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Interesting river decision OOP vs a strong opponent ($1/3/10 game) (4 Viewers)

Senzrock said:
Pot: $270

Flop: :tc: :7c::6d:
Hero checks
Villain thinks and bets $100
Hero calls (can't see an argument for much else here)

Pot: $470

Turn: :ks:
Hero checks (I'm checking full range here after just check-calling turn).
Villain: Checks

Question: What do we make of villains 1/3 pot bet on the flop in position and then checking the K on the the turn. Can we narrow his range a bit here? What kind of holdings might we be looking at? Is villain ever doing this with a strong hand? Does the K ever hit villain?
Click to expand...
K is undoubtedly a bad card for hero. By check calling the flop Hero has gained no real information and by checking the turn if V fires big on the river either because V feels like they have the best hand or senses weakness from Hero, it will be a tough decision (probably the point of this thread). V's hand feels like AKc/KQc to me. A set would defend their made hand by charging for any draws Hero may be on, and a combo draw would fire again to continue to pressure Hero.
 
Senzrock said:
Haven't posted a strategy hand in a while and I'm getting ready for a week at the Borgata, so figured I would see what people think about this spot -

Context: Playing a $1/3/10 game (It was billed as a deepstacked $1/3 game with $2k rebuy limits and everyone has been straddling). Mix of super action players (a few of them super splashy) and 3 strong regs. We are currently 9-handed and the game has been playing fast/loose with opens usually coming in at $50 and 3bets at $250. While it is technically deepstacked, the straddles and the action are making this game play a lot shallower than it might seem. I am $1200 effective, main villain in the hand has me covered.

Action: UTG straddles to $10 and UTG +1 (strong player) limps in for $10 which has becoming more common as the action players have just been blind raising almost any hand to $50 preflop. This has meant that some of the regs have mixed in some limp-raises and limp-calling into their strategy (usually all of us would 100% come in for a raise if entering the pot). two more calls to me in the SB and I look down at :jd::jh: initial thoughts?
Click to expand...
I'd raise to $65
 
DirtyTIVA said:
By check calling the flop Hero has gained no real information
Click to expand...
Would we have gained more information by betting flop and having villain call than we got by checking flop and calling villain's bet?

I think, theoretically, the K should be better for hero than for villain. We have all of the AK + KK in range and villain should have very few K's in range (especially after betting flop). Maybe villain has a hand like KTs or KJcc or something like that, but only a few combos. I think villain raises AK UTG+1 in the hopes of getting 3bet by one of the aggro whales in the game.
 
Yo
Senzrock said:
Questions I am asking myself on this flop:

What does my range look like to villain?
What does villains range look like to me?
Is this a good flop for our range?
Is this a good flop for villains range?
Is this a good flop for our actual hand?
Click to expand...
You should also ask - How many rebuys are in my pocket?
 
Senzrock said:
Pot: $270

Flop: :tc: :7c::6d:
Hero checks
Villain thinks and bets $100
Hero calls (can't see an argument for much else here)

Pot: $470

Turn: :ks:
Hero checks (I'm checking full range here after just check-calling turn).
Villain: Checks

Question: What do we make of villains 1/3 pot bet on the flop in position and then checking the K on the the turn. Can we narrow his range a bit here? What kind of holdings might we be looking at? Is villain ever doing this with a strong hand? Does the K ever hit villain?
Click to expand...
Agree that any card here is a check out of position given the prior streets.

1/3 pot bet with a check on the turn narrows hands a bit. 88/99/weaker combo draws/A10/maybe A7 or A6 if villain can't fold an ace/could be QJ

I think it discounts most Kx hands that aren't also club draws or gutter draws. Sets should be off the table. It's not 98 either as that would definitely bet given the action and turn card.

Checking range on river.

Any ace, queen, nine, eight, seven, or club should make us cautious/considerate about calling a river bet.
 
