbet the hand is easier to play because we narrow Vs range when he calls it.

I feel like your approach to the hand was more in line with approaching this spot from OOP. We have position, and a flop cbet doesn't mean you have to stack off.

 

[mipevi]

But Hero can think several layers deep and he can also plan out all of the hand before acting on the flop. There are a lot of times Hero is going check flop and check fold the rest of the hand based on what card comes on the turn - all off suit queens, jacks, sixes and sevens fit in that category. That is 12 cards out of the 47 remaining cards. Hero isn't going to like a paired board but might take a call for a cheap showdown line on 9 of the 47 cards. Same song second verse on flushing cards, there are 9 of those (we already counted the as a pairing card). There are 15 bricks and two aces.

Note that 30 of the 47 cards are potentially better for the villain than Hero. Hero doesn't know which ones actually helped villain, but the villain knows. The circumstance would be even worse if the villain were prone to making scare card bluffs, but as noted, this villain just bluffs on a whim more than as a thoughtful strategy.

Hero's check the flop decision is driven by this inequality. Most of the turns are going to be bad cards, some worse than others. The villain is prone to betting air or weak hands a lot, so Hero will want to bluff catch cheaply or face being bluffed off the hand. Yes, Hero is ahead more often than behind on the flop. But the problem comes on the turn when 64% of the time Hero's hand will be placed under even greater pressure.

I'd peel one off on the turn regardless of the card as long as villain isn't making a gross overbet, he'll just have so many worse hands in his range. The real decision for me would be on the river.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Curious, I would have said exactly the opposite that checking the flop is going to make the last two streets easier to play.

Cheaper? Yes. Easier? Not really.

We'd like to take this hand to a showdown, but don't necessarily want to go nuts with it. There are a few ways we can turn this hand into a 2-bet or smaller affair, namely by choosing to check back on one of the 3 streets. That's the point of making these pot-control plays, right? So which street do we check?

• Checking the flop is a huge mistake. The board is very wet, but we're heads-up, not multi-way, so it's not necessarily a hand-killer. We should be able to get value from a lot of hands by betting, and the fact of Villain calling or raising the bet will give us information to narrow his range. By checking, we miss out on all of that and leave ourselves in the dark on future streets.
  
• Checking the river also seems like a bit of a mistake. If Villain goes check-call, check-call on 2 streets, we may be losing value if we get to the river and don't bet.
  
• Checking the turn seems best. Villain check-calls the flop, he checks the turn, and then we check behind to (a) control pot size and (b) induce a bluff. We can then safely flat the river.

I'm not totally convinced that we should take a pot-control line here anyway with SPR of ~4, but if we are going to skip a bet, the turn is the street that makes the most sense to keep it cheaper and make our decisions easier.

 

[DrStrange]

*** on to the river ***

Hero flats. $17.50 in the pot. Effective stacks $47.

Villain asks Hero if he is hoping for another diamond on the river. Hero bobs his head like a bobble head toy.

River: < >

Villain bets $4. Action on Hero, fold call or raise? If raising, how much?

This villain doesn't know how to post oak bluff. His bet sizing likely means a hand less than the flush. This guy is STICKY, I am not sure he folds many hands better than AA to a big raise. Some people have been able to bluff him, but Hero hasn't had much success the times he has tried.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Little over 5:1? I guess crying call. He could have something like AQ/AT? I'm ok with laying this down but meh.

Did V have 77? That would suck

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Great hand history too, btw. Very interesting flop spot.

 

[detroitdad]

Gut says raise to 21

 

[Jimulacrum]

Call. We're getting 5:1, and given the weak line we've taken, plus the "wild and crazy" characterization, I think we can figure he's got at least 1 hand we beat for every 5 that beat us. Even if that's not quite true, it's a relatively small error, and we still gain information by seeing his cards at showdown.

If he's anything you could describe as sticky, I don't think it's worth trying for a bluff here.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

AA is a bluff catcher at this point. Are we trying to fold out a better hand? Not happening against a "STICKY" V. Why raise?

 

[ushallnotraise]

Call. 5.25:1. As played, that's the most simple part of this hand, honestly.

 

[DrStrange]

I thought the really interesting part of the hand was the flop bet. I mulled that off and on over for one mile in the pool and three miles on the road - say two hours. It is a really complicated multi-street problem that I never got "solved", I think both sides of the argument have significant merit.

Turning the hand into a bluff would be a fun discussion vs a different type of villain, but not so much here. Specifically jamming like hero has the turned flush given villain's small bet sizing would have been an interesting semi bluff. Waiting till the river to spring a bluff might not have been as good an idea

 

[mipevi]

Call river.

 

[mipevi]

I thought the really interesting part of the hand was the flop bet. I mulled that off and on over for one mile in the pool and three miles on the road - say two hours. It is a really complicated multi-street problem that I never got "solved", I think both sides of the argument have significant merit.

I think to bet or not to bet the flop is really a question of two things. Are you committed, and to a lesser extent how well you play vs. opaque ranges.

Others have said they were bet/calling, so their assessment of villain's c/r range is wider than mine, as I would only be bet/folding on the flop. Checking the flop seems better value than bet/folding, so that's what I would have done.

Betting the flop will narrow villain's range, making it easier to play the rest of the hand correctly. I feel comfortable playing vs. opaque ranges (especially IP), so for me narrowing villain's range on the flop is quite insignificant. Also checking back is likely to widen the range villain will be putting money in the pot with, which increases our value and compensates for the free turn card. I still get the necessary information on the turn and river, before making my final (river) decision. But if someone hates playing vs. opaque ranges and feels more prone to mistakes, then betting the flop probably works better for them.

 

[thorwilliam]

Pre and flop as played both fine. Call turn.

Agreed.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Finish or Villain missed an opportunity ***

Hero calls, though I have begun to wonder if he should make the crying call even getting such sweet pot odds. Probably Hero should call just knowing this villain.

Villain tables

Somehow villain had flopped the nut straight and failed to get a total of one pot sized bet in cumulatively over three streets ($8 bet into a $9.50 pot.)

We see how very lucky Hero was, just a little different set of facts and Villain was going to cash in on his very fortunate flop.

 

[BGinGA]

I see JQ monsters under the bed. We ~do~ have aces, after all.......

yep.

 

[mipevi]

Hero calls, though I have begun to wonder if he should make the crying call even getting such sweet pot odds. Probably Hero should call just knowing this villain.

You've underrepped your hand so much, folding on the river for those odds would require a pretty solid read IMO. Even if it's a mistake to call, it's a tiny one.

 

[ushallnotraise]

You've underrepped your hand so much, folding on the river for those odds would require a pretty solid read IMO.

Hey look, we agree on something!