Set mining discussion (1 Viewer)

[joker80]

I realized last night that my decision process when to set mine needed more clarity:

Playing 1/2 at the local casino. Middle position is playing about 110 on a 100 buy in. He always buys in for 100. Doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the shed, but looks may be deceiving as I know he is there almost every night. Nerdy type guy. The cut off is a big burly biker guy. This guy is your classic LAG. He is on buy in number 2 sitting with 330. He is in nearly every hand and particularly from late position seems to be calling with everything including pure junk. He has stated earlier that his standard pre flop raise is 27 or 67 because 1967 was the year he was born. MP heard him say that and has proudly declared that he will bet 67 as his raise next time he is in a hand. The CO is high as well as he has recently stepped outside to "have a toot" with one other player at the table. Hero is on the button with 350. Heroes image is tight and CO has called hero nitty and has bugged him on every orbit to do his standard 5 dollar straddle.

Action folds around to MP who proudly declares 67 $ bet. CO calls . Hero looks down at 4 4 . Call, raise or fold?

As an aside, is this stuff standard at most casinos? It seems at our local casino 5 dollar straddles happen on 70 percent of flops and the standard pre flop raise is anywhere from 12 to 20 dollars. People are loose, loose, loose. No uncommon to have 5 people in pre flop on a 15 dollar raise at 1/2??? I play mostly on line and home games.

 

[detroitdad]

I fold.

 

[jbutler]

Straddle depends on local rules. Our straddles max at 2x the BB, so they would be $4 in a $1/2 NL game. But yes, otherwise what you describe is absolutely standard for low stakes NL and that's also why $1/2 - and sometimes $2/5 - is more of a crapshoot than a higher game because people raise larger relative to the blinds and the stacks are much shallower relative to both the blinds and the standard opening raise size.

As to whether you should set mine here, absolutely not. Bart Hanson (semi-)famously used to advise that in order to set mine, effective stacks should be 10x the opening raise. He later amended to state that he believed the proper multiple is actually 15x effective stacks. In either case, his point is that set mining should be directly related to the odds you're getting of: (1) flopping a set; and (2) getting paid off by a better hand when you do.

You're going to flop a set 12% of the time, so that's easy to figure, but you've also got to account for the many times you'll flop a set and you don't get the proper return on your investment in the pot. In my opinion, even 15x is probably a bit liberal, but the numbers are less about hard and fast rules and more about orienting you toward the relevant considerations and alerting you to watch for large raise sizes relative to effective stacks.

Of course, in addition to the above considerations, if you're willing to turn you pocket pairs into bluffs when you don't flop a set, you can call with shallower stacks. But don't overestimate the number of times you think you'll be willing to do this. Bluffing is not where the money is to be made at $1/2.

So all that said, I would advise following the 15x rule unless you have a good reason to deviate based on gameflow or villain tendencies.

FWIW Hanson at one point also quantified the effective stack needed to call preflop with suited connectors at 20x and later revised it to 30x. I think that's about right as well.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero can not profitably set mine facing a $67 raise from a $110 stack. I like to see 15x+ potential before deciding to set mine (less needed if there is going to be a lot of direct odds money in the pot). So Hero needs to have effective stacks something like $1,000+ to flat $67 hoping to flop a set.

If Hero is heads up vs this villain, Hero should adopt a short stacked strategy. Hero will be playing top pair hands hard. Often this means going all-in preflop.

Note that Hero is caught between a rock and hard place between a "wildly*" betting short stacks and deeper stacks left in the hand. This is going to lead to awkward situations like the hand under discussion.

* Don't be quick to judge MP as a poor player. There are good reasons to buy in short - even a +EV player might choose to do this. I wouldn't be shocked to see the $67 raise is backed up with a top 10% hand with the whole table banter getting the LAGtard ready to pay off with junk. Do not assume the posturing means what the guy implies it means without proof.

 

[BGinGA]

Fold or shove. Not calling $67.

 

[keshaldra]

Easiest fold in the world. If he's raising like this that frequently, you're better off waiting until you have a better hand to call him with.

As far as your experience? Yes, it's absolutely standard in live poker. Family pots after 10x raises aren't unheard of at all.

 

[jbutler]

So all that said, I would advise following the 15x rule unless you have a good reason to deviate based on gameflow or villain tendencies.

Apologies for the narcissism involved in quoting myself, but another thought I should have included here: the 15x rule goes straight out the window when you're dealing with a LAG with any real skill.

The assumption you're making when you're calling is that the villain has a hand that could potentially allow him to pay off 15x his opening raise. Good LAGs do not rate to often have such a hand. They're raising a lot with junk, middling cards, suited aces, etc., in addition to their "real" hands. So be aware that if you're getting involved with a player who's raising 30%+ of hands, that means he's got the top 30% of his range here and that range will include a lot of hands that he will relinquish immediately if he catches on that you want to play for stacks or anything close to it.

Most reliable advice: the 15x rule is solid strategy against a TAG, but should not be relied upon so fully when facing preflop raises from a LAG or even just a fish.

 

[detroitdad]

Easiest fold in the world. If he's raising like this that frequently, you're better off waiting until you have a better hand to call him with.

