PAHWM - 1/3 Home Game AKo in 4 way single raised pot (1 Viewer)

[grebe]

Part 3

UTG folds
HERO is +1 with AhKs and raises to $15 (standard open). [$950]
LJ calls. [$600]
HJ calls. [$480]
SB calls. [$130]

Pot $57 (after rake)
Flop:

SB leads for $30.
HERO calls.
LJ calls.
HJ calls.

Pot: $173
Turn:

SB jams for $85.
HERO calls.
LJ folds.
HJ jams for ~$340 more and says "I guess I'm all in again."

HERO?

This really feels like a standard call here. I am not sure that any line we took would have resulted in anything different than two guys that want to get it in doing so. I feel we are ahead here though.

My guesses:
SB donk/fish: He has either top pair no kicker, or middle pair. This is the BS that I see constantly against a donk bet like this. We are ahead of him almost always. Two pair or better, people go for check raises more often than not. sounds about right.

HJ: He has a draw....probably a flush draw. I'll give him a ton of credit and say a pair plus a flush draw. Let's give him a hand like

We have to fade some shit, but are in great shape.

 

[JustinInMN]

Not many options in GA. Given that Cherokee is now at like $8-9 including the JP drop, and even most Vegas places are at $7,

Wow. I was in vegas a few weeks ago and played mostly Aria, Bellagio, and Resorts world, all were $5 max still I believe and no JP.

 

[Legend5555]

Wow. I was in vegas a few weeks ago and played mostly Aria, Bellagio, and Resorts world, all were $5 max still I believe and no JP.

Yeah. If there is no JP. Then it's 5. But anywhere with a JP, it's a minimum of $7 total.

I'm pretty sure $10 is beatable in this particular game given the player pool though. I'm up $2700 in 15-16 hours of total play.

 

[JustinInMN]

So wow, I totally biffed it that there were two waiting to act behind hero on the flop. Realizing that now, I absolutely favor raising the flop to isolate the donk. I don't mind the flat heads up because AK is so unlikely to be outdrawn here. It's a way ahead/way behind situation and I don't mind leaving the other person in the lead in this spot. With players yet to act however, AK is far more likely to be outdrawn because of the odds laid to very weak draws, particularly one pair hands under top pair with a live kicker, and gutshots.

Now given that one of these call-behinds has woken up with a hand and raised two players, I just don't see that move being less than two-pair-plus very often against two players. I think you may be looking at 98 here personally. I don't mind calling the SB shove, but I don't love calling the HJ shove, especially if he is making a hand-weakening statement. (Often a tell of strength unless you have enough on him to know he is knowledgeable about tells to manipulate them.)
So I am firmly in the fold camp against the latest action. And I amend my vote on the flop to be a raise.

 

[JustinInMN]

Yeah. If there is no JP. Then it's 5. But anywhere with a JP, it's a minimum of $7 total.

I'm pretty sure $10 is beatable in this particular game given the player pool though. I'm up $2700 in 15-16 hours of total play.

The two rooms in the twin cities area are 4+2 right now. But half the games are still limit at least. (So faster.) Top games are a 10/down time charge.

It's possibly beatable, and if it is and you don't have other options, it is what it is. But I would expect they are dropping something over $200/hr at this, so you really need a lot of fresh cash to keep it sustainable.

 

[natumes]

Part 3

Pot: $173
Turn:

SB jams for $85.
HERO calls.
LJ folds.
HJ jams for ~$340 more and says "I guess I'm all in again."

HERO?

This is the tough spot I wanted to try and avoid with a flop raise. At this point I think SB has a king with a worse kicker (maybe K9 but I think he would have done a check raise over a donk). LJ could have all kinds of hands here, I'm leaning towards turned 2 pair or a set with the comment, but could be flush or combo draw as well (lean towards JTdd).

This is one of those spots where if you fold LJ misses his draw and you were good, but if you call he has a set and you're drawing dead.

I think I sigh and call here.

 

[Legend5555]

But I would expect they are dropping something over $200/hr at this, so you really need a lot of fresh cash to keep it sustainable.

So far, not an issue. Though, if players keep ripping through cash at the rate I've seen, might not be terribly long.

 

[Legend5555]

We do get a full meal, snacks, drinks, and alcohol for free. So as long as you are planning around that, that takes away a bit of the rake. I also play pretty tight because of the rake and try to play massive pots with my premiums.

 

[Legend5555]

Part 4

I folded after only about 45 seconds of thought.

Even with the description I've given, I've played enough to just know that guys like this just aren't jamming worse here almost ever. Does it happen? Sure. But how often? If he had a draw, he isn't jamming it now when he could just see the river cheaply. This isn't the type of player that thinks "I can get this other guy out in the protected pot by jamming and take my equity against only one player." I'm expecting to see him have K9, 99, or 22 here a lot.

As for the SB, I think his mostly likely hands are worse Ks. That's what I tend to see most often in these types of spots. It's not 2 pair+, because he would probably look to check jam those. Maybe he has some draws from time to time, but I just see that way less often.

HJ ends up having K8.
SB has KJ.

Where I very much messed this up is not raising the flop. I didn't see the SBs stack before I made my decision on the flop. And given the short stack, I think a raise is mandatory. As it gets bigger, I think I can look to play a little more cautiously. But I think I just need to raise to $75-115 and then possibly fold if raised again behind me. In the moment I was playing a little cautiously because of the players behind and a little bit to set a trap for the guy who had been shoving. On the flop, I think he might raise a lot wider than he would on the turn. But then again, maybe not. But I was trying to see what developed as both guys being me were kind of out to get me to some extent. Some players just like to mess with and bust the tight guy.

 

[JustinInMN]

Would have been interesting if you did raise the flop. What does the HJ do behind with K8? If he 3-bet shoves over you that's a tough spot. If he calls anyway, he hits and you are probably pot-stuck on the river.

I do agree with the final analysis, raising is probably better overall and even given HJ hits his hand on the turn, you have provided him an opportunity to make an even bigger mistake with an inferior hand or draw.

If he folds the flop, you have bought yourself 3 outs against the SB. (and could have been 4 or 5 outs if you fold out gutshots or 2nd/3rd pair holdings)

But it is curious what may have been here.

 

[TheADMIRAL]

This seems like a fold, particularly with the speech.