Senzrock said:
Context: Playing a $1/3/10 game (It was billed as a deepstacked $1/3 game with $2k rebuy limits and everyone has been straddling). Mix of super action players (a few of them super splashy) and 3 strong regs. We are currently 9-handed and the game has been playing fast/loose with opens usually coming in at $50 and 3bets at $250. While it is technically deepstacked, the straddles and the action are making this game play a lot shallower than it might seem. I am $1200 effective, main villain in the hand has me covered.


Preflop: UTG straddles to $10 and UTG +1 (strong player) limps in for $10 which has becoming more common as the action players have just been blind raising almost any hand to $50 preflop. This has meant that some of the regs have mixed in some limp-raises and limp-calling into their strategy (usually all of us would 100% come in for a raise if entering the pot). two more calls to me in the SB and I look down at :jd::jh:

Hero raises to $125. While I think there are some merits for slow playing JJ here, I think in a game like this it a bit too strong of a hand to play this way. I will almost always be check folding the flop and am just letting everyone into the pot with weaker ranges, basically giving up with what is likely the best hand if I don't flop a set. Bit too weak for me, I want to see if I can take it down or get heads up vs a weak range. If someone 3bets, me, I can reevaluate. We see the flop below) and have our next decision...

UTG+1 limps $10
UTG+2 folds
MP 1 folds
MP 2 folds
HJ calls $10
BTN calls $10
Hero (SB): Raise to $125
BB Folds
Straddle folds
UTG +1 Calls $125
HJ folds
BTN folds

Pot: $270

Flop: Tc7c6h

Action to Hero with :jh::jd:
Click to expand...
With $270 in the pot, and one other player, I would cbet here to $125 Leaves you with about $950 in a pot of $520. Turn bet size of $300 makes it a $1120 pot with little more than 1/2 size for river jam. $650 into $1120. This is indeed playing way more shallow than one might expect.
 
Senzrock said:
too small of a sizing here. I am only going to get everyone to call with this size (which we do not want, might as well limp call then I think I think).
Click to expand...
Maybe, but The Stack to pot ratio is now 4:1 because of the size of the raise. This is pretty close to an auto stack off regardless of flop.
 
Senzrock said:
Pot: $270

Flop: :tc: :7c::6d:
Hero checks
Villain thinks and bets $100
Hero calls (can't see an argument for much else here)

Pot: $470

Turn: :ks:
Hero checks (I'm checking full range here after just check-calling turn).
Villain: Checks

Question: What do we make of villains 1/3 pot bet on the flop in position and then checking the K on the the turn. Can we narrow his range a bit here? What kind of holdings might we be looking at? Is villain ever doing this with a strong hand? Does the K ever hit villain?
Click to expand...
Villain could have A10, J10 suited, 10 9, etc. I doubt they have an overpair to your JJ. Could also have 2 any clubs.
 
Senzrock said:
Would we have gained more information by betting flop and having villain call than we got by checking flop and calling villain's bet?

I think, theoretically, the K should be better for hero than for villain. We have all of the AK + KK in range and villain should have very few K's in range (especially after betting flop). Maybe villain has a hand like KTs or KJcc or something like that, but only a few combos. I think villain raises AK UTG+1 in the hopes of getting 3bet by one of the aggro whales in the game.
Click to expand...
From my perspective of a LAG, I know a pot sized bet on the flop or turn from the pf oop raiser would signal significant strength or at least the pot would be so large I (as the V) wouldn't be able to get Hero to lay down an overpair easily. If I (as the V) see a second check on the turn after the K peels off it would be a green light to fire normally. The fact that V doesn't here suggests to me V has paired his K and now thinks they have at least some showdown value. If a wet river comes and Hero checks again I would likely ship it regardless of what I had and put all the pressure on Hero. If Hero is a good player, they should fold. If Hero is a great player they may call.

It's true Hero could have AK/KK here but the check on the turn with a draw friendly board suggests they don't.
 
The turn check back reeks of a club or straight draw for villain. I still think sets bet for value and hands that beat hero's are themselves betting for protection on this turn card.