As far as your experience? Yes, it's absolutely standard in live poker. Family pots after 10x raises aren't unheard of at all.

This^^^^

first time I ever played 1/2 at a casino I take a seat in the BB position. First to act makes it 15 bucks. The entire table calls. I look down at pocket aces and shove. A middle position player was my only caller (he had me covered). He rolled over a small pair. My aces held up and I scooped a nice pot. I was like, holy shit. What have I gotten myself into lol.

 

[joker80]

Results:

Hero folded pre flop.

Flop came 4,5, 6 rainbow. MP shoved his remaining 30 (He must have been more like 95 pre flop rather than 110, because it was definitely 30 post flop) CO called. Turn was a 10. River was a 2. MP showed A 9 off suit, CO showed K 3 of hearts for the win.

I am glad I folded pre flop because there was no way the CO was folding an open ended straight draw. I also knew the odds were not correct for a call, but I was not 100 percent sure of what the numbers should be. I had heard 8 :1 before but the 10-15 X theory I had not heard before.

I also don't know why MP is effectively going all in with such a weak holding.

 

[DrStrange]

MP's hand isn't that weak, though weaker than I'd be playing 50bb deep. I note that he got exactly the situation he wanted - heads up with the LAGtard playing A9o vs K3s. Roughly 60/40 in his favor. However MP ran a serious RIO risk fading the rest of the field waking up with a hand they would play which almost always is better than A9o.

Still, I think MP could have an idea what he is trying to do based on one data point. Worth watching for further evidence anyway. His execution might be a little off even if the concept is sound.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm folding 44 there all day. As others have said, nowhere near enough implied odds to set-mine, and it's not a strong enough hand to make any big moves.

In a game where people are making absurdly large preflop raises, speculative hands lose value quickly. You have to hang back and wait for the goods.

 

[joker80]

However MP ran a serious RIO risk fading the rest of the field waking up with a hand they would play which almost always is better than A9o.

.

I guess that's what I meant by weak. No doubt he will have Mr 1967 beat, but if he is called by anyone else he is behind.

 

[BGinGA]

Fold or shove. Not calling $67.

Fold or shove. Folding costs you nothing (but nothing gained, either). Shoving (MP calls, obv) gets you heads-up in a slight favorite coin flip with less than 50% of the pot invested (counting cut-off's $67 call). No way big burly biker calls off his entire stack here.

 

[PhilLaFond]

Do high hand and/or bad beat jackpots change anyone's math when set mining? Just curious. Not really relevant to the OP scenario, as I think folding is almost automatic to such a large raise, but thought jackpots might add a different element to the thought process.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Do high hand and/or bad beat jackpots change anyone's math when set mining? Just curious. Not really relevant to the OP scenario, as I think folding is almost automatic to such a large raise, but thought jackpots might add a different element to the thought process.

Just for example, where I am, the qualifier for the hold'em BBJ is quads of any kind beaten by quads or a straight flush. Both players' hole cards must both play toward the quads or SF (e.g., must be pair in hand and pair on board, or a suited connector/gapper that uses both cards to make the best SF).

The probability of such an event is astronomically low. Even with the BBJ at almost $300K in a room about an hour from me, it's really not worth the extra travel time and gas money just to play there—never mind adjusting my hand selection to chase the jackpot.

Of course, YMMV with other rooms that have different qualifiers or entirely different promotions, but my experience is that BBJs are usually so improbable that they shouldn't affect your preflop hand selection.

 

[joker80]

Qualifier where I am is Aces full of 10s or better beaten and you must use both your hole cards in both hands. So this wouldn't really apply unless you had pocket 10s or higher or A 10 or higher .

EDIT - I wrote this and then thought about quads over quads..... so I don't know....such a rare occurrence

 

[bergs]

As to whether you should set mine here, absolutely not. Bart Hanson (semi-)famously used to advise that in order to set mine, effective stacks should be 10x the opening raise. He later amended to state that he believed the proper multiple is actually 15x effective stacks. I

FWIW Hanson at one point also quantified the effective stack needed to call preflop with suited connectors at 20x and later revised it to 30x. I think that's about right as well.

FWIW, Bart Hanson is a fucking nitball.

 

[Psypher1000]

Do high hand and/or bad beat jackpots change anyone's math when set mining?

Depends. When I'm playing $2/$4 and I'm sittin' on any pair, and there's quads high hand jackpot (South Point, I'm lookin' at you, here) I'll call almost anything to see the flop. Even with a raise or two, bettin' $4-$6 to possibly land $200-$300 + the pot? Sure, let's gambool.

 

[jbutler]

FWIW, Bart Hanson is a fucking nitball.

As much money as you've made lifetime bet-folding I know you are a devotee.

 

[bergs]

As much money as you've made lifetime bet-folding I know you are a devotee.

How can I make money bet-folding? Am I betting, folding, and then grabbing my opponents rack and running for the door?

 

[jbutler]

How can I make money bet-folding? Am I betting, folding, and then grabbing my opponents rack and running for the door?

More a jog than a run prob.

 

[bergs]

Really it's a plodding.

 

[ushallnotraise]

Fold. The very concept of set mining is to get in the hand cheap in a multi-way pot in order to extract value. This is the opposite of that.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Insta fold. Not even close.