Top set in PLO cash game. (2 Viewers)

[Beakertwang]

We definitely have over 35% equity!!

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Does seeing the actual hands change how you would play the hand? Do you embrace the variance?

Let me get a little more info before I come up with additional wrong ideas.

Am I correct in assuming that in the scenario above, you’re on the button, and post-flop action starts with the nut flush?

 

[Rhodeman77]

Let me get a little more info before I come up with additional wrong ideas.

Am I correct in assuming that in the scenario above, you’re on the button, and post-flop action starts with the nut flush?

Correct. Adtioned started with Frank UTG and holding the nuts.

There is another important idea that nobody mentioned. Both of the other Villains are much deeper than Hero, about $3k each to start the hand.

If I jam, my bet may not create much fold equity itself, but Villian 1 now has to worry Villain 2 possibly potting it and making him play for stacks.

And do I want either one to fold? If I have to boat up no matter what to win so I want as many people in the hand as possible. Keeping another flush in the hand doesn’t hurt my equity at all.

Thoughts on this @WedgeRock, @DrStrange @JustinInMN

 

[DrStrange]

Hero needs as many people in the pot as will pay to play. More important in the side pot due to a lack of dead money there.

I would love to know what the guy holding the second nut thinks of the situation. He has to suspect he is drawing dead in a four way pot. Being able to fold a non-nut hand with no redraws is essential to playing deep stacked Omaha.

Re opening the betting may not be in Hero's best interest. We already know that the side pot is about breakeven on a three way pot. Jamming for $650 and getting a fold is $200 negative EV in the side pot. I do appreciate the meta game considerations, but Hero need not always raise with sets to conceal his flushes/straights. He only needs to do it sometimes - enough to leave doubt in people's minds.

I still think call > jam > fold

 

[JustinInMN]

And do I want either one to fold? If I have to boat up no matter what to win so I want as many people in the hand as possible. Keeping another flush in the hand doesn’t hurt my equity at all.

Yeah, you really don't want anyone to fold to your jam. If 35% equity is where you sit, and I think your opponents holding 3 different flushes and 1 full house blocker really is your best case scenario. If you jam and one opponent finds a fold you are kind of overcharging yourself here.

I think that's why I prefer the flat in general. Especially against a pay off wizard, you aren't giving away too much when you improve and you are giving yourself ba chance to draw somewhat cheaply with decent implied odds.

 

[Beakertwang]

Correct. Adtioned started with Frank UTG and holding the nuts.

There is another important idea that nobody mentioned. Both of the other Villains are much deeper than Hero, about $3k each to start the hand.

If I jam, my bet may not create much fold equity itself, but Villian 1 now has to worry Villain 2 possibly potting it and making him play for stacks.

And do I want either one to fold? If I have to boat up no matter what to win so I want as many people in the hand as possible. Keeping another flush in the hand doesn’t hurt my equity at all.

Thoughts on this @WedgeRock, @DrStrange @JustinInMN

So this is where my thinking is incorrect:

I've never played live cash PLO, at any level. I would assume at 5/10 PLO, people would have some sense. If I'm V2, I would not be calling here with 5th nut flush with 2 to act behind (although I don't fault him for wanting to chase the straight flush, even though I know that's a bad idea), and as V3, I definitely would not be calling with 2nd nut flush. So if I'm the hero, I'm thinking there's a nut flush, and at least one other set, which mean two of my outs are gone. Maybe I'm dumb, but I think both of those guys need to be out of the hand.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Results:

I went with a call, I didn’t want to reopen the betting and chance on of them folding.

Turn is the a 6 changing nothing. First Villian bets $600 and second Villian pots it. I call for less and Villian 1 shows his hand and makes a crying fold.

River is a 10 and I miss my boat draw.

Frank wins the main pot with the Ace high flush and the King high flush takes down almost as big side pot.

It was 2am at that point and I had work this morning so I called it a night.

 

[WedgeRock]

I hadn't considered flatting to keep both V2 and V3 in the hand, though I agree, you don't want either to fold.

Gg, shitty run at the end. I'm going broke there every time. Then again, I am not good at poker.

 

[JustinInMN]

@Rhodeman77 ,

Out of curiosity, what if guy with instead had

I think the actual scenario was about your best case, I think if you change the one hand, you have a worst case.

 

[Rhodeman77]

@Rhodeman77 ,

Out of curiosity, what if guy with instead had

I think the actual scenario was about your best case, I think if you change the one hand, you have a worst case.

It would suck because it eats up 2 of my outs, but he isn’t winning either and is folding to the turn shove with both hands. This is where having a short stack is good, it makes it much easier to get my stack in. While 10 8 7 7hh is a good hand, with his stack he can’t get to showdown with it.

