Solver hates my turn & river play - thoughts? (1 Viewer)

[Senzrock]

(edit: I think I like a jam here on the river check-raise)

 

[Eriks]

The 4x open on the btn suggests that villain’s play is probably suboptimal in general. And it’s 120bbs effective sb vs btn. My only concern is getting all the money in.

On the river he could have 66/J9 and even QQ-AA that he was ”trapping with” and will never fold. Slam dunk shove on the river imo. If he has JJ, so be it.

I might 3-bet the turn but as played I’d probably check/raise the river.

 

[boltonguy]

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. Hero just called the river raise and lost value to a hand that very likely would have called a shove:

 

[Frogzilla]

Don’t think this is at all a good time to whip out a solver. You have a weird range. Your opponent won’t know that’s your range and will not be playing anywhere close. He doesn’t know that Ace high has no showdown value as it’s below the bottom of your range. He doesn’t know you have 10% of your range is sets. He’s not playing the same hand the solver is. Also maybe I’m reading wrong but don’t think the mix is the best judge of how much a solver likes/dislikes a play. 100%/0% but the EV difference is small means they are similar value.

Pre sure. Hate flatting out of SB but can’t be that bad with 99. 100% with you on the thought process against the size.

Flop I like check raise. Board isn’t insane to have a donk range on, and middle set should be in that range, but check raise seems best route. The preflop sizing being bigger signals aggression which is more evidence for check raise.


Turn yea like lead, I’d probably have gone 3/4. You gave the solver an insane nut advantage and the solver went HAM, not surprised to see overbet.

Turn opponent minraise…I have no idea. Call maybe. Or raise maybe? Dunno. Maybe mix? I do like to randomize when I have legitimately no idea what to do. Not saying that the call or raise options are close, one could be vastly superior, if anyone has strong sense which one is best against this funky line that’d be interesting to read.

River is to me the most interesting spot. Does he have more missed draws that are mandatory bluffs, or was he trying to get a cheap river with weak SDV that did that minraise line. If you do settle on bet (I’m leaning bet)…it should certainly be for a big size like pot.

 

[JMC9389]

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. Hero just called the river raise and lost value to a hand that very likely would have called a shove:

View attachment 1099847

Called it!

 

[boltonguy]

Called it!

I didnt even think of 66 at the time because of the pre-flop raise size.
Gotta work on my hand reading.

 

[Mojo1312]

Sounds like you would be easy to play against in that case lol - did you see my other comments? Are you leading here with a broader range than just the nuts or just strong hands and hoping no one notices? I guess it is Blitz poker but your comment doesn't seem limited to the format?

The other hand that beats us here that no one has pointed out is pocket threes.

In response to your questions. It is limited to the situation at hand. We called a 4x button pre-flop raise from the SB early in the game. We go to the flop heads up and flop middle set. Why would we be worried about balancing? I am going to seize the opportunity find out who's who by betting half pot. Maybe the Villain calls, maybe he folds. Either way, I am gaining information for future play.

I am betting pot on the turn and calling any raise. My goal is to get all of my chips in on the river. A club may slow me down, but not likely giving my bet sizing on the turn. But who am I to give advice having spent zero time studying the art of the game or using a HUD? I don't even have any micro-stakes experience.

On second thought, don't pay any attention to my posts. I am horrible. If it wasn't for luck, I would lose every time.

 

[JMC9389]

I didnt even think of 66 at the time because of the pre-flop raise size.
Gotta work on my hand reading.

I wouldn't have put them on that exact hand until at least the river. Took that long for me to piece it together. The min raise on the turn was a tell that they liked that card a lot, whether it brought in a set, two pair, or a straight draw. Bluffs either raise larger or just call hoping for a good river to continue to tell their story.

As for the preflop sizing, that's what I'd do too. In position, I'd lead out large to try to take it down right then and there or hope to get heads up and see a flop and get information on the out of position player and go from there.

