River Decision in a Tournament - Flat or Push? (1 Viewer)

[Moxie Mike]

Scenario: Build-a-stack tournament in a local charity room with one rebuy allowed and one break add on. Incremental buy in works like this: $10 buys 10k in chips up to 50k chips at entry, rebuy and at 1st break. Hero is in for a full buy in and full add on.

30 players entered - we are still at 3 tables at level 7.

Blinds are 800/1600 and the level is winding down... next level is 1000/2000 and the following level is 2000/4000*.

*I know this big of a jump kind of sucks, but the room must close by 12:30 am and very often the tournament is still running at close and an ICM chop determines the winner.

Field is as soft as you could ever want in a tournament. Pots are usually 3 or 4 to the flop regardless of whether there's a raise or not. Most players are not of the thinking variety.

Hero is UTG +1 (stack ~80k) with and limps.*

*Why not open for a 3x raise? Because a raise will do nothing but build a pot for someone without really gaining much for Hero other than providing the first opportunity to c-bet. Plus, limping encourages others to limp - and if Hero flops a set, he'll need opponents to pay him off.

MP player limps, Button limps (stack ~150k), SB completes and BB (stack ~60k) checks his option. Pot: 8000

Flop comes . Checks to hero, who checks with the intention of raising.

MP player checks, and to Hero's surprise the button checks. Of the villains in this hand, button is the only competent player. He hasn't done anything overly impressive, but he doesn't seem like an idiot either. I can't really tell you why I thought he liked the flop and predicted that he would bet, but I was surprised when he didn't.

Turn is .

BB bets 3k. BB is the worst player at the table - he routinely tables ridiculously stupid plays and then spends the duration of the next five minutes maddeningly discussing his rationale. BB is the reason I bring fully charged headphones to the card room.

Hero flats the 3k, hoping to keep others in the hand and also hoping a third club hits the river. MP folds and button calls after a brief contemplation. SB folds. Pot: 17000

River .

BB bets 6000. Hero raises to 20,000. Hero's stack at this point is ~55,000.

Button raises to 45000. BB tanks for much longer than one would think in this situation and finally mucks in agony. Pot: 68000.

Button has only shown down reasonable hands to this point, but this is the first time I've played with him. No other reads available.

Hero?

 

[Pesto628]

I think this is an easy shove. I don’t personally like the limp pre and I don’t like the check on the flop with that wet of a board in a limped pot.

 

[Beakertwang]

Unless you really want to play with a chip and a chair, you should shove.

Would villain limp on the button with 88? I suppose that's a possibility. I'd most likely have him on A2 or K2 suited. Of course, 22 is an option, and that's just a sick cooler.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Unless you really want to play with a chip and a chair, you should shove.

Would villain limp on the button with 88? I suppose that's a possibility. I'd most likely have him on A2 or K2 suited. Of course, 22 is an option, and that's just a sick cooler.

30k is still a 15 BB stack for another 20+ minutes... so while 15 BBs isn't much to get your hopes up about, it's not exactly down to the seeds and stems, either

 

[DrStrange]

Over-full seems like a fine hand to go to war with. It isn't the nuts, but way at the top of Hero's range. Hero must look pretty FOS - limp preflop, check flop, call turn and only on the river ten does Hero wake up. Looks a lot like a bluff or a passive 97 that made a river straight. Over-full should be a surprise. {Hero should go bust in a set vs set hand.}

We do have to ask what a good player will call with. The shove is 30,000 into a 93,000 pot. Would villain fold something like A2s (trips, top kicker)? Would he fold a made straight? I think villain could call with plenty of worse hands and never ever fold a better hand.

So let's see what Hero gains by heeding his inner voice about villain being strong on the flop. say hero flats and loses. Hero has 30,000 chips left and the blinds headed to 1,000/2,000 shortly. So it is an "M" of 10 - playable but nervous. We don't know the average stack size, how long the blinds last or how close to closing time we are.

Callling isn't a disaster. It might not be a huge mistake. But it seems like an opportunity missed. I like jamming over calling. Obviously folding is out of the question.

 

[Kain8]

If you're always thinking, "We're going to need a bigger boat!" you'll never catch anything.

Shove and I wouldn't think twice about it in a low buy-in charity event.

 

[Frogzilla]

i flat, because I don’t think Button makes this 3-bet river raise multi-way, and then calls our jam, with anything worse than a straight.

