Top set in PLO cash game. (1 Viewer)

[Rhodeman77]

Playing at the casino last night and was moved to the main game about an hour ago. I’m playing super tight as my $1k stack is very small for this game.

Hero has only played 1 hand since being moved to the table, limping AAxx UTG and 4 bet potting preflop to take the pot down.

In this hand Hero is on the button with just over a $1k

There is a $15 straddle from UTG on a $455 stack.

There are 3 callers of the $15 when it gets to me and I call too with

Blinds fold and it to the straddle who makes it $95 to go.

All 3 of the limpers of the straddle call and so do I.

Flop comes and UTG goes all in for $360

The first limper calls, the next one folds and the third one calls as well. Both callers have Hero covered by a lot.

Pot is now $1555 or so.

What do we do with top set here?

Player reads:

UTG— Frank is a reg almost always at the casino when I’m there. Short buys over and over until he goes broke or wins a big multi-way pot and then usually still goes broke.

He can have any flush, or set here, but since we have top set and that he raised his straddle so big I figure him for a flush.

First caller— semi regular. Played with him for a while at the feeder table. He called off very light in a couple of big pots looking to get lucky and he did twice going runner runner!! Since then he seems to have calmed down and is playing a little tighter/better. His range here is wide I assume! Pretty much anything but the nut flush I think since he wouldn’t want to give a hand like a set a good price to call. So again any flush is likely since I have top set, but middle set is possible.

Second caller—- decent older grinder type (I was most shocked by his call). Good player, haven’t seen him do anything crazy the times I have played at the same table as him.
Figuring K or Q high flush here???

 

[Kain8]

If you cold call and you miss boating up on the turn, the pot is going to be wayyyy too large for you to fold to a turn bet that'll put you all-in.

You could get a massive win if you boat up, while at the same time, not risking that much to do so relatively speaking from a stack perspective.

You're undoubtedly behind UTG with a flush, but the prospect of winning a sizable side pot and missing out on the main pot has some upside too if the two big stacks are calling with wraps, top two pair, etc.

I say rip it in and hope to have them both call you for the chance at a $3,000+ pot. Even if you don't pair the board, your sidepot action should be profitable in this spot too.

 

[Shaggy]

PLO novice here, so take this with a grain of salt... following for the more experienced responses.

Looking like you need about 6:1 of your full house draw. You are getting an immediate 4:1 and close the action. Sounds like a call is likely good. How about a jam. If my outs/odds math holds up... you have 7 outs on the turn=> 14% plus you pick up 3 outs for the river (assuming turn doesn't pair board)... so 10 outs =>20%

34% to make hand by the river... this is without fold equity... which sounds small.

Sounds like a call to me.

 

[WedgeRock]

7 outs going in to the turn is 28% (7x4); if you miss, your odds going in to the river are about 22% (10x2.2).

If my math is correct, the chance of missing both turn and river is 64%. And not all of your outs are clean (actually, only the 9 is clean).

I would venture to say top set is not good here. If second caller is not in the pot, you may make a little against the first caller, but that's not the case.

So it come down to one thing...

 

[Shaggy]

7 outs going in to the turn is 28% (7x4);

This is if you get all-in on the turn... Hero still has ~$600 behind.

 

[mipevi]

Get your chips in the middle as fast as you can. Embrace the variance.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero should jam. Be prepared for variance.

He has little to no fold equity because he has no significant money to bet. Hero owes $360 with just over $900 left in his stack. This works out to a $650 raise into a $1,900+ pot.

Hero is ~35% to win the pot in a vacuum. Must be some chance greater than random that hero is facing middle/bottom set which costs him an extra out or two. [ randomly the 12 cards in three villain hands hold something like three of hero's outs ] Still, Hero seems like he is getting paid well enough to get his stack in play.

Good luck! It will be needed -=- DrStrange

 

[Beakertwang]

If someone happens to be holding 77 or 22, you have fewer outs to catch a boat. And if overpairs with hearts are possible, then you’d have to catch one of your boat cards and avoid the bigger full house.

I’m behind. Too many ways to lose, slim chance to win. I’d fold.

 

[Shaggy]

@DrStrange , with little to no fold equity, what is the benefit of jamming? Seems to me hero can call flop and fold turn facing a bet that puts him all in. On turn (pre-river) he is getting ~4.5:1 still needing 6:1... that's if his outs are clean. It might be possible that it checks through on the turn... and he gets a free river.

 

[WedgeRock]

I’m behind.

Agreed.

Too many ways to lose,

Agreed.

slim chance to win.

Agreed.

I’d fold.

What?! You don't play PLO because you fear variance! Math says jam and hold on tight! He'll, @DrStrange says jam and hold on tight! That's good enough for me.

(Plus, I sense a humble brag, meaning @Rhodeman77 is gonna take down a big pot!)

 

[Beakertwang]

What?! You don't play PLO because you fear variance! Math says jam and hold on tight! He'll, @DrStrange says jam and hold on tight! That's good enough for me.