Going to go ahead and predict the Jack of clubs on the river.
 
RIVER ACTION (will do spoilers later tonight because this was a tough decision and a lot of thoughts went through my head!):

Context: Playing a $1/3/10 game (It was billed as a deepstacked $1/3 game with $2k rebuy limits and everyone has been straddling). Mix of super action players (a few of them super splashy) and 3 strong regs. We are currently 9-handed and the game has been playing fast/loose with opens usually coming in at $50 and 3bets at $250. While it is technically deepstacked, the straddles and the action are making this game play a lot shallower than it might seem. I am $1200 effective, main villain in the hand has me covered.


Action: UTG straddles to $10 and UTG +1 (strong player) limps in for $10 which has becoming more common as the action players have just been blind raising almost any hand to $50 preflop. This has meant that some of the regs have mixed in some limp-raises and limp-calling into their strategy (usually all of us would 100% come in for a raise if entering the pot). two more calls to me in the SB and I look down at :jd::jh:

Hero raises to $125. While I think there are some merits for slow playing JJ here, I think in a game like this it a bit too strong of a hand to play this way. I will almost always be check folding the flop and am just letting everyone into the pot with weaker ranges, basically giving up with what is likely the best hand if I don't flop a set. Bit too weak for me, I want to see if I can take it down or get heads up vs a weak range. If someone 3bets, me, I can reevaluate. We see the flop below) and have our next decision...

UTG+1 limps $10
UTG+2 folds
MP 1 folds
MP 2 folds
HJ calls $10
BTN calls $10
Hero (SB): Raise to $125
BB Folds
Straddle folds
UTG +1 Calls $125
HJ folds
BTN folds


Pot: $270

Flop: :tc: :7c::6d:

Hero (SB) checks
Villain (UTG+1) bets $100
Hero calls

Pot $470

Turn: :ks:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (UTG+1): Checks

River: :2h:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (UTG+1): Bets $300

Additional reads/context: Villain is very capable of bluffing here. I think hero is often capped at one pair, making this a nice bluff spot for villain. At the same time, hero is clearly invested in the hand, so what is villain hoping that hero might fold here as played? Another thought that went through my head was that villain was stuck around $1500 at this point (one buy-in, nothing big but enough where he might be opening up a bit). Problem is, that could mean he has a ton of hands pre that called me wide but then got there, and it could also mean that he shows up with hands that he feels has to bluff the river. At the same time... doesn't he just check hand most of his Tx here? Like if he called me with say JTs pre (totally reasonable hand). Does he really bet $300 here on the river for thin value? It feels like a polarizing bet (~65% pot). Tough spot!
 
kirchhausen said:
This is pretty close to an auto stack off regardless of flop
Click to expand...
I don't think a 4-to-1 stack to pot ratio means we are getting it in on any flop here unless you are referencing something I have not seen re: SPR theory in which case I would be happy to take a look!
 
Agreed it's a weird spot for V to bet 2/3 pot, should be pretty polarized. Given the nature of the wet board, I think it's a lot of bricked straight and flush draws, trying to take the pot down on the river or it's something like 67s, 66, 77 that thought you might've turned a set of Kings and is now betting for value. Given the pot odds and propensity for this being a bluffed missed draw I call pretty quickly here, even if I don't like it.
 
Senzrock said:
RIVER ACTION (will do spoilers later tonight because this was a tough decision and a lot of thoughts went through my head!):

Context: Playing a $1/3/10 game (It was billed as a deepstacked $1/3 game with $2k rebuy limits and everyone has been straddling). Mix of super action players (a few of them super splashy) and 3 strong regs. We are currently 9-handed and the game has been playing fast/loose with opens usually coming in at $50 and 3bets at $250. While it is technically deepstacked, the straddles and the action are making this game play a lot shallower than it might seem. I am $1200 effective, main villain in the hand has me covered.