Our shove needs to beat >50% of villains calling range to be chip EV+ and then damn it, ICM, so call it 60-70%. He’s got one quad combo and 6 boat combos that beat us. There’s only 16 total straight combos. So best case (he always overlimps 79o and then always goes to war on a paired board) we do have the odds to call winning 16/23 ~69%. But you discount some of the offsuit stuff and then discount some of those 3-bet with the straight lines, and it’s a pretty clear flat.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I don’t personally like the limp pre and I don’t like the check on the flop with that wet of a board in a limped pot.

Normally I wouldn't play the hand preflop like this. But in these events, it's fit or fold poker with all speculative hands for two reasons - for one many of these players will call their stacks off with garbage - so bluffing is a tool seldom deployed. The other reason is that these people will routinely pay off made hands, so accumulating chips is really only a matter of patience.

On the flop, my read was that the button would bet - and I played the hand accordingly. When you read the spoiler I'm about to post, you'll see that I was correct

In short, advanced plays that are effective against stronger fields only serve to make identical situations more difficult than they needs to be.

 

[Frogzilla]

Normally I wouldn't play the hand preflop like this. But in these events, it's fit or fold poker with all speculative hands for two reasons - for one many of these players will call their stacks off with garbage - so bluffing is a tool seldom deployed. The other reason is that these people will routinely pay off made hands, so accumulating chips is really only a matter of patience.

If this is how they really play, slam dunk value-town these donks on the flop with a healthy bet (like pot). Give them the opportunity to make a mistake.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Over-full seems like a fine hand to go to war with. It isn't the nuts, but way at the top of Hero's range. Hero must look pretty FOS - limp preflop, check flop, call turn and only on the river ten does Hero wake up. Looks a lot like a bluff or a passive 97 that made a river straight. Over-full should be a surprise. {Hero should go bust in a set vs set hand.}

Most of the players in these tournaments don't give much consideration to what Hero is betting with. They just play the cards they're dealt.

We do have to ask what a good player will call with. The shove is 30,000 into a 93,000 pot. Would villain fold something like A2s (trips, top kicker)? Would he fold a made straight? I think villain could call with plenty of worse hands and never ever fold a better hand.

Button is never folding for another 30k here.

So let's see what Hero gains by heeding his inner voice about villain being strong on the flop. say hero flats and loses. Hero has 30,000 chips left and the blinds headed to 1,000/2,000 shortly. So it is an "M" of 10 - playable but nervous. We don't know the average stack size, how long the blinds last or how close to closing time we are.

We're about 3.5 hours from closing time. Plenty of time to nurse along a short stack, which is feasible. I've done it many times

Callling isn't a disaster. It might not be a huge mistake. But it seems like an opportunity missed. I like jamming over calling. Obviously folding is out of the question.

Spoiler: Results

The BB tanked for so long that I'd already made up my mind as to what I was going to do before he even acted. Within 5 seconds of his fold I slipped my headphones off my ears and shoved all in.

The Button was briefly taken aback and appeared uneasy although I'm not sure why... after a couple seconds he said the words 'I call'.

I immediately said 'sixes full' out loud as I tabled my hand - only to have him turn over .

Strategy-wise I'm fine with how I played this and the results are what they are. But as I sat waiting for my turn to act I never really considered the option of calling instead of shoving, and I'm worried that may have been a little impulsive. I'd pretty much made up my mind as soon as the button raised. While the BB was contemplating, I ran through the range of what he could be holding... and while 22, 88, or 10-10 occurred to me, it seemed more likely (given the lack of pre or post flop aggression) for him to be holding 7-9 for a straight or even 2-6/2-8/2-10* (because they were suited of course) for the rivered under-full.

*He never turned over anything like ragged suited cards and may not be in his range - but these types of holdings are commonly tabled in these tournaments.

In reflection, the button's solid table image should at least forced me to consider what he would 3-bet with after a bet and a raise. A made straight probably flats there, as does bare trips. So while the under-fulls might be in his range - a made hand was probably far more likely given the opponent.

 

[Kain8]

Cooler, good for the button.

 

[Beakertwang]

30k is still a 15 BB stack for another 20+ minutes... so while 15 BBs isn't much to get your hopes up about, it's not exactly down to the seeds and stems, either

I misread your post as you starting the hand with 55k. A call could be understandable. Carry on.