(Plus, I sense a humble brag, meaning @Rhodeman77 is gonna take down a big pot!)

Seriously, please help me understand. Hero could keep 90% of his stack and wait for a better moment, or risk all of it for maybe a 30% chance of tripling up. I’m inexperienced at PLO, for sure, but it seems like the math is not in hero’s favor.

But you’re probably right about him taking down the pot.

 

[krafticus]

I'm still new to the PLO world, but I would think that jamming would be your best chance of winning a large pot. It could get small sets to fold, and put you heads up against the A high flush. I would assume if you call the flop bet, and the board pairs the turn, no more money goes into the pot, and you win a smaller pot. Of course, I too am a PLOnoob, and am not sure what the correct play here is.

mark

 

[detroitdad]

I haven't sounded off yet because I honestly don't know. I've never played where I have 1k in my stack. I'm sure I would be horribly uncomfortable making the decision to shove/call.

If the 1k didn't matter, and I was "trying" to play solid poker. Then I still am not sure what I would do. I think I'm folding in this spot.

 

[WedgeRock]

Seriously, please help me understand. Hero could keep 90% of his stack and wait for a better moment, or risk all of it for maybe a 30% chance of tripling up. I’m inexperienced at PLO, for sure, but it seems like the math is not in hero’s favor.

But you’re probably right about him taking down the pot.

@Shaggy makes an argument for a call rather than a shove. I think 1.) that makes you exploitable if the board doesn't pair and 2.) leaves money on the table if it does (because Caller 1 and Caller 2 can fold flushes to a paired board).

But if you are 36% to hit your boat/quads (or 30% if you figure two of your outs are in other people's hand), you are risking $1000 to win $3500. Not a super large margin, but worth playing. If you win that flip three times out of ten (30%) you are +$10,500 (or plus $7500 not counting your $1000 stack) less 7x$1000 for the times you lose it. That's a net of $500 to the good.

Jam > call > fold IMO.

 

[Beakertwang]

@Shaggy makes an argument for a call rather than a shove. I think 1.) that makes you exploitable if the board doesn't pair and 2.) leaves money on the table if it does (because Caller 1 and Caller 2 can fold flushes to a paired board).

But if you are 36% to hit your boat/quads (or 30% if you figure two of your outs are in other people's hand), you are risking $1000 to win $3500. Not a super large margin, but worth playing. If you win that flip three times out of ten (30%) you are +$10,500 (or plus $7500 not counting your $1000 stack) less 7x$1000 for the times you lose it. That's a net of $500 to the good.

Jam > call > fold IMO.

I see that. Thanks. I still would be doubtful we’re at 30%, but it makes sense.

 

[WedgeRock]

I still would be doubtful we’re at 30%

Really? I don't see many hands limp-calling a PF raise to 9xBB (6xStraddle) that have a seven or a deuce... That's why I discounted only two outs...

 

[Geremie]

It would suck to be up against:

V1: Ah Kh 7x 7x
V2: 10h 8h 2x 2x

Both villains wouldn’t be folding

 

[Rhodeman77]

I see that. Thanks. I still would be doubtful we’re at 30%, but it makes sense.

We definitely have over 35% equity!!

Does seeing the actual hands change how you would play the hand? Do you embrace the variance?

 

[DrStrange]

@Shaggy Hero doesn't have much fold equity on the flop. But he surely has more < unwanted> fold equity on the turn after the board pairs. Maybe not much, maybe significant - but hero waiting till he hits to bet will give villains a chance to get away.

Hero has a seven out draw on the turn followed by a ten out draw on the river if he misses the turn. In other words, Hero get s 40% of his equity from the turn draw followed by 60% of his equity on the river.

The notion of getting a free river card is interesting. That could be a reasonable way to aim for lower variance, though perhaps at a cost. Jamming makes a side pot of $650 x 3 = $1,950. X 35% - $650 is +$32EV +$32 is no sure thing, there is some chance someone else is chasing a full house. On the other hand, Hero has some implied odds by betting if/when he hits his full house.

After some thought I am going to change my opinion. Calling, hoping for a free card and only betting when a hand is made is a better line than jamming all in on the flop. It will be ouchy is someone jams the turn, but Hero has position and a good reason to hope for a free card. I think the math is close, but the variance is substantially lower.



I see several discussion about outs in other people's hands. Hero is looking for seven turn outs and (if needed ) ten river outs. We know these outs are somewhere - in the stub, burn pile, mucks or live hands. We know they are not in hero's four card hand nor in the three card board. there are 45 cards which could be outs, 12 of which are in villain hands. It is already built into the math that 12/45 = 27% of the outs are in the villians' hands. That is two or three of Hero's outs dead to him and already built into the math.

Lets note that we have four way action on this hand. This does not seem remarkable to me for an Omaha table. I would not make inferences about low cards not being in these hands. Omaha players commonly play loose and play all sorts of junky hands. I wouldn't do that, but many players would.