 

[boltonguy]

The other hand that beats us here that no one has pointed out is pocket threes.

Don remember if I thought of that at the time but certainly losing to JJ and 33 would have gone into my decision to just call the river raise and not jam.
Maybe I'm too scared ... I have jammed into the nuts far too often and its not great for my bankroll

 

[Mojo1312]

Don remember if I thought of that at the time but certainly losing to JJ and 33 would have gone into my decision to just call the river raise and not jam.
Maybe I'm too scared ... I have jammed into the nuts far too often and its not great for my bankroll

Sometimes you need to give variance a hug.

 

[boltonguy]

Oh I've hugged it plenty, trust me.

 

[Frogzilla]

Don remember if I thought of that at the time but certainly losing to JJ and 33 would have gone into my decision to just call the river raise and not jam.
Maybe I'm too scared ... I have jammed into the nuts far too often and its not great for my bankroll

I think I’d eat my shirt if someone checked back bottom set on that board

Such a weird (and bad!) play

Spews happen but that’s unusual

 

[BukNaked36]

Interesting hand.

I think the turn was go time - Raise to 30, call a shove. Villain could easily think we're drawing - especially some big combo draw possibilities. Villain could have over pairs or big draw himself.

As others have said, V shows JJ is a just a cooler and not something I worry about unless I know V is a total NIT.

 

[Senzrock]

Villain could *easily* have AA/KK/QQ/AJ/KJ but also a hand like 66 that raises pre, checks flop and then smashes the turn. We have to figure out how to get value here.

Hand reading game so STRONG lol

 

[Senzrock]

The other hand that beats us here that no one has pointed out is pocket threes.

In response to your questions. It is limited to the situation at hand. We called a 4x button pre-flop raise from the SB early in the game. We go to the flop heads up and flop middle set. Why would we be worried about balancing? I am going to seize the opportunity find out who's who by betting half pot. Maybe the Villain calls, maybe he folds. Either way, I am gaining information for future play.

I am betting pot on the turn and calling any raise. My goal is to get all of my chips in on the river. A club may slow me down, but not likely giving my bet sizing on the turn. But who am I to give advice having spent zero time studying the art of the game or using a HUD? I don't even have any micro-stakes experience.

On second thought, don't pay any attention to my posts. I am horrible. If it wasn't for luck, I would lose every time.

Well that's why we're here right? To try and improve our play!

Important thing is just to be open minded and try to think through different scenarios. I think it might be helpful to your game to re-read some of my earlier comments and try to incorporate a more balanced approach into your game. We want to move from thinking just about our specific hand in this one specific spot to "what would our range of hands do in this kind of situation broadly speaking." The reason is that if we always play a certain kind of hand in a certain kind of way then players at the table will fairly easily pick up on the fact that when you are betting "you always have it." That read is costing you *much money* at any regular home game or casino you play.

 

[Mojo1312]

Don't disagree with the statement "The reason is that if we always play a certain kind of hand in a certain kind of way then players at the table will fairly easily pick up on the fact that when you are betting you always have it."

But I would also submit it is +ev to return the Villain's aggression in this spot where neither player has had the time to establish how the other plays. Especially considering the flop and that action folded around to the button. I would include suited connectors as part of our Villain's range.

 

[DrStrange]

There is a world of difference in on-line micro stakes poker vs live small stakes games. There is often good reason to think about balancing and solving for perfection in on-line games. You can't hide from the observant HUDs.

But live poker vs the typical cast of characters? Exploit them relentlessly. Shoot, I will tell the LAGs what my plan is when I sit down and even then it works pretty well.

I expect wide divergence between optimal play in on-line micro stakes and live home games.

I would say Hero might have overextended his villain read based on a trivial 17 hand sample size.

 

[Nerxa]

I'm the type of player that uses big sizing on turns and rivers. I see no reason to bet less than pottish when flop checks. These players will call what ever amount if they want to call their draws, giving them 3 to 1 is bad, charge them more