 

[JustinInMN]

So I got on my computer to run this. If you change that one hand, hero equity drops to about 21% overall.

Slightly worse case changing the hand to hero's left.

So again, the immediate odds on the flop were 360 to gain 1555, about 4.3-1. Assuming hero started with 1k, he now has 545 behind. So by shoving, it's about 905 to gain 2645 (what's in the pot and assuming two covering players also call), about 2.92-1.

With two cards to come hero is somewhere between 11-35%. So for the call/shove line on the flop to be right, hero can pretty much never put villains on anything other than 3 flushes. If they have any other kind of "value" hand, hero's outs diminish very quickly and tip this to a fold. And this is omaha, no one is "drawing" on a suited board except to a full house or better. They either have the flush or they don't.

This might be the "fairest" calculation Assume one guy has the flush and the rest of the deck is random. Then hero is at 33%, this seems to make the call right and the shove possibly good as well (only in the circumstance where the calls are certain.)

I'm not nearly as good at ranging in Omaha as hold'em, but the answer lies in how often is hero close to 36% equity, and how often is it at 11% based on the lines the opponents took?

 

[JustinInMN]

It would suck because it eats up 2 of my outs, but he isn’t winning either and is folding to the turn shove with both hands

Correction, 3 outs. The case 7 is no longer a win for you in addition to the other two sevens being dealt out. The difference between 2/7 and 3/7 is pretty significant in this range of equity. You are now basically as dead as a guy drawing to a dry gutshot on the turn anyway. Safe to presume you will pick up 3 outs on many turns unless it makes someone else a set/two pair of course.

 

[Rhodeman77]

In that scenario the case 7 is not an out on the flop going into the turn. But once the K high flush shoves and he is forced to fold I now gain that out back.

If I have any other set but top set I instantly fold my hand and went with the assumption that being out of position with middle or bottom set not knowing if they make a full house if it would even be good that they would fold too. If everyone had folded to me I would have folded as well.

I went with my read that there were 3 flushes out there meaning at least 6 cards that aren’t pairing the board in those hands and more likely then that more boat outs are still in the deck.

Unfortunately even though I guessed correctly the outcome was not what I had hoped for!

 

[Beakertwang]

I need to learn to stop thinking like a tournament player.

 

[Beakertwang]

@Rhodeman77, I really expected you to say that you caught the turn, and the one-outer straight flush came on the river.

 

[JustinInMN]

I went with my read that there were 3 flushes out there meaning at least 6 cards that aren’t pairing the board in those hands and more likely then that more boat outs are still in the deck.

And if you're confident in that your line is probably good, alibiet high variance, obviously.

(I especially prefer the call to the jam because the chance of checking through the turn in position is a major coup for you. And frankly I'm surprised anyone shoved with a non-nut flush here. He's lucky his opponents had exactly the two hands he wants to call. Otherwise it seems like a disaster that both villains could fold here or only call with the nut flush.)

Also the board texture really diminishes two pair holding with you blocking 9-7 so heavily. Not many playable 7-2 except with a suited ace. I think I proposed the most likely alternatives for how the same players could have sets with flushes with minor tweaks to their hands. The question is how heavily to weigh those when you really are in a borderline spot.

 

[DrStrange]

Pot Limit Omaha is a bad game for people afraid of monsters under the bed. The "worst case" imaginable is often exceptionally bad. It is why the aggressive players can put so much pressure on the table, betting big draws as if they were the nuts instead. A player with a vivid imagination is going to be folding a lot of equity.

Don't misunderstand. If the betting gets big and multi-way, it is prudent to assume someone holds the nuts or near nuts in the case of top full house vs quads or ace high flush vs straight flush. But it is entirely possible the betting can also represent some truly amazing draws - which shouldn't be folded even if there is a "worst case" where Hero's equity comes up short.

 

[AWenger]

I need to learn to stop thinking like a tournament player.

In some spots, maybe. But if you're talking about how you were thinking of a fold in this hand, don't doubt yourself. I think there are times in a cash game, where some cash game players might be better suited to thinking of it like a tournament, and picking better spots.

If I'm V2, I would not be calling here with 5th nut flush with 2 to act behind (although I don't fault him for wanting to chase the straight flush, even though I know that's a bad idea), and as V3, I definitely would not be calling with 2nd nut flush

I think both of those guys need to be out of the hand.

I don't disagree, but after seeing the hands of the other villians, I don't think anyone can doubt @Rhodeman77's skill for table selection.

 

[Taghkanic]

Fold unless the table is a very strong group of PLO experts meaning you need to take some shots like this. If you are one if the better players you will surely find better spots to put your stack to use.