Action: UTG straddles to $10 and UTG +1 (strong player) limps in for $10 which has becoming more common as the action players have just been blind raising almost any hand to $50 preflop. This has meant that some of the regs have mixed in some limp-raises and limp-calling into their strategy (usually all of us would 100% come in for a raise if entering the pot). two more calls to me in the SB and I look down at :jd::jh:

Hero raises to $125. While I think there are some merits for slow playing JJ here, I think in a game like this it a bit too strong of a hand to play this way. I will almost always be check folding the flop and am just letting everyone into the pot with weaker ranges, basically giving up with what is likely the best hand if I don't flop a set. Bit too weak for me, I want to see if I can take it down or get heads up vs a weak range. If someone 3bets, me, I can reevaluate. We see the flop below) and have our next decision...

UTG+1 limps $10
UTG+2 folds
MP 1 folds
MP 2 folds
HJ calls $10
BTN calls $10
Hero (SB): Raise to $125
BB Folds
Straddle folds
UTG +1 Calls $125
HJ folds
BTN folds


Pot: $270

Flop: :tc: :7c::6d:

Hero (SB) checks
Villain (UTG+1) bets $100
Hero calls

Pot $470

Turn: :ks:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (UTG+1): Checks

River: :2h:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (UTG+1): Bets $300

Additional reads/context: Villain is very capable of bluffing here. I think hero is often capped at one pair, making this a nice bluff spot for villain. At the same time, hero is clearly invested in the hand, so what is villain hoping that hero might fold here as played? Another thought that went through my head was that villain was stuck around $1500 at this point (one buy-in, nothing big but enough where he might be opening up a bit). Problem is, that could mean he has a ton of hands pre that called me wide but then got there, and it could also mean that he shows up with hands that he feels has to bluff the river. At the same time... doesn't he just check hand most of his Tx here? Like if he called me with say JTs pre (totally reasonable hand). Does he really bet $300 here on the river for thin value? It feels like a polarizing bet (~65% pot). Tough spot!
Click to expand...
Well he could have kjcc or kqcc. he could also have j9cc, jqcc. As unlikely it is for you to have more than one pair, i think he likely doesn't either. and he may have no pair. I think we make a call here.
 
Agree with above. V's line doesn't make a lot of sense. Flush draws and straight draws missed. 2 changes nothing which we would have guess on the flop or turn.

I'm leaning heavily on a call here.
 
Senzrock said:
I don't think a 4-to-1 stack to pot ratio means we are getting it in on any flop here unless you are referencing something I have not seen re: SPR theory in which case I would be happy to take a look!
Click to expand...
I meant to say if we have top pair or better on flop. 0-3 SPR is default stack off, 3-6 is situational (but this guy does not seem to be a nut peddler), and 6 + SPR is in the dont stack off range
 
Flop was much better for the limp calling range than our raising range + we are OOP. I think a lot of people would be surprised how often you actually check from OOP instead of c-betting. Def a board I'm checking the majority of the time in this configuration.

I don't read a ton into the 1/3rd pot sizing. I think a lot of the hand would use this as any bigger makes turn awkward as the big bet size gets closer to being just all in. This size actually sets up something like 60% turn 60% river. Check call is the reasonable play.

Turn could actually be a lead for us some % of the time, but not with our exact hand. We are squarely in the middle of our range with a medium strength hand OOP. That's a check.

Given villain didn't limp reraise pre, we can eliminate the AcKc and the big pairs. A set also isn't going to check here on this turn when it's so likely to hit you. Combo draws have a lot of incentive to bet again
So it seems a lot like 88, 99, ATs maybe, the remote possibility of the other JJ if that doesn't limp reraise, and maybe some club combinations. A high clubs specifically wouldn't want to bet either the flop or turn at some frequency to avoid getting check raised since they have a lot of equity.
 
Snap call river.

Flop I think if you check range (I agree it’s low freq board so it isn’t bad to check range) then JJ makes sense to go in the check raise range for the same reasons it’s one of the first hands into the bet range. And he went 1/3 so you definitely get to check raise.

K turn you can lead but not with this hand.
 

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