On balance, I think the argument for villains holding an extra out beyond what random chance assumes still seems stronger that not. That means Hero might have one fewer out than expected - his 35% equity might be more like 31%. Might - could be better could be worse - one lost out is just an educated guess.

I do not worry about a villain hitting a runner-runner better full house. I do not worry about a villain with a straight flush redraw if Hero fills up. Not that these things are impossible. But they are unlikely - first the risk might not even be in play this hand and then the draws are difficult to make. In the end, the risk is likely less than one percent and difficult to evaluate.

 

[Rhodeman77]

@DrStrange if we go with the call hoping for a free card on the turn, do we ever fold if it jammed by either villain in front of us?

 

[Beakertwang]

We definitely have over 35% equity!!

View attachment 251302

Does seeing the actual hands change how you would play the hand? Do you embrace the variance?

No, because variance means the Jh is definitely coming!

Honestly, I’m a total noob to this line of thinking, so I’ll happily learn from others who have a great handle on the game, such as yourself and the doctor. I’m just taking it all in, asking inane questions, and making ill-informed comments.

 

[DrStrange]

Not folding - snap calling, but not really happy. Hero holds ~23% equity ( assume a brick on the turn, leaving a ten out draw on the river ) of a $3,865 pot. That is worth ~$880. Hero owes $650 to call a jam. Lots of positive expected value in the main pot to cover the negative equity in the side pot..

PS I am folding the river unimproved. No way top set wins a multiway showdown or even a side pot. It is especially easy to say this knowing Hero is 4th place hand unimproved.

 

[WedgeRock]

Not folding - snap calling, but not really happy.

If you are putting all the chips in the middle anyway, then the only time you save your stack is if everyone misses and no one gets frisky (a SF card could be a scare card that could still save your stack, but are you going to give any villain credit for two exact cards?). How often are we gonna see a river brick get checked around with a pot this size?

It might be lower variance, but I'm okay jamming (it's @Rhodeman77's money, not mine) and possibly getting some fold equity (others already contemplated that hero should fold here, so I wouldn't say hero's fold equity is zero (but pretty close)). If all the money is going in anyway, well, giddy up.

 

[Beakertwang]

Give some likes, please. I worked hard on this.

 

[WedgeRock]

Give some likes, please.

RIP Rowdy Roddy Piper.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I think the problem with calling is it gives away exactly what Hero has (a set) and eliminates the possibility we have the nut flush.

So if there is any chance either Villian can get away from their hand if we fill up then I’d rather jam it in now and take my chances.

Plus since I play with many of these guys on a regular basis I don’t want to become predictable and exploitable as @WedgeRock already mentioned. If they don’t know if I’m shoving with the nut flush or top set then I will get paid off more often in the future with both hands.

 

[OrionShee]

Soooo......what actually happened?

 

[JustinInMN]

Top set in PLO? You mean a full house draw

 

[JustinInMN]

Boy I think this is close to a fold or a call. The good news is you close the action. And the pot is laying 5:1 in bout a 6:1 spot on the next card assuming all 7 outs are live, so maybe close enough to peel one.

If sets or two pairs are likely holdings in opponents that really tips this to a fold. You have only 4 outs if someone has 77.

A jam seems optimistic with only two players left the side pot lays 2-1 at best and you still may have to outdraw a flush in the side pot.

Does seeing the actual hands change how you would play the hand? Do you embrace the variance?

If I can see all the full house outs are live and clean I feel better about a jam. But I think this just shows you were in about a best case scenario here.

 

[AWenger]

I'm on the fence with this one.

my $1k stack is very small for this game

Just adjusting to the stakes I play, when I play PLO, (usually $2/$2 or $1/$2/(5)), I plan on having up to 4 to 5 buy-ins ($200-$300 each), and if it's an action game, I'm expecting to go all-in with premium hands & draws, and also expect to lose some and have to rebuy several times. So, in this example, if the $1000 stack, to you, represents closer to 1 buy-in, (out of many), I'm fine with embracing the variance and would probably be OK with a shove or call here. Win and triple up, or lose and rebuy.

Otherwise, if my $1000 stack represents closer to 2-3 buy-ins in the game, I'm probably folding, and waiting for a better spot. Hashtag #I'm with Beakertwang.

Hero could keep 90% of his stack and wait for a better moment, or risk all of it for maybe a 30% chance of tripling up. I’m inexperienced at PLO, for sure, but it seems like the math is not in hero’s favor.

This was one of my thoughts exactly.

UTG— Frank is a reg almost always at the casino when I’m there. Short buys over and over until he goes broke or wins a big multi-way pot and then usually still goes broke.

If he's staying to play for a while, is this an argument for folding?

Flop comes and UTG goes all in for $360
The first limper calls, the next one folds and the third one calls as well. Both callers have Hero covered by a lot.

Are any of these players playing hands like JT97 or T976, or AT97, or 8775? If so, are any of them folding hands with middle set, top 2 pair, or top 2 and a flush on this board? I would assume there's a good chance that some of your outs are in at least one of the 3 callers hands. How it changes the %, I'm not too sure.